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TOP 40 VORP: Torii Hunter

The Top 40 VORP list continues with the player that accumulated the 23rd highest VORP total as a member of the Minnesota Twins, Torii Hunter.

Torii Hunter is the current center fielder for the Minnesota Twins. Hunter is known for his engaging personality, his fielding prowess, and his spotty, yet occasionally spectacular output. Hunter burst onto the national scene in the first half of 2002 and was able to parlay that half season of success into $44 million. He appeared to be the heir apparent to the great Kirby Puckett. He wasn't. Since then, he’s generally failed to live up to the promise that he showed in that heady time six years ago. Then again, maybe he’s been exactly the player that people should have expected back then. My personal feeling at the time was that Hunter was going to be a superstar. My own disappointment may be a result of my own unrealistic expectations. Then again, I never offered Hunter his huge contract.

In the lens of history, Hunter’s contributions to this team, I believe, will be viewed favorably. He was a major contributor to four AL Central division championships and has been a fan favorite. Even still, not unlike a certain homegrown first baseman that is far higher on this list, Hunter leaves me wanting more. But, that’s just me.



hunter-batting.jpeg
6’2 205 LBS. Bats Right and Throws Right. Born 1975 in Pine Bluff, AR.
Member of the Twins from 1997-
VORP as a Twin: 141.1 Rank: 23rd

Year Ag G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG * OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP VORP
1997 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998 22 6 17 0 4 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 6 0.235 0.316 0.294 61 5 0 0 0 0 1 -1.1
1999 23 135 384 52 98 17 2 9 35 10 6 26 72 0.255 0.309 0.380 72 146 1 5 1 6 9 -7.1
2000 24 99 336 44 94 14 7 5 44 4 3 18 68 0.280 0.318 0.408 77 137 0 2 2 2 13 0.9
2001 25 148 564 82 147 32 5 27 92 9 6 29 125 0.261 0.306 0.479 102 270 1 1 0 8 12 18.3
2002 26 148 561 89 162 37 4 29 94 23 8 35 118 0.289 0.334 0.524 126 294 0 3 3 5 17 43
2003 27 154 581 83 145 31 4 26 102 6 7 50 106 0.250 0.312 0.451 97 262 0 6 7 5 15 11.7
2004 28 138 520 79 141 37 0 23 81 21 7 40 101 0.271 0.330 0.475 105 247 0 2 4 7 23 23.4
2005 29 98 372 63 100 24 1 14 56 23 7 34 65 0.269 0.337 0.452 107 168 0 4 3 6 8 19.4
2006 30 147 557 86 155 21 2 31 98 12 6 45 108 0.278 0.336 0.490 112 273 0 4 2 5 19 32.6
Career 1074 3892 578 1046 214 25 164 604 108 51 279 769 0.269 0.323 0.463 102 1802 2 27 22 44 117 141.1

Torii Hunter was drafted out of high school in the first round by the Minnesota Twins in 1993 and he signed with the Twins on July 12, 1993. Hunter went off to rookie ball in 1993 struggled as an 18 year old. Hunter had just 19 hits in 100 at bats and a Rondell Whitesque four walks. It was not exactly the type of results one would hope for from a first round draft pick.

Hunter's next season was much better. He hit .293/.358/.437. That .358 OBP was a career high, save for his stint at AAA Salt Lake as a 24 year old. Hunter progressed somewhat steadily through the minor leagues, and got a "Cup of Coffee" in 1997. In his only appearance, he reportedly had a memorable debut, sort of.

Torii Hunter won’t forget the first major league baseball game he saw in person: August 22, 1997, Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

He played in it.

Top of the ninth, one out, his Twins trailing, Hunter got the call to pinch run for All-Star catcher Terry Steinbach. Hunter, a 21-year-old from Pine Bluff, Arkansas, who had never come closer than a television broadcast to the big leagues before getting called up for the game, trotted nervously across the Camden Yards infield. “I’m supposed to run for you,” the rookie said to the 35-year old vet standing on first base.

Steinbach didn’t budge. “No you’re not.”

Hunter stood in front of Steinbach and 50,000 Oriole fans like a lost child. Have I made a mistake? What do I do now?

Steinbach smiled and surrendered his spot. “Just kidding. Have fun.”

Hunter didn't get an at bat in 1997. His first major league at bat came in 1998, after another year in the minors, split between AA and AAA. In his first game in which he actually had an at bat on April 29, 1998, Torii Hunter lead off and was 0-3 with a walk. His first hit came two days later when he got a pinch hit off of Arthur Rhodes that he pushed through the right side of the infield.

