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2008 Game 38: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins

Jesse Litsch vs. Kevin Slowey

Litsch has been pretty good so far this year. Slightly above average in ground balls, average K-rate, and outstanding walk rate. All combined together, he's sporting a 3.69 xFIP.

I'm not really worried at all about Slowey so far. 6.9 K/G, 0.0 BB/G, and 37% GB% are all better rates than he had last year. It'd be nice if he got a few more ground balls, but I think he's probably just not that kind of pitcher.

Going into Monday, the Twins were hitting .311/.371/.452 as a team so far with runners in scoring position and .259/.299/.366 with no one on base. So either they are a super-clutch team, they have trouble starting rallies, their team speed is making it tough for pitchers to pitch, or they have trouble focusing without runners on base. Or it's just dumb luck.

Toronto is hitting .264/.341/.386 with no one on base, and .209/.297/.284 (!) with runners in scoring position. Chokers.

It's going to be frustrating if I see Delmon's name in the lineup today. He's been struggling, could probably use a day off anyway, and likely won't be 100% after rolling his ankle a bit last night.

[SBG] I've been absent for the most part over the last week or so and I hope that I'll be around a little tonight. I really enjoy the game logs -- they have been a lot of fun. The spirit around here is tremendous. We can criticize, cheer, whoop it up, and blow this sh*t up, as required. The goal here is to have fun and visit with your fellow citizens. And to enjoy the game. In that order, I think. The game is really secondary to the discussion. Do I have you confused? Sorry about that. Just remember to relax and enjoy the WGOM. [/SBG]

Minor League Bonanza

Rochester Red Wings

.327/.387/.584 -- Darnell McDonald, 2008, 101 AB

Congrats to McDonald for having one of the best stretches of his professional career, but he's been kicking around AAA so long that he was playing for the Red Wings when they were an Orioles affiliate 7 years ago. At age 30, his early season success is not an indication that he's turned any kind of corner and doesn't figure to help the Twins win any games. It's nice that he's been able to help Rochester out, though.

.290/.347/.452 -- Brian Buscher, 2008, 93 AB

That's a decent enough line for a first full season at AAA, but I'm not seeing much power. For a guy without much in the way of defensive skills, I'm pretty unimpressed.

.219/.350/.250 -- Alexi Casilla, 2008, 96 AB

That's kind of a funny trick, with an OBP 100 points higher than his SLG and all, but really, what reason do major league pitchers have to pitch carefully to him? I don't see how he's going to walk much in the majors unless he starts hitting for average again. Plus, he's been error-prone and the one set of minor league fielding stats I've looked at (SAFE runs--created for BP by Dan Fox, who just got hired by the Pirates' new front office) have him as below average overall, so I have serious doubts about how good his range is going to be. I won't blame Gardy if he uses Casilla almost exclusively as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

.175/.228/.307 -- Garrett Jones, 2008, 114 AB

Just like Jones wasn't as good as his fluky singles rate last year made him seen, he's also not this bad. Still, I really don't want Jones anywhere near the major league roster.

.247/.296/.349 -- Jason Pridie, 2008, 146 AB

Pridie's a career .277/.324/.427 hitter in the minors, so I think he can do better than this, but probably not a whole lot better. He still looks like a guy with a 4th OF ceiling.

.304/.415/.348 -- Denard Span, 2008, 69 AB

I like to see the walks, but Span has to start at least hitting some doubles if he's going to keep up that walk rate in the majors. He's a career .283 hitter in the minors, so I kind of doubt his potential to hit for average in the majors. With no power and a mediocre average, his best case scenario is to become TynyOF, Jr. (Except that Delmon already beat him to the punch.)

.248/.276/.327 -- Jose Morales, 2008, 101 AB

Morales got some people excited with his .311 average last year in Rochester, but he's a career .277/.323/.367 with little chance of being anything more than an emergency catcher in the majors, unless his defensive skills are a lot better than the Twins are touting them to be. (And he only has 9 CS with 22 SB against so far this year.)

38.0 IP, 36 K, 15 BB, 5 HR -- Kevin Mulvey, 2008

His ERA is ~4.00 now, but I'm still pretty happy with how Mulvey has thrown so far. Lots of strikeouts and a fairly reasonable walk rate. Right now, his numbers are eerily similar to Bonser's first year (at age 23 no less) in Rochester:

154.0 IP, 8.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.99 ERA -- Boof Bonser, 2005, age 23
38.0 IP, 8.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 4.03 ERA -- Kevin Mulvey, 2008, age 23

Combined with Mulvey's fairly solid track record going into this year, he seems like he can be a decent pitcher for the Twins in the future.

34.0 IP, 21 K, 16 BB, 2 HR -- Philip Humber, 2008

Meh. Needs more control. Positive: hasn't gotten re-injured.

33.1 IP, 27 K, 17 BB, 2 HR -- Glen Perkins, 2008

Meh. Needs more control. Positive: hasn't gotten re-injured.

19.1 IP, 15 K, 14 BB, 1 HR -- Francisco Liriano, 2008

Meh. Needs more control. Positive: hasn't gotten re-injured.

New Britain Rock Cats

.322/.386/.461 -- Dustin Martin, 2008, 115 AB

That's an alright line if he's got good defensive skills, but still, not a whole lot of power to speak of. His career minor league line is .302/.376/.439. There's a certain school of thought that good hitters can develop into power hitters but that power hitters have trouble developing into good hitters. It seems possible that Martin could fall into former category, but the Twins don't exactly have a stellar track record of developing hitters with power. Overall, his future outlook seems to be that of a major league backup. (Which, honestly, isn't so much different than the sort of value you get on average with a late 1st round draft pick.)

.290/.338/.427 -- Trevor Plouffe, 2008, 124 AB

Not too awful for a SS if he's got the defensive abilities that the Twins think he has.

.388/.448/.682 -- Luke Hughes, 2008, 129 AB

Hughes is a career .274/.331/.408 hitter. His strikeouts and walks look about the same as last year. I'd call this a fluke performance, and if we're really optimistic about Hughes his combined line at AA last year and this year is .313/.382/.509. He looks like the next Matt Tolbert to me. I guess there are worse fates in prospectdom.

.248/.310/.376 -- Matt Moses, 2008, 133 AB

Not a prospect.

.192/.286/.218 -- Drew Butera, 2008, 78 AB

The only position where you can put up with offensive "production" like that is pitcher.

36.0 IP, 23 K, 6 BB, 4 HR -- Yohan Pino, 2008

Scouts thought that the strikeouts would vanish as he started facing better hitters, and so far they have. Maybe a bullpen option some day?

23.1 IP, 21 K, 12 BB, 0 HR, 0 GS, 0.23 ERA -- Zach Ward, 2008

The bullpen has treated Ward alright so far. Control has been a bit of a problem, but his career walk rate suggests that should improve some. Probably won't be a shut-down reliever, but might be a useful middle innings option some day.

44.1 IP, 25 K, 19 BB, 3 HR -- Ryan Mullins, 2008

Meh. It's pretty early, but his strikeout rate has dipped and his walk rate has increased. At 24, isn't exactly young for AA. He could still be useful in some role, but I don't see much to get excited about here.

