Game 130: Kansas City at Minnesota
Posted by SBG on Tuesday, August 29th, 2006 at 5:00 pm
What's that you say? The Twins are playing good ball? Winning series?
All true.
Now it's time to take care of business again.
Update: A little more on the Bert Blyleven homerun record, courtesy of retrosheet, truly one of the greatest websites in all of history.
Blyleven allowed 5 homeruns and nine runs in 5 1/3 innings on September 13, 1986. Not only was that the most home runs he ever gave up in one game, it's one of only two times that he gave up a career high nine runs. Bert gave up four home runs twice, once in five innings, and once in four innings. All three of these games were losses.
Twice he pitched a complete game and allowed three home runs. Both of these games were wins. The other 17 times that he allowed three home runs in a game resulted in 1 more win, 10 losses and 6 no decisions. 11 of these 22 big home run games (3 or more) occured in 1986 or 1987.
Update (Part 2): In those 11 games in 1986-87, Bert's ERA was 8.30. In his other 62 starts, his ERA was 3.45. Just sayin'.
Tigers @ Yankees rained out, make-up game tomorrow... why is that significant you ask? (Thanks for asking). Wang, who is probably the Yanks best active starter, is pushed back to tomorrow, meaning he either misses the Twins or goes on short rest. As the games may be high-scoring affairs already, its nice to gain any potential advantage we can get.
Interesting note, to me anyway.
Since the A-S break, the Twins have outscored their opponents 229-174 (43 games, for an average margin of +1.28 runs) whereas the SheSox have been OUTSCORED 206-209 in 42 games).
for those keeping track at home, KC has scored 209 runs in the second half (outscoring the ChiSox) while giving up a breath-taking 265 (45 games).
That dugout shot was hilarious. Reyes was carrying a cup of coffee through the dugout like he ought to have a suit on or something.
With greenies or without?
Tigers @ Yankees rained out, make-up game tomorrow… why is that significant you ask? (Thanks for asking). Wang, who is probably the Yanks best active starter, is pushed back to tomorrow, meaning he either misses the Twins or goes on short rest. As the games may be high-scoring affairs already, its nice to gain any potential advantage we can get.
VERY significant. And lo, the baseball gods did smile upon the Twins of Minnesota. And it was good.
Blyleven out tonight, apparently due to the impending tropical storm/hurricane headed for South Florida...
No Bert tonight.
Maybe he was sent to Rochester to check his facts.
Does Roy Smalley still live in MN? Good looking result on that 1-2 breaking ball to DeJesus there, even though DeJesus got a piece of it.
Hooray for strikeouts!
Foreplay, then the G-Spot.
Maybe he was sent to Rochester to check his facts.
Is one of the beefs with Blyleven that he makes factual mistakes? I thought it was that he was a little too goofy.
Foreplay, then the G-Spot.
Doh!
Looking X-rated tonight.
Two batters, and the rookie bests Silva's K total in 6 IP Sunday.
Teahen has been murdering the ball in the 2nd half. Watch out.
Garza with back-to-back strikeouts and then all of the sudden Dick is proclaiming him a strikeout pitcher, after an outing where he notched one strikeout. The conclusion might be correct, but I question the method.
Today's perspective: KC's offense has a .261 EQA, where .260 is defined to be average.
They rank ahead of Oakland, Seattle, and Tampa Bay in terms of offense, and if we include teams in the AAAA circuit, they rank ahead of Milwaukee, Arizona, Houston, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Colorado, and the brutally terrible Cubs offense.
Adding sound to mlb.tv's stupid commercial breaks was an awful move. Definitely a thumbs down from me.
As I noted in another thread, KC has scored 209 runs in 45 games since the AS break; SheSox 206 runs in 42....
Yow, Garza looking good so far.
Good looking 1st inning...
Teahen has been even better than I thought... .377/.421/.633 in 169 ABs since the break. Looks like he had his "Morneau Moment" this season too where the light just came on. This is a guy who got sent down to AAA in May or June to get his head and his swing back.
Teahen has been murdering the ball in the 2nd half. Watch out.
Yes, Teahan is .337/.421/.633 since the ASB. He's the Royal most likely to go all Nick Markakis on our ass.
Ubelmann, you've said nothing so far about Mauer starting instead of Redmond tonight against the lefty!
I wonder what the numbers are on "fake bunts" and how much -- if any -- affect they have on a pitcher's ability to throw strikes.
Didn't see the play to which you refer, but Moss hates the fake bunt. It gives the pitcher an opportunity to throw a strike without any danger of giving up a hit. And all he has to do is throw it at the target.
Rivas drove Moss up the wall with that, and now Castillo has a need to do the same.
Don't let Guzman off the hook, either. The idea that fake bunts draw the infield is silly. Successful bunts for hits (and real speed, the kind that Castillo doesn't have) draw the infield in, not half-hearted, fake-looking "attempts" at bunting.
I was referring to a previous thread.
You mean a team with a manager with gems like this has a terrible offense? I'm shocked.
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage. Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."
