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Cup of Coffee — January 16, 2007

Cup of Coffee.jpgThe Wolves keep on winning and whatever else is on your mind.

This entry was posted by SBG on Tuesday, January 16th, 2007 at 6:46 am and is filed under Cup of Coffee. It is one of 3096 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.

41 comments to Cup of Coffee — January 16, 2007

  • ubelmann
    January 16th, 2007 at 3:20 pm

    2007 PECOTA forecasts are out today. This is always a bittersweet day for me, because I dearly want to discuss the projections, but they are subscriber-only content, so I can't say a whole lot without feeling like a jerk.

    I will say this, though: rate-wise (that is, by EqERA), PECOTA thinks that the Twins have the second-best reliever in all of baseball and the best two starters in all of baseball. The only problem is that one of those two starters won't be pitching this season.

  • ubelmann
    January 16th, 2007 at 3:39 pm

    Another thing about the new PECOTA's. There's a new stat on there called "beta" (not a good name) which is:

    The relative amount of variance (”risk”) in a player’s EqA or EqERA forecast, as determined from his comparables. An average MLB player has a Beta of 1.00

    Betas higher than 1.00 can be considered more risky than average. Betas may be unreliable for players with few appropriate comparables.

    The lowest beta (least risky player) for any hitter in all of baseball is Michael Cuddyer.

    Okay, okay, you twisted my arm--one more thing: you might have heard of Justin Morneau's #1 PECOTA comp. He used to play a little first base for the Twins, and has tried convincing you for years to purchase something from a line of home temperature control products.

    • SBG
      January 16th, 2007 at 5:18 pm

      Gene Larkin?

      And I've been arguing for about two years that he's closer to the Killer than Herbie.

      • ubelmann
        January 16th, 2007 at 6:40 pm

        At least in style, I'm thinking that Morneau isn't much like Killebrew. Harmon's best batting average in a season was .288 in his monster '61 season. Morneau's already hit .321 in a full season. I don't have minor league numbers for Killer, but I'm guessing he wasn't a very high average hitter in the minors, either. Morneau, on the other hand, hit .310 in the minors and didn't walk a whole lot. The end product might wind up being fairly similar (high OBP, high SLG), but Killer loved the Three True Outcomes a little more than Morneau does.

        Also, it's important to remember that PECOTA's comparisons are mainly one-season comparisons. I'm betting that Morneau's '06 is being compared to Hrbek's '84 (we'll know when the PECOTA cards come out). Check out their DT translated stats:

        .310/.392/.570 95/67 SO/BB -- Hrbek '84
        .323/.389/.583 84/56 SO/BB -- Morneau '06

        Pretty uncanny, eh? Also, though I'm sure this doesn't go into PECOTA, Hrbek was 2nd in the MVP voting that year and Morneau was 1st in the MVP voting this year.

        The more things change...

        • CarterHayes
          January 16th, 2007 at 7:41 pm

          Killer actually did hit fairly well in the Sally League, posting a .325 average (and a .625 SLG) through 249 AB at age 20. Remember, because he was a bonus baby he had to stay on the Senator's big league roster, which essentially wasted two years of development time (ages 18 and 19 seasons) before he went down to Charlotte to destroy minor league pitching in 1956. In 1957 he was a little lighter-hitting (.279 BA, .532 SLG through 142 G/519 AB), but with his light workload in the previous three years he might have tired over the course of the season. I don't know, since I couldn't find that when I looked up his (sadly only semi-complete) minor league stats. 1958 looks like a lost year for Killebrew, but it didn't really matter because he exploded in his age 23 season with the big club.

          Killer's career minor league line was .290 BA, .508 SLG with 53 HR and 228 RBI over 1188 AB. Lump that in with his major league line (.256/.376/.509), and it really makes one wish all his OBP-relevant data existed.

          • ubelmann
            January 16th, 2007 at 7:49 pm

            Huh, I didn't even think to check baseball cube--I didn't know they had retired players' data at all.

            When Morneau was a 20-year old in A-ball, he was hitting .356. Killebrew was obviously crushing that Sally League pitching, but Morneau still looks like at hitting for average even at that level.

