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TOP 40 VORP: Rick Aguilera

Posted by SBG on Sunday, February 25th, 2007 at 10:36 am

The Top 40 VORP list continues with the player that accumulated the 20th highest VORP total as a member of the Minnesota Twins, Rick Aguilera. (Note: After the 2007 season, Aguilera's VORP total is now 21st All-Time.) Aguilera is the ninth pitcher and third reliever covered in this series. He has the highest VORP total of any reliever in Twins history.

Rick Aguilera was the winning pitcher in two of the most exciting World Series games you will ever see. He came to the Twins in the blockbuster Frank Viola deal and was a big part of the Twins second World Championship. Aguilera had two stints with the Twins, having been traded to the Red Sox and returning after his contract with the Red Sox expired. Aguilera was a very good player for the Twins – he was willing to pitch as a reliever and a starter. I was a big fan and really enjoyed watching him pitch for the Twins. But, sometimes baseball is a cruel mistress. My most enduring memory of Rick Aguilera as a Twin is a profoundly negative one. It’s sad, but true. This very good player for the Twins was part of a huge moment that signaled the end of the glory years of the late eighties and early nineties. That moment was nothing less than the beginning of a long cold Dark Age known as the mid-to-late nineties.


aggie.jpg
6’5 205 LBS. Batted Right and Threw Right. Born 1961 in San Gabriel, CA.
Member of the Twins from 1989-1999 (although not continuously) Uniform #17 (1989) #38 (1990-1999)
VORP as a Twin: 164.6 Rank as of the completion of the 2007 season: 20th21st

Yr Ag Tm W L G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HP WP BF IBB BK ERA lg ERA ERA + WHIP VORP
85 23 NYM 10 7 21 19 2 0 1 0 122.3 118 49 44 8 37 74 2 5 507 2 2 3.24 3.45 107 1.27
86 24 NYM 10 7 28 20 2 0 2 0 141.7 145 70 61 15 36 104 7 5 605 1 3 3.87 3.54 91 1.28
87 25 NYM 11 3 18 17 1 0 0 0 115 124 53 46 12 33 77 3 9 494 2 0 3.60 3.80 106 1.37
88 26 NYM 0 4 11 3 0 0 2 0 24.7 29 20 19 2 10 16 1 1 111 2 1 6.92 3.21 46 1.58
89 27 NYM 6 6 36 0 0 0 19 7 69.3 59 19 18 3 21 80 2 3 284 3 3 2.34 3.26 139 1.15
MIN 3 5 11 11 3 0 0 0 75.7 71 32 27 5 17 57 1 1 310 1 0 3.21 4.16 130 1.16 13.2
90 28 MIN 5 3 56 0 0 0 54 32 65.3 55 27 20 5 19 61 4 3 268 6 0 2.76 4.15 151 1.13 11
91 29 MIN 4 5 63 0 0 0 60 42 69 44 20 18 3 30 61 1 3 275 6 0 2.35 4.27 182 1.07 21.4
92 30 MIN 2 6 64 0 0 0 61 41 66.7 60 28 21 7 17 52 1 5 273 4 0 2.83 4.07 143 1.15 10.2
93 31 MIN 4 3 65 0 0 0 61 34 72.3 60 25 25 9 14 59 1 1 287 3 0 3.11 4.42 142 1.02 22
94 32 MIN 1 4 44 0 0 0 40 23 44.7 57 23 18 7 10 46 0 2 201 3 0 3.62 4.85 134 1.50 10.4
95 33 MIN 1 1 22 0 0 0 21 12 25 20 7 7 2 6 29 1 0 99 1 0 2.52 4.72 187 1.04 10.8
BOS 2 2 30 0 0 0 30 20 30.3 26 9 9 4 7 23 0 0 124 0 0 2.67 4.82 180 1.09
96 34 MIN 8 6 19 19 2 0 0 0 111.3 124 69 67 20 27 83 3 6 484 1 0 5.42 5.15 95 1.36 16.5
97 35 MIN 5 4 61 0 0 0 57 26 68.3 65 29 29 9 22 68 2 3 285 3 0 3.82 4.66 122 1.27 18.4
98 36 MIN 4 9 68 0 0 0 64 38 74.3 75 35 35 8 15 57 1 1 307 1 0 4.24 4.70 111 1.21 17.6
99 37 MIN 3 1 17 0 0 0 16 6 21.3 10 3 3 2 2 13 0 1 76 0 1 1.27 5.07 400 0.56 13.1
CHC 6 3 44 0 0 0 25 8 46.3 44 22 19 6 10 32 2 3 191 1 0 3.69 4.84 131 1.17
00 38 CHC 1 2 54 0 0 0 44 29 47.7 47 28 26 11 18 38 4 1 210 2 0 4.91 4.27 87 1.36
Twins 40 47 490 30 5 0 434 254 693.9 641 298 270 77 179 586 15 26 2865 29 1 3.50 1.18 164.6
Elsewhere 46 34 242 59 5 0 123 64 597.3 592 270 242 61 172 444 21 27 2526 13 9 3.65 1.28
Career 86 81 732 89 10 0 557 318 1291.2 1233 568 512 138 351 1030 36 53 5391 42 10 3.57 117 1.23

