Comments on: Top Twins Pitchers in Terms of VORP, Career http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/ Your Daily Source for Half-Baked Crap Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:50:04 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: brianS http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19985 brianS Tue, 22 Aug 2006 22:51:47 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19985 Moss: yes, those numbers above were for Mays. LaTroy accumulated ~519 innings of starterdom. In the 2.5 seasons as a starter, he had OPS+ values of 80, 90 and 77, respectively. He had ~296.7 innings as a reliever for the Twinkies ages 27-30, with ERA+/innings of 155/87.7, 76/51.3, 208/80.3, 248/77.3. So, in three outstanding relief years he averaged over 80 innings per. In 2000 (age 27), his VORP was 33.7. 2002: 30.3. 2003: 32.5. In his worst year as a starter (1999), his VORP was -5.0. Moss: yes, those numbers above were for Mays.
LaTroy accumulated ~519 innings of starterdom. In the 2.5 seasons as a starter, he had OPS+ values of 80, 90 and 77, respectively. He had ~296.7 innings as a reliever for the Twinkies ages 27-30, with ERA+/innings of 155/87.7, 76/51.3, 208/80.3, 248/77.3. So, in three outstanding relief years he averaged over 80 innings per.

In 2000 (age 27), his VORP was 33.7. 2002: 30.3. 2003: 32.5.
In his worst year as a starter (1999), his VORP was -5.0.

]]> By: spycake http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19978 spycake Tue, 22 Aug 2006 22:00:51 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19978 Sean Bergman! I was going to school in NY in 2000 and the only game I caught at Yankee Stadium, my beloved Twins beat the defending world champs 6-1 behind the amazing Mr. Bergman (6.1 IP, 1 R, 6 BB!). But otherwise, yeah, he stunk. I remember hearing that his pitching motion was messed up that year, like he was compensating for an injury or surgery or something. Immediately after being released by the Twins, he started working with someone to fix it. Never quite happened, I guess, although he did hang on in AAA and Japan through 2004. Sean Bergman!

I was going to school in NY in 2000 and the only game I caught at Yankee Stadium, my beloved Twins beat the defending world champs 6-1 behind the amazing Mr. Bergman (6.1 IP, 1 R, 6 BB!). But otherwise, yeah, he stunk.

I remember hearing that his pitching motion was messed up that year, like he was compensating for an injury or surgery or something. Immediately after being released by the Twins, he started working with someone to fix it. Never quite happened, I guess, although he did hang on in AAA and Japan through 2004.

]]> By: Moss http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19977 Moss Tue, 22 Aug 2006 21:57:48 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19977 Moss was referring to Hawkins...sorry. Are your numbers for Mays? Moss was referring to Hawkins...sorry. Are your numbers for Mays?

]]> By: brianS http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19972 brianS Tue, 22 Aug 2006 21:19:07 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19972 You are probably right, Moss. but still ... age innings ERA+ 23 171.0 116 24 160.3 95 25 233.7 143 26 95.3 82 27 130.0 73 29 156.0 78 the last three seasons covered 79 appearances and 64 starts -- the equivalent of two full seasons of awful as a regular starter. You are probably right, Moss. but still ...

age innings ERA+
23 171.0 116
24 160.3 95
25 233.7 143
26 95.3 82
27 130.0 73
29 156.0 78

the last three seasons covered 79 appearances and 64 starts -- the equivalent of two full seasons of awful as a regular starter.

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19971 SBG Tue, 22 Aug 2006 21:12:54 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19971 Oh yeah, his VORP was a Rondell White-esque -22.1. Oh yeah, his VORP was a Rondell White-esque -22.1.

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19970 SBG Tue, 22 Aug 2006 21:11:24 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19970 Nobody's gonna get it without looking. Joe Mays? Not even close. His "good" year was 71 VORP, which is one of the great seasons in Twins history. No. Steve Carlton came here and had like a 16 ERA. And he's not the worst pitcher ever. The worst ever pitched 68 innings for the Twins. He allowed 111 hits and 76 runs, 73 earned. He walked 33 and struck out just 35, allowing 18 homeruns. His ERA was 9.66. His name is Sean Bergman and I remember him being horrific. He was the fifth starter in 2000 until he was released. Nobody's gonna get it without looking. Joe Mays? Not even close. His "good" year was 71 VORP, which is one of the great seasons in Twins history.

