January 3rd, 2009 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Minnesota Timberwolves, 7-25
SRS: -6.50 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.9 (14th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 103.6 (24th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.6 (26th of 30)
Chicago Bulls, 14-19
SRS: -1.85 (19th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 94.0 (5th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 105.1 (21st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 108.9 (19th of 30)
<SBG>The Wolves are playing the back half of their third back-to-back since Christmas, a brutal schedule, to be sure. In each of the first games, the Wolves have won, including last night's tilt against Golden State. The back side, though has meant a loss. I'm thinking tonight will be more of the same.
Tonight will a chance to look at Derrick Rose, the first pick in the draft and one of the early candidates for rookie of the year. I've heard a lot about Rose, but I've not seen him play. I hope to catch more than a little of this game and see what the hush is about.
I didn't get a chance to see last night's game as I had a date with a couple of lovely women -- Lucy and Miss SBG. I had very little interest in last night after the Dallas debacle, but it turns out that the Wolves got the job done. More encouragingly, Kevin Love got 25 minutes and scored 19 points. I see McCan't got just 6 minutes with Mike Miller back. A sign of things to come? Who knows, but a girl can dream.</SBG>
January 2nd, 2009 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Golden State Warriors, 10-24
SRS: -5.76 (25th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 97.7 (2nd of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 106.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 112.7 (30th of 30)
Minnesota Timberwolves, 6-25
SRS: -6.71 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.6 (15th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 103.3 (24th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.7 (26th of 30)
<SBG>The Wolves entertain the Golden State Warriors tonight in their first game of 2009. The calendar says it's a new year, but we are plodding along in the same old season with the same old problems. The last game of 2008, a seven point loss to the Mavericks on the road doesn't sound all that bad, if all you know is that final score. But, knowing that the Wolves had a 29 point lead in this game makes one realize just what a stinker that one was.
It's really hard to be a fan of this club. It really is. They've got one player, BAJ, who is a legitimate above average player in this league. As a low post scorer, he's flat out awesome. He's got a whole arsenal of moves, he's got great footwork, and he always seems to be moving toward the basket. I can't think of a single player in club history better at scoring the basketball in the low block. So, there's that. But, beyond that, it takes some real straining to see much of anything that's positive.
I think it's worth going back and revisiting that bloodletting the other night in Dallas. John Hollinger summed it up best (sub. req.) by going to the numbers:
The final tally on Dallas' amazing comeback over Minnesota on Tuesday: 30 scores in 34 trips, not including a desperation heave at the end of the third quarter. Dallas went from trailing 70-41 to leading 105-98 by scoring 64 points on those 34 possessions, for an offensive efficiency rating of 188.2. It would have been even better had they not missed four free throws.
Perhaps the most amazing stat is how the Mavs were able to keep possession. Dallas had only one turnover in those 34 trips, and absolutely crushed Minnesota on the glass: The Mavs had nine offensive boards to just five defensive rips for the Wolves, and of those five two came on missed foul shots.
In other words, only three of the Mavs' 12 missed shots in that stretch cost them possession.
There going to be nights when shots don't drop. That's part of the game. But what happened in Dallas was that the Wolves played zero defense in the second half and they didn't rebound. That's not about shots not dropping, that's about effort. "Coach" McHale said after the game that he maybe should have called a timeout here or there, but he didn't want to stop his team from establishing "flow" or "pace". WTF-ever. This wasn't about pace or the amorphous flow. This was about manning up and defending their goal. The Wolves were just flat out not doing that. That's what really makes the Dallas loss inexcusable.
Tonight, the Wolves play a crappy Golden State Warriors team. I like Don Nelson, I really do. But, he's one part genius and one part mad. Sometimes, he fields teams like his Mavericks outfits that are just flat out fun to watch. Other times he gets fixations on players that no one else wants (like Manute Bol and Shawn Bradley -- so, if you are 7'6 but can't play, Nellie is your guy). He likes to play up tempo (2nd in pace) and we all know that McHale likes "pace" and "flow", so we should see an uptempo game. They lost in OKC on New Year's Eve and they are without Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette, so they are the type of club that the Wolves can beat. If Minnesota decides to play hard, they should beat them. But, as we've seen as recently as the last game that they played, Minnesota isn't always interested in playing hard. So, who knows.</SBG>
<GreekHouse>So the Dallas game was about the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen in the NBA. For the first 28 minutes or so, the Wolves looked like a defending NBA championship team playing the worst team in the league. They played well on both sides, they looked confident, and they played good D. Then for the rest of the game, it looked like they were the girl scouts, playing against an NBA team.
I thought Jim Pete had a good point about the Wolves play. In the first half, they seemed to be playing with a lot of confidence. Any time a shot opened up, nobody was afraid to take it. In the second half, after Dallas cut the lead from 29 to about 20, it seemed like nobody wanted to take a shot. The result was a lot of bad passes that resulted in turnovers and bad possessions. This was nothing compared what was going on at the defensive end however. As SBG pointed out, there basically was none. Players looked confused/lazy out there. And for some reason--despite Dallas's massive rebounding edge down the stretch--Kevin Love sat on the bench most of the time while Brian Cardinal played the final 16+ minutes of the game.
But on both ends of the floor, the theme was the same. It was like none of the Wolves players wanted to take responsibility for the atrocity that was occurring on the court. The responsibility is partly on the players, but largely on the coach as well. When you've got a 20+ point lead in the NBA, it doesn't take much to win the game. You don't have to play well, you don't even have to play average. You just have to make sure that you don't make too many mistakes and you will win easily. McHale didn't really take any timeouts and he didn't use his personnel well. The coach has to say "Look, our lead might not be as big as it was, but we still have a significant advantage. Let's forget about what happened in the last 5 minutes and get back to how we played in the first half". Now maybe he did say something like that at some point, but his team obviously wasn't listening. I know players can get emotional when they see a big lead start to slip away, so the coach needs to be the level headed one to remind them that "nothing is fucked, dude".
So tonight, the Wolves get to play another rather pathetic team. Much like they should have done in the Dallas game, they need to forget about what happened in the past and focus on what they're about to do. I think they can win this one.</GreekHouse>
January 1st, 2009 by SBG
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: Miss SBG
I know how to get a girl into bed.
This is a good thing.
Click here to continue reading post...
December 31st, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories: Featured Articles, MLB, Minnesota Twins
Tags: 2009, Aaron Miles, Brendan Harris, Casey Blake, Mark DeRosa, Minnesota Twins, Nick Punto, Replacement Level, UZR
per ESPN:
DeRosa has been traded to the Cleveland Indians for minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub. DeRosa will likely slide into Cleveland's opening at third base.
I'm sure this will irk fans who long for the Twins to do something and especially those who would like the Twins to add someone they've heard of before, but DeRosa wouldn't really be a significant upgrade.
In related infielding news, the Cubs signed Aaron Miles. Elsewhere, I've seen the total value of the contract listed at 2 years/$4.9M.
For these two infielders, some internal options, and other names we've heard this offseason, let's look at projected wOBA (as determined by Marcel the Monkey), and career OPS+.
.394 wOBA, 147 OPS+ -- A-Rod
.350 wOBA, 97 OPS+ -- DeRosa
.335 wOBA, 105 OPS+ -- Blake
.329 wOBA, 97 OPS+ -- Harris
.323 wOBA, 93 OPS+ -- Buscher
.308 wOBA, 77 OPS+ -- Miles
.299 wOBA, 74 OPS+ -- Punto
.290 WOBA, 67 OPS+ -- Cesar Izturis
DeRosa's a little younger than Blake, which is likely the main reason his projected wOBA is better than Blake's. DeRosa has been much better than his career averages over the last three years, which is likely the main reason that his projected wOBA is better than Harris'.
First we see that none of the non-Rods are elite hitters and Punto isn't so bad when you compare him to other guys who have gotten similar 2-year deals this offseason. If we're considering these guys as potential full-time players, let's look at how many runs above average their wOBA would make them over 550 PA:
29.7 -- A-Rod
8.6 -- DeRosa
1.4 -- Blake
-1.4 -- Harris
-4.3 -- Buscher
-11.5 -- Miles
-15.8 -- Punto
-20.1 -- Izturis
DeRosa is better at the plate than Harris and Buscher, by maybe about one win over the course of the season. Then it becomes a matter of how well everyone can field. Defensive stats are a bit of a mess for a number of reasons, but let's take a look at career UZR per 150 games at third base for these guys. There are definitely sample size issues here, and I don't think all of these ratings make sense, but it will give us a place to start the conversation.
