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On the Grill

Posted by Banjo on Friday, June 1st, 2007 at 3:14 pm

On the Grill Oakland A’s

Minnesota Twins (27-25) v. Oakland Athletics (26-26)

after-dinner-meat-gum.jpg

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday July 29, 2005 2:00 PM ET chat session with Billy Beane.

Nathan (Chicago, IL): Have you and Joe Morgan ever set down to discuss your book?
Billy Beane: Haven't had the opportunity, and surprisingly, he only lives about a mile away from me.

Almost no in-depth discussion of the Oakland A’s can be had without at least mentioning Billy Beane, the most notorious, admired, reviled and respected of all current baseball GM’s. It was fitting as I sat down to research and write this week’s feature, intending to stay away from any Beane, that the lead paragraph on one of the main stories written by Jim Molony on the MLB web site would be anchored with a Beaneism.

“Oakland Athletics vice president and general manager Billy Beane has a theory. Beane believes it takes two months of the season to evaluate your club and another two months to fix any problems, and that leaves two months to make a run for the playoffs.”

Is it something I ate?
At 26-26 the A’s find themselves at the two-month point in the season where they need to fix what ails them in order to make their patented late-season surge. The big problem with the A’s so far has been injuries, so fixing might be more a matter of getting everyone healthy. The A’s have had 11 players on the DL, more than any of the 29 other teams, and have still managed to play .500 baseball. The A’s pitching has been outstanding, anchored by new staff ace Dan Haren, and that has largely kept them afloat, but what about all these injuries? Who is to blame – the players? The medical staff? Or is something more diabolical going on? Phillp Michaels of Baseball Toaster’s Catfish Stew Blog has an equally compelling theory.


“If luck, as Branch Rickey once suggested, is the residue of design, then it follows that bad luck is the residue of blueprints so ill-conceived they'd get you thrown out of architect school for crimes against humanity. Sure, the A's are experiencing a run of colossally bad luck when it comes to rounding up enough healthy bodies to field a team these days. But that's because the front office made a number of decisions when assembling a roster that made such a bleak End Times scenario increasingly probable.

Or to put it more plainly, Billy Beane seemed to go out of his way to load up on guys who have a knack for debilitating themselves one way or another.”

Michaels goes on to provide this chart, which borrows some of the coding from Will Carroll’s Positional Health Reports for color coding. (green for normal risk of injury, yellow for elevated, and red for high.)

Player Injury Risk Disabled in 2006
Milton Bradley Green Yes - 59 games
Justin Duchscherer Red Yes -42 games
Rich Harden Red Yes - 128 games

Dan Johnson

N/A No
Bobby Kielty Red No
Mark Kotsay Red No
Esteban Loaiza Green Yes -36 games
Mike Piazza N/A No
Chris Snelling Yes N/A, but I'm sure there's not a shade of red bright enough to convey his injury risk
Huston Street Green Yes — games17

His footnotes are also helpful in assessing what might be going on:

**Near as I can tell, Dan Johnson wasn't disabled, but he spent most of 2006 battling eye problems. I don't think that makes him injury prone, and the cause of his injury this year -- a collision during a spring training game -- is just one of those things that happens and not necessarily the sign of a player who can't stay healthy.

**Kotsay didn't go on the DL, but he only played in 31 of the A's final 51 games, owing to his achy-breaky back.

**Snelling was, of course, a Mariner in 2006. Here's the relevant portion of his BP Player comment: "It was another knee injury this time, the seventh surgery of the Aussie's career, and the fifth on his left knee."

**Like Kotsay, Street spent some non-DL downtime on the active roster in 2006; he missed 12 games between April 19 and May 1 with a strained right pectoral-minor muscle.

***So... looking at the above chart, the only 2007 DL occupants who should take anyone by surprise are Dan Johnson and Mike Piazza. (That is, if a 38-year-old ex-catcher getting injured can be considered surprising. But, since like Johnson, Piazza was knocked out by a freak happenstance of the game, it's really not accurate to say that the warning signs were there.) All the other players in that chart were either listed as high risks for injury by a man who makes his living tracking these sorts of things or had a history of spending time on the DL or both.