Hunter played six games in just over a week before being sent down again. He was up "for good" in 1999 and played in 135 games. The next season saw Hunter start with the Twins, and got off to a very nice start, hitting .305/.359/.475/.834 in April. But, by May 25th, he was hitting just .207/.243/.300/.543 and he earned a ticket to Salt Lake City. Hunter spent 55 games at AAA before getting recalled at the end of July. Hunter played much better and ended up hitting .280/.318/.408/.726. Note the low onbase percentage.


Year Team Lg Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS
1993 GCL Twins GCL 17 Rk 28 100 6 19 3 0 0 8 4 2 4 23 9 0 1 0 1 0.190 0.283 0.220 503
1994 Fort Wayne Midw 18 A 91 335 57 98 17 1 10 50 8 10 25 80 10 1 0 2 5 0.293 0.358 0.439 797
1995 Fort Myers FSL 19 A+ 113 391 64 96 15 2 7 36 7 4 38 77 12 1 5 1 8 0.246 0.330 0.348 678
1996 Fort Myers FSL 20 A+ 4 16 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0.188 0.278 0.188 466
NewBritain East 20 AA 99 342 49 90 20 3 7 33 7 7 28 60 7 1 9 1 7 0.263 0.331 0.401 732
1997 NewBritain East 21 AA 127 471 57 109 22 2 8 56 8 8 47 94 3 1 6 1 6 0.231 0.305 0.338 643
1998 NewBritain East 22 AA 82 308 42 87 24 3 6 32 11 9 19 64 4 1 4 3 2 0.282 0.329 0.438 767
Salt Lake PCL 22 AAA 26 92 15 31 7 0 4 20 2 2 1 13 1 0 2 1 3 0.337 0.347 0.543 890
2000 Salt Lake PCL 24 AAA 55 209 58 77 17 2 18 61 11 3 11 28 3 0 1 3 4 0.368 0.403 0.727 1130

In 2001, Hunter was really up for good. Hunter's defensive prowess was recognized and he won his first of what is now six consecutive Gold Gloves. He also displayed some healthy pop in his bat, clubbing 27 home runs. Hunter had hit 18 homeruns in his relatively short stint at Salt Lake, and his power was on display in the major leagues. Hunter's OBP was low again, but with a .479 slugging percentage, he had a 102 OPS+ and 18.3 VORP.

Hunter began the 2002 season like a superstar. By the All-Star game, he was hitting .306/.347/.564/.911 with 20 home runs. Playing great defense and knocking the cover off the ball -- Hunter was fast becoming a household name. He was voted to start in the 2002 All-Star game in Milwaukee. In the bottom of the first inning, Barry Bonds stepped to the plate. Bonds was fresh off of his 73 HR season and was off to another great start. Barry got a rare pitch to hit and he uncorked a long drive to right centerfield. Hunter and Ichiro! raced back and Hunter got to the wall, leaped and made what the baseball world thought was a spectacular catch. And certainly it was. While it might have been his most famous catch, it certainly wasn't out of the ordinary -- Twins fans were accustomed to seeing such plays.

hunter-catch.jpg

Bonds was robbed of a home run. And he let Hunter know about it. It was a classic moment.

hunter-bonds.jpg

Hunter cooled in the second half of the 2002 season, but his numbers were still pretty good. He hit .289/.334/.524 and finished with 29 homeruns. He had a 43 VORP, a second gold glove, national acclaim, and he was eligible for arbitration. His OBP was a little low, but he looked like he was continuing to improve. The Twins won their first division title in eleven years in 2002 and marched onto the ALCS before being disposed of by the soon-to-be World Champion Angels. Hunter had an unspectular post season, but Twins nation was energized. Torii Hunter's life was about to change.

The Twins must felt that they were getting a player who was breaking through to Kirby Puckett like superstardom. The Twins inked Hunter to a 4-year $32 million contract with a $12 million team option for a fifth season. What they got, though, was a player that would never again play as well as he did in 2002. Hunter was an All-Star starter in 2002 and has never seriously made another bid to reach that level. And that is the disappointment.

