Johan Santana, All-Star Game Starter
June 21st, 2007 by ubelmann
I sift through a lot of numbers around here, but I don't have many numbers to put on the table today. Instead, I have a simple question and a simple answer to that question.
Question: Who is the best pitcher in baseball?
Answer: Johan Santana
Santana has not only had brilliant rate statistics, but he's been a 200+ inning workhorse with remarkable consistency. Santana's ERA's from 2003 to 2007? 3.07, 2.61, 2.87, 2.77, 2.91. Sometimes ERA lies. Taking a look at Santana's full record, though, you'll see that ERA is not misleading us. Santana's been the best pitcher in baseball since 2004. He's won two of the last three AL Cy Young Awards, and on merit he deserved to win all three of them.
If you want some flavor-of-the month, hot-handed guy who had the best 16-17 starts of his life, go ahead, pick someone inferior to start the All-Star Game. If you want the very best pitcher around, the créme de la créme, a star amongst stars, then you want Johan Santana to start the All-Star Game. You do want the best, don't you?
This entry was posted by ubelmann on Thursday, June 21st, 2007 at 12:30 pm and is filed under Guest Writers, MLB, Minnesota Twins, ubelmann. It is one of 640 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.
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drake33 replied on June 21, 2007 at 12:45:27 pm
I was hoping for a "what are you hearing" post, but a nice little blurb about the Twins outfield defense (with Lew Ford I'm assuming)
…man, the Twins outfield defense is incredible…it feels like there are four guys out there, actually…
http://www.metsblog.com/blog/_archives/2007/6/20/3036803.html
SDfan replied on June 21, 2007 at 1:22:36 pm
Ok - I'm always bashing on ESPN, so when they do something right, I have to give them props.
FINALLY - an article from a mainstream source (no, sadly, BP isn't yet mainstream) pointing out that win/loss record is a dreadful way to evaluate a pitcher. Case in point - Mr. Santana, the headliner of the article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2910803
Nick N. replied on June 21, 2007 at 1:34:19 pm
Dan Haren will be the AL starter in the All-Star Game. In fairness, he's having a pretty phenomenal year, and it's not exactly like he came out of nowhere.
SDfan, Jayson Stark is a great baseball mind. By far ESPN.com's best baseball writer.
Rhubarb_Runner replied on June 21, 2007 at 1:40:10 pm
Stark is good; I prefer Neyer.
Haren has been great. I've always admired Halliday a lot, and he too has been consitently good for as long as Santana, I believe. Not as good, but if he were #1 starter on my team (and stayed healthy), I would take that.
Beau replied on June 21, 2007 at 3:21:40 pm
Not that anybody new to ESPN.com would know that, since nearly all of Neyer's articles are behind the money wall
CarterHayes replied on June 21, 2007 at 5:16:28 pm
I don't know what Neyer's contract situation is, but I really wish he'd get out from behind the firewall and go independent. Or even to BP, though I don't have a subscription there either.
brianS replied on June 21, 2007 at 4:25:46 pm
Haren has been ridiculous. LD pct is down (14.3, vs 20.4 and 19.0 the last two years), HR/F ratio is way down (7.5 pct, vs 14.9 and 14.3). LOB pct is up (81.7 vs. 72.5 and 72.2). DER is up (.786 vs .713 and .711). Ks up only very slightly (7.2/9 vs 6.76 and 7.10). SLGA is waaay down, per the HR/F ratio (.298 vs .407 and .428).
I agree that he's probably the AL starter. But he's having unsustainable success. No way he keeps his SLGA down that far for much longer. Opponents are hitting 187/238/298 with a .215 BABIP. Last year: 258/301/428 and .290.
But look at his game log: In his 16 starts, he's gone against KC twice (13th in the AL in offense), Baltimore twice (12th), Tampa twice (8th), the Giants twice (15th in the NL), Texas (7th in the AL), STL (11th in the NL) and Cincy (6th in the NL) once each. That's a lot of starts against bad offensive teams.
So he has benefited a bit from fortuitous scheduling.
spycake replied on June 21, 2007 at 5:14:34 pm
Hey, he missed the Twins...