Hungry Like the Wolff
It should also be noted there's been a mangerial change on Oakland and a recent ownership change, which helped the A's secure a new stadium deal which will include some prretty high tech amenities. Bob Geren is the new manager, and like Beane himself Geren has been accessible to the non-traditional media as evidenced by this lenghty interview just a couple of days ago over at Atheltics Nation. Geren replaced Ken Macha.

Dating back to Art Howe's reign, it's long been rumored that Beane is heavily involved in the on-field management of the A's. After Macha was fired last season, some detail emerged about how involved beane is. Here's some of Macha's side of the story from the SF Chronicle:

Macha cited two postseason incidents involving what he perceived as a dispute with Beane.

-- According to Macha, Beane wanted Bobby Kielty to start against left-handers, as had been the case in the final weeks of the regular season. But Macha started Kotsay against Johan Santana of Minnesota and Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers of Detroit.

-- Macha said he wanted 14-game winner Dan Haren to start Game 3 against the Tigers in the American League Championship Series and be available for a possible Game 7. But Rich Harden, who was injured most of the season, was picked to start Game 3. It was Beane's call, said Macha, who went along with the decision.

Macha was fired because of what Beane described as a "disconnect on several levels," and five players -- Kotsay, Haren, Jason Kendall, Eric Chavez and Barry Zito -- made unfavorable comments about Macha in Tuesday's Chronicle. Kotsay said he felt "disrespected" that Macha seemingly questioned why he wasn't playing a road game when the team was off the day before.

Kotsay, who battled a bad back during the season, also said the A's "didn't play" for Macha and rallied among themselves, adding Macha "didn't have my back."

"Billy wanted Kielty in the postseason, and I play Kotsay, and then Kotsay comes out and says bad things about me while I basically got fired because I played him," Macha said. "It's kind of sad."

You can read the other side of the story here. It's not suprising that Beane passed over fan and player favorite Ron Washington for Geren, since Geren was actually the best-man at Beane's marriage to his second wife. (As a sidenote, I wonder what type of statistical analysis Beane uses to pick a spouse?)

Stark Raving Mad
When a player gets a big contract it's usually open season when fans think the player is not performing to that contract. In 2004 Eric Chavez agreed to the richest contract in Oakland Athletic history. Today the debate rages on as to whether the A's kept the right talent in Chavez or if he is just not appreciated by the fans. With a body which seems to be betraying him, and offensive numbers which are below what the analysts predicted, Chavez is off to a slow start -- AVG .228 | HR 6 | RBI 24 | OBP .288 | SLG .396 and has been recently told by the club not to talk to the media about his injuries. Local columnist Dave Del Grande even think he deserves a spot on Jayson Stark's most Overrated list. For that reason. this week, we'll officially put Eric Chavez "On the Grill."

One Last Note
In trying to dig up some juicy dirt on Billy Beane, I did find this vintage 2004 interview with the Pioneer Press in which Beane discusses the music scene in San Diego of his youth and also which lists his top five albumbs of all-time:

BILLY BEANE'S FAVORITE ALBUMS
The Ramones, "Anthology"
Oasis, "What's the Story Morning Glory?"
The Who, "Tommy"
The Clash, "London Calling"
The English Beat, "Special Beat Service"
The Sex Pistols, "Never Mind the Bollocks"

The Slow Burn or Sizzling Slowey?
My good friend and business partner, a former Bay Area resident, told me if anything, great California cuisine is defined by its immigrants. So for this week's installment of "On the Grill" we take our inspiration from Oakland's International Blvd - home to some of the best mexican food on the planet. While I cannot divulge the secrets of the local taco trucks, I can share a classic Fajita recipe, which is perfect for your backyard grill or as was discussed earlier in the week, in a pinch, using cast iron cookware indoors. This recipe came from Cook's Illustrated, which, if you don't know, is the gold-standard of cooking magazines.