Rick Aguilera was drafted by the New York Mets in the third round of the 1983 amateur draft out of Brigham Young University. He signed as a 21 year old (born December 31, 1961) and entered the Mets organization. He made his major league debut with the Mets on June 12, 1985 in the tenth inning of a game in Philadelphia started by Ron Darling. He relieved Jesse Orosco. Aguilera pitched a scoreless bottom of the tenth inning – the Mets got a four spot in the top of the 11th (Aguilera made the final out). Aggie finished the eleventh and got the win. Aggie kind of vultured that win, but nevertheless, he got it and he was 1-0.

Sometimes when I look at the player next on this list, I have certain ideas that I want to write about. Other times, especially when I never saw the player play I have little idea about what I want to say. With Aguilera, I have a list of ideas. But, I’ll admit that performing the perfunctionary task of chronicling his first major league game (why is that important anyway? I think I got that idea from Gleeman) I was floored by the box score and all that it portended.

First of all, Aguilera was not, at that time, a reliever. Of course, it’s not uncommon for a pitcher to make his debut in relief, but Aguilera came into that game in a situation where Ron Gardenhire might use Joe Nathan today – in extra innings on the road. In other words, Aguilera was used in the closer role (although back in 1983, such strict bullpen use was not as clearly defined as it is today).

Second, Aguilera came on in relief of Jesse Orosco. Orosco came over to the Mets from the Twins as a pitching prospect in the 1979 trade for Jerry Koosman, who we’ve already chronicled in this list.

Third, the game was started by Ron Darling. Darling was a pretty good major league pitcher, but he was well known for a pitching in perhaps the best NCAA tournament game, ever. On May 21, 1981, Darling pitched for Yale(!) in the first round of the NCAA tournament against St. John’s University. Darling held the Redmen (yes, that was their nickname) hitless for 11 innings, but surrendered a hit in the twelfth. There was an error and a double steal and the Redman pushed across a run to win, 1-0. The pitcher for the Redman that day? None other than Frank Viola.

Finally, Aguilera was a “vulture,” picking up a win in a situation where he pitched a short period of time but benefited from circumstances. That game foretold a huge part of Aguilera’s career.

Aguilera started 19 of his 21 games in 1985 and had a pretty good rookie campaign. He was 10-7 with a 3.24 ERA (107 ERA+), but of course, he was overshadowed on that brilliant (I hated them) young Mets staff. The 24 year old Darling was 16-6, 2.90, 22 year old Sid Fernandez was 9-9, but with a 2.80 ERA. Then, there was some 20 year old guy who was 24-4, 1.53. The Mets were 98-64, good for 2nd place in the NL East behind the 101 win St. Louis Cardinals. It was the Mets’ second consecutive second place finish with this young team (in both years, they would have made the playoffs under the current expanded format) and surely greater things lie ahead.