18.7 -- Punto
8.2 -- Izturis
0.9 -- A-Rod
??? -- Miles
-3.4 -- Blake
-4.1 -- DeRosa
-12.8 -- Buscher
-18.3 -- Harris
First things first--I think that Punto's rating and Harris' rating are each too extreme. No one else seems to rate Punto that high at 3B and I would guess that he's closer to a +10 defender at 3B. Harris, on the other hand, has started only 39 career games at 3B, so there are extreme sample size issues with that number. UZR has him as a -3.9 runs/150G defender at 2B and a -9.9 runs/150G defender at 3B. Compared to other metrics, I think that's generous, but given his tools and the information from 200 games started at 2B/SS, I think it's reasonable to expect that Harris can be a -5 defender at 3B. Optimistically, I would guess he's average and pessimistically, I think -10 is about right at 3B.
Taking those things into consideration, and rounding to emphasize that these are rough measures, here is how I would rate those players as defenders at third base, in runs above average:
10 -- Izturis
10 -- Punto
0 -- A-Rod
0 -- Miles
-5 -- Blake
-5 -- DeRosa
-5 -- Harris
-10 -- Buscher
Using those defensive estimates, we get, for overall value at third base, in runs above average:
30 -- A-Rod
4 -- DeRosa
-4 -- Blake
-6 -- Punto
-6 -- Harris
-10 -- Izturis
-12 -- Miles
-14 -- Buscher
Of the group, I also have the least confidence in Buscher since he had an awfully weak history before the last couple of years and I'm most concerned about his defense, which could very well be worse than -10.
The more I look at it, the more I would lean towards making Harris the full-time 3B, with Buscher playing against tough right-handed pitchers or when we're not as concerned about infield defense. Harris seems more or less to be Casey Blake from 6-8 years ago, and we doesn't cost us anything to acquire him.
I think DeRosa would have been an upgrade. But he would have been a small upgrade, and for an extra $5.5M in salary, plus giving up more talent than the Indians gave up. I'm not sure at all about how good those minor league pitchers are (I suspect they aren't very good), but I'm sure that they have some value. $5.5M and low-value prospects are more than I would have given up for one extra win.
The Twins did a lot last offseason, and they did have done very little this offseason, but given their performances in 2007 and 2008, I think that makes sense. In 2007 we had a number of below-replacement-level performances. Upgrading from awful to mediocre is the easiest kind of improvement that you can make.
In 2008, a big reason that the Twins improved is that they had barely any below-replacement-level performances. Monroe and Everett, for instance, were annoying, but as a group they were only as far below replacement level as Darnell McDonald, Matt LeCroy, and Chris Heintz were (as a group) for the Twins in 2007. Mike Lamb was all kinds of fail this year (especially when you include his glove), but that's nothing compared to the devastation that Rabe, Garrett Jones, Luis Rodriguez, Rondell White, Alexi Casilla, and Nick Punto brought us the year before.
All totalled, the Twins improved from -76 runs in below-replacement-level performance in 2007 to just -19 runs in below-replacement-level performance in 2008. That's a 5-6-win improvement in just replacing your worst players with barely adequate players. That's very nearly as good as the difference between A-Rod and a replacement-level third baseman.
I think that's a pretty overlooked part of the '07 to '08 improvement, but it also means that we've more or less exhausted the cheap and easy ways to improve the team--at least in position players. We ought to be scouring the waiver wires and looking for interesting NRIs to shore up the bullpen and rotation depth. Even there, I don't know how much you can realistically expect improvement. On results, Bonser sucked last year, but I suspect he'll be at or above replacement level this year. Bass was also bad, but he wasn't even below replacement level based on runs allowed--so I wouldn't expect for miracles in improving the bullpen.
The Twins have a roster that can be substantially improved for 2009 in three main ways:
1) Fleece someone in a trade
2) Trade future value for present value
3) Spend $$$$ to improve spots where we are okay but not great
The first option always sounds great, but you can't always depend on deals with suckers to come through. The second option probably doesn't make sense for the Twins because money is a very scarce resource for them and prospects usually costs less money than players you would acquire in a trade. The third option doesn't work because we're not lucky enough to be sitting on a 25-million-resident gold mine.
I didn't really plan on coming back to this, but here I am again. For as much as some people want to be delusional about the advantage that the Yankees have, it's ridiculous to think that small-revenue teams like the Twins aren't at a significant disadvantage compared to large-revenue teams when it comes to assembling their roster. I can hope that the Twins can turn fool's gold into gold, but it's not reasonable to expect that, and I see no obvious, significant upgrades for this team.
Terry Ryan built the basis for this team by being patient and not trading the future for one wild run at a ring. Bill Smith would be wise to follow that precedent. Our offseasons are bound to be boring not because of our management, but because of our budget. Until MLB decides to do something about that, it's just the way it is.
December 30th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Tags: BAJ, Dallas Mavericks, Mark Cuban
Minnesota Timberwolves, 6-24
SRS: -6.84 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.8 (15th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 102.9 (26th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.3 (26th of 30)
Dallas Mavericks, 18-12
SRS: 2.44 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.8 (15th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 107.6 (13th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.5 (8th of 30)
<SBG>Fresh off of an overtime victory over the Grizzlies and winners of two of their last three, the surging (well, relatively, at least) Wolves head to Dallas to face the Mavericks. Dallas has won nine straight against the Hometown Five and are 7-3 in their last ten.
Last night's game was a fun one for us long sufferers. BAJ had a great night on the offensive end. I don't think there's any doubt that he's already the best low post scorer the team has ever had and he was abusing the youngsters from Tennessee. He might have a tougher go tonight as will the club in general.
I have always liked Mark Cuban. I'm disappointed that he's been caught in an insider trading bit. I hope he gets off and I hope his club can survive the bad trade that they made for Jason Kidd. He's been a great owner for the NBA and he really seems to care about the team's fans.</SBG>
<GreekHouse>Last night's game was indeed a fun one. The Wolves survived a 2nd quarter during which they made only one field goal and tied a franchise record for fewest points in a quarter to come back in OT. BAJ had a monster game with 38 points and 16 rebounds. Memphis is exactly the kind of team that BAJ can dominate. He tends to struggle against teams with a dominant defensive center (i.e. LA or Orlando), but against anyone else, he can basically score at will.
Of course, the big story coming into the game was Love vs. Mayo and throughout the game, Love had to deal with chants of "we want Mayo" from the crowd. Love came through with a solid game, going for 17 points and 7 boards going 5/7 from the field and 7/8 from the line. But of course, one game doesn't prove anything, and the debate about the trade will rage on for years. In yesterday's game log, I wrote a piece defending the trade. In reality, I'm not as high on this trade as I probably made it seem. Mostly, I just hear so much negativity about the trade that I feel inclined to defend it. My opinion on the trade is basically the same from the time we made it. I think it's a good--but not great--trade for this team. I'm not the only one who feels this way, fellow SBG Nation citizen Stop-n-Pop agrees with me. Mayo will be a good player in this league, but come on, he's not going to be the next Kobe. Guys like him are basically a dime a dozen in the NBA, and we will have opportunities to get another player similar to him. In fact, we already have two that are similar to him (albeit worse).
But as I've always said, you have to evaluate the decision to make a move based on the information that was available at the time the move was made. Oden was supposed to be the next Shaq, then he got hurt for a season and now he has rather meager numbers. If he turns out to be worse than Kevin Durant, does it mean that it was a mistake for Portland to take him with the #1 pick? Of course not. He was the consensus #1 and had way more upside than anyone else in the draft. You can evaluate a GM using hindsight by looking at many of his decisions, but one decision can have a variety of outcomes. When the reality of a situation plays out, you only get one outcome. How good a decision is should be based on the average of all possible outcomes. Either Mayo or Love could suffer a season ending injury in the next game and then the other team will be looking pretty good. That doesn't change whether or not we should have made the trade at the time however.
I know I have written about this before, and I will write about it again. I think it's important to put ourselves in the position of the GM at the time of a trade and look at the information available at the time. It's easy to wait until all the unknowns become known and then make an assessment of the trade. Anybody can do that, but not everyone can be a good GM.</GreekHouse>
December 29th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Tags: Kevin Love, Mark Madsen, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, OJ Mayo
Memphis Grizzlies, 10-20
SRS: -5.53 (25th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 90.4 (22nd of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 103.7 (24th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 109.3 (22nd of 30)
Minnesota Timberwolves, 5-24
SRS: -7.15 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.9 (13th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 102.6 (26th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.7 (26th of 30)
<SBG>Memphis comes to town the losers of five of their last six games after winning five of the previous six games, in other words, they are 6-6 over their past twelve. That's not too bad, the recent rough spot notwithstanding, given that they, like a certain club located in Hennepin County Minnesota, managed just 22 wins last season. They've got a couple of nice young players in Rudy Gay and Ovinton J'Anthony Mayo around which to build.
I looked at this game a while back as perhaps the Wolves' only shot to win a game in December, but while I was off in the Northland, the Wolves inexplicably pulled off a win in New York City. I don't know how that happened -- I didn't hear anything about the game, but it makes me wonder how damned bad the Knicks are and why a guy like LBJ would want to tether himself to that club. Anyhoo, the Wolves are off the schneid in December and Coach McHale has his first win in his second go around, so everything is hunky dory. The Wolves could get this one, too. B-R has them as a slight favorite, giving the Home Towners a 55% chance of winning. Then again, this is Young Ovinton's first trip to Minneapolis as a pro player, so maybe he just goes nuts, the Grizzlies win, and the few remaining locals who follow this club rend their garments amid shouts of despair.
