Slowey/Radke Revisited
Posted by ubelmann on Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” -- Tolstoy
3.2 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 2.11 HR/9, 17 IP -- Kevin Slowey, rookie, age 23
3.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.59 HR/9, 181 IP -- Brad Radke, rookie, age 22
Yesterday in the pre-game, I said I want to see Slowey start missing more bats. That's still true. However, it turns out that I might have to wait a while before Slowey actually starts missing bats. After all, Radke had 5.4 K/9 over his career, which is perfectly acceptable for a pitcher who can limit walks, and is a pretty big step up from 3.7 K/9.
I would need to do more research to see if Radke's development was historically unique (it sure seems weird to me), but this just serves to remind me that sometimes "small sample size" can mean 180+ innings.
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If you want to talk about actually missing bats, baseball-reference.com (this site is the reason the internet was created) has a fantastic new feature with pitch data. As a rookie, 87% of the pitches that Radke threw and were swung at were hit (fouled or put in play). (League average: 80%). After that rookie season, his percentage dropped to pretty much 81% for the rest of his career until the end, when he was hurt and it spiked up again.
So far, 89% of the pitches that Slowey has thrown and have been swung at were hit. Of course, it's early, so comparisons are tough to make (I think I made that point earlier).
As for your question, is Radke's development abnormal? I don't know.
It's awful early. Let the guy relax a little, get the movement on his pitches, and learn how to pitch to these big leaguers. He'll be fine. So far the HRs have been solos, and everyone knows how Bert feels about those. And they haven't done Santana in this year.
It's nice to have a guy that is going to throw strikes and keep the game moving.
Homeruns haven't done Santana in this year? Apparently you missed this: http://fannation.com/blogs/post/20109 (sorry, I can't figure out how to do clever links yet)
Santana is only 6-6 and he sucks now. He already lost the Cy young. They should probably just trade him, as he's just an average pitcher now.
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Santana has given up HRs on 14.0 pct of fly balls so far this year (13 HRs in 13 starts). He has allowed a line of 228/283/411 so far. 12 have been solo shots.
By comparison, through the first half of 2006 (19 starts) his line was 221/261/368 with 14 HRs allowed, 6 solo. I don't have a HR/F ratio split. But given that his SLGA in April was 429 and in May 411, I'd hazard to guess that he's right in line with historical performance levels this year. The Cy Santana Award is still well within reach.
You could counter that given the league-wide drop in offense, he's off his feed a bit. That would be fair. but he's not off all that much.
although, I should add "Nice blog" to your comments. Good work, New Guy. Excellent snark at the end.
Yeah, the 12-out-of-14 is what Moss was alluding to. He had avoided the devastating multi-run HR until the other day.