Ft. Myers Miracle

.323/.403/.492 -- Daniel Valencia, 2008

At 23, he's kind of old for High A, so I'd like to see what he could do in AA, but Hughes is currently blocking him there. So far, so good with the bat, though.

.225/.293/.369 -- Wilson Ramos, 2008

Ramos had a solid year in Beloit last year, and got ranked highly on Baseball America's Twins prospect list last year, but he's struggled so far this year. Fortunately, the walks and most of the power are still there.

.219/.402/.411 -- Whitney Robbins, 2008

Robbins has had a lot of trouble hitting for average in high A--both this year and last--but this year his walk rate is crazy and a nearly .200 ISO in the FSL is actually pretty good. What's almost even more baffling is that he doesn't have a ton of strikeouts like you might expect with a low-average, high-power guy. He probably doesn't have much of a future, but might be worth keeping an eye on as a potential future DH.

39.0 IP, 37 K, 13 BB, 0 HR -- Jeff Manship, 2008

Control could maybe be better, but at 23 I'm not really sure what he's still doing in Florida.

36.1 IP, 36 K, 16 BB, 1 HR -- Tyler Robertson, 2008

Also, control could maybe be better, but he's looking good. At age 20, this seems like the right level for him so far.

33.1 IP, 21 K, 12 BB, 2 HR -- Deolis Guerra, 2008

He's young for the FSL, but I'm still not terribly impressed. Still a long ways off.

Beloit Snappers

.392/.436/.529 -- Ben Revere, 2008, 51 AB

Not much in the way of walks, but when we're dealing with small sample sizes and you're hitting .392, I can live with a certain amount of aggression. Revere's a career .339/.398/.475 hitter so far and has started his career a lot better than Denard Span did, at least.

.226/.312/.363 -- Joe Benson, 2008, 124 AB

Walk rate's okay, power's okay for a CF in the MWL. The low average is a concern, even adjusting for the rigors of the MWL. I guess I can see where people see the potential, but I can't say I'm much of a fan until he shows he can hit at least .270 or so.

.233/.377/.485 -- Chris Parmelee, 2008, 103 AB

Our very own Rob Deer? Or perhaps Jack Cust? He's been getting on base and hitting for power, but his batting average is a concern for now.

Overall

I don't see any sure-thing star regulars in the farm system at the moment, but there are a few players that should help the Twins fill out the odds and ends of their roster for cheap in the future.

2008 Game 37: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Clay Buchholz vs. Livan Hernandez

Programming note: Beware the 6pm CT ESPN start time.

Buccholz has a 3.45 xFIP so far, to go with a ZiPS-projected 4.47 ERA. Lots of strikeouts (8.9 K/G), and an uspectacular/poorish walk rate (3.4 BB/G), and a decent ground balll rate (44% GB%). I certainly think he'll turn out to be a better pitcher than Jon Lester.

Livan managed to tame the Tigers when he faced them last, and it still kind of baffles my mind that he was able to do that. Can he do it to the Red Sox? I kind of doubt it, but a lot of pitchers will struggle with this lineup this year, so that's not necessarily a huge knock on Livan.

A velocity comparison:

Fastball:
84.1 mph -- Livan Hernandez
83.8 mph -- Barry Zito

Slider:
77.8 mph -- Livan (19.6% of all pitches)
75.7 mph -- Zito (only 2.5% of his pitches this year)

Curveball:
64.4 mph -- Livan
69.4 mph -- Zito

Change:
74.7 mph -- Livan
73.1 mph -- Zito

Right now, I think it's a safe bet to say that Livan Hernandez has better stuff than Barry Zito. (I even kind of like that Livan's curve is soooo slow, since it seems to help upset hitters' timing pretty well.) Holy crap it must be hard to be a Giants fan sometimes.

The Buffet Table

To a certain degree, Blackburn, Bonser, and Hernandez have all been approximately league average pitchers who have made every start and given the Twins innings. Baker's the closest thing they've had to an ace, but he's had plenty of trouble staying in the rotation. Some other notables:

The Kiddie Table
10.3 IP, 6.94 xFIP -- Francisco Liriano
8.3 IP, 3.58 xFIP -- Kevin Slowey
6.0 IP, 4.78 xFIP -- Glen Perkins

Slowey's had good peripherals so far and should be pretty darned good if his HR/FB regresses to the mean--hopefully sooner rather than later.

Eating Out
52.7 IP, 3.18 xFIP -- Johan Santana
52.0 IP, 4.82 xFIP -- Carlos Silva
25.7 IP, 5.37 xFIP -- Matt Garza

Garza's performance so far has been unspectacular to say the least. (Though I'm still trying to wrap my head around how Delmon has been hitting worse than Jason Tyner so far. I mean, yeah, I didn't expect the moon or the stars from Delmon, but really? Worse than TynyLF?)

Santana has the best xFIP in the NL to date and he's been eating innings.

2008 Game 36: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Tim Wakefield vs. Nick Blackburn

I don't think I really have anything particularly worth saying today. I'm sure we'll hear about Wakefield's previous success in domes about 10,000 times during the broadcast.

Happy Mother's Day.

Great Moments in Enhanced Gameday History - 10 May 2008, inning 2

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2008 Game 35: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Dice-K vs. Glen Perkins

Dice-K has 27 walks in 40.7 IP this year. Holy walks, batman. I've got a good feeling about Morneau vs. Dice-K today.

For all the same reasons I don't really believe that much in Jon Lester as a top pitching prospect, I have serious doubts about Perkins. Mainly, I just don't know that he's going to be able to throw enough strikes without catching too much of the plate. In that sense, the Red Sox seem like a nightmare matchup for him, and if the strike zone is at all small, it could be a long night for the bullpen.

Hitting comparison!

.254/.324/.443 -- MIN, 1B
.311/.415/.553 -- BOS, 1B

A 91-point edge in OBP and a 53-point edge in SLG for Boston. And Morneau hasn't even been a complete disaster so far.

.243/.268/.313 -- MIN, 3B
.292/.340/.444 -- BOS, 3B

72-point edge in OBP, and an 82-point edge in SLG for Boston.

.264/.308/.304 -- MIN, LF (AKA TynyLF Mark II)
.295/.375/.521 -- BOS, LF (AKA Manny being Manny)

Our left fielder has an OBP higher than his SLG. It's like having Luis Castillo out there, except without all of the infield hits and eccentricities.

.258/.306/.339 -- MIN, RF
.281/.372/.422 -- BOS, RF

Another position where the Twins just get smacked around.

.258/.278/.414 -- MIN, DH
.245/.343/.435 -- BOS, DH

And that's with Ortiz's awful start to the season.

I suspect that regression to the mean will work in the Twins' favor at these positions as the season wears on, but these ought to be the easiest positions to get offense out of, but for whatever reason getting offense from these positions is like trying to make lemonade from apples for the Twins.

How about that Gomez kid?