Of course, the Wolves have their own rook, Kevin Love, and he's kind of in danger of sinking into a huge funk. He's scored nine points in five games and is losing some playing time to (gasp) Mark Madsen. That's like the ultimate indignity. I suppose McHale wants to win games (how does Madsen help in that regard, though?) and he's trying to find a rotation that can win. But, dammit, Love is what the Wolves have to show for the third pick in the draft. He should get every opportunity to prove he's not a bust. He shouldn't be playing single digit minutes, like he has in two of the last three games. This team needs to develop him, if they can. No more Mad Dog!
</SBG>
<GreekHouse>I caught the end of the first half of the Knicks game and all of the second half. By the time I turned it on, the Wolves were already up big and they managed to hold on. There was quite a bit of booing there, I guess NY fans don't like it when a 4 win team waltzes into their place and beats the crap out of them.
I'd say the Wolves played reasonably well against the Magic--twice coming back from sizable deficits to tie the game or take the lead. Then, the Magic made 12 of their last 14 shots to put it away. It was pretty absurd to watch. The Wolves couldn't even make a layup while Turkoglu was making shots from behind the backboard. On a totally unrelated note, a while back I complained about the Wolves putting in a five of Foye/McCants/Gomes/Smith/Maddog. Well, somehow Mchale managed to top that lineup, putting in Bassy/McCants/Gomes/Cardinal/Maddog. Yikes.
A while ago, SBG made a case for the Wolves sticking with Mayo, so I'll have a go at making a counterpoint here.
First off, it's only 30 games into their careers. A lot of people seem to think that Mayo is destined for superstardom, while Love will merely be a decent bench player for the rest of his career (not that SBG was saying that, but this is the impression I get from some other people). I expect both of them to have very solid NBA careers. In fact, I'd say that their performances so far are actually a lot more comparable than most people think. Mayo is filling up the scoring column, but not really doing much else. He's averaging 3.0 assists, but a whopping 2.7 TOs--not the kind of ratio you'd like to see from your guards. He's also getting almost 38 minutes per game, while Love is getting a mere 22.5. If Love were able to deliver the same production with Mayo's minutes, he'd be getting 12.6 ppg and 13.1 rpg. 13.1 boards!? Soon Love would have to start dying his hair all sorts of crazy colors and start dating Madonna (take that, Arod).
The areas where Love has taken criticism are his shooting and his lack of jumping ability. He tends to get blocked a lot after he gets the ball right under the basket and his jump shooting has been pretty bad so far. The former seems like something that should come with experience. Up to this point in his NBA career, he's been able to basically just go right back up with those offensive rebounds and there wasn't anyone who could stop him. For the first time in his life, he's now having to deal with people that are taller than him and can actually block him. However, this seems like something that he should adjust to with time. He'll learn how to use pump fakes more effectively and learn when he should just pull the ball out and reset. As for his jump shooting, he was touted as a good shooter (which NBA 3 point range) coming into the league, so I expect that his shooting will improve as well as he gets more comfortable out there.
Another thing to consider is how these two players have been treated since they came into the league. Can you even remember the last time a player came into the Wolves system and exceeded expectations? If the Wolves had kept Mayo, who's to say he wouldn't be getting 15 minutes per game and would be losing PT to Foye and McCants? If Love had stayed with Memphis, maybe he would be getting his 38 mpg and putting up 12.6/13.1 numbers and people would be talking about him for ROY.
But ok, the Mayo/Love comparison is only part of the deal, although until the end of their careers, people will probably be comparing the two as if it were a straight up deal. The Wolves also picked up Miller and dumped 2 bad contracts on Memphis. While Miller has been somewhat of a disappointment for the Wolves this season, he's still better than most of the players on the team (when he's not injured). He could play a part on this team in the future or he could be a valuable trade at the deadline. Getting rid of Jaric's contract will come in handy in the future too, since the Wolves will obviously use that money to come out of nowhere and sign LBJ when he becomes a FA. </GreekHouse>
December 27th, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: Expansion, New York, Suck, Yankees
I would probably have more vitriol now over the Yanks' most recent spending spree if I hadn't used up so much of it last offseason. For whatever reason, the media is no longer willing to talk about what a disadvantage all of the sub-$100M payroll teams are at. Hell, the Twins could have enacted the Brian Cashman Plan last year and still had money left over this offseason to sign CC and Tex, maybe even Burnett (or failing Burnett, Lowe.) Had we held on to Bartlett and Garza on top of that, it's difficult for me to comprehend how much better our team would be right now. At that point we would have a real honest-to-god surplus of starting pitching and we could then either convert them into awesome relievers or make some trades to upgrade at positions of need. There is no problem the Twins have right now that a $200M payroll couldn't solve.
So how do we stop the Yankees and the Mets? It's expansion time! Give Brooklyn and Manhattan one team each. Maybe move one of those teams down to New Jersey, depending on what the market research says about the geographical extent of the Evil Empire. Then, since I'm wielding this obviously ridiculous power, I'm going to announce that everyone has to decide on the same set of rules--I don't care too much which way they choose--and when we expand, we're undergoing wholesale geographic realignment into four divisions.
In the Eastern League, we have the East Division and the Atlantic Division:
| East |
Atlantic |
| TOR |
BOS |
| CLE |
NYY |
| DET |
BK |
| PIT |
MAN |
| TB |
NYM |
| FLA |
PHI |
| ATL |
BAL |
| CIN |
WSN |
In the Western League, we have the West Division and the Midwest Division:
| West |
Midwest |
| SEA |
MIN |
| COL |
MIL |
| SF |
CHW |
| OAK |
CHC |
| LAA |
KC |
| LAN |
STL |
| SDP |
TEX |
| ARI |
HOU |
14 games against teams in your division and 8 games against teams from the other division in your league.
The geographic realignment serves a number of purposes. It will lower transportation costs, and in general lower the amount of time that teams have to spend on the road. If the Twins go to Chicago, they can stay there for an entire week. They could even make a reasonable drive up to Milwaukee without having to take an extra flight.
More importantly, it will be easier for fans to see more of their team's games. Every team in the eastern time zone always plays in the eastern time zone until the WS. Every team in the central time zone plays 130 out of 162 games in central time. Teams in the mountain time zone are kind of screwed because there aren't enough teams there, but 130 out of 162 games in west/mountain is pretty good--certainly better than having to deal with Sunday games that start at 9am local.
I'm no businessman, but it seems that it would be a good business idea to give the customers greater access to your product, and this would do just that. It also seems like it would make your employees happier to deal with less travel.
Also, under my plan, we get rid of the ridiculous sham that is interleague play. If it is a good thing to have local rivalries, then we ought to have more of them, and my plan incorporates that. I don't think there's any especially good reason to have the occasional game against a roster that fans are totally unfamiliar with. If adding variety to our schedule was important, we shouldn't be playing the Royals 19 times per year.
If New Yorkers want to continue to support the Yankees, they'll have their chance--the Yankees would play 102 games in New York under this plan--but the other NY teams would at least benefit from increased ticket sales.
Anyway, I'm sure there are other ways that MLB could deal with this without instituting a salary cap, but they ought to do something, and the media ought to quit acting like this isn't an issue simply because the Yankees haven't won the WS in a while.
December 24th, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: Knuckleball, Minor League Contract, R. A. Dickey, Twins
R. A. Dickey Signs Minor League Deal With Twins. It's tough to go wrong with a minor league deal. I don't think Dickey is all that, but at least this year he won't be poached in the Rule 5 draft. Mauer better find his oversized mitt for spring training.
December 24th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: New York Yankees, Salaries
The Yankees are controlling the media. I read this report linked by E-6 about the Wang signing (one year, $5 million) and I thought, hmmm, that's about right. Then I read this:
His agreement raises the Yankees' payroll to about $164 million for 15 players for next year. That includes pitcher Andrew Brackman and infielder Juan Miranda, who don't figure to be on the major league roster.
What? The Yankees have fifteen players under contract and the total is $164 million? I don't believe it (especially since I was touting a much higher number for 12 players just yesterday ($192.6 million)). Am I wrong, or are the Yankees pulling a fast one? Click here to continue reading post...
December 24th, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Situational Hitting, Steve Phillips, Yankees
I know, I know, I shouldn't really care, especially since that person is Steve Phillips, but I'm continually interested in how people arrive at the conclusions they have w/r/t clutch hitting.
