All-Time Best Seasons by Twins Hitters as Measured by VORP

I was thinking about Joe Mauer's 2006 season. At just past the 1/3 point in the season, Mauer's VORP is 22.2. Projected out to a full season, Mauer's VORP would be 64.2. I wondered how that VORP would stack up in the history of Twins baseball. First of all, let's define VORP. VORP is a statistic calculated by Baseball Prospectus that measures a player's offensive contribution. VORP is defined as follows:

Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

[snip]

A "replacement level" player is one who has .736 times as many EqR as the average for the position; that corresponds to a .351 winning percentage.

Here are the top fifty VORP seasons in Twins history. Got a guess at which season is number one? Let me tell you that I didn't get it.

First, let's look at seasons 41-50.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
50 Corey Koskie 3b 2003 562 0.292 0.393 0.452 11 5 0.305 39.5
49 Kent Hrbek 1b 1987 566 0.285 0.389 0.545 5 2 0.293 39.7
48 Gary Gaetti 3b 1986 661 0.287 0.346 0.518 14 15 0.253 39.7
47 Kent Hrbek 1b 1982 591 0.301 0.362 0.485 3 1 0.282 39.7
46 Kirby Puckett cf 1991 661 0.319 0.348 0.460 11 5 0.259 40.1
45 Leo Cardenas ss 1971 599 0.265 0.317 0.427 3 3 0.283 40.1
44 Earl Battey c 1963 585 0.285 0.364 0.476 0 0 0.295 40.1
43 Kirby Puckett rf 1995 602 0.314 0.379 0.515 3 2 0.29 40.5
42 Corey Koskie 3b 2001 649 0.276 0.362 0.488 27 6 0.266 40.6
41 Chili Davis dh 1991 634 0.277 0.385 0.507 5 6 0.274 40.8

Davis' 1991 season was the best by any Twin that World Championship year. Only three seasons since 1998 made the list -- and Koskie had two of them. Puckett's 1995 season was one of his seven seasons. No one had more seasons on the list.

Here's 31-40.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
40 Tony Oliva rf 1971 500 0.328 0.362 0.537 4 0 0.35 41.5
39 Tony Oliva rf 1965 647 0.321 0.377 0.491 19 9 0.274 41.6
38 Paul Molitor dh 1996 729 0.341 0.390 0.468 18 6 0.257 42.6
37 Bob Allison rf 1963 626 0.271 0.377 0.533 6 1 0.295 42.9
36 Torii Hunter cf 2002 604 0.289 0.334 0.524 23 8 0.304 43.0
35 Chuck Knoblauch 2b 1994 499 0.312 0.381 0.461 35 6 0.375 43.2
34 Tony Oliva rf 1970 674 0.325 0.364 0.514 5 4 0.273 43.6
33 Roy Smalley ss 1978 702 0.273 0.350 0.433 2 8 0.282 45.6
32 Rod Carew 2b 1969 504 0.332 0.381 0.467 19 8 0.403 46.1
31 Todd Walker 2b 1998 581 0.316 0.372 0.473 19 7 0.348 47.1

That 2002 season is why Torii Hunter is making $10.25 million this year. He's not on the list anywhere else. If you wonder why number 6 has been retired, well there's three of Tony Oliva's four seasons. Look at the Chukker at number 35 and Todd Walker at 31. It wasn't so long ago that the Twins actually had quality middle infielders. Speaking of middle infielders, one-time second baseman Rod Carew shows up for the first of seven times in the list, the same as Puckett.

Now, 21-30.