No. Steve Carlton came here and had like a 16 ERA. And he's not the worst pitcher ever.

The worst ever pitched 68 innings for the Twins. He allowed 111 hits and 76 runs, 73 earned. He walked 33 and struck out just 35, allowing 18 homeruns. His ERA was 9.66. His name is Sean Bergman and I remember him being horrific. He was the fifth starter in 2000 until he was released.

]]> By: Moss http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19967 Moss Tue, 22 Aug 2006 21:00:57 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19967 Yeah, but he pitched few innings in those years, while he stunk it up as a starter and chewed up lots of innings in the other years. Yeah, but he pitched few innings in those years, while he stunk it up as a starter and chewed up lots of innings in the other years.

]]> By: brianS http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19966 brianS Tue, 22 Aug 2006 20:43:37 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19966 Ron Davis??? but seriously, it's got to be Joe Mays. Over 300 innings of awful to balance against one good and two average seasons. I would have suggested LaTroy, but he had 3 (three!) lights-out seasons in the Twins' bullpen, one as a closer and two as setup man. Ron Davis???

but seriously, it's got to be Joe Mays. Over 300 innings of awful to balance against one good and two average seasons.

I would have suggested LaTroy, but he had 3 (three!) lights-out seasons in the Twins' bullpen, one as a closer and two as setup man.

]]> By: Rhubarb_Runner http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19956 Rhubarb_Runner Tue, 22 Aug 2006 18:34:22 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19956 I too was thinking Terry Felton. Has to be someone who stunk it up, but hung around a while, too. Can you give us a clue which era? I'm thinking early 80's, and throwing <strike>up</strike> out Ron Davis as a possibility. At least his VORP in games I attended would put him there. I too was thinking Terry Felton. Has to be someone who stunk it up, but hung around a while, too. Can you give us a clue which era? I'm thinking early 80's, and throwing up out Ron Davis as a possibility. At least his VORP in games I attended would put him there.

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19949 SBG Tue, 22 Aug 2006 16:30:27 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19949 That's not a bad guess. Not right, but not bad. That's not a bad guess. Not right, but not bad.

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19948 SBG Tue, 22 Aug 2006 16:29:34 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19948 Keep guessing. Keep guessing.

]]> By: Moss http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19946 Moss Tue, 22 Aug 2006 16:26:54 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19946 If Moss is permitted a second guess, it would be an active player whom they could face on this road trip. If Moss is permitted a second guess, it would be an active player whom they could face on this road trip.

]]> By: Moss http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19939 Moss Tue, 22 Aug 2006 16:15:13 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19939 Oops, that's not who Moss meant. Terry Felton is the guess. Oops, that's not who Moss meant. Terry Felton is the guess.

]]> By: Moss http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19938 Moss Tue, 22 Aug 2006 16:12:13 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19938 Pete Redfern? Pete Redfern?

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19936 SBG Tue, 22 Aug 2006 15:41:45 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19936 That's why I added the VORPr column. I have the 304 pitchers in a spreadsheet now, and I might have to do a little more with this over time. Radke's VORPr stacks up pretty nicely even over the top 50 pitchers, alot of whom threw a lot less innings for the Twins. Any guesses on the worst pitchers by VORP in club history? That's why I added the VORPr column. I have the 304 pitchers in a spreadsheet now, and I might have to do a little more with this over time. Radke's VORPr stacks up pretty nicely even over the top 50 pitchers, alot of whom threw a lot less innings for the Twins.

Any guesses on the worst pitchers by VORP in club history?

]]> By: jlichty http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19935 jlichty Tue, 22 Aug 2006 15:17:29 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19935 VORP a cumulative total rather than an average, so I think it is even more impressive that his VORPr is so high. While clearly Radke had to have consistency to have such good numbers, the fact that he has franchise high VORP is aided by his long career with the team, but looking at the VORPr number really puts his consitency and value in perspective. I think the fact that Brad pitched for some really lousy teams obscures just how good he has been for a long time and what he is doing this year is simply amazing given how he started and the pain he is going through. VORP a cumulative total rather than an average, so I think it is even more impressive that his VORPr is so high.

