Moss is pissed that you screwed up too. Does Moss have to wait until next Festivus to air the grievance?

You are always welcome to air your grievances.

SBG is a stand up guy. He admits mistakes when they happen.

First off, I'm glad the numbers got corrected, and that someone around is actually interested in a factual debate rather than shouting "Batista sucks!"

Secondly, I don't understand why you've made it the main point of your post to show that Batista isn't the best right-handed hitter on the team. That's pretty much beside the point, the question ought to be whether or not he's the Twins' current best option at 3B.

The GIDP numbers you use are misleading, because Cuddyer's had fewer opportunities per plate appearance to GIDP than Batista has. Their rates of grounding into a double play when in a double play opportunity, in each of their last MLB season, are 25% are 15% respectively. Factoring this in, Cuddyer will make even more outs, and these outs are more costly than outs with no one on base. Then, factoring in Batista's edge in defense, and I think you have a reasonable case that Batista is at least as good at 3B as Cuddyer. Also, Batista allows you the opportunity to move Cuddyer someplace where he doesn't hurt you as much on defense, and is quite possibly more comfortable on offense.

Finally, and most importantly, the correlations you were using to show that Batista=Rivas are misleading at best. All those stats for how much OBP and SLG "matter" are found by taking correlations of TEAM OBP and TEAM SLG. What this means is that if you had a team of Batista's, they would likely score about as many runs as a team of Rivas'. Thankfully, we don't have a team of either. Saying that those correlations will hold in exactly the same way for individuals as they do for teams is a leap of faith, and one that isn't necessarily very well justified. Each team is comprised of a variety of players, so that even a team with a very high OBP probably has some guys who are low-OBP, high-SLG types, but they still manage to score a lot of runs because the guys at the top of the order get on base a lot, and then the guys who hit for power after them can drive them in. This is fairly typical lineup construction, in fact.

If TR went and added 3 Tony Batista types, then I'd be worried about the team OBP. But as is, the team OBP is going to be higher thanks to the additions of Castillo and White, who will be batting higher in the order and will afford their teammates more RBI opportunities.

Thanks, ubelmann. It was your earlier comment that caused me to look into it.

Is there any reason to believe that the double play rates by Cuddyer and Batista in each of their last MLB seasons should be virtually constant?

People talk about how Cuddyer chokes in the clutch and grounds into too many double plays, like he's always done this; but in 2004, he had 8 GIDP's in 382 PA's and hit .356/.448/.493 with RISP. It seems quite possible, if not totally likely, that his numbers with men on base will rebound next season. And given his age, it is probable that he'll continue to improve across the board if the braintrust will just let him play, while Batista has been in steep decline the last few years and is not likely to change that trend.

Given these factors, in addition to the numbers of recent seasons, I still have not seen a compelling reason why they should move Cuddyer and replace him at 3B with an older, declining player who hasn't been an asset to any team since 2002.

Cuddyer, the scapegoat of last season, was worth 14.2 VORP at 3B in 2005; 14.7 VORP in 2004. Batista in 2004 was worth 10.3 VORP; in 2003, 5.4 VORP. If anyone is ready to give up on Cuddyer, he's entitled to his feelings; but at the same time, it should be very clear to anyone that Tony Batista is even worse.

"Is there any reason to believe that the double play rates by Cuddyer and Batista in each of their last MLB seasons should be virtually constant?"

This is a good question. I don't think it has anything to do with Cuddyer being a choker, or Batista being clutch. I think it has everything to do with Cuddyer being a groundball hitter and Batista being a flyball pitcher. It's really the same reason we expect that Silva will get more double plays than Santana.

For their careers, Cuddyer's groudball to flyball ratio is 1.36, and last year it was an atrocious 1.80, which certainly isn't anything like progress. Batista's career G/F is 0.75, and it was 0.73 in 2004.