Hunter's 2003 season was a colossal disappointment. He started slowly, and on May 20th, he was hitting .217/.290/.392/.682. The Twins were sleep walking through the first half of the season as the Kansas City Royals (!) looked to be the team to beat in the AL Central. Hunter, ever the streaky hitter, then went on a hot streak and in 16 games, he was hitting .257/.345/.450/.795. Hunter pretty much hit at the level for the rest of the season and finished at .250/.312/.451/.763. His VORP was 11.7. Hunter's play improved in 2004, but he clearly wasn't the player that people might have thought that he was in 2002. However, he wasn't without his moments, including a memorable pounding that the one-time football player delivered to White Sox catcher Jamie Burke. The Twins seemed to own the White Sox and Hunter's running over of Burke was symbolic of the tire tracks that the White Sox had on their backs for the last four seasons. Hunter had his fourth consecutive gold glove and unlike a Derek Jeter gold glove, Hunter's were earned, or so it seems.

burke.jpg

During spring training 2005, Hunter made comments about his leading the team, and indicated that he would fight anyone that didn't have fun. How prophetic that turned out to be. Now making significant money, Hunter trudged through another good, but not great season. Adding to the frustration that some people (like yours truly) had with Hunter, he publicly called out the two young prospects on the team, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and indicated that these two guys weren't tough enough. The White Sox were running away from the division, the three time defending champs were fading, and there was the hints of dissension. There were reports that the Twins were thinking about trading Hunter and at least one blogger was very strongly in favor of it. He might have been traded, too, but a couple of days before the trading deadline, Hunter was seriously injured in Fenway Park trying to make a spectacular catch off of the bat of former teammate David Ortiz. Trading Hunter was now out of the question. There would be no takers... Hunter was out for the season.

Hunter left the team and retreated to his Dallas home. He made a return later in the season and was joking in the dugout at Justin Morneau's expense. I don't know if Hunter was just playing or what. I do know that Hunter had publicly called out Morneau earlier the season. Whatever happened ended with Hunter taking a swing at the future American League MVP. He missed and hit Nick Punto. It was arguably the darkest moment for the Twins since the 2001 Renaissance began.

Things would get a lot darker for the Twins. In March, 2006, Kirby Puckett, arguably the greatest player (he comes much later in this series) died suddenly. Suddenly, the trifling problems of 2005 seemed unimportant. The Twins promised to play hard to honor the memory of Puckett, but they played instead like they were in mourning. Hunter was hitting just .194/.240/.367/.607 on May 2nd and the Twins had fallen out of the AL Central Race and were sitting in fourth place, eight games out of first. Hunter went on a tear, and it seemed like he was on his annual tear, which would probably lead to nothing. With the Twins out of the race and looking unable to get back in it, surely Hunter would be dealt before the trading deadline.

The Twins unloaded the disastrous left side of their infield and committed to a youth movement, calling up the scandalously repressed Jason Bartlett and moving the up-to-that-point replacement level caliber Nick Punto to third base. They moved Francisco Liriano into the starting rotation. And the greatest four month stretch of Twins baseball was about to begin. The Twins went on a fantastic tear in June and the first part of July. About the only teams that played anywhere close to their level were the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. On July 15th, Hunter went on the disabled list with a stress fracture in his foot and the Twins were 12 games behind the Tigers and 7.5 games behind the White Sox. Surely, the Twins were done, and now Hunter was on the disabled list right before the trading deadline. Curse the luck!

Hunter came back after fifteen days. He had 14 homeruns was having a typical Hunter season, .269/.346/.441/.787. However, in two months, Hunter would hit 17 more home runs. He provided an offensive force for the Twins as they continued their relentless march to an improbable (or maybe just unbelievable) fourth division title in five years. Ironically though, Hunter, who seemingly provided his greatest value on defense, suddenly was a terrible defensive centerfielder. It was as though Hunter did not understand that he could not run full speed with a broken foot. Repeatedly, Hunter appeared to take routes to balls that showed a lack of understanding of his injury related deficiency. But, Hunter's improved offensive play seemed to make up for his defensive liability.

On September 25th, Hunter hit his 30th homerun of the season. No Twins had hit 30 homeruns from 1987 to 2006. Hunter, of course, was supposed to be the guy who would finally get there. And he finally did... but, of course, he was the second guy to get there. The first was Morneau, the guy who was the object of Hunter's ire about a year earlier. Hunter hit a two run home run on the last day of the season to break a 1-1 tie with the White Sox and lead the Twins to a 5-1 win and the Division Championship.

