AL Playoff Race
Posted by SBG on Tuesday, August 30th, 2005 at 9:01 pm
I stopped by Baseball Prospectus today and checked out the playoff odds report prior to Tuesday's action. Here's what I found.
| Team | Chance to Win Division | Chance for Wild Card | Total Chance |
| Boston | 64.0 | 12.9 | 76.8 |
| New York | 35.9 | 16.6 | 55.5 |
| Chicago | 84.5 | 10.7 | 95.3 |
| Cleveland | 15.2 | 43.5 | 58.7 |
| Oakland | 64.3 | 4.54 | 68.8 |
| Los Angeles | 35.7 | 6.88 | 42.5 |
There are four playoff spots, of course, in the AL. At almost the end of August, five teams are more likely than not to make the playoffs. Of course, one of these five teams, at least, will not make the post season.
I don't think anyone should be surprised that Chicago is the team most likely to make the post season. After all, they have the best record in the AL. What's interesting is that they have "only" an 84% chance to win the AL Central. Since July 16, there has been only one day (August 24) in which they have been less likely to win the division. The Cleveland Indians have been chipping away at their lead. If the White Sox play .500 ball the rest of the season, they'll finish 96-66. The Indians would have to go 22-8 the rest of the way (.733) to catch the White Sox. Impossible? Well, the Indians have 16 games remaining against sub .500 teams. They also have six games left against the White Sox. The White Sox have 16 of their 32 games left against sub .500 teams. Baseball Prospectus is projecting that the White Sox will play about .500 the rest of the season. Chicago is 12-15 since August 1. It's possible that Cleveland could catch them. I wouldn't get too worried yet, if I were a White Sox fan.
The Yankees are the fifth most likely team to make the playoffs. This despite the fact that they are in the lead in the Wild Card and play 17 more games against sub .500 teams. Six of those are against Tampa, who for some reason have given the Yankees fits. But, they also have eight games against Baltimore. To say that Baltimore has fallen on hard times is, well, an understatement. On July 15, they are 49-40. Today, they are 61-69. Yep, they've gone 12-29 over the last month and a half. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Yanks have a better chance to make it than Cleveland does right now.
Out West, Oakland and California are just one game apart in the standings, but Oakland is almost twice as likely to win the West, according to BP. LA has seven more games left against sub .500 teams, Oakland just 12. Plus, the A's play the Yanks six times. I'm not seeing Oakland having that big of an advantage. Of course, the BP simulation factors in more than just record. I'm saying without all of the stats crunching that I think LA has a lot better chance than what the numbers show. By the way, LA had an 81% chance to make it just six days ago. Stay tuned, this one isn't over yet.
The playoff race is heating up. Too bad our boys aren't in it.
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