Brilliant Dusty. I hate it when all those guys are just out there just getting in the way on the bases.
Ubelmann, you’ve said nothing so far about Mauer starting instead of Redmond tonight against the lefty!
vs. LHP, 2006:
.393/.407/.482 -- Redmond
.320/.379/.400 -- Mauer
.266/.306/.354 -- White
I'll let the people decide who they think the best C/DH combo would be today.
Doggone that Mauer shift.
Who was the doofus in recent years (Joe Morgan?) who opined that home runs were bad for offenses -- that it was better to get a series of hits to score one run than to just hit it out? The flip side of the Dusty comment.
Brilliant Dusty. I hate it when all those guys are just out there just getting in the way on the bases.
Yeah, the whole "clogging up the bases" stuff is nonsense anyway. What are there, like 5 guys in all of baseball that are actually going to slow down any runner behind them. It's pretty tough to be 90 feet faster than someone else. I guess that's just Dusty being Dusty, though.
Can White catch, cause that's the only way the top two on that list would be in the same lineup on this manager's watch.
Here's a recent Tim McCarver quote along those lines, Brian.
vs. LHP, 2006:
.393/.407/.482 — Redmond
.320/.379/.400 — Mauer
.266/.306/.354 — White
I’ll let the people decide who they think the best C/DH combo would be today.
I see what you're getting at, but I think the catcher's crouch would be really hard on Rondell's sore hammy.
Who's the color commentator this evening on FSN? He seems to be trying to hard so far.
Just don't let Sweeney hit it that hard to any other part of the park, Garza.
I would imagine McCarver's ideal number two hitter would then bunt that leadoff walk to 2nd base. That would really put the pitcher back on his heels.
Who was the doofus in recent years (Joe Morgan?) who opined that home runs were bad for offenses — that it was better to get a series of hits to score one run than to just hit it out? The flip side of the Dusty comment.
As much as it pains me to say it -- I think there is something to this theory. It's not a huge thing, but I think there may be a little truth to it.
Who’s the color commentator this evening on FSN? He seems to be trying to hard so far.
Roy Smalley. tough spot to be in... you want to be insightful, but you end up being intrusive...
It’s not a huge thing, but I think there may be a little truth to it.
I think most pitchers don't pitch as well from the stretch. (Otherwise, they'd likely pitch from the stretch all of the time.) In that sense, clearing the bases could hurt you. Saying that home runs are bad is a really round about way to make this point, though.
Cuddyer's got a howitzer.
Terrible camerawork on FSN. Couldn't see the play at all when it happened. (Also, running on Cuddyer in that situation is about as stupid as trying to steal 3rd base with two outs. Wait, it's practically the same decision.)
double plays on fly balls are hott (/secret BG commentary)
According to this site:
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html
The average # of runs scored with runner on first, one out is 0.953 so I'll take the solo lead-off HR. Maybe the pitcher will walk the second guy
Cuddyer has a decent arm, wouldn't you say?
I seem to recall earlier this year a semi-declaration that the Twins had really improved vs. lefthanded pitching.
I notice that as of today the Twins are only 25-24 vs. lefty starters. It's not just Mauer who's significantly worse, it's the switch hitters who just aren't nearly as effective from the right side of the plate.
Redman seems to really "show" the ball on his delivery.
It’s not just Mauer who’s significantly worse, it’s the switch hitters who just aren’t nearly as effective from the right side of the plate.
Yeah, we're not as susceptible to LHP as we've been in the past, but this team is still better off hitting against RHP.
Castillo's performance vs. left-handed pitching has been a huge disappointment.
The average # of runs scored with runner on first, one out is 0.95...
I'd forgotten that number was so close to 1. It kind of helps back up the whole folklore about leadoff walks coming around to score. Kind of.
I'm a moron, it is runner on first, NO outs. One out drops it to 0.573
I think most pitchers don’t pitch as well from the stretch. (Otherwise, they’d likely pitch from the stretch all of the time.) In that sense, clearing the bases could hurt you. Saying that home runs are bad is a really round about way to make this point, though.
Ok, let's take this seriously.
in 2006 for the Twins' pitchers
situation BAA/OBP/SLG
none on 273/313/431
runners 269/318/429
Not any discernible difference there.
Not any discernible difference there.
Show me that the league splits are the same, and I'll agree.
Is Torii's hat tilted at a Cleveland-esque angle, or just his head in the MLB mugshot?
Is he trying to tamper with the Cleveland GM for an off-season trade?
I'm rifding hokme, but give me the leadoff HR every day and twice on Sunday.
.744 OPS -- Twins hitting, none on
.819 OPS -- Twins hitting, runners on
It could be that Twins pitchers are better than average at pitching from the stretch. I'm pretty sure there's a definite league-wide runners on/none on split, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.
I’m rifding hokme, but give me the leadoff HR every day and twice on Sunday.
I don't think anyone's actually arguing that they'd give up the home run, but rather that there is some benefit to having runners on base. A second-order effect, if you will.