Over Gomez's last 10 games, he's hitting .385/.429/.641. The kid's been hot. If he could consistently get on base at a .400 clip, he would easily be an All-Star. Barring a complete overhaul in his approach at the plate, he's not going to be able to do that, but he's got basically a league average OPS so far this year. If you account for his position and his stolen bases, he's been a well above average contributor to the Twins so far this season. VORP totals haven't been updated to include Friday's game yet, but here is the VORP through the conclusion of the series against the White Sox:

9.4 -- Joe Mauer
5.7 -- Justin Morneau
5.7 -- Carlos Gomez
2.8 -- Craig Monroe
2.2 -- Matt Tolbert
1.4 -- Brendan Harris
0.7 -- Nick Punto
0.4 -- Michael Cuddyer
-0.6 -- Mike Redmond
-2.2 -- Jason Kubel
-2.9 -- Delmon Young
-3.7 -- Adam Everett
-7.1 -- Mike Lamb

I don't know that my overall opinion of him has really changed, but he's definitely been good so far, and he's certainly fun to watch.

The other thing I've noticed about Gomez is that he's been scoring like crazy when he gets on base. He's scored 21 runs so far despite reaching base only 40 times, for about a 53% scoring rate . Certainly it helps to have the heart of the order coming up behind him, but that's pretty nice. For comparison, Rickey Henderson (who also hit leadoff a bit) scored about 43% of the time he reached base as a major leaguer.

Switching away from Gomez for a second: how do you assemble one of the league's worst offenses? Forfeit all of your production from corner positions.

Morneau and Monroe have been positive contributors, but Cuddyer, Span, Delmon, Kubel, and Lamb have combined to be about 11 runs below replacement level so far. Not 11 runs below average, but 11 runs below replacement level. Those guys need to step up if the Twins are going to have anything approaching a functional offense going forward.

2008 Game 33: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Jon Lester vs. Boof Bonser

Jon Lester is one of those pitchers I just don't "get." Or rather, I don't understand where all the hype comes from. In the minors, Lester had 203 walks in 486 innings, and holy crap that's a lot of walks. As one might reasonably expect, his walk rate has increased now that he's facing better hitters. He's allowed 100 walks in 190 innings, for a rather crazy 4.7 BB/9 rate. And he hasn't exactly been showing progress--so far this year he's allowed 26 walks in 45.7 innings, for a 5.1 BB/9 rate.

To be particularly valuable with a walk rate like that, you'd better be missing an awful lot of bats or getting an awful lot of ground balls. Lester has been getting ground balls (46 GB%) at about a league average rate (45% GB%) so far, but his strikeout rate this year (5.2 K/G) is below league average (6.2 K/G).

I hear he has the famous "bulldog mentality" on the mound and it's true that he throws with his left hand, but I don't think he's going to be above replacement level unless he can really improve his control, and I doubt he's going to improve his control very much at this stage of his career.

Boof's had a really low walk rate so far this year, but it figures to go up as tonight's contest wears on. The Red Sox have 138 walks so far this season--good for 3rd most in the AL--nearly twice as many walks as the Twins have (70).

It'll be interesting tonight to see if Boof can put the ball across the plate and be successful against a good group of patient hitters, and whether or not the Twins can be patient enough to take advantage of Lester's biggest weakness.

Oh yeah, I'll mention that I wrote the Dugout Splinters that will appear in the Minnesota Gameday programs for the Boston series, if that makes you more likely to buy one as you're going to a game this weekend. And if it makes you less likely to buy one...forget I mentioned it.

Gold Glove Wines - Trapiche Malbec (Mendoza) 2006

“By the year 2015, the greatness of Argentinean wines made from the Malbec grape will be understood as a given. This French varietal has reached startling heights of quality in Argentina . Both inexpensive, delicious Malbecs and majestic, profoundly complex ones from high-elevation vineyards are already being produced, and by 2015 this long-ignored grape's place in the pantheon of noble wines will be guaranteed.”
—Robert Parker in Food & Wine, October 2004

About the time Mr. Parker was typing these words, my affinity for the Malbec grape was beginning to pick up steam. By 2004, I had tried a few Malbecs but was not as impressed with the grape as I am today. About this time, I stumbled across Bodega Norton Malbec and was very impressed. Soon, I was trying different labels of Malbec and liking most of them.

As I continue my little virtual wine tour south of the equator, I could not pass up this noble Bordeaux grape. I decided to review the Trapiche 2006 Mendoza Malbec as Trapiche is an Argentinian giant when it come to making wine. Not only has Trapiche been around well over 100 years, but the winery is both a high volume wine producer, and a critically acclaimed wine-maker as well. (These two traits don't always go hand in hand when it comes to wineries).
Continue reading Gold Glove Wines - Trapiche Malbec (Mendoza) 2006... »

2008 Game 33: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Inflatables

Kevin Slowey vs. John Danks

The phrase "numbers can't tell you (something that numbers can probably tell you" gets thrown a lot in baseball coverage. Well, I'm here to tell you that numbers can't tell you whether or not Kevin Slowey's bicep is pain-free, or whether his bicep is fully healed. But I sure hope that it is. If it isn't, Livan ate all the innings last night, so the bullpen is probably hungry.

Apropos of nothing in particular:

3167 R, 2147 ER, 7354.7 IP -- Cy Young (you know, that guy they named the award after), career
1885 R, 1707 ER, 4916.7 IP -- Roger Clemens

For every two earned runs that Cy Young yielded, he also gave up an unearned run.

Let's write that a little differently:

3.88 RA, 2.63 ERA -- Cy Young
3.45 RA, 3.13 ERA -- Roger Clemens

And for full effect:

1.25 UERA -- Cy Young
0.33 UERA -- Roger Clemens

Once upon a time, the distinction between earned runs and unearned runs was important. That time has passed.

2008 Game 32: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Inflatables

Livan Hernandez vs. Mark Buehrle

I don't know what it is--perhaps a sort of "playing with house money" effect--but I can't help but be amused whenever Livan is pitching these days. My reaction when he gives up a big home run isn't so much "Oh no! How will we win now?" but rather "That ball might never land!" as I chuckle to myself.

Most of the time when coaches talk about how much a guy likes to compete, or how smart he is on the mound, it's because they don't have anything nice to say about him that can be verified. And clearly no one is going to go trashing their own players, especially when they just signed them. But I feel like I can see that a little bit out there with Livan. Offseason claims of him having no stuff seem a little overblown to me in that he seems to still have some pitches with good movement, even if he has no velocity left. The low velocity gives him a small margin for error, but having seen him for a while, I'm less concerned about the possibility of "Livan Time" turning into "Lima Time."

Bert often brings up Jamie Moyer as a comparison to Livan, but I think another good comparison might be another Hernandez--Orlando Hernandez. Livan throws his fastball a little more often than El Duque (60% to 50%) and El Duque throws the curve a little more often (~15% to ~9%), but both of them now essentially have mid-80s fastballs which force them to get a lot of movement and hit their spots with their various offspeed offerings.

Anyway, this ends today's episode of Dr. Strangeglove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Livan.

The Bright Spot

Since April 14th:

72 PA, 61 AB, 24 H, 7 2B, 1 3B, 11 BB, 3 SO, .393/.486/.541

Thank you kindly, Mr. Mauer.