In some video clip, Phillips was claiming that Teixeira is willing to take a walk with RISP, so other guys on the team were going to have to come through with big hits. This, obviously, sent me scrambling for data. In particular, he basically said that you can't count on Tex and A-Rod in clutch spots, so that guys like Posada and Matsui will be more important to the Yankees. While we're at it, I figured that we might as well throw Captain Dreamboat into the mix.
First, some averages:
.261/.324/.412, 3128 AB/team -- 2008 AL, none on
.297/.362/.452, 749 AB/team -- 2008 AL, RISP, <2 outs
.245/.350/.386, 659 AB/team -- 2008 AL, RISP, 2 outs
I have a draft of a post where I talk more about this, but I think this is really interesting. The 2007 breakdown is pretty close to this, and for the most part, I'm inclined to say that the noise level here is small. If that's true, we can empirically see that pitchers pitch differently in different situations. If the pitchers are altering their approach, then it seems reasonable to claim that not all hitters adapt to those different situations in the same way. I don't like the term clutch hitting because it implies some sort of intestinal fortitude component, but I think it's plausible that some hitters are more well-suited to certain situations than others, even just based on differences in talent.
Getting back to the issue at hand, let's look at the five aforementioned Yankees, sorted by (BA/RISP 2 outs) - (BA/none on), career.
Empty/RISP2, Diff
0.282 /0.291, 0.009 --- Tex
0.314 /0.317, 0.003 --- Jeter
0.261 /0.245, -0.016 --- Avg
0.302 /0.274, -0.028 --- A-Rod
0.289 /0.253, -0.036 --- Matsui
0.279 /0.231, -0.048 --- Posada
In general, this is the situation where pitchers will pitch around you the most. If they walk you, they still have only one more out to get. If they walk you with less than two outs, then they have to walk a longer tightrope and starters especially aren't really going to want to walk the tightrope forever.
Generally stuff like this comes with small sample size caveats, but we're generally looking at a minimum of 400-500 AB behind each batting average. Since we're looking at fairly specific circumstances, that seems pretty reasonable to me.
Hilariously enough, Teixeira comes out looking better than everyone by this particular measure. However, the conventional Jeter=Clutch, A-Rod=Fail wisdom is somewhat supported. Sure, A-Rod is better at getting hits in these spots than an average AL hitter, but even I'll admit that he doesn't get paid to be average. He's not catastrophically worse in RISP/2 situations, but he's somewhat worse, especially compared to someone like Jeter who is markedly better than average. Either way, Matsui and Posada are the last guys of that group that you want at the plate.
Now we'll move on to who is taking walks in these situations. The first thing we'll note is that not all walks are created equally. Intentional walks are strategic decisions that are out of the hitter's hands, and I have trouble counting intentional walks against a hitter. If teams are willing to walk you more often than another guy, that means they think you are dangerous in more situations, and it's tough for me to imagine that this hurts your value. On the other hand, intentional walks are one area where I could see the concept of "protection" really having some merit, so a good hitter might get pitched to with a good hitter behind him while a mediocre hitter might get the IBB if Mario Mendoza is hitting behind him.
None of these guys have been intentionally walked with the bases empty, so for the moment, let's ignore intentional walks and look at the difference in unintentional walk rate with the bases empty and with RISP/2. (All walk rates are listed as BB/100PA.)
None/RISP2, Diff -- Dude
8.3/11.9, 3.7 --- Jeter
8.9/12.4, 3.5 --- Tex
7.6/10.6, 2.9 --- Avg
10.2/12.4, 2.3 --- A-Rod
12.4/14.0, 1.6 --- Posada
11.0/8.7, -2.3 --- Matsui
Apparently Captain Clutch isn't unfamiliar with passing the buck. He becomes noticeably more patient with a runner in scoring position and 2 outs, walking more than AL average with RISP/2 and also increasing his walk rate more than an AL average hitter. Teixeira and A-Rod both walk more than Jeter in these situations, but that's mainly because they just walk more than Jeter in general. And really, with the difference at one walk every 200 PA, it's likely to be an unnoticeable difference over the course of the season.
One could argue, looking at this data, that Jeter and Teixeira, knowing that pitchers are more likely to pitch around them in this situation, use that to their advantage, and are therefore more successful at getting hits when they aren't too busy working a walk. One could also argue that A-Rod becomes somewhat impatient (relatively speaking) and gets himself out on pitches that would otherwise get him a walk.
I find this interesting because typically pundits will call upon a perceived unclutch player to "expand his strike zone," but in this case it seems as though Mr. Rodriguez has already expanded his strike zone too much.
Rounding out the list, Posada takes more walks than anyone, so Steve Phillips was either trying to subtly suggest that the Yankees would be screwed if they had to rely on Posada, or he was talking out of his ass. Matsui's walk rate gets crazy low with RISP/2, but since his BA dips by 36 points, I would lean towards deeming him the least able to handle this situation.
Now we can take a look at the intentional walk list, which is interesting in its own right:
IBB/100PA (RISP/2)
5.8 --- Tex
4.7 --- Posada
3.6 --- A-Rod
3.0 --- Matsui
2.5 --- Avg
1.7 --- Jeter
If I didn't have a plausible explanation for this list, I would find it quite bizarre. Jeter, who is considered by many to be the clutchiest McClutcherson to ever have clutched, is not only intentionally walked less often than these other hitters, but he's intentionally walked less often than the league average in this situation. I think this probably has to do with protection. It's tougher to put a #2 hitter on base for a #3 hitter than it is to put a #6 hitter on base for a #7 hitter, or a #4 hitter on base for a #5 hitter on a weak team.
I don't really know why Posada and Matsui got thrown into this discussion by Mr. Phillips, but I can see why one would get the impression that Tex walks a lot in clutch spots, even if it seems completely wrong-headed to associate that with his willingness to take walks. With Jeter getting both more chances to hit in RISP/2 situations and having a much higher average than A-Rod in those situations, it kind of makes sense that Jeter is considered to be Mr. Clutch and A-Rod is considered to be Mr. Choke.
There are a few more things we could break down here (and we still haven't really addressed who is the most valuable hitter with RISP/2 of the group), but I'm already over a thousand words, so I'm going to give it a rest. It does make a certain amount of sense to me that if we take a guy who excels at making contact and a guy who hits for more power but strikes out more, that the gap between their batting averages would increase when pitchers really need to bear down and get out of the inning.
December 23rd, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Tags: Draft Picks, San Antonio Spurs
Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-22
SRS: -7.39 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.5 (16th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 102.0 (28th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.4 (25th of 30)
San Antonio Spurs, 17-10
SRS: 2.05 (11th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 88.3 (27th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 107.8 (12th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.2 (8th of 30)
<SBG>This game is the already the third time that the Wolves have faced the Spurs this season, with a fourth game scheduled on March 17th. The last time the Wolves played the Spurs, they had won four straight and I was beginning to think that this club would challenge in the West. Of course, they beat the Wolves (now losers of 12 straight) and won their next game against the hapless OKC Thunder. After that, though, they dropped a pair of road games at New Orleans and Orlando. Those are two good teams to be sure, and losing to both of them is certainly no shame. But, I'll back off a little and let this season play out a little more before I commit to the Spurs as being a legitimate threat to win the Western Conference. The West is losing the overall battle against the East this year, but the top of the West is still very strong. Hollinger projects the Spurs to win 50 games this year, but that's only good enough for the sixth seed. He also sees the Spurs as having a 10% chance of winning the West. Unlike the East, which has two and maybe three teams with a shot at the conference title, the West is wide open. San Antonio looks like a team on the periphery and still one that has a decent enough shot to play for a title.
In the other corner are our Wolves. I hope that morale improves, because the beatings are going to continue. With 15 games left in the first half of the season, I think it's quite possible that the Wolves could make it to the halfway point with just 6 or 7 victories (last year it was 7). Perhaps more. I count five games that are winnable (of course, any game is winnable, I'm talking about games with a decent chance to win) in the next 15: Memphis, at Memphis, Golden State, OKC, and at Clippers. If they can win all of those games, they are at nine wins and an 18 win pace. Throw in a win at New York and they are at 10 wins. However, Memphis is improved, they laid an egg earlier (meaning that they played like crap the whole game) against the Clipperdoodles, who have been better, lost to OKC (and won on a buzzer beater). So no game is in the bag. Except for tonight's game. For the Spurs.</SBG>
<GreekHouse>Well, the Wolves are certainly looking woeful these days, which at least means that they will likely get a high draft pick. Of course, their first pick in the first round will be just one of many that they will get this year. It looks like they will get 4 (is that right???). Other than the Joe Smith fiasco, McHale's most notable failures have come on draft day. But even beyond his inability to select good players is the way he treated draft picks throughout his tenure as GM of the Wolves.
The impression that I get from McHale is that the draft is only useful to teams that are in pretty bad shape and he seemed to piss them away in pretty much any trade that he made. It started with the Marbury/Allen trade, then we continued to trade away picks in pretty much every major trade we made until the Garnett trade. Since then, picking up first rounders has been top priority and now the Wolves seem to have a relative surplus of them. The combination of these two thing leads me to believe that McHale really doesn't understand exactly what makes picks valuable and how much actual value they have.