            • CarterHayes
              January 16th, 2007 at 8:17 pm

              No doubt Killebrew didn't possess the hitting for average skill to the extent that Morneau does. Ironically, Morneau didn't hit as well as Hrbek did in 1981 at any stop in the minors.

              Apart from their different paths to ultimate success with the Twins (Hrbek hit so well at A-ball in Visalia that he never looked back, while Morneau struggled to adjust for what was, at the time, a painfully long interval), I wonder how similar the two premium latter-day Twins first-sackers will be by the end of Morneau's career. Hrbek came up at 6'4", 200lbs in 1982, while Morneau is listed as 6'4", 205lbs. Both have a had injury problems (Hrbek's knee in 1979, Morneau with his various ailments in 2005). Both have sweet lefty strokes that generate excellent power and translate to decent averages.

              Will Morneau start putting on the pounds the way Hrbek did - up to 229 by 1985 (age 25), 244 by 1989 (age 29) ? Will his reputation as a defender ever approach T-Rex's unheralded prowess around the bag? Where will Morneau end up on the Twins' all-time lists?

              It's gonna be fun to watch.

              • ubelmann
                January 16th, 2007 at 9:16 pm

                ...Morneau didn’t hit as well as Hrbek did in 1981 at any stop in the minors.

                Wow. Hrbek utterly crushed minor league ball that year.

                I agree, it'll be interesting to see how Morneau's career path compares to Hrbek's path. (Also, I didn't realize they were that similar physically--that's also something that PECOTA takes into account when it runs its comparisons.)

              • CarterHayes
                January 16th, 2007 at 10:12 pm

                Also, I didn’t realize they were that similar physically–that’s also something that PECOTA takes into account when it runs its comparisons.

                I didn't know that either, but that only can lend more weight to what you discussed above.

        • brianS
          January 16th, 2007 at 7:44 pm

          For what it is worth, Killebrew was inducted into the Sally League HOF in 1994. But that could have been mostly for post-Minors performance.

          I couldn't find any minor league data either, but I did find this hilarious bit of Keystone Cops-like management history:

          In 1962 Killebrew reported to spring training expecting to be used at each end of the infield, but Sam Mele, in his first full season as Minnesota's manager, surprised his star by shifting him to left field in hopes that the stability would allow the slugger to concentrate on hitting. "Killer" had a typical season (48 homers) and all seemed well. In 1963 and 1964 Killebrew remained in the outfield, and with Rich Rollins established at the hot corner and Bobby Allison now at first base, it seemed Killebrew would remain in the outer regions of the defense.

          But the Twins wanted to get some at-bats for a young left-handed slugger named Don Mincher. Mincher was even more defensively-challenged than Killebrew apparently, so Mincher was given the first base job, and with 1964 AL batting champion Tony Oliva in right field, Allison was moved to left. That meant Killebrew was without a position, again. So, in one of the most amazing personnel decisions in baseball history, the Twins decided to platoon Killebrew, who had hit 49 homers in 1964, with Mincher at first, and also give Killebrew a few starts at third base. Killebrew got into 113 games in 1965, hitting 25 homers. Mincher hit 22 homers in 346 AB's, and Minnesota won the pennant. But it was obvious that the talent logjam had be taken care of. Killebrew had to play every day, but where?

          So, in 1966 Rollins lost his job, having made the mistake of going from 16 homers in '62 and '63 to only five in '65. He was never again a starter. Killebrew played every one of Minnesota's games in 1966: 107 at third, and the rest at first and in the outfield. He hit 39 homers. Mincher hit 14 homers as essentially an everyday player and was traded to the Angels in the off-season, where he had his best seasons. In 1967 Killebrew was back at first to fill the hole left by Mincher's departure, but two years later he was back at third base, this time to make room for Rich Reese to play first. So in 1969, the Twins, instead of asking 27-year old Reese or someone else to play third, moved their star slugger, 33-year old Killebrew. Killebrew responded by winning the MVP Award (49 HR, 140 RBI) and the Twins, of course, won the AL West title.

          Killebrew played the hot corner in 1970 as well, and Minnesota repeated as AL West champions. In 1971, rookie third baseman Steve Braun came along and Killebrew was back at first base, where he remained the rest of his career, when he wasn't the DH.