Num NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
30 Larry Hisle lf 1977 620 0.302 0.366 0.533 21 10 0.34 47.9
29 Harmon Killebrew lf 1964 682 0.270 0.377 0.548 0 0 0.302 47.9
28 Gary Gaetti 3b 1988 516 0.301 0.353 0.551 7 4 0.397 48.3
27 Kent Hrbek 1b 1988 586 0.312 0.386 0.520 0 3 0.361 49.9
26 Shane Mack lf 1992 692 0.315 0.387 0.467 26 14 0.313 50.3
25 Zoilo Versalles ss 1965 728 0.273 0.316 0.462 26 5 0.301 51.3
24 Roy Smalley ss 1979 729 0.271 0.346 0.441 2 3 0.308 52
23 Kent Hrbek 1b 1984 635 0.311 0.383 0.522 1 1 0.35 53
22 Rod Carew 1b 1976 687 0.331 0.390 0.463 49 22 0.335 53.1
21 Chuck Knoblauch 2b 1997 716 0.291 0.390 0.411 62 10 0.321 53.4

One time buddies Kent Hrbek and Gary Gaetti both had great 1988 seasons, and represent two of the three seasons from that great 1988 team. Killer only had six seasons on the list, but note that his worst season was 29th. Another season from Roy Smalley shows up. And there's Chuck Knoblauch again. Until he went to New York to player with model teammate Derek Jeter, Chuck was having some pretty darned good seasons here in Minnesota. I don't know what happened in New York, but whatever it was, it's too bad. Chuck was a tremendous player. How Versailles' 1965 season? He won the MVP with that 25th best season in club history. With an OBP of .316, he may have been the worst MVP, ever.

If you've been paying attention, you will have figured out that fifteen of the top twenty seasons have come from three players -- Puckett, Carew, and Killebrew. But who has the number one season? Hint: It's NOT one of those three guys. Also, you will have noticed that Mauer's projected season is in the top twenty.

Speaking of the top 20, here's 11-20.

Num NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
20 Rod Carew 1b 1978 651 0.333 0.410 0.441 27 7 0.358 53.7
19 Kirby Puckett cf 1987 668 0.332 0.367 0.534 12 7 0.345 55.1
18 Harmon Killebrew 3b 1966 677 0.281 0.391 0.538 0 2 0.338 55.3
17 Harmon Killebrew 3b 1970 665 0.271 0.411 0.546 0 3 0.354 55.8
16 Kirby Puckett cf 1992 696 0.329 0.374 0.490 17 7 0.347 56.2
15 Lyman Bostock cf 1977 660 0.336 0.388 0.508 16 7 0.379 56.8
14 Tony Oliva rf 1964 719 0.323 0.360 0.557 12 6 0.347 58.0
13 Bob Allison 1b 1964 594 0.287 0.404 0.553 10 1 0.425 58.7
12 Kirby Puckett cf 1989 684 0.339 0.379 0.465 11 4 0.367 59.0
11 Harmon Killebrew 1b 1961 656 0.288 0.405 0.606 1 2 0.386 59.6

Lyman Bostock was actually second in the AL in hitting behind only Carew's .388. The 1964 team had three entries on this list and Bobby Allison's effort was the best of the three, just ahead of Tony O's brilliant rookie campaign. Once again, Mauer's projected 2006 effort would surpass all of these seasons.

Now for the top ten.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
10 Harmon Killebrew 1b 1967 689 0.269 0.408 0.558 1 0 0.368 61.3

In the tenth best position adjusted season in Twins history, Killer's had 44 home runs and 113 RBIs. Killer was third in the league in OBP, SLG, and OPS. Even though Carl Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown, he shared the home run title with Killer. Killer was second in the league in RBI, first in walks, second in times on base, second in runs created, and second in extra base hits. Note that Mauer's VORP would be higher than Killer's in this phenomenal season. That should give you some idea of how much more productive Mauer is than the replacement level for a catcher.

Here's where Mauer's projected 2006 season fits right now. It would be the tenth best in Twins history.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
9 Kirby Puckett cf 1986 723 0.328 0.365 0.537 20 12 0.382 65.4

Of course, you've probably heard all about Kirby's four hit game in his major league debut in 1984. It's a legendary story. What you probably don't know is that Puckett was a replacement level player in 1984 (he probably wouldn't have gotten the call with this current regime, or if he did, he probably wouldn't have played). He was a decent player in 1985, but 1986 was when the world learned about Kirby Puckett. He was a leadoff hitter then, and I remember Kirby hitting the first pitch of the game out of the park on consecutive nights in the spring of that year against the Tigers. He ended up with 31 homeruns after hitting just four total in his first two seasons. Thirty-one homeruns was a career high and the only time he reached the thirty homerun milestone.