While clearly Radke had to have consistency to have such good numbers, the fact that he has franchise high VORP is aided by his long career with the team, but looking at the VORPr number really puts his consitency and value in perspective.

I think the fact that Brad pitched for some really lousy teams obscures just how good he has been for a long time and what he is doing this year is simply amazing given how he started and the pain he is going through.

]]> By: spycake http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19934 spycake Tue, 22 Aug 2006 14:58:41 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19934 Considering that he ranks ahead of comparably tenured starters Blyleven and Kaat, that's good company. Obviously those two will hold greater overall career value, but for pitching performance in a Twins uniform, Brad is right up there at the top. Certainly he should be in the Twins HoF, since I don't think the Twins endorse any "small Hall" concepts. Of course, I'd still like to see him add a championship feather in his cap, just for good measure... And also, I hope that Johan someday obliterates Brad and company on this list. Considering that he ranks ahead of comparably tenured starters Blyleven and Kaat, that's good company. Obviously those two will hold greater overall career value, but for pitching performance in a Twins uniform, Brad is right up there at the top. Certainly he should be in the Twins HoF, since I don't think the Twins endorse any "small Hall" concepts. Of course, I'd still like to see him add a championship feather in his cap, just for good measure...

And also, I hope that Johan someday obliterates Brad and company on this list.

]]> By: SBG http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19923 SBG Tue, 22 Aug 2006 13:31:49 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19923 People forget, I think, in this current era of great Twins pitching that for long stretches this franchise had very little quality pitching. People forget, I think, in this current era of great Twins pitching that for long stretches this franchise had very little quality pitching.

]]> By: ubelmann http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19911 ubelmann Tue, 22 Aug 2006 08:13:22 +0000 http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/08/21/top-twins-pitchers-in-terms-of-vorp-career/#comment-19911 Judging the relative importance of starting pitching versus relief pitching is difficult. Look at all of the different measures we have of Rick Aguilera's 1991 season, for instance: 6.6 WARP3 2.45 WXRL 21.4 VORP So, usually I'd just say -- hey, WARP is cracked out here and doesn't agree with the other two measures, which both put Aggy at about 2 wins. But then think that WXRL adjusts for the fact that Aguilera's innings came in high leverage situations, but VORP doesn't. WARP <i>must</i> be adjusting for that, or there's no way a number that high would come up. So really, looking at BP stats, we have anywhere between 2 and 6 wins for Aguilera and that's just in one season. My gut says that the VORP chart is underrating Aguilera, but that WXRL number is pretty low (at least compared to a truly dominant closer like Nathan, who's at 5.71 WXRL this season, 4.39 WXRL last season, and 7.72 WXRL in '03), so maybe Aguilera just wasn't all I vaguely remember him being. Anyway, it makes me happy to see Radke so high up there. It'd be nice to see him rewarded with a Twins HOF spot for sticking with the team through all of those lean years. I don't necessarily expect anyone to stick around for less money, but I like it when they do. Judging the relative importance of starting pitching versus relief pitching is difficult. Look at all of the different measures we have of Rick Aguilera's 1991 season, for instance:

6.6 WARP3
2.45 WXRL
21.4 VORP

So, usually I'd just say -- hey, WARP is cracked out here and doesn't agree with the other two measures, which both put Aggy at about 2 wins. But then think that WXRL adjusts for the fact that Aguilera's innings came in high leverage situations, but VORP doesn't. WARP must be adjusting for that, or there's no way a number that high would come up.

So really, looking at BP stats, we have anywhere between 2 and 6 wins for Aguilera and that's just in one season. My gut says that the VORP chart is underrating Aguilera, but that WXRL number is pretty low (at least compared to a truly dominant closer like Nathan, who's at 5.71 WXRL this season, 4.39 WXRL last season, and 7.72 WXRL in '03), so maybe Aguilera just wasn't all I vaguely remember him being.

Anyway, it makes me happy to see Radke so high up there. It'd be nice to see him rewarded with a Twins HOF spot for sticking with the team through all of those lean years. I don't necessarily expect anyone to stick around for less money, but I like it when they do.

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