The Twins would play the Oakland A's in the first round of the playoffs. The Twins were favored, but they'd already won for the last time in 2006. And Hunter would display his suddenly poor defense in a crucial moment. Down 2-0 in game 2, the Twins tied it up with back to back home runs from Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau in the bottom of the sixth. The Metrodome was alive. It was about to die. In the top of the seventh with one out and a man on first, Mark Kotsay hit a looping line drive to right center field. From my seat down the left field line, I could see that the ball would fall in. I watched in horror as Hunter attempted, but failed miserably, to catch the ball. The ball rolled to the fence and Kotsay would circle the bases. What should have been a single was instead an inside the park home run. The Twins momentum was destroyed. Hunter's play was surprising to those who weren't watching Hunter in the second half of the 2006 season. The post season was an anti-climactic end to a great season. It's too bad that Hunter got exposed like that. He contributed to the Twins run to the title. Even though he did make a lot of poor plays down the stretch, he's been too good too long to have that happen.

I decided to do this countdown based upon VORP as opposed to WARP3 because it was a lot easier for me to compile the TOP 40 VORP list than it would be to do so for WARP3. But, VORP, of course, provides no value for defense, where WARP3 does. It would seem, then, that a player like Hunter would have a WARP3 number that shows more value than his VORP. However, Hunter has just 18 FRAA over his career, adjusted for all time. In 2002, the year of his great catch in the All-Star Game, Hunter accumulated -13 runs FRAA. That relatively small number of FRAA provide not a lot of value to the WARP3. Of course, the value of defensive statistics are certainly suspect. Still, baseball-reference.com reports that Hunter's range factor has been below average for four of the last five seasons. Could it be that Hunter is an overrated fielder? I don't believe it.

I've been hard on Hunter over the last few years, but I'll admit that it primarily stems from my disappointment over his failure to be the superstar I thought he'd be. Hunter's been a good player for the Twins, good enough to be a top 25 player in club history. He's also been pretty exciting. There are a lot of other things I could say about him, but I'll stop and let you guys have at it.


This entry was posted by SBG on Wednesday, February 21st, 2007 at 11:17 pm and is filed under Minnesota Twins, Top 40 VORP. It is one of 2171 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post. Why?

42 Letters to the Editor


kg2005

Wow, you said a lot about him. I've never been a huge fan of Torii's, but it was kind of startling to see so many negative things about him in one place.

Link | 12:40:25 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

And here I thought the article was generally positive. I've said a lot worse.

Link | 5:47:34 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 
 

ubelmann

Could it be that Hunter is an overrated fielder? I don’t believe it.

I don't buy it either, but I can't find much in the way of an objective record to support my observations. Tangotiger's UZR had Hunter at just 5 runs above average per 162 games from 2000 to 2003, which is probably Hunter's peak as a fielder.

If he's merely an average defensive CF, though, he puts on quite the facade. The only explanation I could possibly think up to bridge the gap between how good Hunter looks and how average his numbers are is positioning. It has been said that perhaps he likes to shade back a bit so he can make those spectacular leaping grabs at the wall. It's possible (though I personally find it unlikely) that he's giving up a lot of outs in front of him by playing back.

As an extreme example of this effect, I've played in softball leagues without fences for as long about the last seven years. It took some getting used to on my part. Eventually, after trying about every possible way to position myself in the outfield, I've just decided to play shallow. Maybe once or even twice a game I'll get burned on something over my head, but it's totally worth the extra two or three outs I can get on short fly balls/soft liners just over the infield.

Certainly it's nothing like that drastic of a trade-off for Hunter, but I'd guess that the frequency of balls hit in front of him is much greater than the frequency of balls hit to the wall. The balls hit to the wall are potentially more valuable to the offense, so that's what I'm guessing makes this whole issue (mostly) a wash.

At any rate, if Hunter's positioned poorly, during his peak that had to be his only defensive liability. He was fast, ran good routes, and had good instincts. His numbers probably suffer somewhat from having a solid infield defense through most of '01-'03 and having pretty rangy corner outfielders flanking him for much of his time in Minnesota. It's a lot easier to look good by the numbers when your teammates are letting balls drop so you get more opportunities to make outs in subsequent at-bats.

Link | 2:53:20 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

Scot

I could see an argument for a center fielder to play a bit deeper in the Metrodome, particularly on the turf Hunter was playing on during his prime defensive seasons.

Link | 6:12:34 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

Kirby Puckett played pretty damned deep, too. And you know what? His FRAA numbers are worse than Hunter's! We might be on to something here.

