Cup of Coffee
September 25th, 2006 by SBG
Maybe you need decaf in the middle of the day. I go high test all the day through.
• The Wild Card will land in the Central Division of the American League for the first time, ever. What a fantastic season this has been for the heartland, with the Tigs, Chisox, and Twins battling out for two playoff spots. The Twins have never had as good a record as the Wild Card winner in the AL since the inception of the thing back in 1995. That's about to change.
• The New York Times had a nice article about Justin Morneau's candidacy for AL MVP. The Twins have gotten squarely behind Morneau, which is probably a smart thing if they want him to win. By not touting any other candidacy, Morneau is not as likely to split the Minnesota vote. My money's still on Jeter. I just had a thought, though. Remember when Morneau raised some eyebrows by complaining that the Twins didn't support him for the All-Star game enough? Everything back then was Mauer, Mauer, Mauer, and with good reason. But Li'l Harmon has made a lot of noise in the second half with his bat.
• I noticed today that Aaron Gleeman mentioned in his comments section that he might be in favor of picking up THE INSANITY'S option. I don't think it's out of the question, either. I think a lot of what happens depends on what other moves the team makes, but he's been very good since his "rehab" stint in Rochester.
What's on your mind?
This entry was posted by SBG on Monday, September 25th, 2006 at 12:38 pm and is filed under Cup of Coffee. It is one of 2465 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.
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brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 1:38:28 pm
Given RonLF's performance since the AS-break, it is getting pretty hard not to keep him around. 317/353/549, albeit in only 149 PA, places him 2nd to Morneau on the team in post-break OPS.
Where are you going to find comparable performance for a comparable price? Phil Nevin is a clear possibility and can "play" more positions defensively. Moises Alou might be available, as will be LuGo. But both are quite a bit older than White and Nevin.
I'd also like to see Terry Ryan pursue a veteran, middle-of-the-rotation innings eater. In retrospect (well, I thought so at the time, too), not re-signing Kenny Rogers was a mistake. There aren't too many of those guys around, but I'd favor finding one. Santana plus 4 kids (even if one ends up being Liriano) is just an awful lot to ask.
Surely there are a few veteran guys out there who can give you 6+ innings a night of ~4.0-4.5 ERA performance at $5m-$8m per and who would want to play for a contender?
Moss replied on September 25, 2006 at 4:20:29 pm
You're speaking of Kyle Lohse. When he's effective, that is. But we didn't want him.
brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 4:45:38 pm
Too much hubris.
and since you mentioned Lyle:
since the A-S break, here are his stats
Inn ERA hits hr ks bb baa
65.3 4.82 73 9 51 17 .290
with cincy:
Inn FIP GB%
57.0 3.82 48.6
to anticipate ubelmann, he's pitched pretty well for Cincy overall. In particular, that GB pct would, I think, be the best of his career if carried out over a full season (he was at 44.8 pct in 2004).
but he has been pretty awful recently. 26 ER allowed, 5 HRs, 10 BBs and 20 Ks over his last 6 starts (29.67 innings).
drake33 replied on September 25, 2006 at 1:41:02 pm
This is a \'half-baked crap\' from elsewhere type story, about losing the face of the franchise:
The Eagle Tribune suggests that David Ortiz will help lure Hunter away. It\'s not too bad of a read. Torii wants to play CF:
Enjoy!
SBG fixed link.
Moss replied on September 25, 2006 at 4:21:32 pm
Did SBG fix the link, or break it?? It's not working for Moss...
ubelmann replied on September 25, 2006 at 4:23:29 pm
Let's give this another try. I think this link will work.
Moss replied on September 25, 2006 at 1:41:57 pm
Here's another great comment from AG.com, posted here for everyone's enjoyment. The topic was whether Hunter's option should be picked up, or what the alternatives are for CF:
"I like Hunter too but $12 million is mighty steep.
He may be worth it because he is 3rd in the league in intangables at .387 behind Jeter .452 and Ortiz .423. Manny is last with a rating of .096.
If you can find any centerfielders with a higher intangible rating than we should get him.
Intangibles is the stat that most correlates to winning. It goes intangibles, pitching, hitting and then defense.
They say that baseball is 90% pitching. But here is a little known fact, 75% of pitching is intangibles. Its true, look it up.
Todd"
Good stuff. +25 for Todd.
brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 1:42:20 pm
I'm hoping that this is true. particularly via an NBA-style "sign-and-trade" deal.
drake33 replied on September 25, 2006 at 1:42:23 pm
I forgot to use the "close tags" button. So, I apologize for the formatting.
freealonzo replied on September 25, 2006 at 1:45:15 pm
Nice little article about the Whine Sox as they close up U.S. Cellular for the year. Funny quotes about A.J. and his lack of comments.
Click here
brink replied on September 25, 2006 at 5:35:10 pm
That's a really well-written commentary article. Who is this Jeff Fassan? What is this new Yahoo! Sports thing? The first I'd heard of their "reporting" bureau was some sort of expose story they published in the last few weeks, but I can't remember what it was now. Now this.