          • ubelmann
            January 16th, 2007 at 8:00 pm

            Wow. How many guys do you suppose have been platooned following a season where they hit for a .315 EQA in over 600 plate appearances? I'm guessing not many. (Best EQA in a season for Jacque Jones: .288. Heh.)

            I could forgive them for wanting to get Mincher into the lineup--a career EQA of .290 is nothing to scoff at--and I'd almost kill to have a modern corner OF equivalent of Tony Oliva and Bob Alison, but what was the fascination with Rollins? Was he a lot better fielder than Killebrew?

            • brianS
              January 16th, 2007 at 8:08 pm

              Hey, that's YOUR job, ubelmann!

              Rollins comes in at +76 FRAR, -45 FRAA for his career (1002 games). He never had positive FRAA as a regular during 1962-65, with his best mark -2 in 1965. Killebrew was -74 RAA career as a 3b (791 games); Rollins -37 (828 games). That difference (obviously) is swamped by the difference at the plate (Killebrew +557 BRAA; Rollins +0 BRAA career, adjusted for all time)

              • ubelmann
                January 16th, 2007 at 8:21 pm

                Right, but we've seen FRAR give us some weird stuff in modern times (Rivas at a rate of 113 in '04 (he's brilliant!), 95 in '05 and 93 in '03 (he's a bum!)), so I don't necessarily trust it historically. I guess I was more looking for info on his reputation as a glovesman.

          • brianS
            January 16th, 2007 at 8:00 pm

            btw, what the hell was up with the BBWAA voters back in the day? FOUR YEARS to elect Killebrew? That's just stoopid.

            69th on the Sporting News' 1999 list of top 100 players of all time, but the writers took 4 cracks at electing him? Non-Veteran's Committee inductees during that period:

            1981: Bob Gibson (first year).
            1982: Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson (each first year).
            1983: Juan Marichal and Brooks Robinson (third and first, respectively).
            1984: Luis Aparicio, Don Drysdale and Harmon (6th, 9th and 4th, respectively).

          • ubelmann
            January 16th, 2007 at 8:18 pm

            I guess in the Twins' defense, Killebrew did have pretty big splits in '64 (God Bless Retrosheet):

            .262/.354/.527 -- vs. RHP
            .303/.452/.623 -- vs. LHP

            That's still a pretty hefty line against RHP, though, when league average was .242/.307/.369.

            Interesting...it would appear that Mincher was Jacque Jones before there was Jacque Jones. For his career:

            .263/.368/.481 -- vs. RHP
            .197/.271/.336 -- vs. LHP

            Rollins was only .241/.312/.330 vs. RHP in '65 and .248/.299/.393 vs. RHP in '64, so unless he was a real wiz with the glove, it looks like the Twins picked the wrong guy to platoon with Mincher. Especially considering these splits from Rollins in '64:

            .248/.299/.393 -- vs. RHP
            .303/.452/.623 -- vs. LHP

            Killebrew/Rollins against LHP and Minchner/Killebrew against RHP seems like the most logical platoon here. Considering that Killebrew was a lot better than Rollins against RHP and a lot better than Mincher against LHP, it's kind of amazing that each of them got between about 350 and 470 AB.

          • CarterHayes
            January 16th, 2007 at 8:20 pm

            Every time I read that I think about all the people who complained about the Twins jerking Cuddyer all over the field. How many homers did the Twins management rob Killebrew over the years by treating him like a super-utility guy?

  • brianS
    January 16th, 2007 at 3:57 pm

    Here is an issue near and dear to my heart. According to a recent on-line business magazine article (so take the calculations with a small grain of salt -- although they certainly aren't off by an order of magnitude or anything):

    if every one of 110 million American households bought just one
    ice-cream-cone bulb, took it home, and screwed it in the place of an
    ordinary 60-watt bulb, the energy saved would be enough to power a city
    of 1.5 million people. One bulb swapped out, enough electricity saved to
    power all the homes in Delaware and Rhode Island. In terms of oil not
    burned, or greenhouse gases not exhausted into the atmosphere, one bulb
    is equivalent to taking 1.3 million cars off the roads.

