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Open Bar — Monday Night

Posted by SBG on Monday, October 9th, 2006 at 10:07 pm

Beer stein.jpg

• Seen on a T-Shirt this afternoon: "There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who get binary and those who don't."

• Had some comments in moderation today. I used the word "crapshoot" in a post. Comments posted using that word and my spam checker nailed them. Sorry.

• Oakland last won the World Series in 1989. They are the most recent winners of the World Series left in the playoffs (NY Mets 1986, Detroit 1984, St. Louis 1982). We've certainly had teams in the LCS playoffs in recent years who have waited a long time (Cubs, White Sox, Boston, Angels, Giants, Astros), but I had a hunch that its been a while since the most recent winner of the World Series in the LCS hadn't won in 17 years. It turns out that the last time that the LCS had four teams with the most recent winner of the World Series hadn't won in 17 years was 1986 when the NY Mets hadn't won since 1969. Hmmm.

• Speaking of amazing LCS facts, this is the first year that neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox were in the ALCS since... last year. Heh.

• Baseball Reference has their 2006 stats posted. The 2006 Twins had an OPS+ of 101, compared to 89 last year. The HHH Dome had park factors of 98 and 98, as compared to 101, 101 in 2005 (over 100 favors hitters). In other words, the team had a significant increase in OPS+ at the same time that the park was favoring pitchers by 3% over last year. Boy that 2005 Twins offense su-hucked.

• Well, Jim Leyland has worked miracles in Detroit, or so it seems. I mean who else could have done what he's done? Well...

Jim Leyland inherited a Tigers team that was 71-91 in 2005. Only one other manager took over a team that was at least 20 games below .500 and led it to a postseason series victory: Dusty Baker with the 2003 Cubs.

Baker might just be the worst manager in the majors. That's not to say that Leyland is in Bakersville, but he's also benefitted from managing Barry Bonds (and he had that rented Marlins team).

• Just one more quote on the Jeter/A-Rod situation from John Harper of the NY Daily News:

It makes me rethink the whole MVP debate. I wrote a handful of times that I thought Jeter deserved the award this season, and I still think he did more on the field to help his team than anybody else.

But in light of the Motown Meltdown, and all that it revealed about this team, I have to question how Jeter could be the MVP in a season in which he wouldn't make the slightest effort to offer a hand when A-Rod was flailing in quicksand.

That sound you hear is the local NY media awakening to realize that the whole Jeter as fantastic leader is nothing more than propaganda. By the way, I think the MVP award should be about play on the field.

• Hello, Mr. Krivsky? Yes, this is your old friend Terry Ryan. I hear that you might want to part with a left fielder. Maybe you'd like a broken down center fielder (where else can you find that?) and a relief pitcher with a steroid suspension. I know that's not gonna git er DUNN, but maybe something could be worked out.

• BP calculates the Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins ratio. The formula is (club payroll - (28 x major league minimum) / ((winning percentage - .300) x 162). The most efficient team in MLB? Florida at just over $198K. The Twins were the second most efficient team in baseball at $1.144 million. The Yankees were second to last, not surprisingly, at $3.832 million. Wait a second, here. They weren't worst? Nope. That'd be the Cubs at $4.900 million! Not surprisingly, Dusty Baker is the former manager and Andy McFail is out as president.

• I like the Tigers in the AL and the Mets in the NL. What are your picks?

• Baby SBG's calendar tells us that we have completed the first trimester.

What'll you have?


This entry was posted by SBG on Monday, October 9th, 2006 at 10:07 pm and is filed under Open Bar. It is one of 2372 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post. Why?

21 LTEs

bjhess
bjhess replied on October 9th, 2006 at 10:23 pm

Seen on a T-Shirt this afternoon: “There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who get binary and those who don’t.”

Being a geek, I just sort of assumed everyone had seen that shirt before. Clearly I need to get out more. My current favorite nerdy (of a different sort) shirt is this one, though I'd never actually wear it.

(I also find that Threadless site interesting. Apparently they're making loads of money, and I'd never even heard of them until last month. Makes me hopeful for my own endeavors.)

As for Krivsky, we all know he likes relievers.

Congratulations - just two trimesters to go!