Link | 6:31:44 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 
 
 

ubelmann

Also, looking at his career numbers, his peak hitting numbers aren't quite as good as I'd thought. In particular, I thought he would've benefitted more in VORP from playing a position with a generally low replacement level. His 43 in '02 is pretty nice, but just 20 runs/season over the last four years is somewhat disappointing even if you thought that he couldn't repeat '02 over and over again.

During his peak, if you consider Hunter to be an elite CF, he was probably worth something like 20-25 runs a season above average with his glove. Now, I have to think that the toll the turf and his injuries have taken him down to the 10-15 run range, at best.

All things considered, Hunter looks to me to be about a 3-win player after this year. (I wouldn't be surprised if he's a bit more valuable this year with money on his mind, though.) In today's free agent market, a 3-win player can be worth $9-$10M/year. Hunter would likely get a lot more than that, though. I'm going to miss him roaming CF when he's gone, though. Heck, I missed him this year when he was a shadow of what he used to be in the field while playing at 60-70% after his injury.

Link | 3:04:07 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

His decline in the field this year was stunning, no doubt about it. If he's healthy, that might not show up again, but the more stunning thing was that he didn't adjust to who he was at the time. He still thought he was "Spiderman".

Link | 6:06:05 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

frightwig

but the more stunning thing was that he didn’t adjust to who he was at the time. He still thought he was “Spiderman”.

That's been my main ongoing frustration with Torii ever since 2002. He seems to have no true self-awareness. It's apparent in his comments about himself, teammates, and the state of the team, and you can see it when he still flails at the same pitches he couldn't hit 5 years ago.

Link | 5:04:26 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 
 
 

Rhubarb_Runner

And here I'm thinking that the real shame is what kind of write-ups the other #40 Twins are missing because they haven't played recently.

Link | 7:28:47 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 

Banjo

Beautiful. It reads like, if you could imagine this, a Dick Morris eulogy for the Clintons. I think you summed it up nicely though- Hunter's biggest crime is that he's consistently leaves you wishing for just a bit more than he can deliver.

Link | 8:15:13 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

What's your major problem with it? He's been a good player, but if you look at the results, he hasn't performed nearly as well as everyone thought he might, given his breakout season of 2002. Did you expect that I was going to write about how great he's been? I'll reserve that kind of language for the guys who provided 300 or 400 more VORP to the Twins than Hunter did (and they are out there).

You'll note, too, that I have foreshadowed disappointment with a Twin whose contribution is far greater than Hunter's. But, I know you don't agree with me on Hunter and hey, that's fine by me. But, comparing me to a Dick Morris hatchet job on the Clintons... I haven't seen anything that harsh at this page since I said on Tuesday that Earl Battey will be forgotten in Joe Mauer's shadow. :)

Link | 8:42:37 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

I guess this was the part that really got to you:

The Twins seemed to own the White Sox and Hunter’s running over of Burke was symbolic of the tire tracks that the White Sox had on their backs for the last four seasons.

Or, maybe it was this:

Barry got a rare pitch to hit and he uncorked a long drive to right centerfield. Hunter and Ichiro! raced back and Hunter got to the wall, leaped and made what the baseball world thought was a spectacular catch. And certainly it was. While it might have been his most famous catch, it certainly wasn’t out of the ordinary — Twins fans were accustomed to seeing such plays.

:) :P :P :)

Link | 8:58:52 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 

Rhubarb_Runner

Oh, I'd forgotten that Battey comment. ;)

My main issue with Hunter's performance is $$$ that were paid for it. I guess $$$ goes hand in hand with expectations, though.

I was surprised that in a writeup this long, you didn't mention that Torii was always running at the mouth available to the media for a comment.

Link | 9:28:51 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 

Banjo

I assure you the Morris reference was for dramatic effect only. Hunter is one of, if not the most maligned Twins - and he's provided most of the ammunition for that through his play or his actions. But in some cases, the vitriol for Hunter goes too far. Hunter gets villified a lot too -especially in regard to his "calling out" Morneau and Mauer. I'll say two things about that - 1.) I've personally never felt I had enough inside information to come to a formative conclusiion either way about whether is was right or wrong and 2.) A lot of people do deny the existence of at least some information to suggest he was justified. As the saying goes though - "sacred cows make great steaks."

