Let the season begin. After a great, fantastic, fantabulous season last year, our boys are ready to go again. I have optimism, even as I know that the Twins have weaknesses and are playing in a tough division. I don't make predictions about the leagues or awards or that kind of stuff -- I don't think anyone cares about my predictions. What I do think, though, is that the Twins will be contending and that this season will be a memorable one.
Thanks to Big Mak for the series preview and to Scott Hoffman of Oriole Hangout for his first hand account of things in Oriole Land. And now, it's on with the show!
ESPN preview.
Update: Twins Win 7-4!
Baltimore Sun recap.
Star Tribune recap.
ESPN recap and boxscore.
Eric Bedard recent performance:
137.3 IP, 4.59 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, 38.3% GB%, 7.4 K/G, 4.4 BB/G, 0.80 HR/G -- 2004
141.7 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, 40.0% GB%, 7.9 K/G, 3.6 BB/G, 0.63 HR/G -- 2005
196.3 IP, 3.76 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 48.8% GB%, 7.8 K/G, 3.1 BB/G, 0.73 HR/G -- 2006
Basically, Bedard is a stud. Not shown here, his HR/F ratio the last three years has been consistently between 8%-10%, which is solidly above average for a starting pitcher. He might be a rare pitcher who can prevent HR above and beyond his ability to simply prevent home runs.
The main thing that sticks out to me here is how many more ground balls Bedard was able to induce last year. In fact, his jump from 38.3% to 48.8% basically takes him from fly ball pitcher to ground ball pitcher, and helps add to his value.
Of minor additional interest: Bedard's BABIPs the last three years were .323 (2004), .318 (2005), and .312 (2006), respectively. In line with his improving xFIP, ERA and BB/g outcomes and rising GB pcts, I suppose. Not much suggestion here that he got unusually "lucky" last year. He's just turning into a very solid pitcher.
Right, I don't think last year was any kind of fluke. He's pretty unknown nationally, though. Playing for the recent vintage Oriole teams will do that, I suppose.
Bedard vs. Twins:
The opening sequence on ESPN was very well done. I'm not sure yet who did the voice-over, but he had a great old-timey baseball voice.
I've got ESPN NEWS! Ack!
Danny Gladden on the manager show... "You've got to be happy with the starters you have..."
Now that's a hard hitting question.
You go into the season with the startes you have, not the starters you wish you had.
Or something like that...
Just don't forget that it's a marathon, not a sprint.
The first +10 of the season, Neil.
Awesome! Did my points from last year expire? And where do I exchange them?
NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dusty Baker and Rick Sutcliffe round out a three-man booth anchored by Dave O'Brien. I don't mind O'Brien so much as a PBP guy, but Sutcliffe couldn't be a worse analyst, and if Baker's analysis is like his management, I suspect I'll be turning down the volume at some point later on in the broadcast.
Ah, the game is on channel 29 here.
Yeah, it sounded like ESPN was going to carry a bunch of games today, but that all of the games would be locally blacked out so that the local channels would get their day in the sun (or under the roof, as the case may be).
The Orioles haven't started on the road since 1977.
You guys will have to keep me updated on all the observational details. Unfortunately, I have night class so I'll be following the majority of this one on MLB Gamecast.
My first impression of the '07 season: Elijah Dukes swing the bat like it weighs as much as a Dorito. I was impressed.
What's the deal with the black arm band around Hunter's right sleeve?
Also, Dusty Baker's already got Hunter down for a Fielding Grammy.
Probably for Herb? I haven't heard.
Okay, now I found one on someone else's sleeve. I'm guessing you're right.
Strike one. The season is underway.
Steee-rike Three!
Santana with a couple Ks, Mauer with a single and Morneau with a HR. Some things never change!
No 3D pitch data for this game on Gameday. Count me as disappointed.
My first impressions are that my AL MVP pick (Sizemore) and my NL Cy Young pick (Sheets) are looking pretty good after one day. Hopefully my AL Cy Young pick will look similarly good in a few hours.