Puckett was third in average and slugging and fourth in OPS. He was second in runs, hits, and total bases. He was fourth in times on base and fifth in extra base hits. That was a special season for Kirby and for Twins fans like myself, who saw in Kirby the potential for greatness. In terms of VORP, he had only one better season in his entire career.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
8 Rod Carew 2b 1973 657 0.350 0.406 0.471 41 16 0.448 67.7

For most players, this would be a career year. Not for Rod, who makes three more appearances on this list. He won his third of seven batting titles and led the league in hits, runs created, and times on base. He was second in runs scored, OBP, and fourth in OPS. He led the league with 11 triples and was fourth in stolen bases. Even though he was a singles hitter, he was seventh in total bases.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
7 Chuck Knoblauch 2b 1995 629 0.333 0.424 0.487 46 18 0.496 72.3

Knoblauch's 1995 season was truly extraordinary. When you consider that 1995 was a strike shorted year, Knoblauch's high position is even more remarkable. Knoblauch was second in the league in batting average and fourth in on base percentage. He was fourth in stolen bases and he won the silver slugger at second base. If you project Knoblauch's numbers over an entire season, his VORP would have been an astounding 81.3. Knoblauch's 1995 season was truly one of the greatest position adjusted seasons in Twins history.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
6 Rod Carew 2b 1975 617 0.359 0.417 0.497 35 9 0.529 75.0

Ho Hum. Carew won a fourth consecutive batting title, and led the league in OBP. He was second in hits, third in OPS, third in runs created, and third in times on base despite playing only 143 games.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
5 Kirby Puckett cf 1988 691 0.356 0.375 0.545 6 7 0.461 75.1

The 1988 Twins were a tremendous team. They were overshadowed, of course, by the Oakland A's who stormed to the World Series. But make no mistake. Kirby's career year was 1988. He hit .356, which was the highest average for a right handed hitter since Joe DiMaggio. Kirby was second in the league in hitting, fourth in slugging and sixth in OPS. He lead the league with a career high 234 hits. He led the league in total bases, was second in runs created, and third in extra base hits. In my mind, it was almost more fun to watch Kirby in 1988 than the World Championship in 1987. Not quite of course, but almost.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
4 Harmon Killebrew 3b 1969 709 0.276 0.427 0.584 8 2 0.467 75.2

Harmon Killebrew won the AL MVP in 1969. He lead the league in OBP, despite a .276 AVE. Harmon Killebrew once said that he didn't care much about his batting average, and with good reason. The guy was a walking machine and he crunched the ball like nobody's business. Reaching a career high 49 home runs for a second time, Harmon was third in slugging and second in OPS. He led the league in runs created, times on base, intentional walks, walks, and RBIs. In terms of raw, non-positioned adjusted numbers, Killer's 1969 season was probably the best in club history.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
3 Rod Carew 2b 1974 690 0.364 0.425 0.446 38 16 0.47 75.4

I guess if you hit .364 and are a second baseman, you have going to have, oh, say, 75 VORP almost by default. First in the league in OBP, fourth in the league in OPS, first in hits, times on base, and runs created. He led the league in OBP, despite 13 sacrifice bunts. In today's game, a guy who got 180 singles wouldn't be considered a great or an elite hitter. But in 1974, the game was different. And Carew was truly one of the game's greatest offensive players in his day. And playing second base, well, he was something special according to VORP.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
2 Rod Carew 1b 1977 694 0.388 0.448 0.570 23 13 0.586 92.4

If the Killer's 1969 season wasn't the best offensive season ever in terms of unadjusted numbers, then this season was. Carew's 1977 season was one for the ages. Flirting with .400 for most of the season, Carew ended up with a tremendous season. Along with career highs in hits, he had career highs in doubles (38), triples (16), and home runs (14). Oh yeah, he also led the league in singles (171). He led the league in average, on-base percentage, OPS (a franchise record 1.019), OPS+, runs created, times on base, intentional walks, runs, triples, and boxes of popcorn sold. Even though Carew a singles hitter, he was second in the league in slugging. Not surprisingly, Carew was the league's MVP.