The next season, things fell into place for the Mets. Their young pitching staff, bolstered by grizzled veteran Bob Ojeda (he was 28 and acquired in an off-season trade with the Red Sox) lead the NL in fewest runs allowed. Gooden, Darling, Ojeda, and Fernandez were terrific. Aguilera, at 10-7, 3.88 (ERA+ 91) was a fifth starter and was used 8 times in relief. The Mets stormed through the regular season, winning 108 games with ease. The playoffs were anything but easy. The Mets prevailed in a bruising NLCS against the Houston Astros, winning in six games. The Mets won game three, pushing two runs across in the bottom of the ninth. They won game five in twelve innings. The Mets outlasted the Astros in a 16 inning thriller in game six. The Mets were shut out until the ninth until they scored three to tie the game. Then, they scored in the 14th, but the Astros answered. In the 16th, the Mets got three runs and the Astros answered with two. It was an unbelievable series, ended by an unbelievable game 6. Even more unbelievably, the best was yet to come.

The 1986 World Series, of course, was one for the ages. The Red Sox, you may be aware, hadn’t won a World Series in some time. The Mets were a power house with their 108 wins, awesome pitching staff, and an offense that led the NL in runs scored. They were bruised by that NLCS, but it wasn’t as if the Boston Red Sox waltzed into the World Series. The Red Sox had the best record in the American League (95-66) and they had their own young gun to counter Dwight Gooden, a fellow by the name of Roger Clemens. Clemens was 24-4 that season and had burst onto the scene with a 20 strikeout effort against the Seattle Mariners. In the ALCS, the Red Sox had fallen on hard times, trailing the California Angels 3 games to 1. Even worse, they headed to the ninth inning of game five trailing 5-2. Once again, the Red Sox faithful were going to be disappointed. In the top of the ninth, Mike Witt, the Angels starter came in promptly gave up a single to Bill Buckner, who was removed for a pinch runner. Jim Rice struck out, but Don Baylor homered, cutting the lead to 5-4. Dwight Evans popped up and the Red Sox were down to one out. Gary Lucas relieved Witt and hit the only batter he faced.

The Angels called on their closer, Donny Moore. Up to the plate walked Dave Henderson, the same Dave Henderson that belted three home runs in the game in which Brian Harper led a Twins come back – the game of the 1991 season for the Twins. Hendu, acquired in a deadline deal from the Seattle Mariners, saved the season for the Red Sox by hitting a two-run home run. In what can only be described as par for the course in this wacky post season, the Angels got a run in the ninth to tie the game. The Angels stayed with Moore and in the 11th, Henderson hit a sacrifice fly to win the game. The Angels were one out from the World Series in game five. They were trounced in games six and seven and missed out. Moore would never really recover and he tragically ended his own life in 1989. Baseball is a cruel game, sometimes.

More cruelty was in store.

The Red Sox would storm out to 2-0 lead in the World Series, winning two games in New York. The Mets returned the favor in Boston. In Game 5, the Red Sox got to Gooden and won. Then, it was time for Game 6, a game seared into the minds of anyone who saw it. The game was tied after nine innings. In the top of the tenth, Dave Effing Henderson hit a home run off of our guy, Rick Aguilera, to give the Red Sox the lead. Aggie would give up another run and the Mets were about to lose the World Series – our guy Aguilera was going to be the goat.

Then, the world turned upside down.

Of course, the Mets won Game 7, Buckner has been vilified for over 20 years and the Red Sox Nation was revealed to be a bunch of whiners. I suppose I could write a lot about that game, but this is supposed to be about Aguilera. Aggie dodged a HUGE bullet there – he was the “winner” despite giving up a huge home run. In another circumstance, a Dave Henderson home run was a killer. Here, it was merely prologue.

As a personal note, I was in college at the time and my next door neighbor was the catcher for the NDSU baseball team. He was also a big bandwagon Mets fan and he hated the Twins. I hated the Mets. When that ball ran through Billy Buck’s legs, he came over to my apartment and stuck it in my face. I would exact revenge the next season, friends! How sweet it was! My main man Frankie V lead the Minnesota Twins to a World Championship. During the 1987 Championship drive, I referred to Viola as the “Big, Tall, Raaaaangy Left-Hander”. Being big, tall, rangy, and left-handed myself, I acquired for a short time the moniker “BigTallRangy”. All one word.