I like this piece because it's low on snark; from Mike Celizic to Patrick Reusse, so often I get too much of the author's agenda and too little of reality. I know that the point of commentary is editorial -- the author is pushing a viewpoint. But give me someone who shows and doesn't tell over hacktastic pieces that try harder to work in hamhanded analogies and half-baked (sorry!) put-downs.
The author doesn't sound like he's delighting in the demise of the White Sox' playoff hopes; he's explaining them. I think national and even local reporters and columnists have a duty to keep this kind of perspective rather than the various super-biased guises they so often assume (fanboy, attack dog, eternal skeptic, etc). I think bloggers more than cover the need for biased content for teams...
brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 1:52:14 pm
Check out Will's Win Probability Added charts for the weekend. Shaggy gets the win on Saturday AND has the largest negative WPA on the squad. How's that for a hollow first career victory?
brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 2:14:31 pm
Now that SBG and Lucy are in the family way and all in the spirit of togetherness and stuff, we can mention goings on at that Other Babymaking Site, particularly the work of our creative-genius friend, Twayn:
give it up for twayn! and go read the whole thing at She Who Is Preggers But Is Not Lucy
bjhess replied on September 25, 2006 at 4:29:23 pm
This has to be up for a half-baked award. Rosenthal:
Right-hander LaTroy Hawkins pitched for the Twins from 1995 to 2003, and don't be surprised if the team attempts to bring back as a free agent. Hawkins still throws hard, he remains close with center fielder Torii Hunter and his greatest success came in Minnesota. Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson, who joined the Twins' staff in '02, knows Hawkins' mechanics as well as anyone . . .
Unless the Twins are getting Hawkins for less than any of their current pitchers, I just don't see how this happens. Is Rincon signed for '07 yet?
And what value is there to being buddies with Torii Hunter? Especially if the Huntster is gone?
ubelmann replied on September 25, 2006 at 4:51:07 pm
Heh. I don't doubt the Twins would offer LaTroy a NRI to see if Anderson could fix his problems in spring training, but more likely, he's just not nearly the pitcher he used to be. Someone will probably offer LaTroy more than an NRI, so I don't see the Twins bringing him back.
brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 5:06:52 pm
hey, his FIP with Baltimore is 3.76!
seriously, he seems to have lost a little something off his fastball. He's still pretty good at inducing grounders (~45 pct the last three seasons), but his K rate is waaaay down this year (4.17 K/9, vs career 5.95; last year he was at 6.87; he hasn't been under 6.00 since 1999, with 8.73 for Minny in 2003 his career best).
But his OPS allowed is a decent 766 this year (787 career, 752 last year) and he keeps the ball in the park (4 HRs in 58 appearances/innings). I can't see the Twins bringing him back, given all the cheap right-handed relief talent available in the system already (Crain, Neshek, etc.). But he's still useful. Someone will and should pony up $3m-$4m for him next year.
ubelmann replied on September 25, 2006 at 5:10:39 pm
Someone, sure, but not the Twins. That's why I said: "Someone will probably offer LaTroy more than an NRI, so I don’t see the Twins bringing him back."
The drop in strikeout rate ought to be very alarming, though. It is very rare for a pitcher to maintain any sort of success with that kind of K rate.
brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 5:38:16 pm
I'm with you, ubelmann. "I can't see the Twins bringing him back, given all the cheap right-handed relief talent."
I wonder if he's been hurt. He seems to be awfully young (33) for such a sharp drop, given no history of elbow troubles (??). I think he's been struggling with a groin pull of late.
ubelmann replied on September 25, 2006 at 8:17:57 pm
He spent some time off when he got traded from the Cubs to the Giants, and I think that was injury-related.
BillP replied on September 25, 2006 at 4:59:37 pm
What's on my mind:
if I didn't have good friends who were Reds fans, I'd think this was pretty funny.
Q. What's dumber than giving a 32 year-old Juan Castro a two-year, $2 million contract?
A. Giving a 34 year-old Castro the exact same contract...
brianS replied on September 25, 2006 at 5:08:19 pm
Maybe they think they can coax his inner Punto out.
brink replied on September 25, 2006 at 5:26:24 pm
Here's a crazy story: Jay Gibbons injured his own wife with a foul ball in the 9th inning of yesterday's Twins at Orioles game.
As the article points out, that's a million-to-one occurrence.
ubelmann replied on September 25, 2006 at 5:30:40 pm
Gibbons' contention seems to be that it's much less than a million-to-one, and I'd tend to agree. Maybe on one pitch, you get something like a million-to-one, but over the course of the season, there are many opportunities, and since wives sit more in foul ball territory than typical fans, there's an increased chance there, too.
Beau replied on September 25, 2006 at 7:36:57 pm
I think I read somewhere that during one of Bob Feller's no-hitters (I believe it was opening day, possibly his first game back from the war?), his mother was hit by a foul ball early and wound up going to the hospital. Feller finished the game anyway, and quite well.