Hunter also suffers from what I'll call the "Elaine Boosler" syndrome -like she said in the famous deodorant ad - never follow a better comedian. Puckett's shoes have proved too big for Torii to fill. As much as he wanted to, the Twins paid him to do and the fans longed for him to do, he was not and will never be Kirby Puckett. It would seem that he has one more crack at acheiving some Puckett-esque accolades by having a monster season and by being part of a historic third world championship run. But I fear his career as a Twin will end before the completion of this season and he'll be bolted on to some other team as they make a run for post-season glory.

I really can't say I disagree with anything you wrote. Your feature does read like Hunter's career - a maddening series of ups and downs.

Link | 10:07:46 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

Hunter is one of, if not the most maligned Twins

I don't agree. He's gotten a tremendous amount of positive coverage in this town. Read what Joe Christenson or Jason Williams wrote about him this week in their blogs. It's only jokers like me who rip him. You want a guy that's been maligned? Try on Kyle Lohse for size. Now, there's a guy who's been maligned. Probably deservedly so, but the treatment afforded Hunter in no way approaches what Lohse got.

Link | 10:16:21 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

Banjo

Yes, MSM has been late to the Torii-ripping party - partly because coverage of baseball has changed so much in the past 3-4 years. But they are there too. I agree that it's not at the level seen in the blogs where, if Torii wasn't public enemy number #1, he was darn close.

Link | 10:26:30 am on Feb 22, 2007 | (LTEs won't nest below this level)

SBG

Check out Jason Williams today. He's still ripping Lohse and look at how he talks about Hunter.

Link | 11:53:36 am on Feb 22, 2007 |

Diggity Dino

My favorite part of this column.

New guy Jeff Cirillo has arrived in camp, leaving Luis Castillo and Ramon Ortiz as the only two key players still not here. E.T.A. on Ortiz remains Thursday or Friday.

I wonder how delayed he would have to be to drop out of the rotation, and how much work it would take to make that happen...

Link | 12:26:12 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

Banjo

I'd say after reading this both are legitimate storylines. Nostalgia for Hunter really doesn't warrant any ripping does it? - And adding in some Denard Span copy is the MSM's velvet-glove way of introducing the inevitable. It seem like the heirarchy of ink has been spread about right - more stories about Mauer, Santana and Morneau and some waxing nostalgia for Hunter.

I've never beem a huge William's fan - regardless of the whole "you have no idea" quote, but the Lohse story is the same as it ever was - lots of talent, very inconsistent results and in the past, a pretty p-poor attitude to boot.

Link | 1:15:09 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

ubelmann

Ah, the Lohse as inconsistent story. That one always gets me. One way to look at a pitcher's inconsistency is to take the variance in his per-start performance. BP computes this each season:

FLAKE - Standard deviation of per-start SNVA for each pitcher. This was previously shown as the variance, and was used to compute the "flakiest" pitchers.

In '06 Lohse was the flakiest on the staff, but he was only given 8 starts, so that could just be a small sample size issue. In '05, Mays, Santana, and Silva all had higher FLAKE scores than Lohse. In '04, Radke, Silva, and Santana all had higher FLAKE scores than Lohse. In '03, Lohse indeed was the flakiest, but that was also arguably his best season as a Twins pitcher. In '02, Mays, Reed, and Santana were flakier than Lohse. In '01, Radke, Reed, and Milton were flakier than Lohse.

In some ways, this problem was similar to Hunter's perception problem. For some reason, people wanted to think that Lohse should be more than what he actually was. He was an innings eater who didn't get great results. He was only flaky to the extent that all pitchers are flaky. Once he got saddled with expectations to be better than you was, though, no one was giving you the benefit of the doubt (like, say, Silva gets because he is a fun guy to hang out with), it's very easy to be perceived as inconsistent.

Link | 1:33:10 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

brianS

Good points, ubelmann.

Although with Lohse, my feeling wasn't really about start-to-start variance, but rather the (perceived) within-game variance.

As with Silva last year, I frequently got the shakes whenever Lohse got through three or four scoreless innings because I just knew he was going to fold miserably before Gardy had the sense to yank him.

I wonder what his distribution of by-inning outcomes looks like relative to others on those staffs?

Link | 1:38:37 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

Banjo

Wasn't the convetional wisdom on Lohse that he had "great" stuff?

I don't think anybody ever those things about Carlos Silva. Lohse/Anderson friction had as much to do with this departure as anything. I don't think Silva will have the same rope Lohse had - even though it would appear he tried last year to do his best Lohse impersonation. Also, Terry Ryan has a very high opinion of Silva, a factor which cannot be easily dismissed, rather than the notion he is fun to hang out with.