Anyway, it was a dream come true. The Twins were World Champions and my guy was the MVP. Plus, he followed that up with a brilliant 1988 campaign, going 24-7 and winning the Cy Young award. But, baseball is a cruel game sometimes. In the off season, Viola was up for a new contract, and the negotiations were ugly, to say the least. He got his money, 3 years, $7.9 million, but there was a fracture. In the middle of the 1989 season, Frankie “Sweet Music” Viola was traded to the hated Bertin’ Mets. I was outraged. And all we got was a pile of beans. David West? Kevin Tapani? (Who’s he? Answer: we’ll discuss that in a later edition of this series.) Rick Aguilera? He’s no good. We’ve been robbed, I told everyone who would listen.

Of course, the pile of beans, thrown out the window by yours truly, grew into another World Championship. Aguilera was converted into a closer, Tapani was a very effective starter, and a few other cast off pieces were assembled around Puck and Herbie and voila! time for another parade.

But, before the parade, there would be another Game 6. While not quite as insane as the Game 6 five years earlier, it featured the signature game of arguably the greatest Twins player of all time. When Kirby Puckett hit that 11th inning home run off of Charlie Leibrandt, the pitcher of record for the Twins was some guy named Rick Aguilera. Of course, Aguilera was now an All-Star pitcher and he wasn’t almost the goat. But, still, there he was vulturing another game for the ages, this time for the Twins. How was it possible? Look back to that first game of his career. He relieved a pitcher who was involved in a trade with the Twins. The starter was Darling, forever linked with Frankie Viola through their epic confrontation in college. He came in as a reliever and got a vulture win. It’s as obvious now that that game was as prescient as a Nostradamus prediction.

It seems that Aguilera was living a charmed life. He was a part of two World Championships and also part of two of the greatest World Series ever played. With all the bad things that happened around him in 1986, it seemed as though he might some day have a bill due with the baseball gods. He did, and they collected.

The 1992 Twins had lost Jack Morris in his money grab after weeping openly the season before about how much he wanted to pitch in Minnesota. The Twins, however, went out and traded for John Smiley and seemingly wasn’t missing a beat. They were playing in a very tough division, including, of course, the hated A’s. But, the Twins had, by the middle of July, moved to the front of the pack. Of course, there was a lot of season to play, and the big, bad A’s were coming to town.

Living out in ND could be kind of boring, so I liked to make baseball trips. My brother, the Mayor, was 16 then and I asked him if he wanted to make a trip with me. And what trip this was gonna be. We were going to Chicago to take in a couple of games between the hapless Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates and then a game between the Twins and A’s in Minneapolis. On July 27, 1992, we were in Chicago outside of Wrigley field, looking to find some tickets for the left field bleachers when a cab pulled up to the sidewalk about ten feet away from us. The door opened and there he was. Barry effing Bonds. No team bus for Barry. He walked out of the cab, signed a few autographs and headed into the stadium. We were absolutely giddy. Greg Maddux was pitching that night (a night game at Wrigley!) and there was the baseball god himself. Man, what a trip this was gonna be. Maddux threw a gem that night and Barry took the collar. The fans in the left field bleachers (where we were sitting) were all talking about the possibility of Maddux leaving after season (he did, after collecting the Cy Young Award). Plus, there was Bonds in front of us, and the Bums were in a full throated and unrelenting verbal assault on number 24.

The next day, we enjoyed Wrigley again and again the Cubs won 11-1. Bonds had a double and 12 put outs, one of which occurred as he was being doused with a full beer up along the left field fence (no ejection of the fan!). What a great time. We drove back to Minneapolis for the next day’s festivities. That morning, the Mayor and I went to the Twins pro shop and I bought myself a Twins 1991 World Championship coffee mug. I came to curse that mug and eventually disposed of it.

The Twins had been running hot before Oakland came to town, going 20-7 in their previous 27 games. Oakland, too, was playing well and came to town three games behind the Twins. While the Mayor and I were out yukking it up in Chicago, the Twins were losing the first two games of a three game series, setting up a crucial final game – and we were gonna be there. And I had my new mug.