While it's generally true that draft picks have more value to teams that are trying to rebuild, draft picks have value even to championship contenders. Part of the reason draft picks have more value to teams that are trying to rebuild though, is that their picks tend to come at the beginning of the draft where they can get better players with them. You're not going to get LeBron with the 25th pick in the first round. That isn't to say that low draft picks don't have value however.
All other things being equal, the teams with the best records in the league one year will typically have a worse record the next year and vice versa. In other words, the tendency of all teams is to regress to the mean. The tendency is due to a number of factors which I won't go into here. But in order for a championship caliber team to continue to compete, they typically need to do something to continue to play at the same high level. Usually, this is done by adding a player or two during the offseason. One way to get these players is through free agency, but this is often an expensive and impractical way to improve your team--and that's where the draft comes in.
If your team is already pretty good, you typically don't need to go out and secure a big name free agent to continue competing, but you will likely have smaller needs that can be addressed more cheaply. The draft is a great way to address these needs. Even near the end of the first round, you can typically get a decent player that will help your team in some way. It may just be a backup point guard or a center who plays 10 minutes a game, but having these players is essential to any successful team. If you can draft someone like this, you can get them for a fraction of the price that you would have to pay a comparable free agent. You will also have them under contract for several years.
A good GM should always look to improve his team any way he can. This means he should be open to all options at all times. McHale seemed to thing that drafting players wasn't really a good option for improving the Wolves. He basically traded them away for minor upgrades (if that) at positions where we already had a decent player. In reality, the Wolves likely would have benefited more from keeping the players that they had and picking up a good backup in the next draft. While making a single trade like this might be beneficial (assuming you get enough value for your picks), the result of doing this over and over left the Wolves with very little depth. Combine this with McHale's inability to select good players when he did keep the picks and the Wolves were left virtually crippled, even with Garnett.
Now the Wolves are looking at a potential 4 first round picks in a rather weak looking draft class. Although having a lot of draft picks is never really a bad thing, it does introduce some interesting problems. For one thing, first round picks are guaranteed contracts, so we'll be left with 4 contracts that are on the books. Furthermore, the contracts will all be expiring at the same time, leaving it difficult to resign all of them and possibly having to make difficult choices down the line. It would be nice to see the Wolves deal some of these picks for either an established player or a future first round pick.</GreekHouse>
December 23rd, 2008 by SBG
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: Billy Smith, Festivus, Iowans Breeding in the Wild, Minnesota Gophers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Minnesota Vikings, NDSU Bison, Target Field
There's a light snow falling on this most special of days, and it's causing traffic to become snarled. Yep, it's Festivus and I'm in a bad mood, because you've all disappointed me again this year. Let me take this opportunity, after brianS gets the aluminum pole out from the crawl space, to discuss all of the ways I've been let down in 2008.
1. Billy Smith -- Way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. You got an MVP caliber performance from your catcher, another nice year from your first baseman, your starting pitching staff did yeoman's work, Dino Span was a pleasant surprise and Nick Punto didn't stink to high heaven. All you had to do was make one good move and the Twins could have had a run at a World Championship in this Yankee-less year. But no. You sat on your hands while Chad Bradford was claimed on waivers by Tampa Bay and then you go out and sign "Yesteryear" Eddie Guardado. Boo. You cost us post season baseball.
2. Glen Taylor -- You suggested that KG gave up on the Wolves before you traded him to the Celtics. Yep, KG was the problem. Since the trade, the Celtics are 92-18 during the regular season. In the last three plus seasons, the Wolves are 91-181. Since the trade, the Wolves are 26-82. You should have fired Kevin McHale about six or seven years ago. Your roster is a mess, your front office is a joke, and you frittered away the best years of KG's career. But, at least we've found out the answer to the question, "What if KG was actually surrounded by a couple of players?" The answer is this: his team turns into one of the greatest teams of all time. And thanks for this: Before the trade, I'd started to compare him to Bill Russell. My comparison was made to suggest that he is so dominant on the court in all facets that he doesn't need to be the top scorer on a club or take the last second shot to be the best player on the floor by far. The comparison kind of fell apart (no rings, dude), but he's got the ring now, and everyone else is picking up on a comparison I made years ago.
3. NDSU football -- The last two years of their transition period to DIV I-AA (or whatever they call it now), the Bison were 20-2 with three wins over I-A schools, including a manhandling of the Gophers. This year, finally(!), they were eligible for the playoffs, and they went 6-5 and miss the playoffs. Oy vey!
4. Minnesota Vikings -- Okay, I'm not really disappointed. I am more amused with the various failures of the Vikings. We all know about "Take a knee, Denny" or "41-doughnut" or the game in Arizona where Jake McClown (sic) knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs, and various other indignities suffered by this club. When I was a kid, the Vikings had the decency of either losing in the Super Bowl or getting shafted by the referees (that wasn't a Hail Mary, that was freaking offensive pass interference). But, now, they just stumble through one shop of horrors after another. Seven fumbles against Atlanta. I suppose the impossible can happen and the Vikings can still make the playoffs (impossible, because they usually screw up and miss the playoffs these days). But, I will note that the schedule maker ominously set up the last three games against Arizona (McClown), Atlanta (Take a knee), and New York (41-0). Cover your eyes, Vikings fans. I'll be watching the events like a proverbial car wreck.
5. Target Field -- Jeebus. The Twins could have gone with LOL Park and we would have all enjoyed that for about a millenia. But no. Target is a good enough Minnesota company and they sell this pasta sauce that my wife likes, and hell, they've got decent enough merchandise, the aisles are well-marked, and the stores aren't crowded and dirty like that outfit out of Arkansas, but good grief, don't the Twins realize the bad karma associated with playing in a facility named for this particular corporation? It's bad enough that they are going to be located right next door to those fools at 600 First Avenue North, but do they have to have the same corporate sponsor? This is more fate tempting than I'm comfortable with. Then again, the Twins have shared a stadium with the Vi-Queens for 47 seasons, so maybe they can survive the name Target Field. However, if they hire Dave Winfield to be the GM, I'm running for the hills. Then again, considering the occupant at the top of this list, I'm willing to roll the dice with someone else. Just so Carl Pohlad doesn't hire someone because he always wanted to meet him.
6. Those two Iowegians caught humping at the Metrodome -- It's too bad that they became the story, because that game was one of those things of beauty that don't come along very often. Well, okay, they do come along quite a bit for the Goofers. I don't know why I hate the Gophers -- they didn't really do anything to me. They aren't a natural rivalry for the Bison, although they do make a nice, soft non-conference opponent for the Thundering Herd. I guess I really enjoy seeing them fail. It's too bad, because the Goofers of the early sixties were a great club. I suppose when my Dad was in high school, they were fun to watch. Maybe, with the new stadium, they'll become competitive. But, hey, Joel Maturi is talking about extending Brewster's contract on the heels of his epic collapse, including that 55-nil debacle against Iowa at home. Come on, Maturi, do it! Extend him! But, again, these two clowns mating in the wilds of a Metrodome bathroom has served to deflect the attention away from the, um, pounding, that occurred on the field of play inside the stadium.
There you go. I could go on and on, but I've got to wrestle ubelmann now.
December 22nd, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: Hall of Fame, Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson, Stolen Bases, Tim Raines
In honor of Steve Aschburner's weird dismissal of Tim Raines' case, and in honor of Baseball-Reference.com's coolness, let's look at people who are 5th on the all-time list of some counting stat, and what percentage of the all-time leader's total they have.
Games
Leader -- Pete Rose (3562)
5th -- Ty Cobb (3035/85%)
Runs
Leader -- Rickey (2295)
5th -- Babe/Hank (2174/95%)
Hits
Leader -- Pete Rose (4256)
5th -- Tris Speaker (3514/83%)
Doubles
Leader -- Tris Speaker (792)
5th -- Craig Biggio (668/84%)
Triples
Leader -- Sam Crawford (309)
5th -- Roger Connor (233/75%)
*I find the triples list pretty interesting. Crawford and Cobb lead the list with ~300 triples and were left-handed. Honus Wagner is third, but is first amongst right-handed batters with 252. The next-best right-handed batter is Joe Kelley at 194. Honus Wagner must have had some crazy wheels. Out of the top 50, there are 20 RHB and 2 switch hitters.
Home Runs
Leader -- Barry Bonds (762)
5th -- Ken Griffey, Jr. (611/80%)
RBI
Leader -- Hammerin' Hank (2297)
5th -- Lou Gehrig (1995/87%)
Walks
Leader -- Barry Bonds (2558)
5th -- Joe Morgan (1865/73%)
Strikeouts
Leader -- Reggie Jackson (2597)
5th -- Jose Canseco (1942/75%)
Stolen Bases
Leader -- Rickey Henderson (1406)
5th -- Tim Raines (808/57%)
*Consider for a moment that Honus Wagner and Joe Morgan--10th and 11th on the list--have 1411 combined stolen bases.