Baseball Prospectus has the numbers for double play opportunities for batters and pitchers. For the last 5 years of each's career, their numbers (GIDP/DP opportunities) are like this:

Cuddyer
2001 - 1/4
2002 - 3/26
2003 - 8/21
2004 - 10/73
2005 - 19/76

Batista
2000 - 19/137
2001 - 2/58
2002 - 15/123
2003 - 21/124
2004 - 20/127

Not surprisingly, Cuddyer's best season with DPs (2004) was also the season he had his lowest G/F ratio 0.93, but considering how much lower that is than his career number, I'd say that's the fluke.

Overall, their 5-year DP rates are 21% for Cuddyer and 13% for Batista. So, maybe 25% is a bit high for Cuddyer, but it's not all that high, and if his G/F of 1.80 in 2005 represents the beginning of a trend as an even more groundball-hitting hitter, 25% is probably closer to what he'll do in 2006.

Cuddyer, scapegoat, VORP, etc...

To be clear, I don't think Cuddyer was "the reason" the Twins didn't win the division last year or anything like that. It was a bump in the road for Cuddyer, but mainly I think the problem is that he's not a third baseman. VORP only measures offensive contributions, and Batista is a better defensive 3B than Cuddyer is. If we're just comparing them offensively, then yes, I'd say Cuddyer is better than Batista, but I think that difference is often overstated. Adding in defense to the equation, which is harder to measure but still very important, I think Batista is basically as good as Cuddyer, maybe a shade worse, but nothing worth wringing our hands about. Move Cuddyer to the outfield, where his defense isn't so atrocious and he seems more comfortable at the plate, and we should get more out of him.

I think Batista is basically as good as Cuddyer, maybe a shade worse...

I'll accept, for the sake of argument that this is true. If so, then why sign Batista? We don't need basically as good or a shade worse. This was the worst offensive team in the league. We need upgrades. If the Twins go out and find a better 3rd baseman either through free agency or a trade, then I'll drop the whole thing. But, if this is the solution, well, it's about the same or worse. And that will be quite disappointing.

"If so, then why sign Batista?"

Because two Cuddyers is better than one. I don't think anyone is really convinced that Ford would be a great option as an everyday RF. Cuddyer, however, seemed much more comfortable at the plate while in the outfield, so this makes Cuddyer a lot more valuable if he winds up hitting a lot better and not being the defensive liability he was at third base. Plus, if someone else, like Kubel or Ford, winds up in RF, then Cuddyer becomes the super-utility player, a guy who is a lot better pinch-hitting option than Castro or Punto.

Also, if you look at the current depth chart and assume Batista is the starting 3B, Cuddyer is the primary backup 1B. And given his handedness, he complements Morneau pretty well.

Overall, the thinking is that Cuddyer is more valuable if he's not stuck at 3B, which is his worst defensive position, and I think that's fairly reasonable.

This all reads like some sort of "coping with Tony Batista" therapy... and Ubelmann seems to be a capable counselor (although I disagree with the notions that Cuddyer's more comfortable at the plate when playing RF, and that 3B is his worst defensive position).

Batista gives us more depth without much commitment, and keeping Cuddyer's position options open does the same for our outfield depth too (although I think we'd be best served giving Batista some real competition in spring training, especially if Ford/Kubel are capable of taking the RF job).

If so, then why sign Batista? We don't need basically as good or a shade worse. This was the worst offensive team in the league. We need upgrades.

The answer to that question is very simple SBG. Because we can't afford to. We are already maxed out in terms of payroll, and if Joe Randa is going to get $4 million a year I don't see how we could afford to sign a player who is going to be any kind of upgrade at third. If we were to trade, we would need the other team to pay most of the guy's salary, and I just don't think many teams are willing to do that.

And while, with all things taken into consideration, Cuddy and Batista might be about even, it is clear that Cuddyer at third base did not work for this team last year, so maybe the things that Batista brings to the table will be more conducive to helping the team win. It's worth a shot.

The answer to that question is very simple SBG. Because we can't afford to.

This is why I was advocating trading Hunter. He is a fabulous defender and a slightly above average bat in CF (if you look at the majors, and not just the AL). Trading Hunter could have brought value and freed up some money. A drastic move, to be sure. But, it was the only way that I could see for the Twins to upgrade and stay within payroll.