 
AMR
AMR replied on October 10th, 2006 at 12:12 am

Could Dunn be Vavranated? Get it so he's only striking out 30% of the time?

I like the Tigers and Cards. That's not a prediction. I can just tell that David Wright is Jeter 2.0, so I might as well be a charter member of the Wright-haters club while it's still an original position.

Whichever teams advance and barring three major injuries, my prediction is AL over NL in 5.

I was wondering, is it possible to get strength of schedule or strength of victory for the playoff clubs? I wonder if the Yankee's strengths and record were inflated by playing in the East, with teams like the DRays, Os, and BoSox in the division.

Quick solution: Average the teams' divisional records (and excluding interleague because that's harder to normalize to).

Huh. Not what I expected:
NYY .598
OAK .589
ANA .571
MIN .561
DET .538
CWS .528
TOR .527
TEX .507

 
ubelmann
ubelmann replied on October 10th, 2006 at 1:12 am

My favorite part of the marginal payroll/win was seeing the Royals worst in the AL Central, despite the fact that they had the lowest payroll in the division.

 
Nick N.
Nick N. replied on October 10th, 2006 at 2:39 am

If the Twins got Dunn, I could finally stop complaining about Cuddyer's strikeouts!

 
Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on October 10th, 2006 at 6:34 am

Seen on a T-Shirt this afternoon: “There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who get binary and those who don’t.”

Yep, a good one, but it's been around for quite a while.

First trimester is complete?! Can we expect a VORB report soon?

 
Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on October 10th, 2006 at 7:04 am

And regarding the payroll/wins ratio, will I get in trouble if I say that I admire Carl's payroll limits? Sure, he comes of as a tight-fisted skin flint, but if he has management that can do well within those limitations (he does), how can you fault that? He's certainly not to blame for escalating free agent $$$.

Moss replied on October 10th, 2006 at 9:11 am

Yeah, Moss can't fault the payroll. But what Moss does resent is the whole ballpark saga.

Moss doesn't like the deal that was approved -- not because of the tax, but because it is a crappy deal for the county. The Twins get all revenue from the ballpark (apparently forever) and yet bear little or no costs of ownership. What exactly does the county get??

Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on October 10th, 2006 at 10:35 am

Now the ballpark thing is totally different from the salary limits. But you'll be hard pressed to find an recent equitable ballpark deal with any MLB team.

Moss replied on October 10th, 2006 at 11:18 am

Umm, San Fran didn't tap into public funds. And let's just say that's been a booming success.

Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on October 10th, 2006 at 1:18 pm

Yeah, that's the one example I could think of, too.

 
 
 
 
ubelmann
ubelmann replied on October 10th, 2006 at 2:00 pm

I wouldn't say that I admire Carl's payroll limits, but I respect the limits. I don't think he's raking money in hand over fist on this team, and it seems like every time the team gets more revenue sharing or higher attendance, it goes to raising the payroll. It's still not very high, but we're in a lot better payroll situation now than in 2001. We can certainly be competitive for long periods at a time with this payroll, but there's not a very big margin for error.

 
 
brianS
brianS replied on October 10th, 2006 at 2:06 pm

Apropos of the SF case, even that one is questionable.

Joel Ventresca headed up a citizens group called "Committee to Stop the Giveaway," which opposed public financing of a baseball stadium in San Francisco. He says residents are paying indirect costs -- for city services to the park, and the loss of land that could be used for housing or industry that would generate more tax dollars than baseball.

"For PR purposes they claim it's privately financed," said Ventresca. "In reality when you look at the hard numbers, the stadium in San Francisco is heavily subsidized by the local taxpayers. And that means tax dollars are going to support this sports team and their sports palace instead of those tax dollars going for public education, public parks or other types of high-need services that exist here in San Francisco."

It's a mistake, agrees Stanford University economist Roger Noll, to think of SBC Park as purely private. Noll, who studies sports economics, says the Giants' $175 million investment is paying off for now because the park is bringing in more than enough money to cover debts. But Noll sees signs the new-park honeymoon may be coming to an end. The Giants are having an off year on the field, and for the first time some games are not being sold out. Noll says trouble looms.