Before I started this exercise, I would have guessed that the 1969 Killebrew year or the 1977 Carew year would have been #1. It was possible that Puckett's 1988 season could have been there, but Puck's OBP was never all that great. I was stunned to find out that the following season was the best VORP season in Twins history.

NUM NAME POS YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORPr VORP
1 Chuck Knoblauch 2b 1996 701 0.341 0.448 0.517 45 14 0.622 99.3

Certainly, 1996 was Knoblauch's career year. He had 62 extra base hits, 98 walks and 197 hits. His OBP was just a shade behind Rod Carew's 1977 total for best in franchise history. His OPS was tied for fourth in club history, and he did that from the second base position. Carew's franchise record came when he played first base. He not only had the highest VORP in the league at 2b, only Alex Rodriguez's 111.8 VORP was better in the entire major leagues. In fact, the top five players in the league in VORP were, in order, Rodriguez, Knoblauch, F. Thomas, McGwire, and Bonds. Because of his dominance of the second base position, Chuck Knoblauch was one of the very best position-adjusted players in the game in the mid 1990s.

When Knoblauch was traded to the Yankees, the deal looked lopsided, as Knoblauch looked like a future Hall of Famer. Something went horribly wrong for Chuck and he became a pariah in Minnesota. I think Chuck was one of the best players in club history, as evidenced by his repeated appearance on this list. Believe it or not, in terms of VORP, Chuck Knoblauch had the best offensive season in Twins history, and it's not particularly close.

Update: With Joe Mauer's big night (4-4, 2 doubles), his VORP for the season shot up to 26.1, for a projected 74.1, which would put him seventh all-time in Twins single season VORP history.

30 comments to All-Time Best Seasons by Twins Hitters as Measured by VORP

  • Wow - excellent work! That is certainly a surprising outcome - especially since I turned off baseball from 1995-2000. Smile

  • ubelmann

    Does this make Chuck the most offensive player in Twins' history? Smile

  • ubelmann

    BTW, this was a really cool post.

  • Beau

    I've always known that was one spectacular season for Knoblauch. I didn't pay much attention from 1995-2000 either, but I played WhatifSports, and Knoblauch's 96 season costs tons of money. That season was one of the most (if not the most) expensive 2nd base seasons of all time.

    And he finished 16th in MVP voting. Heh.

  • mini_tb

    Great job, SBG, but how does Derek Jeter compare to the all-time best of the Twins? You really should have done a Top 50 Twins plus Derek Jeter list. By the way, I guessed the top 2 correctly.

    Note: I am in no way ripping on Jeter; I am ripping on the media coverage.

  • Moss

    Great post, SBG. You just need to learn the difference between "led" and "lead". Or Moss could copyright "he lead the league" for you.

    This is about last night's game, but Moss figures there's a better chance of getting a response here rather than the thread:

    What in the name of Tom Kelly is the Gardenslug doing ordering a hit-and-run with Morneau on first and White at bat???

    This is a firing-squad offense. There is no justification in Moss' opinion, and the 'tool should be called out. The chance of this play actually working in that instance were about .01%. In other words, the odds of White putting the ball into play to advance the runner were poor. On the other hand, White had a very good chance of striking out, and Morneau had a great chance to get hung out to dry. And although there was the chance of a GIDP, a groundball would have probably resulted in a DP even with Morneau going. So there was no real possibility of staying out of the DP.