2008 Game 31: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago (Expletive)

Nick Blackburn vs. Gavin Floyd

Floyd's peripherals were bad the last time we faced him, and they haven't gotten any better. Boof denied his unicorn last time, and now it's time for Blackburn to deny it yet again.

Random crap because I don't have much else to say about the pitching matchup:

- Jon Garland has but 10 strikeouts over 44 innings pitched, for 2 K/G. Sure, he's getting some ground balls, but that's just ridiculous.

- Fausto Carmona has an incredibly weird line so far: 2.60 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 5.52 xFIP, 3.2 K/G, 6.4 BB/G, 66.1% GB%. It's like someone crossed his wires turning his walks into strikeouts and vice versa.

- Actually, maybe Cliff Lee is some kind of pitching vampire that stole Carmona's strikeout abilities: 2.81 xFIP, 9.4 K/G, 0.6 BB/G, 45.3 GB%. He's faced a lot of weak lineups, and it's just April, but that's still pretty bizarre.

- Johan Santana's 3.07 xFIP leads the NL.

- Brad Wilkerson was recently released (or DFA, or something) by the Mariners after hitting just .232/.348/.304 to start the season. A comparison:

.232/.348/.304 -- 2008, Wilkerson, age 31
.216/.234/.284 -- 2008, Lamb, age 32

.251/.357/.442 -- career, park-adjusted, Wilkerson
.264/.315/.392 -- career, park-adjusted, Lamb

- The Top 5 in PrOPS in baseball: Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Albert Pujols, Nick Johnson, Chipper Jones

- The Top 5 in PrOPS in the AL: Carlos Quentin, Jack Cust, Jason Giambi, Adrian Beltre, Eric Hinske (that's a bizarre list) Quentin has arguably been unlucky so far and has hit .271/.407/.583.

- Nick Swisher's PrOPS is .861 so far, compared to his actual OPS of .666, so it looks like he's been pretty unlucky lately. Not that I mind.

- Victor Martinez leads the AL in line drive percentage (LD%). Jhonny Peralta is worst. (And go figure, but David Oritz is third-worst.)

- Joe Crede has the lowest ground ball percentage (GB%) in the AL. Julio Lugo and Derek Jeter have the highest. Delmon Young has the 5th-highest, sandwiched between David Eckstein and Ichiro Suzuki.

- Nine qualified AL hitters, including Delmon, have yet to hit an infield fly ball this season.

- Ten qualified AL hitters, including Delmon, Mauer, Lamb, Bartlett, and Jeter have yet to hit a HR this season.

Twins Through 30

Twenty games ago, I took a look at the Twins Through 10. I've really not had a whole lot of time to write here lately, and I have no illusions that I'll keep any recurring feature going. However, I've got a few minutes here so I thought I'd pump out a quick review of the Twins through 30 games.

Our boys are sitting relatively pretty with a 16-14 record and currently have the best record in what has been a decidedly mediocre American League Central. I've heard a couple of times lately that the members of the AL Central are "beating each other up" and that's why the clubs have relatively crappy records. Now, Buzz Bissinger can paint bloggers with a broad brush, but I've heard members of the so-called mainstream media passing this meme off as some sort of fact. I hate to bring a bushel of negativity and meanness to the discussion -- ah, what the hell. This is some sort of Online Magazine/Blog, so meanness is what I do. So, in the spirit of that meanness, let's look at the numbers. In games played between AL Central teams and teams outside the division, the AL Central teams are a combined 34-43. If you project that over a 162 game schedule, you'll see that the AL Central is playing at a 72-90 pace against teams outside the division. The Twins are 12-6 in the division, and 4-8 outside the division. The only team with a losing record within the division is the Tigers, who are 4-12 in the Central and 10-6 (the only winning record among the five times) outside the division.

I'm on record as saying that 75 wins are enough for me to consider this season a successful one. A co-worker came by my office on Monday and reminded me of that. I showed the Twins Pythagorean record, projected it out over 162 games and came up with, wait for it, a 75 win team. I think that's what we have and so, I'll enjoy games like Sunday without building expectations about this team. So far, I'm pleased with how things have gone, but I'm expecting that they'll sink back to that 75 win pace in their record, eventually (the Twins are 7-4 in one run games... a little luck is what has this team playing above their projected record, speaking of luck, did you see that five hopper that Mauer squeaked through the infield in the seventh inning of Sunday's game?). All of this is not to be negative... heck, I'm happy about things so far. It's just my thinking about where this team is heading.

Last time out, I checked on the Twins record by runs scored. If you remember, or even if you don't, here's a chart of expected winning percentage against runs scored:

Runs Scored Winning Percentage
0 0.000
1 0.083
2 0.246
3 0.318
4 0.419
5 0.616
6 0.695
7 0.771
8 0.874
9 0.871
10+ 0.938

Yep, that ninth run is pesky. In 30 games, the Twins have had the following run distribution scored and allowed.

Based on their runs scored distribution, they should have 12.66 wins, even less than their Pythagorean number (14 wins), given an average pitching staff. Based on their runs allowed distribution, they should have 16.34 wins, given an average offense. They've gotten pretty decent starting pitching and although their team ERA+ is just 97, some of that is skewed by some poor performances by the likes of Francisco Liriano. The Twins are overperforming their Pythagorean number because of consistent pitching, but that should be no news to anyone paying attention. The team, though, doesn't have an average offense, it has one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. So, one would expect the team to continue to underperform their runs allowed distribution, shouldn't one? Well, maybe, but then again, the optimist can point to things like Joe Nathan's dominance. He's been lights out, protecting small leads and turning them into wins. Perhaps Mike Lamb will stop hitting like, well, a lamb. Perhaps Delmon Young will quit hitting like some sort of, um, cat. Perhaps the Twins will start to come back down to earth.

For the season-to-date, the Twins offensive has been generally anemic. They've scored just 124 runs (4.13/game), thirteenth in the AL. They are hitting .266/.310/.374/.684 with a ridiculously low .044 IsoD (their 63 walks are easily the worst in the AL). Over the last 20 games, the Twins are hitting just .267/.305/.372/.677, so if you think things are getting better, you are wrong. The Twins have 5 pretty much automatic outs in their lineup right now: Gomez (.296 OBP), Kubel (.264 OBP!), DelMON (.306 OBP), Everett (.200 OBP), and Lamb (.234 OBP). That makes it pretty hard to score a lot of runs. I happened to hear Top Jimmy, while praising Joe Mauer on Sunday, say that Mauer's RBI total isn't where you'd like it (14). Well, he's knocked in 18.7% of the runners on base when he bats, fifth on the team. But, when there are so many automatic outs in front of him, you just aren't going to get that many opportunities. For the record, Mike Lamb leads the team by knocking in 21.6% of the runners on base when he bats (not much different from Joe). I guess he's clutch, or something, what with his propensity to drive in runs with his .234 OBP. So, take that for what it's worth.

It’s May, I Guess Peeking At The Standings Is Allowed

Where are we now?

Up is down! Black is white! Various types of livestock have acquired the ability to fly!

