From Baseball Prospectus, the postseason odds report after 40 games (1/4 of the season):
Average wins by position in AL Central: 100.5 91.2 83.0 72.4 59.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 26 13 .569 97.7 65.3 63.05130 13.78705 76.83836 White Sox 26 13 .530 91.2 70.8 27.97795 20.13615 48.11410 Indians 19 21 .534 84.5 77.5 8.45185 9.78199 18.23385 Twins 17 23 .454 72.6 89.4 .50577 .73728 1.24305 Royals 10 27 .413 60.6 101.4 .01303 .01668 .02972
The Twins are basically completely out of it, with a 1.24% chance of making the playoffs.
The irony is feeling agony over this. All the evidence of the offseason pointed to a disaster of epic proportions. The crappy part is being tantalized as a fan when this rag tag bunch plays a couple weeks of good baseball followed by complete inpetness. Despite what Terry Ryan thinks, this team is stuck in the middle. Too much talent to suck like the Royals, but simply not enough talent to contend. The stadium, despite the good news, is set to only compound the problem. In fact, I can already imagine the headlines - Stadium Fails to Make Team Competitive. All this team is, save Mauer Santana and a few spare parts, is a glorified triple AAA team.
All the evidence of the offseason pointed to a disaster of epic proportions.
That's precisely why I (and a lot of others) have been so pessimistic. And it wasn't just this last off season, it was the last one, as well.
So, is the rumor that Pohlad will increase payroll if we get a new stadium? And if so, would he do that now, or wait until 2010? If he dies, will his heir cut the payroll anyway?
Anyway, CoolStandings.com has the Twins playoff chances calculated at less than one tenth of one percent. Even less faith there than at Prospectus.
Pohlad will increase payroll every year as long as the XM radio deal is good, as long as the ESPN tv deal is good, as long as the internet MLB packages keep working, and as long as his "income" keeps increasing.
It's possible that his "revenue sharing" checks will be bigger than the ones from the New Stadium, it'll all be clear in time.
I think from a PR perspective, they'll nominally increase the payroll, you know, by picking up a couple of player options, signing some veteran players to extensions, you know. What "winning" teams like the Yankees do... sigh.
Right, I shared that same pessimism. But still...
My point is as "purely" a Twins fan, leaving all the available statistics behind, you are always hoping for that clutch hit, that come from behind victory, that righting of the ship, even if the evidence points otherwise. From this perspective, the season seems brutally long. At the beginning of the season at least anything is still possible.
As a fan, to me, there's nothing more exciting than a pennant race even if in the end you don't catch the front-runner. If you had the glimmer of a post all-star break surge there might be a straw of hope to clutch on to. As it stands there is no hope now and the signs point to not even much reason to hope for next year.
On top of that, I'll now have to endure even more Mauer bashing from Barriero. Thank God it's gin and tonic season.
On top of that, I’ll now have to endure even more Mauer bashing from Barriero. Thank God it’s gin and tonic season.
Don't skimp on the gin. Drink the good stuff. You are gonna need it.
When you get hole cards like this on the deal (1.24% probability), you don't put more chips in the pot to see if the flop will help your hand, you fold immediately. To Banjo's point, game strategy is all about maximizing your chances of winning, putting yourself into a position to get that clutch hit. Good managers and good teams play their cards to give themselves that chance. That's what "smart ball" is all about. Getting at least the tying run (at home) or winning run (when away) to the plate, then into scoring position, then leveraging your best option to get that run in. But even good strategy, which we as Twins fans rarely experience these days, can be foiled by failure to execute, which we experience all too often. Sorry, ubelmann, I had to go with poker since I've used up all my stripper analogies for the week.
The Twins executives have already said that payroll will be bumped by a new ballpark only after the joint opens. And even then, it's only their goal to carry a league-average payroll. On today's scale, that would be an increase of about $9 million to match the #15 payroll in the majors, which is held by Baltimore.
It's not what you spend always, it's how you spend it. And the Twins have spent $6 million the combination of the Dictator Duo and Lohse. There's 10% right down the drain. Also, #15 would be the median and not necessarily the average payroll. Just sayin'.
Can't trade vets for prospects until the stadium passes. Torii or Stewart will have about 2 weeks after the ballpark bill is signed. If we wait for a special session, we'll have to hold on to them all.
BTW, how does Detroit win 63% of the Championships and ChiSox only 28%?
Surprising.
I don't know their formula, and it is just a snapshot thing.
Sapphire tonics for me, with the occaisional Grey Goose tonic for variety.
SBG, I realize that the #15 payroll is not necessarily the average. Just a quick & dirty reference because I'm too lazy to calculate the precise league average, but you get the idea.
I wanted to believe the Twins did enough this off-season. Honestly, I did. But the Tony Batista signing was, outside of the Colts trading for Jeff George, one of the most infuriating moves made by a team I followed. And then they don't persue Koskie so TBat can get the chance he was promised...
My hopes were further flushed once I read that Bartlett and his .500 Spring Training OBP was sent down so Castro could start.
Then I saw Shannon Stewart's new "fielding" style.
Then the pitching staff imploded...
On the bright side, Cuddyer's getting regular playing time and I really enjoy watching rookies to see what they bring to the table. I'm 10x more likely to go to a Bonser start than I was a Lohse start.