360 Degrees, Turn 1: A Look at the 2007 Twins Rotation
Posted by SBG on Sunday, April 8th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
It’s five games into the new season and that means that it’s time to take a look at our starting pitching staff in a feature I call 360 Degrees. The purpose of this feature is to chart the progress of our starting staff throughout the year. Of course, this being the first five games, this report is for the games from April 2 to April 8. The Twins had an off day on the fifth and a postponed game on the sixth.
Collectively, the staff started out with a bang. It’s a long season, of course, but the boys got off on the right foot. Of course, any time Johan Santana pitches two out of five games, you would expect the numbers to be good. However, two big question marks, Ramon Ortiz and Carlos Silva also gave the Twins surprising and effective starts. Looking back, that first start by Santana was the worst of the bunch. You won’t hear that a lot this season, I’m sure. Now, let’s look at the five starts.
| Starter | Opponent | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | HBP | ERA | WHIP | FIP | QS | BF | ROE | Def_Eff | 2B | 3B | S | SF | AVE | OBP | SLG | OPS | Game Score |
| Santana | Baltimore | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 4.03 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.647 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.292 | 0.346 | 0.583 | 0.929 | 46 |
| Bonser | Baltimore | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 4.37 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 0.800 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.136 | 0.240 | 0.318 | 0.558 | 61 |
| Ortiz | Baltimore | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2.57 | 0.86 | 2.34 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 0.727 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.192 | 0.214 | 0.308 | 0.522 | 62 |
| Silva | Chicago Sox | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 3.20 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.706 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.278 | 0.300 | 0.278 | 0.578 | 53 |
| Santana | Chicago Sox | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1.49 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0.923 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.045 | 0.160 | 0.045 | 0.205 | 81 |
A little bit about the numbers.
FIP – Field Independent Pitching. This is a calculation that attempts to quantify the pitchers contribution independent of the fielding behind him. It is calculated as follows:
FIP = 3.20 + (BB*3 + HR*13 – 2*K)/IP
The 3.20 provides a scaling factor so that FIP is a number that approximates an ERA.
Game Score. Found at ESPN.COM. Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
DefEff – Defensive Efficiency. Is the ratio of balls put into play that are converted into outs. A defensive efficiency of .700 is about average. Last year, the Twins defensive efficiency was exceedingly poor over the first couple of months and then improved drastically. Was it improved pitching (i.e. the improvement of Santana and the insertion of Liriano into the starting rotation)? Or was it the defection of the Cubanistas? Note that the defensive efficiency numbers here represent only the at bats when the starters are in the game.
Each pitcher pitched effectively. Silva’s outing was very good – however, it’s really hard to tell how good, because the cold weather on both Saturday and Sunday may have kept the offenses for both teams down (seven runs combined for the two teams over two games). It’s worth noting, though, that the White Sox hit home runs off of the Twins bullpen in each of the two games. Ortiz was fine and Booferdoodle looked good. Yeah, it was Baltimore, but hey, they took it to the Yanks (speaking of suspect pitching) this weekend.
The first winner of the 360 Degree Hot Pitcher Award, however, is Johan Santana, based upon his Sunday start. Johan struggled early, but he was untouchable over the last five innings that he pitched and ended up with his usual sparkling numbers.
Cumulatively, here’s how the starters looked.
| Trip | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | HBP | ERA | WHIP | FIP | QS | BF | ROE | Hits | Def_Eff | AVE | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1 | 31 | 21 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 2.61 | 1.00 | 3.33 | 3 | 124 | 2 | 21 | 0.750 | 0.188 | 0.266 | 0.313 | 0.579 |
We’ll take this, of course, every single time.
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Just one time thru but the word that comes to mind is "Fantabulous"... or perhaps "tremendazing"... I'm sure we're in for a rude shock sooner than later but I thought sooner was scheduled for this week. Glad to see it delayed.
I think the "Libre Garza 3" is feeling the heat. They seem pretty focused, so far, as well they should. I give it till mid-May before the ice melts in that drink.
Garza had a bit of a tough tough opener, lasting only 3 1/3 innings, allowing three runs (all unearned) and walking five in a wild one in Rochester. The first 9 runs of the game were unearned.
what? No Tommy references for Watkins getting a free game? Maybe Eyesight to the Blind? Mandalero is slipping.
I like the trend in pitcher ERAs. 6.00, 3.00, 2.57, 1.80, 0.00. At this pace, we'll be winning games 1 to negative 4. I think that is the correct use of this sort of sample, right?
Hell, we could be winning games -2 to -4.
I didn't figure this comment out right away, but it now gets a delayed +10.
The starters have a combined WHIP of 1.00. Keep that up and we'll win 130 games
Or if we can just manage to get Santana to take 40% of the starts.
Or pitch with his other arm.
Game Score. Found at ESPN.COM.
A more accurate attribution would probably be: "Game Score. A Bill James junk stat."
Note: "junk stat" was a term I believe was coined by Bill James and he's used it to describe this particular stat in the past.