The game started poorly with the A’s getting a couple of unearned runs in the first. But, they responded with single runs in the first, second, and third to take a one-run lead. Soft-tossing lefty Bill Krueger held the A’s down, allowing only the two unearned runs in the first. In the bottom of the eighth, the Twins added another run. It was 4-2 and Rick Aguilera was coming in to finish off the game. Instead, he finished off the season.

The A’s greeted Aguilera with a pair of singles before Rickey Henderson flew out moving runners to second and third. Up to the plate stepped 28 year old rookie Eric Fox. Fox had been drafted in the 1984, 85, and 86 drafts before he signed with the Seattle Mariners. He washed out of the Mariner organization and bounced between AA and AAA for four seasons with the A’s. Finally, he was called up in July of 1992. And here he was, facing one of the best closers in all of baseball. In a crucial game. With the game on the line.

I’m not sure that Aguilera could have gotten me out that night. It was just time to pay the baseball gods. Eric Fox, a career minor leaguer, launched a three run home run to give the A’s the lead and the win. The A’s had their sweep and a share of first place. I turned to my brother and said that the Twins have just been psychologically eliminated. It was less than a year earlier that I had pronounced to my other brother that Brian Harper’s incredible home run would propel the Twins to World’s Championship. And now, here I was, watching the baseball gods collect from Rick Aguilera, and from me. It was over. The season was over, and as it turned out, the era was over.

The Twins would fade badly down the stretch, and end up six games behind the A’s. As a franchise, things would steadily deteriorate. Smiley left after the 1992 season. Hrbek retired after the strike. Puckett would be forced from the game. The Twins would not have another winning season for the rest of the decade. The Metrodome, already a bad baseball park would be almost funereal on game days.

Meanwhile, Rick Aguilera would be a valuable piece of the Twins team. He would pitch effectively and the Twins would use him as a trading chip not once, but twice. The first time, the Twins sent him to the Red Sox (ha! How many loops will be closed!) for Frankie Rodriguez in July, 1995. At the end of the season, he would return to the Twins for the 1996 campaign, which held so much promise before Puckett’s career ending onset of glaucoma. Aggie was a starter during that 1996 campaign, but he didn’t fare all that well, and I believe he got hurt. It was back to the bullpen in 1997. In 1999, he was dealt to the Cubs for Kyle Lohse. By that time, Aggie was an aging veteran and he finished there in Chicago.

I suppose that there’s a lot more I could say about Rick Aguilera and his time with the Twins. I liked him and I thought he was pretty effective. Considering all of the problems that accompanied those Mets teams of the mid-to-late eighties, Aguilera came through apparently unscathed. He’s apparently a devout Morman (imagine how he handled playing with Gooden, Hernandez, Carter, Strawberry et al.) and coaches high school baseball coach in the San Diego area for a Christian Prep School. So, he’s a good guy and was a very good player for the Twins. That’s one side of the story. But, how can you talk about Aggie and not mention his involvement some of the biggest moments in baseball and also not mention Eric Fox? That, I believe is the bigger story. I certainly don't mean to imply that Rick Aguilera started the demise of the Twins franchise by giving up that home run, but there's very little denying that that particular event sticks out as a marker from which the decline can be traced. And damn me for buying that stupid coffee mug.

I love her, but sometimes baseball is a cruel mistress.


This entry was posted by SBG on Sunday, February 25th, 2007 at 10:36 am and is filed under Top 40 VORP. It is one of 2393 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post. Why?

19 LTEs

CarterHayes
CarterHayes replied on February 25th, 2007 at 1:54 pm

No mention at all of the circumstances that led Aggie to pinch-hit for Mark Guthrie in Game Three? It was the first time a pitcher (Don Drysdale) had pinch-hit in the Series since 1965.

New Britain Bo
New Britain Bo replied on February 26th, 2007 at 7:04 pm

I have this glove in the bunk-house at my Mom's that, according to my Dad, used to be Don Drysdale's. Would love to validate/authenticate this - it's pretty beat up tho.

