2007 Game 79: Minnesota Twins at Motown Monsters
Posted by ubelmann on Saturday, June 30th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
Kevin Slowey vs. Andrew Miller
I'm not too disappointed with Slowey at this point. The statistical projections had him at about 6 K/G and 1.5 BB/G. So far, he's at 4.6 K/G and 1.8 BB/G. Considering the sample size, that's not too far off. He's had a home run problem, and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, he's going to give up HR, but his 20.7% HR/F rate will probably go down. If it was a more league average 11% HR/F, then he'd be at about 1.46 HR/G, which isn't far off from his projected rate of roughly 1.3 HR/G. Considering that it's a grand total of 5 starts, his major league performance hasn't done anything to change my opinion of how successful he'll be in the long run.
Miller's probably a better pitcher than his 5.22 xFIP would suggest. He's been getting a reasonable number of ground balls (a slightly above average 45% GB%), but his 4 BB/G is pretty high, so some patience is probably in order today. Like Verlander, he has moved through the minors quickly and his "stuff" is better than his peripherals. It wouldn't be surprising to see his strikeout and walk rate improve as time goes on.
Programming note: This game is scheduled as one of FOX's "Game of the Week" games, so if you are outside Twins territory, you may or may not be able to see the game on TV.
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Nick Punto's YTD VORP at the near halfway point: -8.7. Can he get to -20?
Eh, he's not going to hit .212 for the rest of the season. PrOPS has Punto at a .255 average given his balls-in-play this season, his PECOTA preseason projection had him at a .259 average, and he's a career .251 hitter. To me, it looks like he's had some poor luck so far this season.
Bad luck plus bad batter equals, well, bad.
Yup. It just doesn't mean that he can't have some better luck going forward.
Nice to have a break from Dick & Bert
Kubel not in the lineup today. Sigh.
With Sheffield out, Gardy must have thought he needed to even up the sides.
3 GB in the first inning. Miller had some ridiculous GB rates in the minors.
Could Craig Monroe announce that lineup any more slowly? I'm thinking no.
Time for a double-play.
Girardi is really going to town on Slowey's none on/runners on splits. I'm thinking that those don't have a whole lot of predictive value at this point.
One run on two hits and a walk in the first inning. No extra-base hits against Slowey, and not much good contact against him, either.
good baserunning by Cuddles
Triple by Cuddyer to lead off the inning. Nice.
And the Twins' best DH comes through with the RBI single.
Worst. Turn. Ever. E-4. Maybe the official scorekeeper can't assume the DP, but I sure can.
Worst. Throw. Ever. How far off was that throw by Pudge? 10 feet? Jeff Cirillo just stole on Pudge and made it pretty easily. That's 29 SB and just 9 CS for Rodriguez this year. He's certainly not the best catcher in the AL right now.
Great play by Punto to get Monroe there.
This outfield is huge
Castillo with an automatic double? It got out to that corner pretty quickly.
'twas a good double.
Was Girardi's "Andrew Miller has only faced NL teams" an underhanded jab at the Twins or was it just me?
Bartlett with the running-it-out double on a pretty sharp line drive to left.
why stretch it to a double when you can just steal on the next pitch?
Soft liner falls in front of Hunter to start the inning.
Nice 6-4-3 for the first two outs of the inning. The infield dirt looks awfully soft.
I think that Girardi may want Bartlett to be Jeter's replacement when he ends up managing the Yanquis.
He seems to be a lot more positive on Bart than Twins management has been typically.
Punto's year has been one long slump. To call him out on one little 0 for 10 stretch is unfair.
What is the Twins' total stealing success rate? 95%? Seems no one ever gets caught stealing...
It was 85% going into today's game, higher now that Cirillo and Bartlett got steals. The Phils have the best percentage at 86% and the Red Sox are third with 83% (but have many fewer attempts.) I would have to give the Mets the title for "best base stealers" because their 82% rate is very good, but they have about 20 more successes than the Twins.
Cuddy go Boom!
Cuddly Homer!
That was an awesome change for strike two on Casey.
Granderson and Hunter have seemed pretty confused out in the field today. Must be a tough backdrop today.
Good play by Punto for the third out of the inning. Not as good as his earlier play, but still pretty nice. Another solo HR against Slowey that inning, but limiting the Tigers two runs through five innings is mighty nice.
Girardi has talked a lot about Andrew Miller needing to "learn how to pitch." To me, I guess it just seemed like he needs to improve the control on his off-speed pitches, which are generally pretty nasty, but not effective if he can't throw them for strikes. I guess I always thought of the "learn how to pitch" phrase applying to pitchers who don't understand which pitches/locations to throw in certain situations, but I guess maybe it can also apply to pitchers who need to learn to control their pitches better, too.
My eyes deceive me! Lew Ford HR??
Kubel cries
Yeah, not only did Ford get the dinger, but Cirillo (who can take DH PA away from him) also got a hit there.
I like the direction this game is going.
Alright, I've gotta get going...let's hold this lead, eh?
Pudge deposits can o' Neshak over the left field wall.
Joe polishes the win for the Rookie. The locals now 5 games over .500.
*tumbleweeds blow across the WGOM*
*tumbleweeds blow across the WGOM*
Was it something I said?
Half-baked crap: ESPN headline "Twins Nip Tigers". (on the home page)
8-5 is "nipping" in football. Not in baseball, last time I checked.
Lucy, BabySBG and I were at the blogger's get together. Pictures ensue.
BTW, re: "programming note".
Apparently the Sacramento area is Mets territory. We got Mets/Phillies instead of the "A" game. That about ruined my workout (post-The Boy's swim meet, pre- smoking the pork butt for pulled pork). I'm still working out my issues. First, with a Sac Brewing Co.' IPA, next with one of those pseudo-Coors (Blue Moon) honey wheat's. For non-union beer, it is pretty good.
I guess being in the Giants/A's joint territory, they could reasonably think that there are more NL (Giants) fans than AL fans, so Mets/Phillies might play better. Thankfully in Seattle, they chose the 'A' game, which really should've been a no-brainer since the other two games were NL.
bottom of 3 in [Place Phone Company Name Here] Park, Giants lead 2-1 and Bonds coming up third in the inning.
FWIW, Bonds walked in the third. Later in the game he hit a bomb that didn't quite leave the yard. Eric Byrnes got a piece of it and it bounced on the top of the wall once or twice before coming back onto the field of play for a double.
Bonds had to settle for a 1-1 night with 3 walks, 2 runs and an RBI. That guy sucks. No way he belongs in the All-Star game. He's only hitting 302/513/599 (compared to career line of 299/444/608). Stick a fork in him, he's DUN!!!
I see a telling drop in his SLG over the career total.
"Clear" evidence of PEDs in his past.
Chad Gaudin and Rich Harden (2 innings) combine to one-hit the Yankees. Has George's head exploded yet?