1-2-3 in the first. A nice start.
Three up, three down. For at least one half inning this season, everything feels right.
9 pitches, 8 strikes. Glad to see Santana getting after em right away.
Yeah, will he even go 100 pitches tonight? I'd guess more like 85-90 or something like that.
Solid start for Punto there.
Can we just drop the pretense and have him switch spots with Bartlett NOW???
Mauer with the first hit of the season. Of course.
Bedard was really living on the edge of the strike zone against Punto. Kind of a tough K for LNP.
Good patience, Joe.
And more importantly, Joe is batting 1.000 against lefties!
It's all downhill from here.
Nice deke by the bullpen catcher, letting that ball get past him right into the O's bullpen.
Ah, bullpen ballboy, rather.
Cuddyer gets a K, too, but that was a pretty nasty pitch at the knees. Good AB for Cuddyer.
Wow, gameday's pitch location seems totally wack for this game. That shows called strike three right down broadway, but that's certainly not what I saw. Maybe my eyes just need adjusting.
Cuddy got fooled. I was thinking good at bat, too. And then he looked at that pitch.
Hey, this is cool. Do you guys do this for every game?
New thing this year.
when we can't think of anything better to do, like, uh, teach. Or work.
So, yeah. Pretty much
you've always been invited to join our reindeer games, twayn!
I was gonna say "nice at bat, cuddy". But two backwards Ks in the inning?
He saw nine pitches, it's not like he made three awful swings and took a seat. And remember the whole "Bedard is a good pitcher" stuff at the top?
well, that's what I meant. It WAS a nice at bat. Did he just get completely fooled on the last strike?
Pretty much. It looked like he thought it was going to be out on the corner, but it broke across the middle. I thought it was pretty low in the strike zone, though gameday disagrees.
Not that the above comment was out of line by any means, but it just made me think of the time I was at a friend's house for the first Vikes preseason game of the year and on the first posession the went 3 and out on 3 incompletions at which point she says, "Jesus Christ! Why don't they RUN the damn ball once in a while!"
We mocked her mercilously.
Considering what I'm wearing, you think I'm afraid of being mocked???
There goes the perfect season for Johan.
And he was so close.
Tejada with the first hit for the Orioles, also appropriate.
And then, Johan erases him.
Rondell seems to be taking after Torii with the ridiculous "I can't see the ball in the roof" palms to the sky routine.
Am I reading that stat right? Johan's BAA for lefties last year was .254, but OVERALL it was .216?
That's...just...not...fair.
Hey! You aren't supposed to use your good pickoff move in the 2nd inning! That's against The Book, isn't it?
Jesus. Hrbek must weigh 330 pounds.
Which means he should be one of our starting pitchers!
How great! Hrbek with the call on Morneau's dinger!
Morneau does not care that Bedard is a great left-handed pitcher. Atta boy, Morneau. And Hunter wants some, too!!! WOOOO!!!
My hero!
And now the AOTF shuts up and lets his bat do the talking!
Anything you can do, I can do better.
Back to back.
I love this game.
Three cheers for clubhouse cancer!
I'll cheer every dinger! (Man, it's great to be done with spring training.)
Cirillo is wearing the Replacement level Morneau number... also, Ortiz wore it before he left and became great.
UGH! Kubel doesn't get to start? I was secretly hoping that Gardy wasn't going to actually follow through with his DH platoon. Dear Lord. I mean, obviously it's the left-handed hitters who have been having trouble today.
Holy moley--I went to get some chocolate chip cookies (goes great with Fat Tire) and boom, back to back dingers. I'll have to get cookies every inning.
or Fat Tire
Which Fat Tire are you going with this evening?
the Amber Ale
Fat Tire IS the beer. New Belgium is the brewery.
Corey Patterson, career OBP: .297
Bert to Radke: how's retirement so far? Radke: Not bad. SBG: All 45 minutes of it.
WPA for Morneau's HR: .109
WPA for Hunter's HR: .090
Check it out.
That's freaking sweet.
Solid knock for Roberts.