"Most likely, as one gets out past 10 years, the interest costs will in fact exceed the revenue enhancement," said Noll. "The reason teams have in fact asked for public subsidies is that these stadiums aren't worth it. They actually cost more than the incremental revenues they generate over their lifetimes. And that's why they go for public subsidies. It's not really a good business investment over the long run."

Noll says that means the Giants could come calling on taxpayers again when SBC Park turns from asset to financial burden. But as for the present, Noll says there's a lesson to be learned from San Francisco for cities struggling with stadium issues.

"If the political system refuses to provide a large subsidy, as happened in San Francisco when the Giants lost four consecutive ballot measures to get a subsidy, then it may be the case that the team will find alternative sources of financing to pay for most of the stadium," he said.

Roger is a highly respected economist with a long history of working in sports economics, among other things.

brianS
brianS replied on October 10th, 2006 at 2:09 pm

ahh. I didn't quite finish the article, however. Apparently the StL Cardinals privately financed their replacement for the old Busch Stadium, but on land they already owned.

Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on October 10th, 2006 at 3:57 pm

Let's not drag the stadium here in St. Louis into the discussion. They have some post-stadium issues regarding the surrounding area which was supposed to be developed as well -- supposed to...

 
 
 
brianS
brianS replied on October 10th, 2006 at 2:18 pm

Here is a link to an interesting article comparing financing on several recent stadiums.

The city of SF donated the land for SBC/PacBell/AT&T Park, plus a $15 million "tax increment" (loan) that "must be repaid."

also has a bit of discussion of the new Yankee Stadium

 
Moss replied on October 10th, 2006 at 2:27 pm

Back to the point, though -- THIS deal is crappy for Hennepin County. Doesn't really matter what other teams' deals are. And Pohlad should get criticism for holding the team hostage (contraction threats) while dragging the thing out much longer than it needed to be.

Of course, the commissioners should get heavy criticism too. Unfortunately they are between a rock and a hard place, because the public at large wanted a deal done. But that doesn't really justify a crappy deal.

 
brianS
brianS replied on October 10th, 2006 at 2:37 pm

Well, sure, Moss. It is a crappy (financial) deal. That is often (almost always!) the case with publicly-financed capital projects other than roads and bridges. Supporters are only a minority (often a small minority) of tax payers in the constituency. But many people who don't care about baseball/football/whatever don't vote, even though they will be affected adversely by the debt retirement or tax financing schemes. Democracy in action.

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on October 10th, 2006 at 5:05 pm

The only way these deals really work out is if you buy into the argument that it's worth over-paying to keep the team basically for the enjoyment that it brings to the community. Like Captain Dreamboat's clutch-ness, I think those advantages are often overstated, but there is something there.

brianS
brianS replied on October 10th, 2006 at 7:21 pm

Yea, there is something there.

But mostly it is BS. Is Portland a lousy place to live because they don't have an NFL team or a MLB team? Or Tampa (ba-DUM-bum!)?

Sports fans are trying to get their lifestyles subsidized by others, just as "enterprise zone" businesses enjoy tax breaks paid for by the rest of us, and California farmers enjoy massively subsidized irrigation water from government-financed water projects, and .... on and on.

these are programs that create significant deadweight losses for the economy as well as forcing political losers to subsidize political winners. They aren't net value creators. They are net losers.

Moss replied on October 10th, 2006 at 7:37 pm

The thing that bothers Moss, though, is not the investment -- it's who reaps the rewards. The Twins pay only a part of the building costs, but yet they get substantially all revenue from games, parking, naming rights, concessions, etc. etc.

And it is NOT limited to Twins games -- if they open up the parking lot for Basilica Block Party or Cirque de Soleil, the Twins get the parking revenue. If the Gophs play baseball there, the Twins get the revenue. And there apparently is no stated duration for this deal -- the Twins keep taking ad infinitum, unless Moss is mistaken.

It's the gift that'll keep on giving.

 
bjhess
bjhess replied on October 10th, 2006 at 8:11 pm

Sports fans are trying to get their lifestyles subsidized by others, just as “enterprise zone” businesses enjoy tax breaks paid for by the rest of us, and California farmers enjoy massively subsidized irrigation water from government-financed water projects.

Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown.

 
 
 
 

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