 
 
Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on February 25th, 2007 at 3:37 pm

The Aggie injury you refer to was the infamous "suitcase" (elbow?) injury.

My most memorable Aggie blown save was during the incredible winning streak of 1991. If my memory serves, the Twins' longest winning streak could have been four wins longer.

SBG
SBG replied on February 26th, 2007 at 5:05 pm

Five wins, counting that game. It would have been twenty in a row. I was talking to Moss today and Moss reminded me that that blown save was memorialized in the movie "A Few Good Men".

Moss replied on February 26th, 2007 at 6:22 pm

Moss was trying to post those facts last nite when the site went kerpleewy.

 
 
 
brianS
brianS replied on February 26th, 2007 at 4:57 pm

Hall of Fame beard. Doobie Brothers-worthy beard.

 
Banjo
Banjo replied on February 26th, 2007 at 5:57 pm

My mom's all-time favorite Twin - RA. The #1 reason (and only reason) - that lucious piece of facial turf.

 
Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on February 26th, 2007 at 6:09 pm

Sometimes, I think you leave the Twins total line unhighlighted just to give me something to write about, SBG. Thanks.

 
spycake
spycake replied on February 26th, 2007 at 7:31 pm

I remember hearing the Eric Fox shot on the radio. That indeed sucked, but heck, we won the WS barely 9 months prior.

I always kinda wished the Aguilera starting experiment had continued. He had some injuries that year, but he wound up with a 95 ERA+ and a pretty impressive K/BB ratio. And lord knows those mid- to late-90's Twins teams needed a good starter more than a good closer. Oh well.

 
spycake
spycake replied on February 26th, 2007 at 7:33 pm

Also, beard-related, my 2nd grade teacher was a big fan of Jeff Reardon.

 
CarterHayes
CarterHayes replied on February 26th, 2007 at 9:30 pm

My biggest complaint with the Twins' bullpen of recent years has been the lack of good facial hair. Apart from Mulholland, I can't think of anyone in recent memory I've seen with a full beard.

To paraphrase a favorite film of mine: Aggie's beard reminds me of the heady days of the Big Train and Steve Bedrosian, when the league trembled at the depth of our bullpen.

brianS
brianS replied on February 26th, 2007 at 10:58 pm

Oh, yea. I'd almost forgotten the Bedrock. Reardon, Aggie and Bedrock are definitely the Big 3 of Twins bullpen facial hair over the last 2 decades.

Mike Marshall had some mean sideburns to go with a quality 'stache back in the Mauch Epoch. Then came some dark days, however. Ron Davis really needed to grow a Hrabosky after he came to Minnesota, for example.

 
AMR
AMR replied on February 27th, 2007 at 9:15 am

Bullpen beards:
Crain had a decent beard for a while, but he's also had a little goatee and the amish-hippie thing, as well as being clean-shaven.
J.C. Romero had a great (but short) full beard for a while.
Dennys Reyes has also worn a full beard, but I can't remember if that was with the Twins.
I thought Liriano's thin beard looked pretty badass, and he was in the bullpen for a while.

It should be obvious that the best beard on the team is there for Boof to take, with a dedicated Dennys the only real cometition.

 
 
Nate Tubbs Rules
Nate Tubbs Rules replied on February 26th, 2007 at 11:58 pm

So, I'm doing the math and seeing who is sitting at 41-50 on VORP and I still can't figure out a couple of VORP questions assuming this group is the top19 (not necessarily in this order)

1. Killebrew (gotta be #1)
2. Carew (gotta be #2)
3. Puckett no doubter
4. Oliva ditto
5. Hrbek double ditto
6. Blyleven highest rated pitcher?
7. Allison
8. Kaat
9. Johan
10. Radke
11. Perry
12. Knoblauch
13. Viola
14. Goltz
15. Pascual
16. Tapani (already alluded by SBG he was coming)
17. Mack (already alluded by SBG he was coming)
18. Koskie (I'd think, with the high OPS+ for 6 seasons he'd be a lock)
19. Smalley (an OPS+ of 104 from SS you'd think would put him on the list)

First question, unless one of the above guys I've listed doesn't make the cut than Dean Chance didn't crack the top50. How did Koosman (less IP, less ERA+, both played for 3 years crack the top 40 but no Chance?)