Extra-base Hits
Leader -- Hammerin' Hank (1477)
5th -- Willie Mays (1323/90%)
*Willie Mays was an elite defensive CF. What an astounding player.
Times On Base
Leader -- Pete Rose (5929)
5th -- Carl Yastrzemski (5304/89%)
HBP
Leader -- Hughie Jennings (287)
5th -- Ron Hunt (243/85%)
*Biggio retired 2 short of the record. Jason Kendall is 5th all-time at 231.
Sac Hits
Leader -- Eddie Collins (512)
5th -- Donie Bush (337/66%)
Sac Flies
Leader -- Eddie Murray (128)
5th -- Big Hurt/Hank (121/95%)
IBB
Leader -- Barry Bonds (688)
5th -- Vlad (239/35%)
*Jim Rice, for all of the fear he supposedly inflicted upon opposing pitchers, had a measly 77 IBB in his career. 30 active players have more career IBB than Jim Rice.
GIDP
Leader -- Cal Ripken (350)
5th -- Eddie Murray (316/90%)
*Jim Rice is 6th on that list at 315, which I guess makes him the highest guy on that list who isn't in the HOF. Julio Franco is 7th at 312.
Caught Stealing
Leader -- Rickey Henderson (335)
5th -- Bert Campaneris (199/59%)
*Tim Raines is 23rd on that list with just 146 CS.
Outs
Leader -- Pete Rose (10328)
5th -- Eddie Murray (8570/83%)
Aside from our fun with stats, saying that Raines is worse than Rickey, therefore Raines isn't a Hall of Famer is an awfully silly argument. If that's our standard, we should unanimously vote in Rickey (because there are zero legitimate reasons to not vote for Rickey), wait to approve Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, and Roger Clemens, and then start reconsidering applications when Alex Rodriguez retires. As Bill James aptly said, we could split Rickey Henderson in two and have two Hall of Famers. He's that good.
Rickey's stolen bases record is one of the most freakish records in the history of baseball. He's got 50% more stolen bases than Lou Brock, who is second on that list and might never be passed again. To use that as a benchmark against Tim Raines is like scoffing at someone's Nobel Prize because they don't have as many Nobel Prizes as John Bardeen.
If we want to find a reasonable HOF comparable for Raines, we could look towards Lou Brock. Raines played 2502 games, Brock played 2616 games. After adjusting for league and park, Raines hit .314/.409/.455 and Brock hit .307/.358/.430. Raines had 131.1 career WARP3 and Brock had 89.9 career WARP3.
Lou Brock's not an inner circle Hall of Famer, but he was a good choice for the Hall. Tim Raines had a significantly better career than Lou Brock and there's no doubt in my mind that Tim Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame.
December 20th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Houston Rockets, 17-9
SRS: 3.23 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 90.4 (22nd of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 107.6 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.2 (5th of 30)
Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-21
SRS: -7.44 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.4 (18th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 101.7 (28th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.1 (25th of 30)
<SBG> The Timberwolves have now played 25 games and have the exact same record as last year's club after 25 games. You may recall that last year's club got off to an absolutely terrible start as they waited for second year guard Randy Foye to recover from a knee injury. They actually did win game #25, but then proceeded to drop 13 of their next 14 games before finishing 17-26. It's hard to envision even this club falling to say, 5-34, if for no other reason that there are a lot of pretty crummy teams in the West this year. But, I thought I'd compare this year's club with last year's club a little bit.
|
FG% |
OPP FG% |
3PT FG% |
3PT OPP FG% |
FT % |
OPP FT% |
TS% |
OPP TS% |
| 2007-08 |
0.441 |
0.460 |
0.345 |
0.361 |
0.731 |
0.783 |
0.510 |
0.557 |
| 2008-09 |
0.426 |
0.473 |
0.310 |
0.385 |
0.763 |
0.761 |
0.500 |
0.559 |
| Change |
-0.016 |
0.013 |
-0.035 |
0.024 |
0.032 |
-0.022 |
-0.010 |
0.002 |
|
AST |
OPP AST |
STL |
OPP STL |
TOV |
OPP TOV |
PTS/48 |
OPP PTS/48 |
| 2007-08 |
476 |
559 |
183 |
204 |
386 |
337 |
94.3 |
101.7 |
| 2008-09 |
524 |
524 |
149 |
169 |
355 |
333 |
93.0 |
100.7 |
| Change |
48 |
-35 |
-34 |
-35 |
-31 |
-4 |
-1.243 |
-1.019 |
Read 'em and weep. The Wolves are shooting slightly worse than last year (and are the worst shooting team in the league) while allowing their opponents to shoot slightly better than last year (and the Wolves opponents, collectively have shot like the fifth best team in the league). They are doing a little better handling the ball, but in the end, the scoring margin this year is actually greater through 25 games than it was last year. (Oy!) And with no Randy Foye coming back to give this club a shot in the arm, one would expect that the Wolves, while probably not continuing to keep pace with the terrible first half of last year, don't look to have the improved second half, either. The result is that they look like a team that will struggle to get to 20 wins (in fact, their scoring margin projects to just under 20 wins). Ugly.
No Timberwolves coach has ever started a stint 0-7. Both Bill Blair and Kevin McHale v2.0 have started 0-6. It looks like the former greatest GM in all of sports has a pretty good chance at setting a club record tonight. </SBG>
December 18th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: Featured Articles
Tags: Harlem Globetrotters, LeBron James, Minnesota Timberwolves, Spinal Tap
So, Bron-Bron comes to Target Center, drops 32 points, allegedly breaks a sweat, and the Cavs walk out with a 23 point victory. I was watching that game and Mr. James looked great, hitting shots, making spectacular passes and the Cavs were never seriously threatened. But, something was off about the game. Then, I turned it over to ESPN and I figured out what was going on.
The Celtics and Hawks were playing over there and the intensity level was turned up to about 11 on the old regular season dial. Guys were scrapping, blocking shots, straining to get to balls, playing defense. The crowd was into it, albeit aided by the local tape recordings of some guy yelling "De-fense!". But, what was going on there was a very intense game. Flip back to FSN and the intensity level is about the same as one of those games where they play "Sweet Georgia Brown" during the warmups. LeBron "Meadowlark" James and the Cavs were facing a team worthy of the Washington Generals.
James livened the game up with some razzle dazzle that he'd never use in one of those "this one goes to 11" games. But, here he was, dishing out multiple no look passes and guys were always wide open to receive them. And James was hitting all kinds of shots, but he wasn't being guarded like he is during a regular NBA game. He wasn't forced to play hard on the other end, either. But, that's kind of the point, isn't it? The Generals always score some points to make it close, but in the end, they also always lose.
When James finally came out of the game, he was feted by the crowd with a standing ovation. He waved to the locals and acknowledged their cheers. He's a professional. He'd put on a nice show for the locals and they were appreciative. Now, he and the Cavs have to get back to the business of playing NBA games. As for me, I prefer watching the NBA games to these exhibitions, but living in the Twin Cities, you take what you can get. I'm just glad that Mr. James didn't pull that old bucket of confetti trick.
December 17th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Tags: Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James, Wally Szczerbiak
Cleveland Cavaliers, 20-4
SRS: 12.36 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 89.7 (24th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 114.5 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 100.3 (2nd of 30)
Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-20
SRS: -7.28 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.8 (15th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 102.4 (26th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.1 (26th of 30)
<SBG>The Wolves are back in town tonight, coming off of an unsuccessful two game trip out West and owners of a 10 game losing streak. (How about Sacto losing by 30+ last night after taking the Wolves apart on Monday? Makes you feel all warm inside, doesn't it?) Sounds like a little home cooking is in order. Methinks they are going to get a face full tonight.
The Cavs come into town, having three nights off after a loss at Atlanta. Prior to that loss, the Cavs had won 19 of 20, with 16 of those wins having a double digit margin. The Cleveland organization has that little thing in the back of its mind to worry about -- namely, where will LeBron play starting in the 2010-11 season. There's not a lot that the Cavs can do about that right now, except for one thing: win and win big. If LeBron goes into free agency as a two-time defending NBA Champion, he'd have to think long and hard about leaving the Cavs. After all, it's not really about the money for Bron-Bron. He'll have more than he can possibly ever spend (well maybe not, but he doesn't appear to be Mike Tyson -- that honor might be going to Starbury, did you see his head tatoo?). What it's about is taking his place among the all-time greats. Which means, simply, can LeBron challenge Michael Jordan's legacy?
The Jordan legacy, as a player (as if I need to make that qualification), is, more than anything, about taking a franchise, putting it on his back, and carrying it to multiple titles. Magic had Kareem, an all-timer. Bird had Parish and McHale, two of the best big men ever paired together. Russell had an all-star cast his entire career. All-time greats, to be sure. But, Jordan won three championships with Luc Longley starting at center. He won with Bill Cartwright fending off Patrick Ewing. There was Pippen, yes, but the difference between Jordan and everyone of his teammates was astounding. Jordan was Bulls basketball. He's bigger than the franchise.
