Baseball’s Last Week
Posted by SBG on Tuesday, September 28th, 2004 at 8:49 am
I wish I had been publishing this blog last year. When the playoffs started, while everyone else was trying to analyze which teams would advance by looking at each team's statistics, I looked at the playoff field and something sharpened into focus. I realized that there was a tremendous potential for heartbreak -- and I made my predictions. I shared those predictions with three people, two of which I am sure can probably remember what I said.
And here's what I said: The Florida Marlins would win the World Series. I am not kidding. I used my theory of heartbreak to determine that if the Marlins won the World Series, that would break more fan's hearts than anybody, especially those of long suffering fans. Let's look back. The Giants haven't won the World Series since they moved to San Francisco in the '50s. The Cubs? Well, we know about that. The Braves? Lots of post season heartbreak for a team of otherwise unbelievable success. So naturally, the Marlins would beat the Giants, and the Braves will beat the Cubs. (oops, missed there). And the Marlins would deny the (Cubs) and win the National League.
In the AL, I thought if the Yanks beat Our Favorite Nine that would break my heart. And of course, Oakland had to go early, adding to their post season frustration. And, in a moment of weakness, I thought that the Red Sox would end their 80 year run of futility against the Yanks, only to lose in seven games to the Marlins. Well, that didn't quite happen, but I'm willing to bet that had I been in an office pool, I'd have done all right by picking the Marlins to win it all.
Which brings us to the present moment. I look at the last week of the season -- each team has a little more than one turn left through their rotation, and three teams are alive in the AL West and four teams are alive for two spots in the NL (West and Wild Card). I suppose you could sit down and analyze the pitching matchups, the remaining schedules, and so forth, but really, where's the fun in that? So, I will attempt to call the last week based on feel.
In the AL, I like the Angels. They trail the Oaklands by one game. Texas has really blown their opportunity by not playing well (or well enough). Here's why I like Anaheim. If they beat the Oaklands, then people like Joe Morgan can crow about how Billy Beane shouldn't have written that book about himself and how the "Oakland way" of doing things no longer works. Nevermind that the Anaheimers have about double the payroll. Nevermind that Oakland has had a tremendous run when it really shouldn't have been able to. Nevermind that the "Oakland way" is spreading. This year it's gonna be the Angels. The Twins are going to hold off the Angels and get the second seed.
In the NL, I like the Dodgers and the Astronauts. Well, I don't like the Dodgers and Astronauts, but I like them to win the two remaining spots. The Cubs won big last night, but I foresee a collapse. I know, that's not too daring, but there's another reason that I'm picking the Astronauts. I see this as being a very painful result for Sisyphus. The team he hates more than any is the Dodgers. They're gonna be in. And who does he hate more than anybody else? None other than the Truck Washer himself, Jeff Kent. I think ole number 25 is gonna hate watching Kent smirk in the playoffs while he's sitting home.
With these predictions, I see another trend. It's gonna be a cold fall in the Bay Area. The A's and Giants are out. The 49ers are dreadful. And the Raiders? Don't think so.
I realize that these predictions are not at all supported by any rational analysis. They could be completely wrong. I don't really care. The point is, anything can happen. What I am looking forward to is another good week of baseball down the stretch. If I'm wrong, well, I wasn't really taking a serious look at it. And if I'm right? You heard it here first.
Have a good day everybody.


I predicted the Cubs would suck this year. Close enough. I can't decide if I want to see them collapse now, or if I'd rather enjoy a collapse in the playoffs. The Marlins-Cubs series last year was the most fun I've ever had watching a non-Twins series. For any other Cubs haters out there, here's a great website. Be sure to listen to the Lee Elia meltdown. Also check out the "fans" page.
http://www.angelfire.com/il2/cubssuck/