    The only reason a hit-and-run should have been called is if Gardy had a hunch. Because then it's okay, even if all the logic dictates otherwise. But if he didn't have a hunch and he called for it, then there's something really wrong here.

  • Moss

    Moss got so worked up that he posted that item on Aaron's page for inclusion in the Gardentool file.

  • Moss

    Do you have any data on replacement-level managers?

  • mini_tb

    I heard Mike Tice is available.

  • SBG

    Did THE INSANITY take the third strike? I was toiling away on this post and heard the strike out call and saw Morneau's "slide." Somewhere I heard it was a called third strike.

    It was a 3-2 count, so that is a little bit of a mitigating factor for both THE INSANITY and the call for a hit and run. If that pitch was close, however, he HAD to be swinging. If he wasn't, he should be benched. Come to think of it, he should be benched, period. Stop THE INSANITY.

    Of course, you know or should know that the mere act of me publishing this page gives me all copyrights to this written material without any need to "get" a copyright. As for the F-Her nickname, I don't recall you ever putting that onto a tangible medium. So, your copyright claim is dubious. In fact, your claim of a copyright on that phrase is one of many "patented" Moss diatribes.

  • SBG

    If Mice Tice were managing this team, he'd call the pitches from the dugout. Literally. As in, calling out "Hey Santana, throw the change up here."

  • Moss

    White did indeed take strike three. Moss recalls it being a curve right over the heart and high. Very hittable. The 3-2 still doesn't mitigate it to Moss because there is still so little upside and such a low chance of executing between White and Morneau. Unless, of course, the 'tool had a hunch. The hunch trumps everything.

    Re: copyright of F-Her, Moss put it in a comment in Aug or Sep. SBG had posted the odds between the Twins and the Mariners with Hernandez pitching. Moss' comment was something like "Moss will take F-Her for $100, Alex." So it was as fixed in a tangible medium as any of SBG's half-baked crap.

  • Whiffers

    Yes, he took the called third strike. And it wasn't even borderline, it looked like a breaking ball right down the heart of the plate, belt-high.

    It isn't like that was the first breaking ball Hernandez had thrown in a situation like that. He was routinely throwing 2-0 breaking balls.

    Last night was an awesome game. The Twins pinch hit for the DH and also pinch hit for the 3B with the better-fielding backup 3B.

  • amr

    But, they only pinch-hit for the DH for the lefty-righty matchup.

  • SBG

    Re: copyright of F-Her, Moss put it in a comment in Aug or Sep. SBG had posted the odds between the Twins and the Mariners with Hernandez pitching. Moss’ comment was something like “Moss will take F-Her for $100, Alex.” So it was as fixed in a tangible medium as any of SBG’s half-baked crap.

    I do recall that, Moss. Thanks for "refreshing my recollection."

  • dlarso01

    Super article! My guess for top spot was Carew's 1977 year; close but no cigar. (btw, 1977, not 1997 in your article comments)

    btw, Knoblauch became a pariah because it commited a Twins no-no; he demanded a trade. If he'd quietly gone to management about it, they could have even done better in trade, but as it was, hands became tied when public deadlines were set.

  • SBG

    btw, Knoblauch became a pariah because it commited a Twins no-no; he demanded a trade. If he’d quietly gone to management about it, they could have even done better in trade, but as it was, hands became tied when public deadlines were set.

    This is true (and what I meant to say was that something went horribly wrong in New York), but I still have a soft spot in my heart for the Chukker. He was a great, great player and it ended so badly for him. We know his dad had ALS and he got divorced, which indicates that life was probably pretty rough for him. The hotdog incident made him look like a pathetic baby and maybe he was a pathetic baby. But, man, for about four or five seasons, he was on a Cooperstown track.

    As for typos, I appreciate having them pointed out (I fixed it). My editor is a real slacker. I'll have to fire him one of these days. Smile

  • Of course, you know or should know that the mere act of me publishing this page gives me all copyrights to this written material without any need to “get” a copyright. As for the F-Her nickname, I don’t recall you ever putting that onto a tangible medium. So, your copyright claim is dubious. In fact, your claim of a copyright on that phrase is one of many “patented” Moss diatribes.

    I'm 90% sure I coined Fliriano, the nickname you and Twins Junkie are using. I only request 1% of your net earnings. Smile

    ...but I still have a soft spot in my heart for the Chukker.

    I liked Chuck ... up until the winter after his rookie year when he signed at a baseball card show in Sioux Falls. I went, all pumped to get his autograph. I'd never had a real autograph. He was charging $7 a sign. In '91. And he was only a rookie. He popped the cherry on my illusion that baseball players were somehow in it for thalovathagame.

  • SBG

    Since you want net earnings and I have no revenue and only expenses, I'll send you my bill. Smile

  • Moss

    Do you have any data on replacement-level managers?

    To follow up, who had the better career VORP, Kelly or Gardentool?? Moss is thinking they are both negative or near-zero.

  • SBG

    No data on that. Just a hunch. Wink

  • Since you want net earnings and I have no revenue and only expenses, I’ll send you my bill.

    Shit. I knew I phrased that wrong.

  • Nice research, SBG.

    Re: Zoilo in '65. Bill James credits him with 32 Win Shares that season, which was 2nd only to Tony O's 33 in the league. Not the strongest of scores for an MVP, but not as weak as some who come to mind, like Mo Vaughn in '95 (24 WS), Juan Gonzalez in '96 (21 WS), Juan Gone in '98 (25 WS), or Ivan Rodriguez in '99 (28 WS). Considering the league's level of offense in '65 and Zoilo's defensive value at SS (he won a Gold Glove that year), he appears to have enjoyed a genuinely great year in his MVP season.

  • BigTicketFan

    Good stuff SBG. Thanks for the work on putting this together!

  • David

    Yeah, its easy to beat up on Zoilo's MVP in retrospect, but it was a different game in 1965. Most of the superstars were in the NL and many of the usual suspects in the AL (Mantle, Yaz, Killebrew) missed time due to injuries. Oliva was really the only other guy with much of an argument.

  • SBG

    Yeah, its easy to beat up on Zoilo’s MVP in retrospect, but it was a different game in 1965.

    True enough. I just checked and Zoilo had the best VORP in the AL in 1965. Of course, the NL had 15 of the top 20 VORPs that year. Just a down year for the big time guys in the AL.

  • Nate Tubbs

    Can you do a comparable ranking of the top 50 seasons in Twins history for pitchers? It'd be interesting to see that list as well. Good work.

  • SBG

    I've got the pitcher's list already put together. Article forthcoming. Smile

  • Sarah

    Great work, SBG! I can't say I'm surprised by Knoblauch. No matter what we think of him now, he was a great player for the Twins. Think of the second basemen we've had since then…

    I'm not ashamed to admit that I LOVED Chuck Knoblauch and he was actually nice to me when I met him in 1994 (before he became a jerk, I'm told). When my sister and I were taking the train from New York to Boston in 2000, we started talking with this guy who was a huge Yankees fan and when he found out I was a Twins fan he said, "Seriously, what the hell happened to Chuck Knoblauch?"

    Like you said, I also have a soft spot in my heart for that 1991 ROY.

  • [...] • Back on June 6th, I compiled a list of the top 50 VORP seasons in Twins history. At the time, Joe Mauer was projected to have the seventh best VORP season in Twins history. It turns out, not surprisingly, that that pace was unsustainable for a catcher. Mauer ended the season with “just” 66.6 VORP. That’s good enough for the ninth best season in Twins history. Of course, back on June 6th, Justin Morneau was floundering around at replacement level. Since then, he improved a little and ended up at 51.8 VORP, the 26th best season in club history, just ahead of Zoilo Versalles’ 1965 MVP campaign. Mauer’s season was tremendous, especially when you consider that he’s just 23 years old. The 25 year old Morneau wasn’t bad either, eh? [...]