This is the situation LeBron finds himself in right now. He's much bigger than the Cavaliers franchise. He's a hometown boy. He looks like he can win multiple NBA MVP awards. He also looks like he can carry the Cavs to multiple championships. I suppose that there's some allure to winning in New York. And hey, the Knicks are pretty much a sad sack organization (no championships in 35+ years, despite playing in the biggest city in the country with all the advantages that entails). So, if he does decide to go to New York, he instantly becomes the biggest thing ever there. Winning in New York has some cachet, no doubt. Plus, he might land with another max contract player, considering all the cap money the Knicks have shed. But, if he stays in Cleveland, man, he can be the biggest thing ever in the league. He has the same type of vehicle that Jordan had -- a franchise that was totatlly non-descript before he got there. Can he drive it to the promised land a half dozen or so times? I think he should stay, obviously. But the Cavs need to win and win big for that to happen.
Of course, tonight's game means little to LeBron and the Cavs in the grand scheme of things. It might be the one time we get to see the King this year in Minnesota, but it's just another game for this juggernaut. But, I expect they'll trounce our Puppies. Basketball-reference.com agrees, pegging the Cavs as a winner tonight as being a 90% probability. I'll be nothing short of stunned if the Cavs don't just take this club apart (even if they've got some injury issues -- no Z or Daniel Gibson).
As an aside, here's an article from the Cleveland paper about Wally Szczberiak's lost post game (what?) and who he credits for developing it (hint: he's the best GM, evah!). Two things. One, the article starts out with, "Maybe the Cavaliers should send a thank you note to Timberwolves coach Kevin McHale." If so, the Cavs should get in line behind Boston, Portland, Memphis, and Miami, to name a couple of teams that have benefited from dealing with McHale. Two, Wally is quite effusive with the praise for McHale's coaching ability. Take that with a grain of salt. If you recall, Wally swore up and down that he and KG were like BFFs, when the reality is that Kevin hated Wally (and probably, Wally harbored a little resentment toward the Big Ticket). In other words, Wally's always been determined not to say anything negative in the press. I'm not passing judgment, I'm just saying. Okay, three things. Post up game?</SBG>
<GreekHouse>Monday night's loss to the Kings has to go down as one of the low points in this season for me. After McHale took over, the Wolves had 4 difficult games in a row. So it was no surprise when the Wolves went 0-4 in those games. But despite going 0-4, they seemed to play relatively well. Then, they went into Sacramento to play. This was a seemingly winnable game, so I expected the Wolves to come out and play. Plus, the Kings were without their best player in Kevin Martin. Given the way the Wolves had played, I expected them to win--or at least make it close. Then they somehow get blown out of the water. Ugh.
If the Wolves lose tonight, they will stand at 4-21--the exact same record they had last year after 25 games. So this begs the question: "Is this year's team actually worse than last year's team?"
On paper at least, they seem like they should be a better team. So I don't know how to answer that question. Maybe they've been undercoached or uninspired. This team looks pretty bad and each night, it seems they come up with a new, embarrassing way to lose. I guess last year's team was the same way, but I expected a lot more from these guys this year. </GreekHouse>
December 15th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Tags: Sacramento Kings
Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-19
SRS: -6.61 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.3 (19th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 102.5 (26th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 109.8 (24th of 30)
Sacramento Kings, 6-18
SRS: -7.67 (29th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 93.5 (8th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 103.6 (23rd of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 112.5 (28th of 30)
<SBG>The Wolves have lost nine in a row, a longer losing streak than any they had last year and have started December 0-8, losing all of those eight games by at least ten points, save the first game of the Coach Kevin McHale era, a three point loss at home to the Jazz, who were without Carlos Boozer. The NBA season is nothing if not long, and this is going to be a very long season. I'll admit that it appears that the Wolves are playing better under McHale, but the results aren't all that encouraging.
Looking ahead for the rest of the month, the Wolves have tonight's game, Cleveland at home, Houston at home, at San Antonio, at New York, Orlando at home, Memphis at home, and at Dallas. As I see it, there are a couple of opportunities for the Wolves to win this month and this game tonight is perhaps the best chance. Cleveland, San Antonio, Orlando, and Dallas seem like sure losses. Houston is a little iffy -- Artest may or may not be playing. Memphis has been surging (they've won four straight), but they are definitely a lower division squad. New York stinks, but the game is in MSG.
Meanwhile, Sacramento has been awful. True, they stuck the Lakers a while back, but that game just goes to show that the season is long and once in a while miracles can happen. But, a miracle here or there doesn't cut it in today's Association. Ask Randy Wittman. Or Reggie Theus, who was fired today by tonight's opponent, Sacto.
These two clubs have traded wins so far this year, with Minnesota winning their season opener by two over the Kings. Sacto exacted revenge with a 12 point win at home a week later. The Kings have been terrible at home, losing nine of their last ten there, including a 24 point pasting by the Knicks on Saturday night. Sacto's leading scorer, Kevin Martin, has missed 14 of 16 games with a sprained ankle. This is a crappy team (look, their SRS is worse than the Wolves' SRS!), on a bad run (that Laker win is all that separates them from an 11 game losing streak), with their best player (or at least, best scorer) hurt and with their coach newly fired. If the Wolves want to post 20 victories this year, this is the kind of game they have to win. I think the Wolves will get it done tonight.</SBG>
December 15th, 2008 by Rhubarb_Runner
Categories: Featured Articles, SBG Library
Tags: 1988, Homer Hanky
[contributed by: Rhubarb_Runner]
1988 Homer Hanky
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December 14th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Tags: Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves
<SBG>Kevin McHale, the once proclaimed "Best GM in all of Sports" had the winningest percentage of any coach of the Timberwolves (at 19-12, he'd won 61.3% of the games he'd coached the first time out). But, there's a slight chance that he'll fall to 0-4 this time out, which would give him a .543 winning percentage, lower than the .558 percentage that Flip Saunders managed. So, um, that didn't take long.
Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-18
SRS: -6.85 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.3 (19th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 102.9 (25th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.0 (25th of 30)
Los Angeles Lakers, 19-3
SRS: 9.84 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 96.2 (3rd of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 112.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 101.7 (3rd of 30)
It's kind of cool how we have this connection with the best two franchises in league history. The Lakers, of course, moved to Los Angeles from Minnesota, so LA literally took our first franchise. And, of course, Boston got our "franchise" in a trade a little over a year ago. So, that's kind of cool in a we-used-to-have-something sort of way.
I have mentioned a couple of times that the Lakers have slipped somewhat from what was an unbelievable start and that slippage has come primarily on the defensive end. I grab the numbers above from basketball-reference.com, a great website for basketball stats (kind of like baseball-reference.com, but not quite as good, the way that basketball stats aren't as good as baseball stats). They show the Lakers as being third in defensive efficiency in the NBA, which is darned good. But, a couple of weeks ago, they were a clear #1. So, they've slipped a little. But, only a little. And who's to say that this isn't just a little blip along the way through a very long season. Only time will tell that story.
You can't think Lakers without thinking Kobe Bryant. Bryant is now 30 years old, he's logged north of 32,000 minutes in the NBA and he's scoring the fewest number of points (save the 2003-04 season when the Lakers had Karl Malone, Gary Payton, Shaq, and O'Neal) per game since he was 21. Does that mean that Bryant is slowing down? Maybe, but if so, the drop is barely discernable. In fact, he's scoring just a tenth fewer points per 36 minutes than last year, so the points per game drop is most attributable to fewer minutes played. So there. Still though, he's played more minutes than Chris Mullin played and he's within 1000 minutes of Magic Johnson. Of course, Magic was playing at a pretty high level when his career was cut short the first time (with fewer minutes played than Kobe has now, remember Magic had that comeback). But, it was also clear that Magic had reached the backside of his career. I think we've probably seen the best of Kobe Bryant, but don't expect him to fall off a cliff. He's almost certainly going to score 30,000 points in this league and he has a chance, albeit a small one, of making a run at Kareem's otherworldly record of 38,387 points scored. He's just about 16,000 points short, which means playing until he's 39 or so (and at a very high level). That's probably out of reach. But, he's just about 10,000 short of Michael Jordan's total, and I'll bet plenty he'll aim for that.