Based only on season-to-date performance, how well might we expect these teams to be going forward?

Huh, Cleveland has been pretty bad so far.

What does the playoff picture look like?

Average projected wins to win the AL Central: 94.8. Current Twins wins: 16.

2008 Game 30: Detroit Tigers vs. FIRST PLACE Minnesota Twins

Kenny Rogers vs. Boof

At the moment, I have two thoughts:

1) Being in first place is nice, regardless of how long it lasts.

2) Kenny Rogers 2003 reminds me of Kyle Lohse 2008. (Expected multi-year deal, nothing doing on that front, signed contract in the middle of spring training, figure to be a league average-ish pitcher nonetheless.)

2008 Game 29: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins

Justin Verlander vs. Scott Baker

I've been making Verlander/Baker comparisons for as long as I can remember knowing about both players, even if no one seems to care at times. But here I go again (on my own/goin' down the only road I've ever known/like a drifter I was born to walk alone?):

10.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 -- Justin Verlander, Age 22, A/AA
7.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 -- Scott Baker, Age 22, A/AA/AAA

That's where it all started. The point wasn't that Baker was better than Verlander, or even quite as good, but that the difference between the two just isn't all that big.

6.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9 -- Justin Verlander, MLB career
6.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 -- Scott Baker, MLB career

The difference in strikeout rate has been much less pronounced in the majors, and Baker's edge in walk rate has grown, though he has been more susceptible to the long ball. (Park adjustments would probably close that game somewhat.)

4.62 xFIP -- Justin Verlander, career
4.47 xFIP -- Scott Baker, career

And combining everything together, Baker's actually looked somewhat better than Verlander over his career. Verlander has had, for the most part, much better defensive support, and pitches in a gigantic cavern of a ballpark. So Verlander's team's results have looked better, but that's not necessarily because Verlander was pitching better.

Now, over the long haul, PECOTA liked Verlander more going into this season than it liked Baker (Verlander gets roughly twice Baker's expected VORP over the next seven seasons), so it could be that Verlander is just getting hitters to make weaker contact and has a BABIP edge over Baker even when you take fielding out of the equation. Still, I'm inclined to disagree with PECOTA mostly in that I think it is overrating Verlander.

Verlander's gotten off to an awful start this year, apparently losing a lot of velocity on his fastball, and has a 5.56 xFIP. Obviously, it's early and he could turn things around, but Tigers fans have to be at least a little concerned. For Baker's part, if he can stay healthy, I still think he'll be pretty good this year.

As was the case yesterday, and as will likely be the case all season, the Tigers will be bringing one of the best offenses in baseball to the game, and the Twins will be bringing one of the worst...so that will probably have some effect on the game, too.

[Also, in my ongoing quest to figure out what the root of Bert's problem with Baker is, my guess is that he's upset that he's not throwing his curveball enough to make Bert fondly remember his own curve. According to Baker's fangraphs data, he's gone from ~14% curves in '05-'06 to ~7-8% curves in '07-'08. For comparison, Boof has always thrown at least ~13% curves. Baker has replaced those curves (and some of his fastballs) with sliders--a pitch that Bert has stated he doesn't like much as the curve for a couple of reasons.

Or maybe Baker put some Icy Hot in Bert's jock as a practical joke. It's difficult to figure out what's going on in Bert's head sometimes.]

Fun With Endpoints

Joe Mauer before the first game against Detroit:

44 PA, .250/.279/.300

Joe Mauer from the first game against Detroit through today:

60 PA, .353/.450/.471

Needless to say, I like the second line better, and I hope Mauer keeps up his recent hot hitting.

2008 Game 28: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins

Livan Hernandez vs. Armando Galarraga

I'm not sure exactly what to make of Galarraga. On one hand, it took him forever to get out of Rookie/A-ball, but he had a pretty decent year last year between AA/AAA, and it wasn't like he was super old for that level. His overall peripherals in the minors aren't all that bad, either. I would guess that he's probably had injury troubles in the past? I'm not sure. Anyway, looking at the overall picture, I would say it looks like he'll get a mediocre to slightly-worse-than-mediocre strikeout rate, a slightly-worse-than-medicore walk rate, and a slightly-above-average groundball rate. Sort of a poor man's Jeff Suppan.

Livan Hernandez:Tigers::Gasoline:Rusty Lighter

Sure, maybe that rusty lighter doesn't always work, but I'm still really uncomfortable when the gasoline is anywhere near the lighter. Bass has had four days off and is ready for leftovers in case Livan isn't very hungry tonight.

The Buffet Table

Truth be told, I probably would've wanted Hughes, Garza, Slowey, Liriano, Baker on the roster for long-term building purposes, which would have turned out to be an injury/rehab nightmare in the short term--but likely wouldn't have required dropping Blackburn, Bass, or Bonser, so it would have still been a manageable nightmare.

Baker's xFIP will almost certainly slip some, and I expect Blackburn's xFIP to regress towards 4.50, hopefully staying put around there. Livan will probably also continue regressing. With some luck, Slowey's return should offset some of that regression.

Checking in with Johan Santana

I hadn't checked up on Santana in a while, so when I heard about this, I figured I would take a peek at Santana's numbers.

Though I don't think that ERA accurately reflects how well a pitcher has pitched, it has been Santana's early-season ERA that spawned the belief that Santana is a slow starter. Let's take a look at his March/April ERA since he's been a starter full-time:

5.40 -- 2004
3.55 -- 2005
4.45 -- 2006
3.60 -- 2007
3.12 -- 2008

His career ERA as a starter is 3.11. There was a legitimate reason for his slow start in 2004--he had bone chips removed from his elbow in the offseason and there's normally an adjustment period after that procedure. So, other than that, 2006 stands out, and 2005/2007 are both worse than average...but I'm not seeing a very big effect here. Maybe Santana's something like a 3.50 pitcher in April, with one good outlier ('08) and one bad outlier ('06) and the surgery adjustment year.

Now for the good stuff:

9.6 K/G, 2.0 BB/G, 46.8 GB%, 3.14 xFIP -- Santana, 2008

Going by the numbers at fangraphs, I get Santana's career average to be 37.8% GB%. Santana was getting more ground balls in 2004-6 than he did last year, which I think was due in large part to his blister problems being worse than usual and preventing him from throwing his slider as often. Sure enough, he's back up to 14.7% sliders this year (15.0% career average) from 11.6% sliders last year. If his 3.14 xFIP (not adjusted for park or league, mind you) holds up, it would be his best xFIP as a starter.

As for info on other players mentioned in trade rumors (though not necessarily actual trade proposals), small sample size rules in full effect:

Phil Hughes -- As I alluded to at the top, he just went on the DL. Injury problems could help explain his rather wretched start to the season. Long-term, I still think he'll be a good pitcher, but I think the biggest knock on him in the off-season was the potential for injury, and this doesn't help.

Ian Kennedy -- 5.88 xFIP, more walks than strikeouts. Yikes. He was projected by PECOTA to have a ~4.30 ERA, and ZiPS had him at 4.38...something seems weird here. I'm willing to call this a small sample size mirage for now.