For the read meat lovers in the crowd, this recipe calls for Flank Steak which is a long, thin and fibrous, cut of boneless beef comes from the animal's lower hindquarters. It's usually tenderized by marinating, then broiled or grilled whole. This recipe calls for the steak to be doused with the lime juice and salt an pepper and cooked. I've also saturated the steak with lime juice and salt and pepper and let it marinate for as little as 30 minutes and as long as a couple hours. The nice thing about fajitas is, that much of the prep can be done ahead of time (like the salsa and guacamole) and everything else comes together really fast and are really quite beautiful.

Crowd Pleasing Fajitas
The ingredients go on the grill in order as the fire dies down: steak over a hot fire, vegetables over a medium fire, and tortillas around the edge of the medium to low fire just to warm them.
INGREDIENTS

Chunky Guacamole
3 medium avocados
2 tablespoons minced onion
1 medium clove garlic , minced
1 small jalapeño chile , minced (1 to 1 1/2 teaspoons)
1/4 cup minced fresh cilantro leaves
1/4 teaspoon table salt
1/2 teaspoon ground cumin (optional)
2 tablespoons lime juice

Classic Red Table Salsa
3 large vine-ripened tomatoes (about 2 pounds), diced small
1/2 cup tomato juice
1 small chipotle chile , minced (about 2 tablespoons)
1 medium red onion , diced small
1 medium clove garlic , minced
1/2 cup chopped fresh cilantro leaves
1/2 cup lime juice from 4 medium limes
Table salt

Fajitas
1 flank steak (about 2 1/2 pounds)
1/4 cup lime juice from 2 medium limes
Table salt and ground black pepper
1 very large onion , peeled and cut into half-inch slices
2 very large red bell peppers or green bell peppers, cored, seeded, and cut into large wedges
16 plain flour tortillas (10-inch)

Chunky Guacamole
1. Halve one avocado, remove pit, and scoop flesh into medium bowl. Mash flesh lightly with onion, garlic, jalapeño, cilantro, salt, and cumin (if using) with tines of a fork until just combined.
2. Halve and pit remaining two avocados, and prepare. Gently scoop out avocado into bowl with mashed avocado mixture.
3. Sprinkle lime juice over diced avocado and mix entire contents of bowl lightly with fork until combined but still chunky. Adjust seasoning with salt, if necessary, and serve. (Can be covered with plastic wrap, pressed directly onto surface of mixture, and refrigerated up to one day. Return guacamole to room temperature, removing plastic wrap at the last moment, before serving).

Classic Red Table Salsa
4. Mix all ingredients, including salt to taste, in medium bowl. Cover and refrigerate to blend flavors, at least 1 hour or up to 5 days.

Fajitas
5. For Charcoal Grill:Ignite about 7 quarts charcoal and burn until coals are completely covered with thin coating of light-gray ash, 20 to 30 minutes. Pile coals on one-half of grill bottom, position grill rack and heat until very hot (you can hold your hand 5 inches above grill surface for 2 seconds).
6. Generously sprinkle both sides of steak with lime juice, salt and pepper; place directly over coals or on gas grill grate and grill until well-seared and dark brown on first side, 5 to 7 minutes (4 to 6 minutes, covered, on gas grill). Flip steak using tongs; continue grilling on second side until interior of meat is slightly less done than you want it to be when you eat it, 2 to 5 minutes (3 to 5 minutes on gas grill) more for medium-rare (depending on heat of fire and thickness of steak). Transfer meat to cutting board; cover loosely with foil, and let rest 5 to 10 minutes. Slice very thin, on bias against the grain; adjust seasoning with additional salt and pepper.

7. When charcoal fire has died down to medium (you can hold your hand 5 inches above grill surface for 4 seconds), grill onions and peppers, turning occasionally, until onions are lightly charred, about 6 minutes, and peppers are streaked with dark grill marks, about 10 minutes. Remove onions and peppers from grill and cut peppers into long, thin strips; set aside. Arrange tortillas around edge of grill; heat until just warmed, about 20 seconds per side. (Do not dry out tortillas or they get brittle; wrap tortillas in towel to keep warm.) Remove to platter; set aside.