How are hitters so undervalued that 6 years of below average starting pitching (ERA+ of 93 for Lohse) is better than 7 years of slightly above average hitting (OPS+ of 101 for Jacque Jones)

Brunansky had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ than Lawton and yet was behind him on the list, is this all due to RFs being better in the 80s than they were in the late 90s/early 00's?

Shouldn't Worthington be ahead of Rincon (more IP, better ERA+?)

Is Trombley ahead of Mudcat simply by pitching more seasons for the Twins (because his ERA+ and IP are lower)

If 4 decent seasons by Geoff Zahn gets you in the top40 (106 ERA+) how come 4 decent seasons by Dan Ford doesn't even crack the top50? (114 OPS+) and yet Jack Kralick just needs 2 decent seasons to finish ahead of him (112 ERA+)

Maybe I should ask Reusse's bum to break down these stats for me, but it just seems that VORP overvalues pitchers a tad when stacked up in a list such as this.

SBG
SBG replied on February 27th, 2007 at 5:17 am

Not in that order, but that looks to be the correct 19.

I'm with you -- I think that pitching may be overvalued. Of course, we don't know how VORP is calculated (BP keeps it a secret) and there's no adjusted for all time component. The list has more hitters than pitchers, but then again until relatively recently, this organization was all about hitting and not pitching.

My advice is to take the list with a grain of salt. It wasn't my intention to name the top 40 Twins players -- Gleeman is doing that. I'm just taking a single stat (VORP), which doesn't consider defense. Furthermore, I've mixed pitching and hitting, which can be a problem. Nevertheless, that's what I've done. It has the advantage of measuring players by the quality of their contribution and is position adjusted.

I was surprised with the Brunansky exclusion and the Trombley inclusion. Lawton had 95.0 VORP. Brunansky has 93.2. Not much difference between 39 and 41. In fact, here's the VORP totals so far on the list

20 164.6
21 149.9
22 141.9
23 141.1
24 137
25 133.8
26 132.7
27 131.5
28 130.1
29 123.4
30 122.7
31 118.4
32 114.2
33 111.9
34 107.3
35 102.2
36 101.3
37 100.5
38 97.1
39 96.3
40 95

You've got the 19 remaining on the list and in relatively good order (although only one of those on your list is in exactly the right spot). There will be some surprises, I think. The spread is going to increase. There's not a whole lot of difference between number 40 and number 20. But that's about to change.

brianS
brianS replied on February 27th, 2007 at 10:37 am

I’m with you — I think that pitching may be overvalued.

Remember, it's called "VORP" for a reason. Value Over Replacement Player. Not value above average. Outfielders who hit around league-average OPS are eminently replaceable, it would seem. Starting pitchers who can deliver league-average ERA+ for 200+ innings are not (Kyle Lohse be damned -- just to preempt ubelmann).

SBG
SBG replied on February 27th, 2007 at 11:06 am

There may be a bias in the numbers for more recent pitchers as compared to the old-timers. I think you'll see what I mean eventually.

 
 
 
 
Nate Tubbs Rules
Nate Tubbs Rules replied on February 27th, 2007 at 8:48 am

Thanks for the response and I know that you aren't condoning the rankings the VORP is giving us, but they are great reads, keep em coming. I'm not surprised that we'll see a big jump now that we're in the top20 since there are some far more impressive resumes. Out of curiosity did some of the guys I mentioned fall in right outside the top50? (Jones, Ford, Mudcat, Chance, Worthington). And yes, I realize this is basically the same question I asked last week, I promise I'll stop now and won't make you list the VORP for all 600+ Twin players.

SBG
SBG replied on February 27th, 2007 at 9:14 am

I'll check that out tonight and get back to you. I think Jones was close and Morneau is rising (he was at replacement level in 2005, but a healthy 2006 moved him up). I'll drop you an e-mail (I have it) with more information. Nice work on discerning the top 19. :)

 
 

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