Goodbye, Mr Smoking
December 5th, 2006 by SBG
I found a trackback spam plugin that I have installed. It should eliminate the trackback spam from "users" such as Mr Smoking. I have turned on the "allow pings" and have eliminated the list of words that automatically flag comments. We'll see if it works. Meanwhile, feel free to use crapshoot in a comment again. Or even tramadol or vaniqa.
This entry was posted by SBG on Tuesday, December 5th, 2006 at 4:02 am and is filed under General Site Information. It is one of 2465 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.
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Moss replied on December 5, 2006 at 7:22:45 am
Hey, I thought you might be interested! There's a great deal on tires at the FIRESTONE in EAGAN, MN. You will not want to pass it up!
http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2006/12/04/serenity-now
CarterHayes replied on December 5, 2006 at 7:56:34 am
Now at result #18 for "firestone tires eagan" on Yahoo!, but still a no-show on Google. Curse their algorithms.
SDfan replied on December 5, 2006 at 9:20:36 am
The Cards re-signed Chris Carpentar for 5 years, $65 million. For arguably one of the top three pitchers in the NL the last 3 year, that doesn't seem too bad. He's not in Santana's stratosphere, but who is?
I wonder if the Twins are even thinking about trying to extend Santana. Probably not - I hope they're at least working with Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer on extensions. As crazy as this labor market is right now, I don't see it getting any better next year. I have a feeling Cuddyer might be the odd-man out, but that's just a hunch. Money figures to get pretty tight for the Twins in the next couple of years - finishing with 3 of the top 7 in the MVP voting tends to create some interesting contract negotiations.
I love the deal the Indians signed with Sizemore - if the Twins could get someplace close to that with Mauer, I'd be quite happy.
CarterHayes replied on December 5, 2006 at 9:57:39 am
I have to think that Terry Ryan is working on something. With Liriano lost for a year and none of the young guys like Garza, Baker, or Perkins ready or able to step in as even a #3 starter for perhaps another year, retaining Santana is even more crucial if the Twins want to stay competitive going in to the new ballpark.
It may come down to how much Santana wants to stay with Minnesota. Maybe we're not hearing dollars or years, but there are quite a few other things that go into Santana's decision. The front office has to show commitment to improving the team as the level of competition within the division increases, and I wonder how likely it is that the Pohlads make the necessary monetary commitments to Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer that will demonstrate to Santana that they're negotiating in good faith and still trying to put a World Championship team together.
ubelmann replied on December 5, 2006 at 1:19:16 pm
Garza may be more ready than you think. To wit:
6.3 K/G, 3.8 BB/G, 1.00 HR/G -- Pitcher A
6.1 K/G, 3.7 BB/G, 0.73 HR/G -- Pitcher B
Now, Pitcher B indeed has an edge on Pitcher A, but it's not that big. Mainly, Pitcher B has compiled his numbers in an extreme hitter's park, and he has a higher ground ball rate than Pitcher A. Pitcher B is reportedly one of the hottest commodities on the trade market.
Pitcher A was Garza last year and Pitcher B was Jason Jennings last year. Because Garza's GB% is something of an issue (too low), he's got to improve his walk rate. He's young, though, and I think there's a reasonable chance he could do that as soon as next year. Garza really isn't that far from being a #3 spot innings eater. (And if Baker can do something, anything, to keep the ball down in the zone, he's ready right-now-this-very-minute.)
That said, there's no way TR breaks camp without at least one more veteran starter. I just don't think he'll give up anyone who might have to pitch out of the rotation next year to do it.
CarterHayes replied on December 5, 2006 at 2:00:03 pm
I hadn't realized Garza was as far along as that, but it is heartening.
SDfan replied on December 5, 2006 at 9:25:59 am
Farewell, Mr Smoking; we hardly knew ye.
SBG replied on December 5, 2006 at 10:07:01 am
He hadn't yet made citizenship status at SBG Nation, but he sure was trying. "Buy Tramadol" would have been a top three citizen for sure without my spam filter in place.
HVS replied on December 5, 2006 at 9:58:59 am
Gleeman discussed this deal at the end of his post yesterday. I tend to agree with him that it is a little risky -- being as Carpenter is 31 -- but considering some of the prices that have been flying around lately, I think it's probably a decent deal.
ubelmann replied on December 5, 2006 at 1:32:08 pm
Carpenter's FIP the last three years has been: 3.71, 2.86, and 3.47. If over the next five years he posts 3.50, 3.75, 4.00, 4.25, 4.50, or something like that, I think he'll basically be worth the money. That would be worth around $20M, $16M, $12M, $8M, $4M. (these are estimates, obviously) That gets you somewhere around $60M over five years. Now, they aren't paying out the money that way, there are sure to be fluctuations around those FIP's, and it's always possible that Carpenter gets injured or his performance falls off of a cliff. But at least the Cardinals are investing in a legitimately great pitcher. The same can't be said about whoever chooses to dance with Zito, Schmidt, et al.
kg2005 replied on December 5, 2006 at 12:27:21 pm
If Johan was a free agent on this market I can see him making 25 per.