Oh, hey, Sutcliffe says that if Hunter doesn't get to it, no one can. Torii Hunter can do no wrong!!
Nothing like a strikeout to end the threat. Santana looks good.
Sutcliffe: "A lof of times, a bloop is followed by a blast."
Santana: "Really?"
Mmm. better.
Is Sutcliffe drunk again?
Speaking of Fat Tires....
I can't even describe the way he is pronouncing Morneau's name. It's like more-NO (the way everyone pronounced it initially), but it's like he's pronouncing the 'n' like the Spanish 'n' with a ~ over the top of it. Kind of like more-nIYO. Hey Sutt, it rhymes with porno.
Nice.
+10 Internet filters
Castillo is slumping.
You hold very strange powers, SBG.
Slumping Luis Castillo is hitting .600 now.
Mauer looked safe on a close play at first. Then again, I'm 15 miles away.
I'm 1700 miles away, so you're a whole two orders of magnitude closer than me. I thought he was out, but it was close. I always need to see the replay to be sure. I generally give the benefit of the doubt to the fielders and ump if it's close.
Sutcliffe just brought up the Prior/Mauer thing. What I want him to do know is turn to Dusty Baker and ask him how it feels to ruin the career of a number two overall draft pick.
King Felix through 6: 2 hits, 9 K, 1 BB, zero runs.
I saw him in the first two or three innings. His stuff was sick. Dave Cameron (obviously biased, but nonetheless a pretty smart guy) said in the game comments:
SBG, are you at the blogger bar thing, or is that later this week?
I'm at home folding socks. The blogger thing is on Saturday afternoon. I am taking Lucy out for her birthday in a little while.
folding socks? Dude, get a sock drawer! stuff 'em in all willy-nilly!
You're a lawyer. All your sox are either black or brown anyway, right?
Yeah, but I have the wife's to do as well.
Happy Birthday, Lucy!
Didn't know Harwell and Carneal were a broadcast team.
Man, what a team.
no doubt...
Dick and Bert interview some American Idol person. Reminds me of Bert's great interview last year with that kid. Asked him if he umm knew Paula Abdul.
I'm assuming its the girl that sang the national anthem. She was great.
Infield in strikes again. I hate that strategy. Hate, hate, hate it.
The Canadian Club.
It's Carlos Silva's bad influence.
Gamecast not working for me. I switched to MLB Gameday. Much cooler. But the infield in thing still sucked.
Hoo boy. What's this?
Shit. Call up Perkins.
What's his service time situation?
Alright, whatever. It's a one run deficit with six innings left. It's not like that's never happened before.
More quantitatively, our Win Expectancy is still about 43%, and that's for an average team.
It's Bartlett's fault. More vocal leadership!
Maybe we can move Silva to the Reds for Castro.
I'd make that trade. Assuming that Gardy would be contractually obligated to NOT play Castro. Ever.
Castro would've given an impassioned speech.
Difference maker!
+10. Quick work, Banjo.
Atta boy, Cuddyer. 17 pitches for Cuddyer in his first two at-bats.
Very nice at bat for Morneau
Nice Morneau! He hits a homer, then he just pokes it the other way for a hit.
And then Torii tries to hit a homer on the first pitch
He did hit a homer on the first pitch last time. Gotta take the bad with the good when it comes to his approach.
The sharks doing their best piranha impression here.
MVP! MVP!
Lucy and I are heading out. Mind the store.
That's the Hunter veteran presence.
RONDELL WHITE TOOK A WALK ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON!!!!!
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!
I don't believe what I just saw
Does Cirillo know the Twins Way with the bases juiced and less than 2 outs?
No HE DOES NOT. Good boy, Jeffy.
Morneau got his money's worth on that play, but what an absolutely horrible decision by Ullger there. Not. Even. Close.
Cirillo's hit was positively Redmond-esque.
let's go new guy.
bang bang.
Alright Barlett, pick up Scotty Ullger.
Injury delay??? WHAT???
Bandage on Bako's chin. Like I said, Morneau got his money's worth. He apparently went to the Torii Hunter school of baserunning.
