Top Twins Pitchers in Terms of VORP, Career
The comment has come up a couple of times whether Brad Radke is worthy of the Twins Hall of Fame for his pitching career. I have always thought he was a no-brainer for that, but I decided to find out where he stood in terms of Twins pitchers, career, in VORP. So, I downloaded the seasons of every pitcher who ever pitched for the Twins and got their career VORP numbers by summing up their career numbers.
I'm not saying that VORP is the be-all and end-all in terms of evaluating pitchers. But, it is one measure, and it's one that I've looked at more than a few times. So, of the 304 men who have toed the rubber, here are the top 10 pitchers in terms of VORP.
| Number | NAME | G | GS | IP | VORP | VORPr |
| 1 | Brad Radke | 375 | 374 | 2439 | 490.4 | 0.201 |
| 2 | Bert Blyleven | 347 | 344 | 2560 | 446.0 | 0.174 |
| 3 | Jim Kaat | 467 | 421 | 2957 | 317.2 | 0.107 |
| 4 | Johan Santana | 211 | 134 | 1040 | 313.2 | 0.301 |
| 5 | Frank Viola | 260 | 259 | 1773 | 278.3 | 0.157 |
| 6 | Jim Perry | 374 | 247 | 1869 | 246.0 | 0.132 |
| 7 | Dave Goltz | 247 | 215 | 1638 | 228.8 | 0.140 |
| 8 | Camilo Pascual | 184 | 179 | 1285 | 196.7 | 0.153 |
| 9 | Kevin Tapani | 181 | 180 | 1171 | 189.5 | 0.162 |
| 10 | Rick Aguilera | 490 | 30 | 693.9 | 164.6 | 0.237 |
"VORPr" is VORP per inning pitched.
Look at that. Brad Radke has the best career VORP of any pitcher in franchise history. And of the top ten, only Johan Santana and Rick Aguilera have a higher VORPr. I have a suspicion that as offensive numbers have gone up, VORP has skewed a little bit. Nevertheless, it should be clear that Brad Radke is an all-time great among Twins pitchers.
Second in starts, third in innings pitched and number one in VORP. Brad Radke is a sure fire Twins Hall of Fame member.
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ubelmann
Judging the relative importance of starting pitching versus relief pitching is difficult. Look at all of the different measures we have of Rick Aguilera's 1991 season, for instance:
6.6 WARP3
2.45 WXRL
21.4 VORP
So, usually I'd just say -- hey, WARP is cracked out here and doesn't agree with the other two measures, which both put Aggy at about 2 wins. But then think that WXRL adjusts for the fact that Aguilera's innings came in high leverage situations, but VORP doesn't. WARP must be adjusting for that, or there's no way a number that high would come up.
So really, looking at BP stats, we have anywhere between 2 and 6 wins for Aguilera and that's just in one season. My gut says that the VORP chart is underrating Aguilera, but that WXRL number is pretty low (at least compared to a truly dominant closer like Nathan, who's at 5.71 WXRL this season, 4.39 WXRL last season, and 7.72 WXRL in '03), so maybe Aguilera just wasn't all I vaguely remember him being.
Anyway, it makes me happy to see Radke so high up there. It'd be nice to see him rewarded with a Twins HOF spot for sticking with the team through all of those lean years. I don't necessarily expect anyone to stick around for less money, but I like it when they do.
SBG
People forget, I think, in this current era of great Twins pitching that for long stretches this franchise had very little quality pitching.
spycake
Considering that he ranks ahead of comparably tenured starters Blyleven and Kaat, that's good company. Obviously those two will hold greater overall career value, but for pitching performance in a Twins uniform, Brad is right up there at the top. Certainly he should be in the Twins HoF, since I don't think the Twins endorse any "small Hall" concepts. Of course, I'd still like to see him add a championship feather in his cap, just for good measure...
And also, I hope that Johan someday obliterates Brad and company on this list.
jlichty
VORP a cumulative total rather than an average, so I think it is even more impressive that his VORPr is so high.
While clearly Radke had to have consistency to have such good numbers, the fact that he has franchise high VORP is aided by his long career with the team, but looking at the VORPr number really puts his consitency and value in perspective.
I think the fact that Brad pitched for some really lousy teams obscures just how good he has been for a long time and what he is doing this year is simply amazing given how he started and the pain he is going through.
SBG
That's why I added the VORPr column. I have the 304 pitchers in a spreadsheet now, and I might have to do a little more with this over time. Radke's VORPr stacks up pretty nicely even over the top 50 pitchers, alot of whom threw a lot less innings for the Twins.
Any guesses on the worst pitchers by VORP in club history?
Moss
Pete Redfern?
Moss
Oops, that's not who Moss meant. Terry Felton is the guess.
SBG
That's not a bad guess. Not right, but not bad.
Moss
If Moss is permitted a second guess, it would be an active player whom they could face on this road trip.
SBG
Keep guessing.
Rhubarb_Runner
I too was thinking Terry Felton. Has to be someone who stunk it up, but hung around a while, too. Can you give us a clue which era? I'm thinking early 80's, and throwing
upout Ron Davis as a possibility. At least his VORP in games I attended would put him there.brianS
Ron Davis???
but seriously, it's got to be Joe Mays. Over 300 innings of awful to balance against one good and two average seasons.
I would have suggested LaTroy, but he had 3 (three!) lights-out seasons in the Twins' bullpen, one as a closer and two as setup man.
Moss
Yeah, but he pitched few innings in those years, while he stunk it up as a starter and chewed up lots of innings in the other years.
brianS
You are probably right, Moss. but still ...
age innings ERA+
23 171.0 116
24 160.3 95
25 233.7 143
26 95.3 82
27 130.0 73
29 156.0 78
the last three seasons covered 79 appearances and 64 starts -- the equivalent of two full seasons of awful as a regular starter.
Moss
Moss was referring to Hawkins...sorry. Are your numbers for Mays?
SBG
Nobody's gonna get it without looking. Joe Mays? Not even close. His "good" year was 71 VORP, which is one of the great seasons in Twins history.
No. Steve Carlton came here and had like a 16 ERA. And he's not the worst pitcher ever.
The worst ever pitched 68 innings for the Twins. He allowed 111 hits and 76 runs, 73 earned. He walked 33 and struck out just 35, allowing 18 homeruns. His ERA was 9.66. His name is Sean Bergman and I remember him being horrific. He was the fifth starter in 2000 until he was released.
SBG
Oh yeah, his VORP was a Rondell White-esque -22.1.
spycake
Sean Bergman!
I was going to school in NY in 2000 and the only game I caught at Yankee Stadium, my beloved Twins beat the defending world champs 6-1 behind the amazing Mr. Bergman (6.1 IP, 1 R, 6 BB!). But otherwise, yeah, he stunk.
I remember hearing that his pitching motion was messed up that year, like he was compensating for an injury or surgery or something. Immediately after being released by the Twins, he started working with someone to fix it. Never quite happened, I guess, although he did hang on in AAA and Japan through 2004.
brianS
Moss: yes, those numbers above were for Mays.
LaTroy accumulated ~519 innings of starterdom. In the 2.5 seasons as a starter, he had OPS+ values of 80, 90 and 77, respectively. He had ~296.7 innings as a reliever for the Twinkies ages 27-30, with ERA+/innings of 155/87.7, 76/51.3, 208/80.3, 248/77.3. So, in three outstanding relief years he averaged over 80 innings per.
In 2000 (age 27), his VORP was 33.7. 2002: 30.3. 2003: 32.5.
In his worst year as a starter (1999), his VORP was -5.0.