The last time the Twins faced Redman is vague for me, but I seem to recall it starting well for Mark but not ending well. Wasn't that the Weekend of A Thousand Walks?
There's always a benefit to runners on base, outside of DustyBakerWorld where they just run into each other and fall down for triple plays apparently. But some commentators act like a HR is worse than a leadoff walk, which is definitely not true.
And the Twins OPS is higher with runners on base because the Pirontas smell the blood in the water.
Hey look! Mark Redman is throwing a perfect game!
And if we're really going to use the run expectancy charts to say anything about it, we ought to mention that after a leadoff HR, a team would still be expected to score 0.555 runs with no one out and no one on. So the difference between a leadoff single and a leadoff HR is about 0.602 runs. The HR is clearly better.
Good work breaking up the perfect game, Brink.
And if we’re really going to use the run expectancy charts to say anything about it, we ought to mention that after a leadoff HR, a team would still be expected to score 0.555 runs with no one out and no one on. So the difference between a leadoff single and a leadoff HR is about 0.602 runs. The HR is clearly better.
for what it's worth, the times the HR seems, um, anti-climactic and mojo-stopping is when it comes with a runner or two on base and it's not enough to complete the late comeback. It's almost as if clearing the bases with a lead still intact almost settles things down a bit so closer can catch his breath. Just my perception, that's all.
Dick just said that the Twins' most potent offensive weapon is speed. I thought it was the bunt. Which is it, Dick?
Does Roy Smalley still live in MN? Yes, I used to see him around the City Center every once in a while.
Time to talk ballpark. I thought we were past the point where we needed Twins officials or politicians to talk about this during games.
We're doing it again, making an opposing pitcher look good. It's time to start remembering that we're playing the freakin' Kansas City Royals. Time to get some offense going.
And if we’re really going to use the run expectancy charts to say anything about it, we ought to mention that after a leadoff HR, a team would still be expected to score 0.555 runs with no one out and no one on. So the difference between a leadoff single and a leadoff HR is about 0.602 runs. The HR is clearly better.
This is the money quote and what I intended to write when I was rifding hokme.
We’re doing it again, making an opposing pitcher look good.
I know this "worked" the last time, but seriously, it's lame. The Twins have the 6th best offense in the AL. You don't get 8 runs every night.
Dick just said that the Twins’ most potent offensive weapon is speed. I thought it was the bunt. Which is it, Dick?
The Twins' two most potent offensive weapons are speed, the bunt, and these nice red uniforms. WAIT... Their THREE most potent offensive weapons are speed, the bunt, nice red uniforms, and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope...
Ha! Never hurts to throw in a Monty Python line when getting shut out to divert the angst.
You don’t get 8 runs every night.
I'm not asking for 8 runs. I'm asking for more than 1 hit.
The Twins have the 6th best offense in the AL.
Is that for the whole season or since "The Real Twins" came to be in early June?
I’m not asking for 8 runs. I’m asking for more than 1 hit.
But the point you're trying to make is that the Twins do this a lot. That's just not true. It's counter-factual.
Is that for the whole season or since “The Real Twins” came to be in early June?
That's for the whole season. The've got a .269 team EQA, tied for 6th in the AL, and 7th in MLB.
nice Python ref Brink.
Is the head first slide something that Punto has done before?
Sigh. You had me until the head-first slide, Punto.
So, what are the chances of a GIDP here?
Might wanna send the runner when it's Mauer vs. lefty and a fast guy at 1B.
And we see why Mauer didn't pinch-hit for Redmond on Sunday. They can both hit into DPs!
So, what are the chances of a GIDP here?
I don't have lefty/righty splits for DP%, but Mauer grounds into DPs about 17% of the time overall. So maybe 19%/15% vs. LHP/RHP (guessing).
I don’t think anyone’s actually arguing that they’d give up the home run, but rather that there is some benefit to having runners on base. A second-order effect, if you will.
Moss used to argue with me that he'd rather have a leadoff double than a leadoff home run. He's nuts, of course, but at least some people out there think an outcome other than a home run from the leadoff hitter is a better outcome.
But the leadoff double can lead to the sacrifice bunt, the most powerful tool in all of baseball.
Is that for the whole season or since “The Real Twins” came to be in early June?
Also, I don't have EQA splits, but since the All-Star break, the Twins have the 4th-best OPS in all of baseball. Things don't look so pretty thus far, but innings like these have been the exception, rather than the rule.
Moss used to argue with me that he’d rather have a leadoff double than a leadoff home run. He’s nuts, of course, but at least some people out there think an outcome other than a home run from the leadoff hitter is a better outcome.
The run expectancy charts say a leadoff double is worth about 0.366 runs less than a leadoff HR, so yeah, not a good trade-off.
But Moss doesn't blindly believe the chart. There are some problems with it.
For example, in your cite above, you mention that after a leadoff HR there is still something like a .5 expected run going forward. However, when they empirically totaled the stats for the chart under those same circumstances, did they double-count the none-on/none-out situation? Who knows.
Moss prefers doubles when the bases are empty, and homers with men on or two out.