Four Bagger — Eight Pack
Posted by SBG on Monday, May 8th, 2006 at 10:24 pm
Welcome to the fourth edition of EIGHT PACK, SBG's regular feature that analyzes the hitters in 5% chunks of the season. The Twins have now played almost exactly 20% of the season. As you know, the last "EIGHT PACK" was pathetic. The Twins hit .215/.276/.287/.563 and scored 16 runs. The good news is that the Twins were a lot better than that. The bad news is that the Twins are pretty much where they were the first two eight packs. Let's look at the numbers for each of the four EIGHT PACKS to date (AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS/GPA/RUNS).
1st: .255/.301/.423/.724/.241/40
2nd: .279/.353/.382/.735/.254/41
3rd: .215/.276/.287/.563/.196/16
4th: .280/.322/.414/.740/.248/34
For the season, the Twins are hitting .257/.313/.377/.689/.235. Of course, that's pathetic. I mentioned earlier that it was going to be hard to maintain their scoring average and sure enough, they have now scored 131 runs or 4.09 runs per game. Last year, they hit .259/.323/.391/.714/.243 and scored 4.24 runs per game.
A new feature this time around. I am going to chart how many times the Twins score a given number of runs. In the last eight games, the Twins distributed their 34 runs in the following way.
0 Runs - 1
1 Runs - 0
2 Runs - 1
3 Runs - 0
4 Runs - 2
5 Runs - 1
6 Runs - 2
7 Runs - 1
For the Season, they've had the following run distribution
0 Runs - 4 XXXX
1 Runs - 3 XXX
2 Runs - 5 XXXXX
3 Runs - 4 XXXX
4 Runs - 3 XXX
5 Runs - 2 XX
6 Runs - 5 XXXXX
7 Runs - 3 XXX
8 Runs - 1 X
9 Runs - 0
10 Runs - 0
11 Runs - 0
12 Runs - 1 X
13 Runs - 1 X
In fully one half of the games to date, the Twins have scored three or fewer runs. That is NOT. GOOD.
Let’s look at the best and worst over the last eight games.
Here are the best.
1. He is maddeningly inconsistent. But when he gets hot, Torii Hunter can really rake. And he was raking this last eight games. At .448/.500/.759/1.259/.415 with five extra base hits in 29 at bats, Two Eye was the hitter of the EIGHT PACK.
2. You probably recognize this guy, as he's been either first or second each of last three EIGHT PACKS. He hit .435/.458/.696/1.154/.380 this time around. He's playing every day (for now) and his name is Michael Cuddyer.
3. It's a big drop off to Luis Castillo. He cooled off over the last eight games and hit a decent .300/.313/.467/.779/.257. But, that was good enough for third place.
Now, the worst.
1. He plays defense like a statue. He started hot but has a decided chill going now. He hit .192/.192/.231/.423/.144 over the last eight. He's down to .248/.309/.376/.685/.233. Pull the plug on Tony Batista, Mr. Ryan. Everybody else was right about this guy. He's not even hitting home runs, with just two so far, putting him on pace for ten on the season.
2. Look, I like Lew Ford. I have nothing against him and I'd be ecstatic if he could return to his 2004 form. But, I'm afraid that we're more likely to see the 2005 Ford. A .200/.250/.200/.450/.163 line is no good, but it's better than last time. Eeeek.
3. Congratulations, Rondell White, you got your first walk of the year. Of course, it was intentional, so I wouldn't go bragging about that just yet. With a season best line of .250/.280/.292/.572/.199, he hasn't exactly turned the corner. And he's got two fewer home runs than Batista, which is to say, NONE. No unintentional walks and no home runs in 116 plate appearances. Ish.
This team still isn't hitting. After almost 1,200 plate appearances, it's far enough into the season to say that we probably have seen what we are going to get unless there are personnel changes. The offense is no better than last year. In fact, it's worse. Yes, I suppose it could get better, but it is my opinion that the Twins off-season plan to improve the offense failed.



Most of the preseason predictions postulated that the pitching would probably be about the same, and that the hitters would be better, giving the Twins a legitimate shot. I mean, after all, the hitters couldn't do any worse than last year. Right?
Errr.
Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I don't think anyone on the team, not Castro, not Rondell, not T-Bat, can be as bad as Rondell was in April. For that alone, and the potential that getting out of the playoff race will bring along some younger guys who might hit, I still think the offense will improve some to above 2005 levels by the end of the season.
Rondell will turn it around I think. The problem is, even if he hits like he did last year for the rest of the way, his numbers are still going to stink.
See: Michael Cuddyer last year - bad April ruined his numbers for the whole year.
I just don't buy that a guy who's been a pretty decently consistent hitter all of a sudden becomes one of the worst regular hitters in baseball. He's going to have to turn it around at some point.
Right??
You'd think Rondell has to turn it around. He wasn't great or anything last year, but to go from that to his 2006-to-date would definitely qualify as falling off a cliff. Maybe that shoulder injury took away a little bat speed. Who knows.
I just don't understand how Gardy or Ryan can watch this team flail away at the plate and not think about bringing up Bartlett. I know he isn't going to come up and start hitting the ball out of the park, but he's got to do better than Castro or Batista, right?
When do the Twins give up on TBat, by the way? Gardy pinch-hit for him last night with a superior defensive player...
Rondell White will start hitting. He has a pretty modest hitting streak going right now.
I think the players to start harassing are none other than Lew Ford and our great leadoff "hitter", Shannon Stewart.
I like Lew Ford. It seems like he hasn't hit the ball in the air since the first half of 2004. It seems like 50% of his hits are infield choppers that he legs out.
Stewart is completely washed up. He can't hit for extra bases, his quality of ABs are mediocre at best, and he almost makes Chipper Jones look like a decent left fielder, although I don't think anyone could achieve that task. Dump him and his contract for a warm bucket of spit now.
Michael Cuddyer may not be great, but there is no way a guy with his still potentially untapped potential should not be in the line up at least 75% of the time if Stewart and Ford are the 2 taking away ABs from him. Cuddyer is better than them - so are a lot of players. Maybe he becomes a tradeable commodity since he likely won't be back next year.
I would like to see the starting OF by the end of May as LF - Kubel/Ford platoon, CF - Hunter, RF - Cuddyer.
Now, what to do about the 3B dilemma...
Maybe you should just start posting the best hitters per 8-pack, and we'll just assume everybody else ranks among the worst. Seriously, I was surprised that Morneau, Castro, or Stewart couldn't make the list this time, but there is some intense competition going on for those 3 "worst" spots.
Morneau: .200/.259/.360/.619
Castro: .235/.316/.353/.669
Stewart: .219/.324/.313/.637
Mauer: .250/.267/.357/.624
Yes, the competition was intense for the bottom three spots. But the three winners outdid all of these also-rans.