It isn't about scoring points in this league, though, it's about winning. The Lakers have a great shot to win a championship this season. In addition to Kobe, they've got Pao Gasol and Andrew Bynum up front, with old hand Derek Fisher and Vladimir Radmanovich. Plus, Lamar Odom coming off the bench. Odom is very versatile, but he's also pretty inconsistant. I think he likes coming off the bench, which is cool, but he's making over $11 million in the last year of his deal. The Lakers have $75 million committed next year (Kobe has a player option at $23 million... he can opt out, but he'll only do so to get another long term deal signed up with the Lakers) without Odom. I suppose they can resign him and hey, they might, but they might not, either. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lakers deal Odom this year to get somebody that they can plug in now and for the next couple of years. Gasol is signed for two more years after this as is Radmanovich. Bynum is signed long term. This team is set for now and into the future. I can't believe they'll just let Odom go for nothing, because they won't really be able to replace him, being so far over the cap.
As for tonight, the Lakers are extremely big, especially on their front line. BAJ and K-Love will have their hands full with Andrew Bynum (who's less than a year older than Love) and Gasol. And Rashad McCan't is going to guard Kobe Bryant?
Lakers big. And McHale will become the second winningest coach percentage-wise in club history.</SBG>
<GreekHouse>It's kind of crazy, but there are 3 teams in the league that actually have a shot at beating the 1995-96 Bulls record of 72 wins in the season. One is the Wolves' opponent for tonight (19-3) and the others are the Celtics (22-2) and Cleveland (20-4). Cleveland had an 11 game win streak snapped last night, but they still have the greatest point differential in the league at +12.7. If I were to pick a team that would break the record however, I'd pick the Lakers if for no other reason than that the other two are in the same league and have to play each other more often. It may not seem like a big deal, but when you're talking about winning 72 games, 1 loss constitutes 10% of the games you're allow to lose for the entire season.
So how good are the Lakers? Their best player is better than our best player (by a lot) and in terms of PER, they have 4 players (Bryant, Gasol, Bynum, Ariza) better than our second best player (Love). And the worst of those 4 is Ariza (19.10) is way ahead of Love (16.06). You could even make arguments that Fisher, Odom, Farmar and Walton are all better than anybody on the Wolves other than Jefferson. In any case, anybody on the Lakers who is not an end of the bench player would be in the starting lineup for the Wolves. It seems almost unfair that these two teams are even in the same league. </GreekHouse>
December 12th, 2008 by SBG
Categories: 2008-09 Wolves Game Logs
Tags: Boston Celtics, Kevin Garnett, Kevin McHale, Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan
<SBG>The Spurs come to Target Center tonight and this could be a hide your eyes evening.
San Antonio, 13-8
SRS: 2.42 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 88.0 (27th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 107.9 (12th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.6 (10th of 30)
Minnesota, 4-17
SRS: -6.70 (28th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.4 (18th of 30) ▪ Offensive Rating: 103.2 (23rd of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 109.9 (25th of 30)
These two teams met in the fourth game of the year, with the Spurs winning in double overtime behind Tony Parker's 55 points (and Tim Duncan's 30). That was the Spurs' first win of the season after three losses. Manu Ginobili was out -- he's missed 13 games so far this year. The next game Parker got hurt and missed nine games. With those injuries, the Spurs have started slow and are pretty much an afterthought in a league with three teams bolting out to a huge lead over everyone else But, the Spurs are back to full strength and are moving up in the pack, so to speak.
Hollinger has them rated sixth overall, and as you can see, SRS has them 10th. The Spurs have been a notoriously slow starting squad through the years, and I now expect them to seriously challenge in the West, unless they are somehow felled by injuries, like they've already experienced this year.
I mentioned a while back that I think it would be great if the Lakers and Celtics had a finals rematch. The Lakes bolted out to a fantastic start and this Celtics club, looking to join the elite Celtics clubs of the past know that they need to win multiple championships. Since then, the Celtics have continued to wipe the floor with all comers, while the Lakers, at 18-3 suddenly look like they are just a little vulnerable. I know. They are winning more than 85% of their games and I'm calling them vulnerable. It's like when Johan Santana was in one of his second half grooves. He'd go out and pitch seven innings, give up a run on six hits and eight strikeouts. Yep, pretty darned splendid, but last time out it was eight innings, no runs, three hits and 11 Ks. Plus that run was on another home run. I'm splitting hairs in an otherwise brilliant start.
Well, there's that, and there's the matter of the Spurs. Yep, Duncan's a little older and so is Ginobili. The Spurs aren't that sexy -- look, they are 28th in pace -- they like to set it up and play in the half court. Boring. Plus, Duncan is almost a statue out there. So stoic (when he's not complaining about foul calls). He's no KG, screaming profanely like the type of insane street dweller that you cross the intersection to avoid. But, the Spurs have an almost unbelievable pedigree. Duncan is looking for one for the thumb. And that's just darned impressive. I think it's quite possible that we could see San Antonio in The Finals, and that would be delicious if the Celtics can make it, too. Duncan v. KG. For all the marbles. And really, for KG's place in history. That would be even more delicious for us KG dudes than The Rematch.
Yep, I'm talking about the Celtics when the Wolves are playing San Antonio. Sorry, folks. I suppose it's easy to get distracted from the hometown club when they have a better record than exactly one team (and that crappy club got one of their two wins against the Wolves -- and almost got another against Minnesota, except for a game saving three from the not playing Mike Miller). So, let's talk about tonight's game. But, first, a comment about McHale, the coach. Anthony Carter's comments about McHale the Xer and Oer were funny and McHale, to his credit basically said that his philosophy was to exploit mismatches. Fair enough. And I don't think there's any denying that McHale can teach big men a thing or two about playing in the post. After all, he was pretty much just about the best big man, ever, in terms of his footwork (although Hakeem Olajuwon had some pretty nifty moves, too, but if you are in the conversation with The Dream, well that's a conversation worth being in -- incidentally, ESPN has H.O. as KG's most similar at age -- all-timer, I tell you! A win over TD's Spurs in The Finals would be some serious validation. I digress.).
Anyway, in the Striberini today, McHale says that the Wolves intend to exploit mismatches tonight against the Spurs.
"Oh, we'll have mismatches," he said, referring to his team having the upper hand in spots against the Spurs.
Jeebus Christmas, we are going to win, because we are going to exploit our mismatches and the Spurs won't think about where they might have mismatches. Do they have any? Can't think of any.
This isn't the Spurs team that limped into Minneapolis a month and a half ago. Spurs by plenty tonight.</SBG>
<GreekHouse>It looks like the Wolves have returned to their beginning of the season form--where they were usually ahead until late in the game and then ended up losing. I have to say that this is still more satisfying than the last games of the Wittman era. Had it not been for Melo's 33 point quarter, the Wolves might have won that one. It's kinda weird to say, but it would have been really nice to have Brewer in that game. Beyond him, there's really nobody on the Wolves who can even slow down a guard like him, Kobe or LeBron.
Tonight the Wolves get another go at the Spurs. Last time, Love did a decent job on Duncan when he was in there, but the Wolves had no answer for Tony Parker. I have no idea what McHale's plan is to stop Parker, but I can only assume that he has a good one. Love continues to dominate on the boards and given the way he played Duncan last time, I expect him to get plenty of PT tonight. The Spurs are old and don't like moving, so the Wolves need to aggressively attack on anything resembling a fast break opportunity. If the Wolves get stuck in a half court game against this team, they will get clobbered.
I've discussed my man love for Gregg Popovich in the past, but I'm also really an admired of the whole Spurs organization. They've managed to building their team around Duncan (and before that Robinson) and keep it strong for years. They don't seem like a house of cards the way a team like the Mavericks do either. Every season, everybody expects them to be a contender and every year they are. They've got a good coach and a deep bench and that makes them very tough to beat.</GreekHouse>
December 12th, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories: Featured Articles, MLB, Minnesota Twins
Tags: Free Agents, Marcel, Nick Punto, Projections
Twins Geek gives his take on the Punto deal here. Mainly, I'm using his post for the list of supposedly available shortstops. I hate compiling such lists and I'm happy that other people do it.
Anyway, if we want to compare offense amongst players who you are considering putting on a 2009 team, we ought to be concerned with what they will hit next year, not what they hit last year. Every year fangraphs has various projections available. (They also have the ever-so-controversial MGL UZR fielding numbers for everyone there now.) Usually this includes ZiPS, CHONE, Bill James, and Marcel. I believe ZiPS usually fares better than all of those projections, and for whatever reason, the last couple of years the Bill James projections have always seemed wildly optimistic to me.
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December 12th, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories: Featured Articles, MLB
Tags: Delmon Young, Geoff Baker, Trade Speculation
Introducing the comedic stylings of Geoff Baker:
As for the Twins, the one outfielder they could possibly make available -- besides the expensive, underachieving Michael Cuddyer -- is former top-pick Delmon Young. Young would be an interesting left field addition for the Mariners, with the ability to play either right field or center as well. He would give them the power they are looking for. The question is whether the Twins would want to deal Young, who had issues with Twins coaches after his trade from the Tampa Bay Rays for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett last year. As good as Beltre is, the Twins know they'd only have him for a year.
Q: Has Delmon Young hired Geoff Baker as his agent?
December 11th, 2008 by ubelmann
Categories:
