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The Top 50 Pitching Seasons in Twins History By VORP

Welcome, SBG fans, to the compilation of the top 50 pitching seasons in Twins history by VORP. Following the list of top 50 seasons by hitters, it's time time to look at pitchers. So far Johan Santana has a VORP of 30.8 VORP and he's on pace for a VORP of about 80.4, which is fairly comparable to the number that Joe Mauer is on pace for. This does not include Santana's brilliant outing on Tuesday night. Mauer is the big story so far this year, but I think it's pretty clear that Johan is the best player on this team. So, where does he project to fit on the all-time list? And how about some his previous seasons? Let's find out.

Before we start though, a little bit about VORP. VORP, or value over replacement player, is a measure of how many runs a pitcher saves over a replacement level player who pitches the same number of innings. Baseball Prospectus does not explain exactly how it calculates VORP, so I can't explain everything about the calculation, I can just present the numbers. I also added FIP to the calculus. FIP, or field independent pitching is a calculation that tries to calculate the number of runs per 9 innings that can be expected to score given an average defense. FIP equals 3.20 + (13*HR + 4*BB - 3*K)/IP.

Now, let's look at the top 50 seasons, starting with 41-50.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
41 Bert Blyleven 1986 36 36 271.7 8.68 1.92 7.12 1.66 4.01 4.44 41.1 0.270 4.08
42 John Butcher 1984 34 34 225.0 9.68 2.12 3.32 0.72 3.44 3.92 41.0 0.289 4.08
43 Jim Merritt 1967 37 28 227.7 7.75 1.19 6.36 0.83 2.53 2.85 40.9 0.261 2.81
44 Brad Radke 1998 32 32 213.7 10.03 1.81 6.15 0.97 4.30 4.59 40.8 0.320 3.36
45 Eric Milton 2001 35 34 220.7 9.05 2.49 6.40 1.43 4.32 4.45 40.6 0.278 4.24
46 Dave Goltz 1979 36 35 250.7 10.13 2.48 4.74 0.79 4.16 4.45 40.3 0.315 3.86
47 Bert Blyleven 1972 39 38 287.3 7.74 2.16 7.14 0.69 2.73 2.91 40.1 0.278 2.78
48 Scott Erickson 1992 32 32 212.0 8.36 3.52 4.29 0.76 3.65 3.65 39.8 0.270 4.43
49 Tom Hall 1970 52 11 155.3 5.45 3.82 10.66 0.64 2.55 2.67 39.6 0.238 2.27
50 Bobby Castillo 1982 40 25 218.7 7.98 3.50 5.06 1.07 3.66 3.95 38.8 0.256 4.61

Brad Radke and Bert Blyleven show here one time apiece. Both Radke and Blyleven make seven appearances on this list. One thing that we should remember about VORP is that it is a counting statistic. Therefore, a pitcher who throws a lot of innings will have a better chance getting higher up on the list. And indeed, almost all the entries on the list are starting pitchers. A notable except in is at position 48, Tom Hall, who had 39 relief appearances to go along with 11 starts in 1970. Hall threw 155 1/3 innings, though. Blyleven makes it here with his 1986 season, despite allowing a record 50 home runs. Here's 31-40.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
31 Camilo Pascual 1961 35 33 252.3 7.31 3.57 7.88 0.93 3.46 4.07 47.1 0.256 3.50
32 Jim Kaat 1966 41 41 304 8.01 1.63 6.06 0.86 2.75 3.37 46.8 0.263 3.15
33 Scott Erickson 1991 32 32 204.0 8.34 3.13 4.76 0.57 3.53 3.53 46.0 0.275 3.83
34 Jack Morris 1991 35 35 246.7 8.25 3.36 5.95 0.66 3.90 3.90 45.4 0.281 3.66
35 Mike Marshall 1979 90 1 142.7 8.33 3.03 5.11 0.50 2.65 2.96 45.3 0.288 3.57
36 Jim Perry 1970 40 40 278.7 8.33 1.84 5.43 0.65 3.04 3.62 44.9 0.272 3.15
37 Geoff Zahn 1978 35 35 252.3 9.27 2.89 3.78 0.64 3.03 3.60 44.3 0.293 4.15
38 Eric Milton 1999 34 34 206.3 8.29 2.75 7.11 1.22 4.49 4.84 43.4 0.274 3.81
39 Dick Stigman 1963 33 33 241.0 7.84 3.02 7.21 1.20 3.25 3.36 41.8 0.261 3.87
40 Mike Smithson 1984 36 36 252.0 8.79 1.93 5.14 1.25 3.68 4.04 41.2 0.264 4.15

Two of the key members of the 1991 season show up here. Jack Morris makes his only appearance on the list right here just behind Scott Erickson and his 20 win season. Erickson would have been much higher, but he injured his forearm and was never really the same after that. Mike Marshall shows up here with the only true reliever season on the list. With 90 appearances, 89 of them in relief, Marshall, at 36 was really abused. He threw 142 2/3 innings that season (earlier in his career he had 106 appearances and over 208 1/3 innings with no starts). After 1979, Marshall made only 38 more appearances in two years. 21-30? But, of course!

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
21 Jack Kralick 1961 33 33 242.0 9.56 2.38 5.13 0.78 3.61 3.76 53.2 0.303 3.67
22 Bert Blyleven 1987 37 37 267.0 8.39 3.40 6.61 1.55 4.01 4.45 52.7 0.267 4.75
23 Brad Radke 1997 35 35 239.7 8.94 1.80 6.53 1.05 3.87 4.28 52.0 0.290 3.34
24 Doug Corbett 1980 73 0 136.3 6.73 2.77 5.88 0.46 1.98 2.05 51.9 0.248 3.14
25 Allan Anderson 1988 30 30 202.3 8.85 1.65 3.69 0.62 3.11 3.11 51.4 0.278 3.60
26 Brad Radke 1996 35 35 232.0 8.96 2.21 5.74 1.55 4.46 4.85 51.2 0.268 4.51
27 Johan Santana 2003 45 18 158.3 7.22 2.67 9.61 0.97 3.07 3.18 51.1 0.274 2.58
28 Bert Blyleven 1971 37 37 271.3 8.69 1.92 7.13 0.70 2.82 3.08 50.5 0.306 2.69
29 John Smiley 1992 34 34 241.0 7.66 2.43 6.09 0.63 3.47 3.47 49.7 0.266 3.16
30 Brad Radke 2001 33 33 226.0 9.36 1.04 5.46 0.96 3.94 4.18 48.3 0.299 3.23

We'll talk about him more later, but in 1987-88 Frank Viola led the Twins pitching staff. In 1987, the Twins were able to win the World Series with basically two starters and two relievers. Bert Blyleven gave up 46 more home runs, but few remember that when the Twins were celebrating their first championship. Blyleven had a pretty high FIP (look his FIP in 1986 wasn't bad even with 50 homeruns). In 1988, Viola won the Cy Young Award, but Allan Anderson won the ERA title. Of course, he asked for bad karma by sitting out his last start to secure the title.

Look, there's Johan Santana. He was only a part-time starter, but nevertheless, he had the 27th best season in Twins history. There's John Smiley, who has sometimes been criticized for his performance in his one season with the Twins. I find it hard to understand why. He was very good in 1992, in fact he was better than Jack Morris in 1991. (Except for that World Series thing, of course.) Now, for positions 11-20.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
11 Brad Radke 2004 33 33 214.7 9.35 1.01 5.91 0.96 3.48 3.77 59.6 0.296 3.07
12 Bert Blyleven 1974 37 37 281.0 7.81 2.47 7.98 0.45 2.66 3.17 58.1 0.294 2.29
13 Dave Goltz 1977 39 39 303.0 8.44 2.70 5.52 0.68 3.36 3.83 57.9 0.278 3.54
14 Jim Kaat 1962 39 35 269.0 8.13 2.51 5.79 0.77 3.14 3.55 57.3 0.273 3.50
15 Bert Blyleven 1975 35 35 275.7 7.15 2.74 7.61 0.78 3.00 3.40 57.3 0.263 3.01
16 Camilo Pascual 1962 34 33 257.7 8.24 2.06 7.20 0.87 3.32 3.49 56.9 0.282 2.97
17 Jim Perry 1969 46 36 261.7 8.39 2.27 5.26 0.62 2.82 2.99 56.6 0.276 3.35
18 Frank Viola 1984 35 35 257.7 7.86 2.55 5.20 0.98 3.21 3.53 56.2 0.250 4.02
19 Dave Goltz 1978 29 29 220.3 8.54 2.74 4.74 0.49 2.49 2.94 55.2 0.282 3.55
20 Brad Radke 2000 34 34 226.7 10.36 2.03 5.60 1.07 4.45 4.73 53.5 0.315 3.78

Dave Goltz grew up in a little town called Rothsay, MN, not all that far from SBGville. He was the premier Twins pitcher of the mid to late 1970s until he signed a contract with the Dodgers (and promptly fell off the face of the earth). Only Radke and Blyleven show up on the list more often than Dave Goltz. Now, the top ten.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
10 Camilo Pascual 1963 31 31 248.3 7.43 2.94 7.32 0.76 2.46 2.75 59.8 0.266 3.16

Pascual was second in the league in wins, first in strikeouts, first in complete games with 18. He was third in ERA and adjusted ERA. The 1963 Twins won 91 games and were just two seasons from winning the American League.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
9 Jerry Koosman 1979 37 36 263.7 9.15 2.83 5.36 0.65 3.38 3.69 64.6 0.303 3.61

The Twins traded Greg Fields and a PTBNL to the Mets for Koosman in the offseason right before the 1979 season. Koosman rewarded the Twins with a 20 win season. Koosman was fourth in the league in innings pitched, eighth in ERA, fifth in strikeouts and was sixth in the Cy Young Award voting. The PTBNL? Future Twin Jesse Orosco.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
8 Brad Radke 1999 33 33 218.7 9.84 1.81 4.98 1.15 3.75 3.99 65.7 0.299 4.01

The 1999 Twins were awful with just 63 wins, but Radke was mighty fine. Radke was fourth in the league in ERA, third in BB/9 and third in ERA+. Radke has been a very good pitcher for a long time. His 2006 season has been a trainwreck, but I think he might turn things around. Regardless, he's been an all-time great for this team as a pitcher. That might sound damning for the franchise, but it is the truth.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
7 Kevin Tapani 1991 34 34 244.0 8.30 1.48 4.98 0.85 3.10 3.10 66.9 0.266 3.43

On July 31, 1989, the Twins caused great anger in one SBG when they traded Frankie "Sweet Music" Viola to the New York Mets. However, your best buddy SBG shut his mouth when Rick Aguilera and this guy, Kevin Tapani helped the Twins to their second World Championship. Jack Morris might have been the Ace and Scott Erickson might have won 20 games, but Kevin Tapani was arguably the best pitcher on the team (and he was, given his VORP). Seventh in ERA and Cy Young balloting, third in ERA+, fourth in WHIP, and fifth in innings. That 1991 campaign was a career year, and what a good year to have it.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
6 Joe Mays 2001 34 34 233.7 7.90 2.47 4.74 0.96 3.16 3.35 71.5 0.249 4.10

It's hard to accept that this is the sixth best season in Twins history. Joe got might fat on very weak teams in the division. His FIP was pretty high and I believe he beat the Tigers 5 times. Nevertheless, he logged a large number of innings, had a nice ERA (3rd in the league), was third in innings pitched, and he was number one in the league in ERA+. So, Mays is right there at sixth best pitching season in Twins history. And the Twins decided to lock him up with a long term contract. Which was a disaster.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
5 Johan Santana 2005 33 33 231.7 6.99 1.75 9.25 0.85 2.87 2.99 73.0 0.265 2.12

Should have been two Cy Youngs in a row. Johan was brilliant last season. He was second in the league in ERA, first in WHIP, first in strikeouts, first in ERA+, first in hits allowed per nine innings, and second in innings pitched. Santana wasn't quite as good as he was in 2004, but he was still the best pitcher in all of baseball. His VORP was 24 runs above the Cy Young Award winner.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
4 Frank Viola 1988 35 35 255.3 8.32 1.90 6.80 0.70 2.82 2.82 73.1 0.288 2.79

Viola won the 1988 Cy Young Award with a 24-7 record. He was third in ERA at 2.67, and third in ERA+. The 1988 Twins were a very good team, with Kirby Puckett's career year and a Cy Young Award winner in Viola.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
3 Bert Blyleven 1973 40 40 325.0 8.20 1.86 7.14 0.44 2.52 3.02 82.0 0.296 2.28

I remember seeing Bert Blyleven soft tossing before a game in 1974. I pointed him out to Butch and said, Dad, he won 20 games last year. Butch informed me that he also lost 17 games. True enough. The 1973 Twins were mediocre -- they finished 81-81. But, Bert led the league in ERA+ and K/BB. He had a career high (and led the league) with nine shutouts. He was second in the league in BB/9 and second in strikeouts. Bert threw 325 innings, struck out a ton of people, walked, comparatively few, and allowed only 16 homeruns.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
2 Frank Viola 1987 36 36 251.7 8.23 2.36 7.05 1.04 2.90 3.25 82.2 0.276 3.40

What few people realize (and I didn't know) was that Viola's 1987 season was better than his Cy Young campaign of 1988. Viola had just 17 wins in 1987, but he was second in the league in ERA and ERA+, his KK/B was fourth in the league, and seventh in strikeouts. I should mention here that it seems that VORP favors higher offense seasons more than lower offense seasons. That makes sense, I think -- in a higher offense environment there will be more runs to save than in lower offensive environments. So, I add this caveat. I don't know if this season is the second best season in Twins history. But, 1987 was a high offense season, and Frankie was pretty darn good.

NUM NAME YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA VORP BABIP FIP
1 Johan Santana 2004 34 34 228.0 6.16 2.13 10.46 0.95 2.57 2.72 89.9 0.252 2.03

No doubt, though, this was the best season in Twins history. Santana led the league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, strikeouts, K/9, and hits/9. After the All-Star game, Santana was 13-0 with an ERA of 1.21. Brilliant.

This entry was posted by SBG on Tuesday, June 13th, 2006 at 11:44 pm and is filed under MLB, Minnesota Twins categories and tags. It is one of 3325 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.

6 LTEs in response to The Top 50 Pitching Seasons in Twins History By VORP

  • Moss
    June 14, 2006 at 7:45 am

    Jerry Koosman grew up in a little town called Appleton, MN, which is not MossVille but it is Moss' Dadsville. Moss has heard accounts from several people that Moss' father is the person who started Koos on the path to a pitching career, by inserting him into an amateur game back in Koos' teen years. Much later, Koos and Moss' dad coincidentally lived on the same small lake outside of Chaska.

    Moss' father passed away in October. Incidentally, Moss heard Mike Max and Dale Welter talk about Moss' father the other evening on 'CCO for a moment re: another baseball story. Moss knows Maxie gets some abuse, and Moss isn't even a huge fan of the show, but the Max family has been friends with the Moss family for 50+ years and Mike Max (as well as his father, mother and most of his brothers) was kind enough to come to the wake. So here's a public "thanks" (not that he'll ever see it) for taking the time to stop out.

  • Moss
    June 14, 2006 at 7:57 am

    Oh, and it's interesting to see three 1984 seasons on the list. That was the year that first gave hope to Twins fans like Moss who were too young to know anything of the Twins' glory days. And then it all came crashing down when Viola couldn't hold a 10-0 lead in Cleveland. And interestingly, neither Butcher and Smithson were factors by 1987.

    Thanks for the nice piece, SBG.

  • SBG
    June 14, 2006 at 8:22 am

    And interestingly, neither Butcher and Smithson were factors by 1987.

    Yes, and I thought that they would be. Nevertheless, 1984 was a great season for Twins fans, considering where they'd been. And fortunately for all of us, it was a harbinger of better days. The best part was that the Twins were battling for a division title, but they weren't so great that they couldn't let a replacement level player named Kirby Puckett cut his teeth in the outfield. That decision paid some dividends, for sure.

  • amr
    June 14, 2006 at 4:31 pm

    BTW, thanks for these great research articles. I know they don't get much comments, but I love them. Your site is a great balance of stats and sass; people talk sass more.

    FSN just replayed Mays's 2001 CGSO of Boston on Monday night. It was tragic, knowing what was going to happen 3-4-5 years later.

    If FSN were to become "Live Twins Games" and "Old Twins Games," it would probably ruin my life because I wouldn't leave my TV room. So, thanks Random Poker! Thanks "Best Damn"!

  • SBG
    June 14, 2006 at 5:07 pm

    Thank you for the comment, amr. I like to do projects like this once in a while instead of just talking smack. Part of the reason I do them is that I'm curious and want to know things like this. But, I'm glad that they are appreciated even though they don't generate massive levels of discussion.

  • SBG, The World’s Greatest Online Magazine » Blog Archive » Cup of Coffee — October 8, 2006
    October 8, 2006 at 8:00 am

    [...] • Of course, the real Twins MVP is Johan Santana, who had a VORP of 79.7, good for the fourth best campaign in club history, behind only his magical 2004 season, Frank Viola’s 1987 campaign, and Bert “Four Letter” Blyleven’s 1973 effort. Santana’s effort is truly remarkable, because he doesn’t get a “position” adjustment like say Jeter does for playing shortstop. Nope, Santana is compared against all his pitching peers and he had the best VORP in the American League for pitchers and trailed only Travis Hafner for VORP among all American Leaguers. He’s my MVP for the league. [...]