O's have a good cut man.
Good cut by JB there, hitting it straight at Tejada.
Santana worked Roberts inner half the first time, then outer half the second time around. We'll see what he goes for here.
Looks like he worked him low in the zone for the K.
Not a good cut by Roberts.
WOW!
Rondell wants some Opening Day Web Gem action.
Safe to say he'll get it
He might even crack the Top 10 plays with that, come to think of it.
ozzie freakin' nelson!!!!!
Are you thinking of Tommy Watkins?
who was that guy and what did he do with rondell white's legs?
Only his defense.
After 5 innings for Santana: 62 pitches, 43 strikes. 4 K's, 2 BB's, 0 HR. 5.40 ERA, but 2.80 FIP.
LNP! Warning track power!
I guess warning track power is good when the opposing CF is pulled way in because they don't think you can hit it that far.
Punto totally robbed of an RBI there by the bounce over the wall.
Punto power!!!
Let's go Cuddy. We'll see if those 17 pitches gave him any ideas.
Not any good ones anyway.
Ohhh K-ddyer.
That was a brilliant pitch sequence by Bedard. Two breaking balls for strikes to get ahead of Cuddyer and then beat him with hard heat up and in.
Awesome, takes away the double play too
I'll take it, but what exactly was Bako thinking there? Morneau didn't come particularly close to making contact there.
Big night for Morneau....except on the basepaths
That looked like an awful call on Morneau at second there.
Ugh, and then Hunter hits the would-be RBI double.
If you're going to give up a HR, Tejada's the guy to give it up to in this lineup. He's a good hitter and he'll get his.
I used to hold him such high esteem...
Morneau needs to quit running on Markakis.
Wonder if SBG felt that one?
Glad they chased Bedard. He's got a real live arm.
Any thoughts on the NCAA tilt tonight? As a Big 10 grad, I have to pull for the OSU. When, if ever, have the same 2 schools met for the football and basketball championships in the same year?
Even as a Big 10 guy, I don't really want tOSU to win, but I really, really want Florida to lose. So I'm pulling for tOSU, but also for a double-forfeit.
Fair enough. I just wanna see a good game.
That, too. A well-played, close game (not always the same thing) between those two teams would definitely be interesting. Mike Conley, Jr. has grown on me, too.
Conley is gonna make a lot of money.
Ward freakin' cleaver....
Why, oh why do people throw balls back?! You just caught a home run hit by Miguel Tejada off of last year's Cy Young winner. Keep that baby!
Banjo, I like your 50's sitcom curse-substitutes.
It might be time to pull the big guy. A little bit of trouble with his location here, and 76 is probably pretty close to his pitch limit for the day.
Or he'll get the next two batters without any trouble.
It's my ode to Rochester Red Wing uber scribe Jim Mandelaro.
Is that who your avatar is tonight? Kinda looks like NYTimes food critic Mark Bittman.
Not a quality start, per se, but should be good enough for the win.
As predicted, I couldn't stand to listen to the ESPN broadcast team anymore. They've been replaced by some reggaeton. Santana always seems to pitch a little better with reggaeton in the background.
Tyny Stolen Base!
I certainly have my differences with Gardy, but he likes to get his bench players involved in the game, and that probably makes them happier. It might not count for much, but it counts for more than nothing. Using Tyner as a pinch-runner here is a reasonable use of the tools he has on hand.
Finally, some peace and quiet and time to type. I've been running around picking up kids and making dinner, but I have caught all the highlights either on TV or radio so far. At least I'm not folding socks.
Pirahnas!
I think Castillo wants to lead the league in infield hits again.
For a guy whose gait makes Mickey Rivers look like a school girl, Luis gets down the line. (sorry. I reached for that one.)
He does look weird when he runs.
ESPN with absolutely no mention of Herb Carneal, absolutely no mention of Radke's first pitch. Just typical noisy fans crap.
Just typical noisy fans crap.