Jon Lester -- 5.11 xFIP, more walks than strikeouts. PECOTA had him projected for a ~5.30 ERA, ZiPS had him projected for a ~5.00 ERA. I still don't see what the big deal is. He's just slightly less overrated than Glen Perkins as far as I can tell.

Philip Humber -- 4.5 K/G, 3.8 BB/G, 0.7 HR/G for Rochester. Looks like he would be a total disaster in the majors right now with that line, since you'd figure the K/G to go down some, the BB/G to go up some, and the HR/G to go way up, since major league hitters have a lot more power than minor league hitters.

Kevin Mulvey -- 8.7 K/G, 3.2 BB/G, 0.3 HR/G for Rochester. (Roughly a 2.70 FIP.) Perhaps performing better than any non-Santana pitcher mentioned in Santana trade rumors, Mulvey has gotten off to a very good start in AAA. Projected to have a ~5.00 major league ERA this year by PECOTA, I wouldn't be surprised if Mulvey has just as good of a major league career as Jon Lester, if not better.

Justin Masterson -- 11.4 K/G, 3.3 BB/G, 0.0 HR/G for Pawtucket. Has been called up to the Red Sox and made one start. Masterson's right there with Mulvey--probably a little ahead of him--for early season performance. Long-term, I'd guess he has similar value to Mulvey and Lester.

Deolis Guerra -- Still pitching in High A. Still really young.

Melky Cabrera -- Hitting a robust .299/.370/.494, for an 8.7 VORP, which would be the best VORP on our offense.

Jacoby Ellsbury -- .280/.396/.440, for a 7.6 VORP, which would also be the best VORP on our offense.

Carlos Gomez -- .265/.279/.373, for a 1.9 VORP, which would also be the best VORP on our offense which is the 5th-best VORP on our offense. Okay, got a little carried away there. Now, VORP does take into account his stolen bases, so no giving him extra credit there, but he seems to be playing at least average defense in the field. If there was just one problem with the Twins in April (and I count more than one problem) Gomez was not that problem.

He's struck out 24% of the time he's stepped to the plate, which is a lot of strikeouts. But, for a little bit of context, he's not anywhere near the league lead in that category. Of 279 hitters with 50 or more PA, he ranks 27th in most strikeouts per PA. Of 234 hitters with 75 or more PA, he ranks 22nd in most strikeouts per PA. Some guys ahead of him on the list (and their K-rate):

34% -- Mark Reynolds
32% -- Ryan Howard
30% -- Jack Cust
29% -- Carlos Pena
27% -- Jack Hannahan
26% -- Jim Thome
25% -- Richie Sexson
25% -- Bill Hall
24% -- Jason Varitek

Meanwhile, Brendan Harris has been striking out at a nearly-as-awful 22% rate and no one seems to have noticed. It's clear that to succeed with a high strikeout rate, you've gotta have some power, and I think Gomez really might develop that power. His ISO is just as good as Cuddyer's so far this season, and the only regulars hitting for more power are Morneau and Kubel. (Certainly he's shown more power then Delmon Young.)

Anyway, I'm getting a bit off on a tangent. The trade really doesn't look any different today than it did when we made it. I still would have probably preferred Hughes/Cabrera/stuff⁽¹⁾ (especially if 'stuff' was halfway decent), but I'm not really sure what was being offered, and what we wound up with probably won't turn out to be a lot worse than that, and could turn out to be better. There's a lot of risk involved with trying to predict the future.

1. I'm not really sure that I think holding on to Hughes/Cabrera/stuff was the best move for the Yankees, though. The Twins more or less needed to rebuild after the way the 2006 offseason went, but the Yankees have such a huge payroll that it seems to me that it would make more sense to take their risks on running out of money than risk waiting for prospects to break in or risk that the prospects don't turn out at all. [↩]

2008 Game 26: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Nick Masset vs. Nick Blackburn

Pint-Sized Review: Sacramento Brewing Hefeweizen

With the light beisbol schedule this week, I figured it would be a good time for a beer two-fer. Today's selection is the lovely "Grand Opening Ale" Hefeweizen from Sacramento Brewing Company.

The Sacramento Brewing Co. is a small, local producer. They operate two brewpub-restaurants in Sacramento as well as bottling a number of their products. And it just so happens that my local Costco is carrying mixed cases for the low, low price of $22.90. Can't beat that with a stick, considering that sixpacks normally retail for about $8 at my grocery store.
Continue reading Pint-Sized Review: Sacramento Brewing Hefeweizen... »

2008 Game 25: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Gavin "donotdenymyunicorn" Floyd vs. Boof Bonser

I'm not a big Gavin Floyd believer. Check out these projected ERAs:

5.30 -- PECOTA
5.87 -- ZiPS
5.56 -- CHONE
5.89 -- Bill James
5.44 -- Marcel

Pretty ugly, huh? Now let's look at Floyd's performance so far this season:

5.3 K/G, 4.6 BB/G, 34.2% GB%, 5.38 xFIP

So his xFIP to this point is in the range where the projections thought it would be. If he keeps giving up that many fly balls, he is going to have a rough, rough summer at U.S. Cellular Field.

Of course, he's got some offerings that scouts like, and he's somehow managed a 2.84 ERA so far, so we'll probably hear about how great he is, how he's finally made those adjustments he needed to make, etc., etc. He'll pumpkinize eventually, if not against one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Oh yeah, I was looking at Gavin Floyd's Baseball Reference page, and he has the most bizarre sponsor ever. I clicked around a bit, and the page seems to have been written by a web designer who got a BA in Philosophy at University of Wisconsin Green Bay. I'm not really sure what his motivations are, but I deny his unicorn and any unicorns that Gavin Floyd may claim.

Series Preview in Blog: Chicago White Sox (4/29-4/30)

Short post for a short series, the Twins play two against the White Sox to begin the week. The White Sox come into this game on a ... well ... it's hard to explain, but they're not on a winning streak, or a losing streak. We won't be able to figure that one out until June 12, when the Sox and the Orioles resume the game that was postponed in the 12th inning yesterday due to weather. The Sox had won two out of three from the O's thus far in the series, and they remain on top of the AL Central early in the season with a 14-10 record. An early AL Central lead is enough for some to try to sell this team as a contender this season (I can't have a Sox series preview without a Palehose 8 link. It wouldn't be right).

The Sox have been scoring a lot of runs, they lead the AL with 5.29 R/G, but they haven't been doing it with the benefit of a great batting average. The Twins have the advantage in that category (.261 to .243 - lowest in the AL), but the rest of the line tips pretty heavily in the Sox favor (MIN - .261/.303/.361, CHI - .243/.336/.418). Chicago has got a lot of their offense from the long ball (AL-best 32 HR), but they've also found an unconventional way to score runs, the bases-loaded hit-by-pitch, perfectly executed several times by Carlos Quentin. The HBP is probably gritty enough to count as Ozzie's much ballyhooed "small ball", but almost all other vestiges of that strategy seem to have disappeared. Quentin has been off to a fantastic start this season, solidifying his place on the roster.