Serving Fajitas
8. Arrange sliced meat and vegetables on large platter; serve immediately, with tortillas, salsa, and guacamole passed separately

My beer of choice would be Pacifico - there might be better Mexican beer, but these seem to go down quite nicely. Enjoy the weekend.

Tags:

This entry was posted by Banjo on Friday, June 1st, 2007 at 3:14 pm and is filed under Featured Articles, On The Grill. It is one of 66 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post. Why?

33 LTEs

SBG
SBG replied on June 1st, 2007 at 3:44 pm

As a sidenote, I wonder what type of statistical analysis Beane uses to pick a spouse?

I don't know if there's statistical analysis involved, ahem, but I'll submit that he might use the following philosophy:

Take two months of the season a couple of years to evaluate your clubspouse and another two monthscouple of years to fix any problems or find a new one, and that leaves two monthshowever much time is left to make a run for the playoffsenjoy your life

 
SBG
SBG replied on June 1st, 2007 at 3:46 pm

Btw: Excellent post again.

Banjo
Banjo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 5:39 pm

Thanks. I figure it's only a matter of time until someone says I’m channeling my inner-Punto, or as Frightwig might write, that I’m “regressing to the mean.”

frightwig
frightwig replied on June 1st, 2007 at 6:14 pm

I would never compare you to Nick Punto, Banjo. The WGOM doesn't carry any dead weight.

 
 
 
Banjo
Banjo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 3:48 pm

That is rich! (and frankly, probably spot on)..

 
ubelmann
ubelmann replied on June 1st, 2007 at 4:46 pm

I don't think Beane was necessarily wrong to build a team with so much up in the air health-wise. I'm sure if he was asked point blank right now, he'd say that he knew this was a possibility given the players he went into the season with.

It's a side effect of getting the Toasty O's instead of the Cheerios. The Toasty O's are much cheaper than the Cheerios, and most of the time they are a close substitute. Every now and then, though, you get a stale box that is worthless. It's the price of going with the generic substitute. As long as you can make it a week without cereal, though, then you buy your next box of Toasty O's and it's probably fine again.

So Beane got a couple of stale boxes of Toasty O's. I'm sure he'd rather they weren't stale, but the A's seem to be weathering the storm, and when their Toasty O's aren't stale anymore, they'll be eating like kings. (Or something like that.)

SDfan
SDfan replied on June 1st, 2007 at 4:56 pm

That is also the perspective of one of the A's blogs I read today - the current undervalued commodity in baseball is the oft-injured. Just as OBP was undervalued 10 years ago, excessive brittleness is today. I'll admit that the thought hadn't even occurred to me, but I suppose it makes some sense. The downside is of course if all that brittleness manifests itself simultaneously. However, the A's are at .500 even with all those injuries, which might be good enough if they can mount another of their customary second-half surges.

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on June 1st, 2007 at 5:36 pm

I think it's important to note that this strategy kind of hinges on Billy's ability to actually have replacement level players around. He seems to be the best in the business at getting replacement level players at replacement level costs. If you can't do that, you probably shouldn't aim for a frail roster.

But once you have the replacement level backups, it all starts to make sense. Don't pay $3M for a full season of Ramon Ortiz when you can pay minimum for a replacement level guy and $2.5M for a guy who won't give you many innings, but will be above replacement level when he is pitching.

 
 
 
Banjo
Banjo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 4:59 pm

Yes, it's no different than the Twins with RonDL. It's a calculated risk. It turns out that they (The A's) were able to fill some of the offensive and pitching gaps with some shrewd moves and some luck. I belive the beanism is also very close to something I've heard Tom Kelly say a few hundred times. It helps to pitch well, even if your offense isn't very robust.

ubelmann
ubelmann replied on June 1st, 2007 at 5:43 pm

Tom Kelly wasn't a perfect manager, but he mixed in some pretty good quotes during his tenure.