    That's right. If you were to replace just ten or eleven 60-watt bulbs in your house with equivalent-lumens CF bulbs, not only will you save considerable money over the life of the bulbs, but you also will zero-out the carbon emissions of your car.

    This is what we lefty, pinko, eco-terrorists like to call "act locally, save globally" Smile

    make this one of your (belated) New Year's resolutions. Trundle down to MegaDethMart and buy a few CF multipacks. The new ones are quiet, light up almost instantaneously, and provide a range of light "warmths" without the tremendous waste heat of incandescent bulbs.

    Of course, do NOT replace that bulb in your kid's EZ-Bake Oven. The heat there is essential!

    • ubelmann
      January 16th, 2007 at 4:35 pm

      (so take the calculations with a small grain of salt — although they certainly aren’t off by an order of magnitude or anything)

      Being at the right order of magnitude is a noble acheivement! Many times all that really matters is the order of magnitude, and that's certainly the case here.

      With that out of the way, I think you need to work on your marketing strategy. People don't want to save the world, they want to save pennies to put towards getting mlb.tv! Between not having to replace them as often and requiring just 25% as much electricity, the CFL's will save consumers money, and I'm guessing that's what most folks will care about.

      • brianS
        January 16th, 2007 at 4:48 pm

        Excellent point. Game Day Audio costs $15 for the season. If each CF bulb installed saves on net $30 over its 8-year life, one would need to install about four or five to save the cost of 8 years of Game Day Audio subscriptions.

        I'm there.

      • brink
        January 16th, 2007 at 7:57 pm

        I'd espouse a multi-pronged marketing assault.

        "Environmental Pitch" to the latte-sipping, Kos-reading, tree-hugging, namby-pamby pinko Liberals in San Francisco. "Cost Savings Pitch" to the WalMart-shopping, doublewide-owning, trans-fat-eating, red-state-living, NASCAR-viewing Conservatives in Oklahoma City.

        Oh, and a combination of both to most other demographics. Wink

    • SBG
      January 16th, 2007 at 5:21 pm

      I have a CFL in my desk lamp at home. When I'm pumping out info for the masses I'm simultaneously saving money and carbons. Plus, I have the computer on a power save mode so it never stays on too long.

    • Moss
      January 17th, 2007 at 10:09 am

      We'd actually do a hell of a lot better if we just turned the lights off once in awhile. Too many lights are left on unnecessarily.

  • twayn
    January 16th, 2007 at 3:58 pm

    SBG,
    I ran across this article today and thought you might be interested, since it relates to baseball and law. I was also interested in getting your take on the article.

    • SBG
      January 16th, 2007 at 5:13 pm

      I heard about this decision and my personal opinion is that this case was poorly decided. The Fourth Amendment jurisprudence represents a balance between personal privacy and the necessities of law and order. I prefer to protect personal privacy when there is a doubt. However, the current S.Ct. doesn't see things my way. I think this is a scary precedent indeed. The government could, for example, raid a bank's records in some case and take everyone's records. That's not right. I don't like it. But, hey, I've spoken out before on matters such as this and lo and behold I got audited. So, I won't say much more. Heh, I guess I just did.

  • brianS
    January 16th, 2007 at 7:20 pm

    I wonder about this Tim Brewster hiring. If the University is going to pony up about $1 million per year for this guy, he had better turn the fiscal picture around pretty sharply.

    Sacramento State just hired a local Juco coach for about $120K per season. I mean, why pay big money in order to lose big money? What, fundamentally, would be wrong with pulling a Kansas City Royals? Slash expenditures and suck off the Big 11 bowl tit instead of trying to compete!

    • ubelmann
      January 16th, 2007 at 7:43 pm

      What is your recourse when the Big Ten runs you out of the conference?

      I'm guessing that they're figuring on vastly increased revenues from the new stadium. Depending on how the old lease with the Metrodome worked, it's possible that attendance could go down and revenues could still go up just from moving to a stadium they control. So Brewster doesn't necessarily need to do much to turn the fiscal picture around--that's already happening.

  • kg2005
    January 16th, 2007 at 10:19 pm

    I read that Matthew Lecroy signed a minor league deal with the Twins today. Any chance he makes the roster?