Link | 1:45:39 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

SBG

My point was, how much bandwidth should be wasted talking about Kyle Lohse? Answer: Zero.

Link | 2:10:10 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

ubelmann

Wasn’t the convetional wisdom on Lohse that he had “great” stuff?

He has an above average curve and maybe a slightly above average fastball. Anyone who says his stuff is great is either wrong or exaggurating. You can be effective with Lohse's arsenal, because he gets enough movement on pitches and generally throws strikes, but his stuff isn't great. Santana has great stuff. Nathan has great stuff. Lohse, not so much.

My point was, how much bandwidth should be wasted talking about Kyle Lohse? Answer: Zero.

My answer is apparently different than yours. :)

Link | 2:31:16 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

ubelmann

I wonder what his distribution of by-inning outcomes looks like relative to others on those staffs?

I don't have that data off-hand. Someday I'm going to learn SQL and get the retrosheet data under control. Someday.

Link | 2:33:32 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

Diggity Dino

I wonder what his distribution of by-inning outcomes looks like relative to others on those staffs?

I think that is probably overblown as well. Without any data (the best way to argue a point) I would think that he wasn't "inconsistent" any more than all pitchers are inconsistent. Generally, a pitcher with a 4.5 ERA isn't giving up a run every other inning, runs are often scored in bunches. Santana's probably the same way, the difference is that he gives up fewer runs, so instead of a Loshe-like game of 7 IP, 3 runs (all in the same inning) you get a game of 8 IP, 2 runs (both in the same inning).

That could be medium-rare crap though.

Link | 4:17:23 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

ubelmann

It would stand to reason that if a team has constructed its lineup in the traditional way, that runs would most often be scored "in bunches." After all, we expect the top of the order to score more often than the bottom of the order, right?

I tend to agree with Mr. Dino, though. Even if Lohse's per-inning run distribution was a bit flakier than average, there's so much inherent statistical variance there that you're not really going to notice it by casually observing.

Link | 4:57:22 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

brianS

right. you won't see it via casual observation. you need to see the actual outcome distribution where the unit of observation is "inning".

I think we more-or-less expect counts of runs allowed to be pretty close to Poisson-distributed. Pitchers generally are removed before they allow more than 4-5 runs in a single inning, so the upper tail will be censored. And the count of runs allowed in an inning probably isn't independent of runs allowed in the preceding inning, so Poisson isn't quite right. But possibly close enough for government work.

suppose a pitcher has an ERA of 4.5 (expected 0.5 runs allowed per inning pitched). Assume Poisson-distributed outcomes. Over 200 innings, he should produce about 121 innings in which he allows zero runs, 61 in which he allows 1 run, 15 in which he allows 2 runs, 2-3 in which he allows 3 runs.

Hmm. Even I don't believe that. Runs scored data surely is over-disbursed relative to Poisson-distributed expectations. That's got to be too many observations of single-run outcomes and not enough of zero-run and 3+ run events.

Ok. let's look at some game results for Lohse then.

From 2005:
4-08: 4 in 5.1. 4 zeros, 1 one, 0 twos, 1 three run inning
4-13: 4 in 6.1. 3.1 zeros, 2 ones, 1 two, 0 three.
4-18: 5 in 6.0. 3, 1, 2, 0.
4-28: 3 in 4.0. 3, 0, 0, 1.
5-07: 1 in 5.0. 4, 1, 0, 0.
5-14: 1 in 2.0. 1, 1, 0, 0.
5-18: 2 in 6.0. 4, 2, 0, 0.
5-23: 2 in 7.1. 6, 2, 0, 0.
5-28: 1 in 7.0. 6, 1, 0, 0.
6-03: 3 in 6.0. 4, 1, 1, 0.
6-09: 4 in 6.0. 4, 1, 0, 1.
6-15: 5 in 7.0. 5, 1, 0, 0, 1.
6-21: 6 in 4.2. 3, 0, 0, 2.
6-26: 0 in 6.0. 6, 0, 0, 0.

through June 2005, that's 77.2 innings, 41 ER (4.75 ERA) over 14 appearances (13 starts). An average of 2.93 runs per appearance (std dev of 1.8). 56+ zero innings, 14 one-run innings, 4 two-run, 5 three-run and 1 4-run inning. That's WAY too many 3+ run innings for Poisson-distributed data.