CarterHayes replied on December 5, 2006 at 12:44:54 pm
I wonder what that would have done to the bidding for Matsuaka.
ubelmann replied on December 5, 2006 at 1:23:59 pm
And for a ridiculous number of years. For cryin' out loud, Barry Frickin' Zito is expecting to get six or seven years on his deal. FIP's the last three years? 4.57, 4.37, and 4.97. In something like a year or two, Zito's poor peripherals are going to catch up with his ERA, and he's going to be a huge bust. I like his odds of being a healthy pitcher, but he's going to be a really expensive replacement level innings eater in three or four years.
brianS replied on December 5, 2006 at 3:12:03 pm
yea. and add in the spacious sidelines in the Mausoleum (uhh, McAfee Coliseum?), which makes it pitcher-friendly. Imagine putting Zito in Arlington!
although...Barry had a bad year at home this year (OOPS of 833 at home, 685 away). he had a 28/14 Home/Away split on doubles, 18/9 split on HRs, .300 home BABIP and only .274 away BABIP (but only a 5 PA difference between home and away experience). So he was getting tatooed at home. Did they change the fences this year or something?
lessee. Danny Haren: 668 home OOPS, 780 road, .277 home BABIP, .305 road.
Joe Blanton: 774/834 home/away OOPS, .372/.355 home/away BABIP.
Loaiza: 692/853 and .286/.353.
so, unless McAfee has a really strong anti-lefty bias this year, something funky was up with Zito's performance.
the Oakland lefty with the next most innings behind Zito was reliever Brad Halsey. His splits were: 800/802 OOPS and .319/.302 BABIP on 242/189 PA. In '05, Halsey's splits were 757/869 and .298/.341 in 333/367 PA. Zito's were 670/660 and 244/254 in '05. Looks to me like Zito just had a bad year at home this year.
CarterHayes replied on December 5, 2006 at 1:17:54 pm
Since I don't have a subscription to BP, could anyone clue me in on the thrust of this article by Maury Brown on Cisco Field?
SBG replied on December 5, 2006 at 2:10:49 pm
Not using HOK, not an urban center (more of a neighborhood) park, more intimate, small (34,000 seats). The thrust of the article is that the design is different and it is a positive review. Small upper deck. Small luxury suites (some hold four people).
CarterHayes replied on December 5, 2006 at 2:34:20 pm
I really wish the Twins would have gone the non-HOK route. I've sincerely wondered if people are going to look at the retro parks in the same light as the cookie cutters of the Sixties in fifteen or twenty years, and I'd hate for the Twins to play in a park that was lumped in with that.
I haven't been in the Warehouse District since I worked downtown in 2002. Does the site for the new park even qualify as a potential neighborhood park? From what I've read I know the site is small and is going to require some creativity to fit it all in there, so I'm hopeful it will be higher on the intimate scale than, say, PETCO, which doesn't feel intimate at all.
ubelmann replied on December 5, 2006 at 1:25:54 pm
Meanwhile, feel free to use crapshoot in a comment again. Or even tramadol or vaniqa.
Buying tramadol or vaniga would surely have been a crapshoot.
ubelmann replied on December 5, 2006 at 1:44:39 pm
The thrust of AG's update today makes me relatively pleased:
White can hit when he's healthy, and his overall line from last year will bring his price down. So that move, while not a supremely great move, would be fine.
We expected TR to go get a veteran starting pitcher for the rotation, since he's just not comfortable with rookies there, so that's not a surprise. And we need depth with Liriano out, so it's tough to disagree with adding some innings at SP.
The bullpen is the deepest part of the team, and the part of the team that the Twins have shown a continual ability to re-stock on the cheap. That they are looking to deal from one of their strengths to shore up a weakness is a good sign.
Andrew replied on December 5, 2006 at 2:07:23 pm
If anybody cares, I'm live blogging the Barcelona-Werder Bremen match.
Live Blog
ubelmann replied on December 5, 2006 at 2:44:32 pm
I wish I was near a TV to watch that game. I saw the Chelsea-WB match over Thanksgiving break, and that was pretty good. I kind of liked WB's style of play.
Andrew replied on December 5, 2006 at 2:54:00 pm
I missed that one because my grandparents don't have cable. I was relegated to reading soccernet recaps. Sounded (read?) like a good game though
Rhubarb_Runner replied on December 5, 2006 at 3:30:31 pm
Lohse. Batista. Rivas. Castro.
Rhubarb_Runner replied on December 5, 2006 at 3:31:13 pm
Hot damn, it took it! Good job, SBG, the filtering is working fine.
SDfan replied on December 5, 2006 at 4:25:09 pm
Hehe - that brought a smile to my face even on a lousy day at work. My thanks.
Rhubarb_Runner replied on December 5, 2006 at 10:14:00 pm
And now if you'll excuse me, I've got to start packing...
New Britain Bo replied on December 5, 2006 at 9:56:37 pm
Green tea anyone?