 
 
themoff02
themoff02 replied on June 1st, 2007 at 5:45 pm

On an actual note: Besides the injuries, the A's have been the unluckiest team in baseball thus far. They have scored 30 more runs than they have allowed but are only at .500. Their Pythagorean predicts them to have three more wins than they do. I know it is still relatively early and that games are played differently in a blowout but the A's are a very dangerous team right now. There will probably be a five way race for three spots between the Twins, Tigers, Indians, A's and Angels at the end of the season. I can't wait to see what happens once both the Twins and A's are, relatively, healthy. Should be a great rest of the season.

On a glib note: I don't need no stinking computers telling me whether I want a hot dog and how much I want to pay for a hot dog. I can tell when I see a hot dog whether I want it and I will gladly pay $20 for a hot dog with a nice sheen and great looking bun. There isn't such a thing as "value" when it comes to hot dogs. All beef dogs are overrated and only statheads/nerds! would like them. They lack the mystique and honor of pig intestines. Joe Morgan probably hates paying for cheaper, healthier hot dogs. Just sayin'.

brianS
brianS replied on June 1st, 2007 at 5:53 pm

communist.

for mainstream franks, all-beef 'dogs are a clearly superior product. Grilled is best, but I'll accept chicago-style if you give me extra sport peppers.

what, are you one of those wackos who thinks chicken dogs and tofu dogs are fit for human consumption?

Ban this troll, SBG!!!! He could ruin everything!

New Britain Bo
New Britain Bo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 7:00 pm

Was over at he fish counter at Whole Foods in West Hartford and saw Salmon Franks. Haven't tried them yet.

brianS
brianS replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:05 pm

Any relation to Jerome Frank? Bubba Franks?

E-6
E-6 replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:18 pm

Did you mean Frank Salmon?

(Scored a beautiful cast-iron skillet at a garage sale today. London broil thawing in fridge. Saturday night fajitas, baby.)

Banjo
Banjo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:22 pm

Sweet.

(LTEs wont nest below this level)
 
New Britain Bo
New Britain Bo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:28 pm

Frank Salmon. Me likey. (do View, Reload).

(LTEs wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
 
themoff02
themoff02 replied on June 1st, 2007 at 5:55 pm

Upon looking at the stats again I realized the Yankee's are actually the unluckiest team in the league according to the Pythagorean W-L. I wouldn't count them out of the Wild Card either. Guess we need to put a collection together for a great time at the Vu the next time A-Rod comes into town. (Rim shot heard somewhere in the background)

 
Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on June 2nd, 2007 at 8:49 am

Hot dogs are just brat wannabes. Accept no substitutes.

 
 
brianS
brianS replied on June 1st, 2007 at 6:19 pm

The Onion with its finger on the pulse of public opinion.

 
frightwig
frightwig replied on June 1st, 2007 at 6:21 pm

Even when Ken Macha was hired to replace Art Howe, a lot of people believed that he was just a pliable figurehead to carry out Billy Beane's orders. What a shock that the players didn't respect him!

Banjo
Banjo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 7:03 pm

I can understand the desire to have one of the small number of managing jobs, but it seems like working for Beane is akin to professional suicide. If the team succeeds under your reign, you won't get the credit you might deserve, and if you are at all competent, you'll have Beane in your grill all day long, keeping you from actually doing your job. In this scenario, you lose all power over the employees/players because everyone knows the buck doesn't stop with you -dooming you to ultimate failure. I do feel some empathy for Macha and a little bit of disdain for the players who were quick to throw him under the bus.

 
themoff02
themoff02 replied on June 1st, 2007 at 7:47 pm

I will preface this by saying that I am a believer in the "Managers don't mean much in the grand scheme of things" theory but I don't think Beane was at fault at all for firing either Howe or Macha.