Umm, what's my point other than that this sample of Lohse's results isn't consistent with a simple Poisson-distributed DGP? Not much without looking at some other pitchers and larger samples. But I think it IS consistent with our -- other than ubelmann, anyway :-) -- shared impression that Lohse was inconsistent.

Link | 8:02:10 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

brianS

sorry. I didn't finish. (sorry that I didn't finish; sorry that I'm doing this to you all -- HAH).

the hypothesis was that Lohse's results were Poisson-distributed. So with an ERA of 4.75, that translates into the following outcome expectations over 77.2 innings: 46 zero-run innings, 24 one-run, 6.4 two-run, 1 three-run and only a small fraction of any 4+ run innings.

Link | 8:10:12 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

ubelmann

I could maybe believe the Poisson distribution if doubles, triples, and HR weren't allowed. To go 77 IP and limit yourself to just one three-run HR and then no other three-run innings would be pretty difficult. Not impossible, just difficult.

My point in the first place was that Lohse wasn't really any more inconsistent than other pitchers of his caliber--a point you haven't addressed at all. More data, please!

Link | 9:01:05 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

New Britain Bo

More data, please!

brianS: Feed th' machine.

Link | 9:10:45 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 

brianS

like I said, Lohse's sample data is considerably "over-dispersed" relative to a Poisson distribution with the same mean as his ERA. Which is consistent with the alternative hypothesis that Lohse was "inconsistent".

Maybe if I have trouble sleeping, I'll draw a sample for Santana tonight.

Link | 10:43:37 pm on Feb 22, 2007 |
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

AMR

Thanks for a great article, SBG.
Unfortunately, the Twins did not make the playoffs in 2001. 2001 Was DBacks over Yanquis. The Twins' ALCS loss to the Angels was in 2002.
2003 and 2004 had the heartbreaking ALDS losses to the Yanquis.

Link | 8:38:55 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

I'll correct that.

Link | 8:43:11 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

AMR

I only know it that well because 2001 was when I started paying attention again.

Link | 11:38:20 am on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

I knew it too, but I was writing this column during the Wolves game, I caught the choke bug (even though I wasn't watching the game), and fell flat on my face.

Link | 12:29:44 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 
 
 
 

CarterHayes

More than likely this point is moot, at least as far as it concerns the Twins. I've often wondered if Hunter would follow the Puckett model and move gracefully to a corner outfield position if a younger, more able center fielder were waiting in the wings. My guess is that, regardless of where Hunter spends the next three - five years after 2007 he'll be more in line with the Bernie Williams model, an aging defensive albatross who remains in center largely on reputation. If I'm right, I hope he does it elsewhere.

That said, replacing the guy at #23 on the all-time VORP list isn't going to be easy, and with the lack of internal options, it probably won't be cheap either. The good news is that the market for CF "talent" will be considerably better than this past year: Hunter, Ichiro!, Andruw Jones, and Mike Cameron are the headliners, with guys like Eric Byrnes, Corey Patterson, and Aaron Rowand on the lower tier. The bad news is that about half the MLB will probably be looking for a better CF option.

I have no idea where this leaves the Twins in 2008.

Link | 12:09:10 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

SBG

Is Rich Becker available?

Link | 12:27:35 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

CarterHayes

I can ask around. The future Mrs. Hayes had Rich's dad as her junior high gym teacher. I could probably approach him that way...

Link | 1:59:58 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 
 
 

Banjo

Like many at the WGOM, JW of the PiPress is a 2nd tier read compared to LENIII and the strib crew - but this Gary quote about Matt LeCroy was priceless:

LeCroy, 31, is going to enjoy it whether his career lasts another day or 10 more years. And he has set a goal for his post-playing days. He wants to become a major league manager, and many in the Twins organization view him as a fit for that role someday.

"We all know what kind of a guy he is, how respected he is in this organization," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He's pretty close to having the body for (a manager) right now. I know he has the speed."

Link | 12:21:50 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply

brianS

LeCroy hits too well and doesn't do enough of the little things well enough to make it as a manager. At least in the Twins organization.

Link | 1:28:38 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 

AMR

Twins roster still lists LeCroy as a catcher. (On the non-roster invitee page.) Wonder if the Cards still list Ankiel as a pitcher? It's gotta be tough to shake that position tag. (Nope: Ankiel listed as an outfielder.)

Link | 10:21:45 pm on Feb 22, 2007 | Log in to Reply
 
 

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