Continue reading Series Preview in Blog: Chicago White Sox (4/29-4/30)... »

Pint-Sized Review: Spaten Optimator

Note: this review was begun before sundown saturday last week, so TOTALLY kosher and stuff. After all day in the sun watching the daughter play futbol, there's nothing like a kick-butt doppelbock.

Commercial description: The classic German dark beer, bottom fermented Doppel Bock. 7.2 pct ABV. I paid $1.99 (on sale, regularly about $2.49, I think) for this 16.9 oz. bottle.

Doppelbock ("double bock") is one of my favorite lager styles. According to the Source,

[Bock] is a corruption of the medieval German brewing town of Einbeck, but also means goat (buck) in German. The original Bocks were dark beers, brewed from high-coloured malts. Modern Bocks can be dark, amber or pale in colour. Bock was traditionally brewed for special occasions, often religious festivals such as Christmas, Easter or Lent.

Michael (not "Hee-Hee") Jackson wrote of bocks and such: "Extra-strong beers were originally made at this time of year by monastic breweries as "liquid bread" to see the brothers through the weeks when their diet forbade not only meat but also fish."

So I'm totally justified in drinking this for Passover.
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Sometimes Yankees Fans Are So Cute!!

I just want to pinch Joe Sheehan's cheeks he's so cute right now, what with the schoolboy naiveté he put on display today:

Parity. The last few years have seen the spread between the best and worst teams in the game narrow considerably, as natural cycles of aging and unnatural wealth-redistribution mechanisms serve to bring the extremes towards the middle. Throw in a National League in which three-quarters of the teams can see themselves as one trade-deadline deal away from playing in October, and you have 1980s-style parity. The Diamondbacks and Cubs have so far separated themselves at the top, while the Nationals and Rangers have yet to reach 10 wins. Everyone else, from #3 to #28, is separated by just 6½ games. That’s not a fluke: MLB has spent most of the 2000s working towards NFL-style competitive balance, and that’s what it has. Whether that’s best for baseball remains to be seen—the game is at its best when great teams fight out great races in the regular season—but it does provide a heaping helping of hope and faith.

Woo parity! I loves me some parity. Surely with all of this revenue redistribution, it would never make even the slightest bit of sense for the Twins to shop the best pitcher in baseball! And they should have plenty of money to lock up their most valuable performer from last year! Rainbows and ponies all around!

Aside from the fact that huge revenue disparities still exist, Joe needs to look back at history. 6.5 games separating third place from 28th place isn't remarkable--IT'S APRIL 29TH FOR CRYING OUT LOUD. Sheehan claims this is the direct result of what MLB has done during the 2000s. So I figured 1999 must have been one of those seasons with no parity. I checked out the standings as of Wednesday, April 28th, 1999, and sorted them by number of games behind the best record in the league--the Indians' 15-5.

The Yankees were 3rd overall in 1999 with a 13-6 record, and the Expos were 28th with a 6-13 record--7 games behind the Yankees. So over these 9 years of remarkable, stunning progress, we've narrowed the gap between #3 and #28 by half of a game! Woo-hoo! Victory cigars all around! (And for that matter, the gap between #3 and #27--the Twins--in 1999 was just 5 games.)

If you take a look over the last 8-9 years or so, it is clear that the average payroll of playoff teams exceeds the average payroll of teams that miss the playoffs. Sure, there's variance around the mean, but that's to be expected. The Rockies were a great story in the playoffs last year, but hardly a reason to believe that you can compete year-in and year-out on a sub-$60M payroll.

If we had true competitive balance, we wouldn't have seen nearly as many players like Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Miguel Cabrera, and Eric Bedard change hands in trades last offseason. No one really questions that the Twins, A's, Marlins, and Orioles should be rebuilding--for teams in their financial situation you have to rebuild from time-to-time. But you know who doesn't have to rebuild? The Yankees, the Red Sox, the Angels, the Mets, and the Cubs. There's no tearing down required in their roster construction projects because they have the money to spend right through mistakes.

I'm sitting here irritated that the Twins spent $5M+ on a replacement level pitcher this last offseason, while the Yankees paid Jason Giambi $21M last year (and will pay him $21M again this year) to hit .236/.356/.433 with (at best) zero defensive value. Now, .236/.356/.433 would have been a vast improvement on what the Twins put at DH last year, but they would have been insane to pay $21M for that performance. Giambi's 7-year/$120M contract in 2002 would have absolutely crippled the Twins, but the Yankees have happily made the postseason every year since signing that deal.

Though this offseason I've had a tough time doing it, ultimately I can deal with the payroll problem in baseball. It sucks that baseball's not really fair for small market teams, but life's not fair, it sets up underdog stories, etc., etc. What I absolutely detest is the notion that the playing field has been leveled, because it hasn't been leveled. Now with the growing delusion of a balanced field of teams, things may need to get worse before they get better.

Misc

So, today's an off day, and not the same way that Thursday and Sunday were off days. Some things I thought I would mention:

Matt Tolbert, Pumpkin

.455/.520/.500 -- Matt Tolbert, first 26 plate appearances
.179/.179/.250 -- Matt Tolbert, last 28 plate appearances

I know I emphasize the sample size thing a lot, but I imagine that casual fans would have a much different opinion about Tolbert if we swapped those two performances.

.300/.340/.360 -- Matt Tolbert, overall
.256/.317/.386 -- Matt Tolbert, PECOTA projection

Tolbert's getting pretty close to what PECOTA expected--which is still better than what it expects Punto to hit.

Mike Lamb, Out Machine

.217/.243/.304 -- Mike Lamb, first 24 team games, 2008
.208/.299/.286 -- Nick Punto, first 24 team games, 2007

Astounding. Simply astounding.

Through Saturday, Lamb had managed to hit .321/.323/.464 with men on and .146/.186/.195 with no one on base, so that's probably why he's not getting much heat, but outs are outs and if he keeps hitting like that overall, he's not going to keep hitting .321/.323/.464 with runners on base.

.257/.286/.322 -- Mike Lamb, PrOPS
.219/.244/.301 -- Mike Lamb, OPS

So based on his batted ball types, Lamb has been somewhat unlucky...but still really pathetic. PECOTA thought there was a good chance Lamb would fall off a cliff this year either in a big way (39% collapse rate) or a really big way (30% attrition rate), and we could be seeing that.

Holy Cow! The Life and Times of Halsey Hall

[contributed by: Rhubarb_Runner]

Holy Cow!  The Life and Times of Halsey Hall

Continue reading Holy Cow! The Life and Times of Halsey Hall... »

2008 Game 25: Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers

Livan Hernandez vs. Vincente Padilla

No proper game intro as I spent too much time last night sweeping the street in front of my house after some lowlife decided it would be a good idea to smash a glass bottle and drive off. Real funny wiseguy(gal). ubelmann will not stand for broken glass in front of his house, even if it is a rental.

Gold Glove Wines - Grant Burge Barossa Vines Shiraz 2004

I really like a good Shiraz. Ever since my first experiences with wine, I have always gravitated towards a well made Shiraz. That being said, until last week, I have never had the opportunity to try a Shiraz from Grant Burge. This doesn't make much sense as Grant Burge is one of Australia's premier wine makers.