While Lewis did have an incentive to make Beane look good in "Moneyball," the anecdotes and stories about Howe made him see incompetent. I can't blame Beane for being mad at Howe for bunting and ordering steals. Mountains of empirical evidence has shown they are generally self-defeating tactics and should only be pursued in certain scenarios. Beane is just as responsible for the team's success, and in the position of authority, and if a subordinate of his keeps contradicting orders that are empirically proven to be the best decision for the organization, he should be fired. Plus the disaster that was the Mets reinforced Beane's wisdom concerning releasing Howe.

Ken Macha just seemed like a jerk and most interviews from the players made it seem like he was a terrible manager. This FJM post encapsulated why he was fired better than anything else I have seen. http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2006/10/i-dont-see-any-problem-with-this.html

frightwig
frightwig replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:41 pm

Certainly, the GM should want a field manager who buys into the organizational philosophy, but any kind of organization with a chain of command tends to suffer when the top boss can't delegate authority. Beane should hire a smart manager who shares his beliefs, and then trust him to work with the players, make game decisions, and do his job. If Ken Macha never shared Beane's general views on how to run the team, and he didn't have good communications skills, why was he offered the job in the first place? Macha was the A's bench coach under Howe, wasn't he? Macha's views and personality shouldn't have been a surprise to Beane.

Rhubarb_Runner
Rhubarb_Runner replied on June 2nd, 2007 at 9:18 am

My thoughts exactly, fw. I think if Beane had an intelligent manager who thought similarly to Beane, then the GM would stay hands off and let his manager get the job done. I think the catch-22 here is that this type of manager may not be as well liked by the players as a Gardenhire might be -- if you were told that you're sitting today based on some esoteric stats, how would you feel? Or if you were a speed demon and never got the green light? Maybe I'm short-changing the players today by applying simplistic Joe Morgan thought here.

brianS
brianS replied on June 2nd, 2007 at 11:19 am

if Beane had an intelligent manager who thought similarly to Beane

is that two separate things in Billy's mind?

 
ubelmann
ubelmann replied on June 2nd, 2007 at 2:02 pm

if you were told that you’re sitting today based on some esoteric stats, how would you feel?

Earl Weaver made it work. He famously kept track of platoon splits on note cards and used matchup data that he kept to motivate the moves he made.

 
ubelmann
ubelmann replied on June 2nd, 2007 at 2:10 pm

Or if you were a speed demon and never got the green light?

I think that Beane would be fine with giving good base stealers the green light. If you've got a bunch of Giambi's around, you don't have many players to give the green light. For a while early in Beane's tenure, when OBP was undervalued (which it isn't anymore), speed was at least somewhat overvalued. So he didn't have many of those guys, and that made stealing an even less desirable strategy.

(And if you look at, say, Miguel Tejada, he had more SB attempts in his last three years in Oakland than he had in his first three years in Baltimore.)

 
 
 
 
 
New Britain Bo
New Britain Bo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:06 pm

Yanquis kicking it up a notch in the 4th (6-3). Wakefield just tossed another BB. Francona tucked in his oversized shirt and headed to th' mound...

 
New Britain Bo
New Britain Bo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:11 pm

NESN: Sny-dah loahds the bases.

 
Banjo
Banjo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:12 pm

I can't speak for the Howe situation. I read Moneyball but it was years ago and I barely remember anything but the overall gist and a few names. And I don't know without if I could, without being a more careful observer of the A's and Macha, make any type of legitimate judgement of what happened with Macha - but there are two sides to every story.

The GM has the right to set organizational strategy - but in my opinion the level of micromanaging portrayed here is far too intense.

themoff02
themoff02 replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:37 pm

Beane may be much more forceful in his directions and restrictive of the autonomy of his head coaches than other GM's but Macha had to know what the situation was going to be like given he was the bench coach before Howe. I don't go into Red Lobster and get mad when they don't offer Chicken Parmesean. Well, I only did that once.

 
 
New Britain Bo
New Britain Bo replied on June 1st, 2007 at 8:13 pm

Bases clearing double by Posada. 9-3. Good night, Irene.

 

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