Yeah, Dave O'Brien didn't prepare very well for this game. It's not a playoff game, Dave, it's not going to be that loud in there.
Ahh, that was your mug shot on Gardy's office dartboard.
Gameday: "1: missed bunt"
uh, first and third and one out, and Punto is bunting??? WTF????
Piranha feeding frenzy.
I really hope Punto keeps this up. I have absolutely no problem keeping Punto second in the order if he's getting on base and causing trouble.
I'll take it, Nicky. But you should be batting 9th.
Have I mentioned that before?
That was a tough error call on Tejada. That was a wicked hard sinking liner to his left. Not many guys catch that ball.
I agree. A lot of the time, reaching on error isn't just a matter of getting lucky, and this is one of those times.
Did Reyes lose some weight, or does he just look thin compared to Hrbek?
"I didn't know you were called 'Dennys'..."
Reyes sure seems to be getting squeezed here.
Chin beard lookin' strong.
Dobie freakin' Gillis.
I was waitin' on that one.
The phantom balk.
Thank you, deep left-center field corner. Thank you.
Hmmmm. Hunter getting accolades for making the play every CF is supposed to make. Whatever.
I was pretty optimistic about this season, and I like what I'm seeing so far. This is a team that could score a lot of runs this year.
Yeah, everyone's worried about the rotation, and it's not a team strength, but if those guys just hold the opposition to four runs or fewer, the bullpen and the lineup can take over. Every team is going to have its strengths and weaknesses.
UF 17 OSU 13 10min left in the 1st half. Conley sitting with two fouls.
Rincon looks like he's still off the juice.
Tyny DH appearance.
3rd hit for Castillo tonight.
wtf?!?
Who said that?
ESPN commentator's name withheld to protect the innocent.
Still only warning track power for Punto.
More warning track power from Punto.
Looks like a good night tonight.
This game tonight had a lot of baseball in it, SBG. A lot of baseball.
Amen. It's so much better when these things count.
The pitching wasn't quite as sharp as I would have liked ideally, given all of the guys who took the mound, but I'll take a win any way I can get it.
It is so easy to take Nathan for granted.
Gimme the keys, man!
Gimme the keys, man!
This phrase is on the verge of lexicon material. And part of a great advertising campaign.
And death is not an option: Freddie Bynum, PH, or TynyDH?
If death is not an option, I'll take comatose.
TynyDH. You've got yourself a great baserunner after the fielder's choice.
+10 Tyny points
No blown save tonight, Mr. Gleeman!
What's our magic number?
161
Uh, that was facetious, but thanks for the obvious.
Actually, 162 to clinch.
Yeah, magic numbers start at 1 above how many games there are. I know this because the Vikings never seem to get to that 17 they need to win their division.
What a great day! I handed in my master's thesis a few hours ago. I'm done with grad school as of 4:30. And the Twins get the opening day victory. All is as it should be.
Well done, young man.
sah-weet. Congratulations!
Congrats!
congrats, Kev -- you can remove the soap now.
Thanks everybody. It's been a day to remember.
231. posts. Off to cook dinner and watch basketball.
And we'll see you tomorrow night...
Just got back from the game. No mention of the fan on field - I scored him FOF - good thing there were at least 20 security cats to go collar him - he could easily outrun any five of them.
Fun crowd tonite - would'a been a cold one without that dome... Place went crazy with the back-2-back HR's; nice clutch hit for DH Cirillo.
Nice Carneal moments before the game. After the moment of silence, some one in the audience yelled "we'll miss you Herb!"
(Missed you at Maxwell's, SBG - we'll have to try to hook up again)
DVRed the game tonight rather than watching in real time... looks to me like Santana's got that early-season change location issue yet again. Wasn't horrible but sure wasn't sharp.
So cool for Morneau and Hunter to go back-to-back... the electricity in the Dome palpable... man there are so many good vibes about the team right now (let's see if the starting pitching puts a damper on that right quick)...
Hopefully I'll be able to catch tomorrow's game live for some live blogging fun.
Welcome back, brink! Look forward to your contributions during the season.