I am almost ashamed to admit that I have passed over the Grant Burge label many times in the Shiraz section of the liquor store, consistently biting on the crazy, flashy labels many Australian wines tend to sport.

Well, I finally found my way to a Grant Burge wine when I saw a bottle of the 2004 Barossa Vines Shiraz on sale. My wife refuses to come with me shopping for wine, as I browse. By browsing, I mean I pick up and read the label of at least 40-50 wines before I pick out 6. When I purchase 6, I tend to have 2 or 3 wines I know are great, and I roll the dice on 3 or 4 wines I have never tried and often have never heard of. This process is getting more difficult in a town the size of Alexandria, but luckily as wine popularity continues to pick up steam, my local liquor store has made it bearable by expanding and rotating their selection. The Grant Burge label made it's way in and I was happy to take a chance on a different Shiraz.

You say Syrah... I say Shiraz! I might as well start with this ongoing argument. For many years, there was an ongoing battle over the origins of the Shiraz/Syrah grape. Europeans point to the Rhone valley in France as original home, yet many in Australia thought that it was brought to Europe from Australia. It is a fun history to read about, but in the end it was a 1998 DNA study done at Cal Davis that pegged France as Syrah/Shiraz's original home.
Continue reading Gold Glove Wines - Grant Burge Barossa Vines Shiraz 2004... »

2008 Game 24: Minnesota Twins vs. Sidney Ponson: Payback Time?

Scott "Light Rail" Baker vs. "Sir" Sidney Ponson

A lot of folks look back and mock the Ponson Era. And certainly Sidney's girth makes him easily mockable. I thought it was a good move to sign him to a minor league deal and a ridiculous move to put him in the Opening Day rotation ahead of Matt Garza. Ponson still would have been available when Ramon Ortiz failed, and Ponson's 5.08 xFIP with the Twins last year was just as good as what Jose Contreras, Miguel Batista, Tim Wakefield, Brian Bannister, and Jarrod Washburn did last year over a full season, so I tend to think that Sir Sid was a little unlucky in his seven starts with the Twins last year.

Still, it'll be a bit off-putting if we don't make some noise against Sidney tonight.

2008 Game 23: Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers

Nick Blackburn vs. Kevin Millwood

Today would be a good day for Mr. Blackburn to keep that GB% above 50%.

I would like to think that this would be a good time for the offense to break out, but it's tough to take advantage of the hitter-friendly conditions in Arlington if you're not hitting fly balls. And so far the Twins' 51% GB% on offense is the highest in the majors. That will basically lead to piranha-ball. Ground balls are converted into outs less often than fly balls are, but they also are much less likely to become extra-base hits. So some days the balls are going to find holes and we'll score some runs--other days we'll hit into five double plays. If Cuddyer's healthy, he should help in the fly ball department, but in the past when he's played while somewhat injured, he's pounded the ball into the ground like the rest of our lineup seems to be doing.

Texas' lineup looks due for a breakout to me. Their 4.00 R/G is well below the league average of 4.60 R/G (though also still above the Twins' 3.55 R/G), but it's still way early and their .740 team OPS is at league average. They've hit an insane .194 with runners in scoring position, but there's no way that will last the whole season, or even the next month. This is basically the same situation the Tigers were in before we faced them--they were hitting just fine, but they weren't hitting well with runners in scoring position so it wasn't yet reflected in their runs scored.

(The Twins, by the way, have the lowest OPS in the AL, and are arguably lucky to have scored as many runs as they have so far. It sure would be nice to see Mauer and Young get hot to bring that OPS up, though I'm certainly more optimistic about the former than the latter.)

After having written the above, I happened to glance at the Twins' VORP so far this season. Warming: his list is not for the faint of heart.

4.2 -- Justin Morneau
3.6 -- Matt Tolbert
2.7 -- Brendan Harris
2.1 -- Craig Monroe
0.1 -- Jason Kubel
-0.3 -- Brian Buscher
-0.3 -- Joe Mauer
-0.4 -- Carlos Gomez
-0.6 -- Denard Span
-0.7 -- Michael Cuddyer
-1.2 -- Nick Punto
-1.5 -- Mike Redmond
-2.7 -- Adam Everett
-3.4 -- Delmon Young
-6.7 -- Mike Lamb

So a couple of things:

1) How is it that Mike Lamb's awfulness hasn't been more annoying so far? I'm not sure. Check this out, though:

.188/.273/.275 -- Nick Punto, first 22 team games, 2007
.177/.212/.258 -- Mike Lamb, first 22 team games, 2008

Punto not only wins that comparison, but he wins in a freaking landslide. Now, Lamb's PrOPS suggests that the's been somewhat unlucky so far, and should be hitting .259/.291/.323--which isn't quite as good as Nick Punto's career batting line of .245/.314/.320. PECOTA had Lamb's attrition rate at 30% and collapse rate at 39%, so he was sitting on the edge of the cliff going into the season, and we may be watching him fall off the cliff. And here it seemed so easy to replace a -30 VORP at third base.

2) For all of the hand-wringing over Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young has been the least valuable 22-year-old on the roster so far. Joe Christensen recently wrote a fawning piece about how DY always starts slow. I can't find splits for Delmon last year, but here is his OPS over roughly 20-game periods since he has been in the majors:

.962 OPS -- Games 1-20, 2006
.717 OPS -- Games 11-30, 2006
.673 OPS -- Games 1-20, 2007
.697 OPS -- Games 21-40, 2007
.761 OPS -- Games 41-60, 2007
.701 OPS -- Games 61-80, 2007
.911 OPS -- Games 81-100, 2007
.648 OPS -- Games 101-120, 2007
.768 OPS -- Games 121-140, 2007
.638 OPS -- Games 141-162, 2007
.608 OPS -- Games 1-22, 2008

So of those ~20-game periods, this has been Delmon's worst OPS. That's almost a relief in that he's practically guaranteed to improve somewhat, but his .608 OPS isn't all that far from a lot of those ~.700 OPS months that he's had.

Meanwhile, Carlos Gomez is about what we could have expected--hitting roughly replacement level for CF and providing what seems like pretty good defense in CF.

The Best Pizza You Ever Grilled

Restaurant quality pizza in your backyard? Why yes. Here's how to impress the neighbors and make some of the tastiest pizza you've ever eaten.

At first blush pizza seems like an unlikely candidate for the backyard grill. The dough alone is enough to scare of some of the heartiest grillmasters. But if you're a fan of those plate-sized wood-fired pizzas with the cracker like crusts, short of building yourself a backyard oven, this is about as good as it gets.

I had my first wood-fired pizza back in 1996 when Punch Pizza opened in St. Paul, MN. It was all part of the culinary awakening I went through when I moved from Duluth to the Twin Cities in 1992. These small, individual pizzas, with their sparse toppings, but huge flavors changed the way I thought about pizza. This technique cannot fully replicate the taste, texture and deliciousness of Punch's creations, which take only an astounding 90 seconds to cook, but with the right ingredients and some practice you will be able to make some of the best pizza you've ever eaten at home.

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