Scott Baker vs. Jeremy Bonderman
Baker's an innings eater, and Bonderman's a top-of-the-rotation guy. The Twins will have an uphill battle tonight, but (as with every game against the Tigers and Indians) could really use a win here.
Where do the Twins stand, anyway? coolstandings.com has them at 22% to make the playoffs, and Baseball Prospectus has them at 17% to make the playoffs (according to the PECOTA-regressed report, which I prefer.) Just two days ago, coolstandings had the Twins at 12% and BP had the Twins at 12%, so these last two wins have indeed been big for the Twins.
The main obstacle to the playoffs would seem to be that the Tigers, A's, and Yankees would all seem to be much better than the Twins, judging by run differential. Trying to be objective about it, it's difficult for me to look at the Twins and the Tigers and consider the Twins the better team.
The one thing the Twins do have on their side is star power. If their studs get hot, and get hot on the right days, they could still make a strong push for the playoffs. Overall, though, I think the ~10-20% estimates have it right. The Twins have a realistic chance to make the playoffs, but they probably won't. Of course, they still figure to be a somewhat above .500 team, so it could be a fun ride even if they don't make the playoffs.
Programming note: Twins-Tigers on the big stage again today--ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. Since the A's are not involved, look for Joe Morgan to be somewhat more insightful than usual. I'll put the over/under on Moneyball references at 0.5, and I will put the over/under at 1.5 for "number of times Jon Miller points out that Joe Morgan is a technophobe."
Twins offense on Sunday Night in 2007 - .500/.566/.886
We got nothing to worry about.
This morning I decided to look at 2006 vs 2007 after 79 games.
I was a bit surprised in that in 2007 we have 2 less wins, yet are 4.5 games closer to 1st place.
Not sure what to expect the rest of the way, yet much more comfortable with current position, than last year at this time.
Regards,
Not as big a hill to climb, but then again, the Tigs probably won't collapse like they did last year.
I'm pretty excited to have this as the ESPN game of the week. They play it on ESPN Latin America, so I finally get to watch a game down here. Plus, I get to watch it in Spanish and not hear Joe Morgan!
Soy Joe Morgan, perra. ¿Cuál es todo este absurdo de “Moneyball�
Tyner is our DH on Sunday Night Baseball. How embarassing.
At least it's not Tyner over Kubel. That would have been a hide the knives moment.
Jon Miller is full of crap. First he says something to the affect that the Twins don't have a lot of speed, then he mentions the Twins in the same breath as the Tigers when he talks about teams that hit HRs.
must have gotten his memos mixed up.
I like Miller. Smooth voice, usually doesn't talk too much.
I'd sure like to see Morneau's swing again.
Baker is looking good, and
HooverBartlett has been hot. Now if we can get some runs in...How about Hargrove resigning. Time to head over to the USS Mariner.
yeah, that's weird. they're 12 games over .500, too
It's pretty weird and doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Honestly, Hargrove sounds kind of depressed.
Hey, Baker's off to a good start.
So has
Jeremy, uh, Jeremy Bonderman.Fifteen triples for Granderson. Wow.
He plays in the perfect park to hit triples, he's a good hitter, and he gets to hit leadoff pretty often for a good offense. That's a recipe for lots of triples.
Doesn't hurt to have that putt-putt cut out in right field. But you've got to hit well enough to get the bounce.
I'm liking what I'm seeing from Baker today.
4 shutout innings on 39 pitches against Detroit. He really doesn't want to go back to AAA.
Baker nicely gets out of the no-outs runner on third -- he's got to be the best jr. high pitcher in the bigs right now!
eharwell.com is not working for me.
(wondering how much the 4CD set is).
I would probably pay $25/disc for a Vin Scully set.
In my imagination where I'm an avant-garge composer, I'm doing a full album based on one ballgame.
I'll get people to record the radio broadcasts, the tv broadcasts, and actually go to the game and record the sounds of it.
Then I work it all together as if I'm a baseball-fan Tim Hecker. I think it will have to be a Twins/ChiSox game to get Dazzle and Bert and Hawk. Also, the Twins fans booing at AJ.
Huh. Light Rail is deliverin' the goods again tonight.
Yeah, after a few rocky starts, he seems to have command (and isn't leaving the ball up).
The triple pitch was up, but I'm not going to harp on that like certain Twins broadcasters might. I'm seeing too much good to make that one pitch a focus.
Yeah, we gotta get the mainstream media to pick up on Scotty "Light Rail" Baker. Like Gleeman. That's just too great a moniker to only be used in WGOM.
Where did it come from? Am I missing something obvious?
Yes. You haven't "been around long enough"
think "Big Train" and go for a diminutive.
Who came up with that? Was it E-6?? I think so.
It was me, with the assist to Twayn. He mentioned Walter Johnson in Baker's last start.
And realize that Minneapolis has a Light Rail system.
is it in the Lexicon yet, SBG? Should be. Looks like he'll be around for a few months at least.
You can't have a light rail "system" when it's only one line from downtown to the airport.
Hundreds of thousands of Vegas go-ers have "systems" with even less.
who's the avatar, FW? Looks soooo familiar, but I can't quite put my finger on 'em.
Is the new picture showing up? I still see the Twins logo on my screen, and I wondered what I was doing wrong.
The picture is of Sen. Norm Coleman when he was a dope-smoking hippie in 1969.
I was thinking it was Sam Shepard when he dated Patti Smith around the same time frame. Come back to the five and dime (bag), Norm.
This is close.
You hit me on a semantic point, but I'll just accept it because of the cool new avatar.
From the great minds of WGOM. Play on Walter "Big Train" Johnson
You can't stop Magglio, you can only hope to contain him.
Doggonit, I keep posting in the wrong places.
Light Rail, On-time Machine. What's that, 50 pitches through 5?
Wow. What a catch by Granderson.
Hoping we get to the Tigers 'pen soon.
whereas, do Tigers' fans hope to get Baker to sit down in order to get to OUR bullpen? Probably not.
56 pitches through 6 for Baker...93 through 6 for Bondermann
The good: Baker ERA now at 5.00
The bad: Punto BA now at .207
aw, that's a shame. Bartlett's had a good game defensively up 'til that one
Baker with the game of his life!
Second one in a row, too.
Light Rail is looking very, very efficient tonight.
Would Gardy let him go the distance?
Depends upon what "the distance" means. 15 innings, the way this one is going.
150 pitches? Who is he, A.J. Burnett?
No, I meant the game could go 15 innings, not that Baker should.
Yeah... I was making the subtle comment that through 15 innings Baker would still only be at around 150 pitches.
cr@p. Baker doesn't deserve this. Where's the run support?
Homer
Now that is really a shame.
Todd Jones! Thank you, God!
What a poor game for the offense. Bonderman had 80 pitches after 5 and manages to go 8. They really Berted this one up.
In the National league, it would have been an easy win. Baker would have produced far better than Tyner, and Thames wouldn't have even been in the game.
Twins Lose
Dang...Maybe we aught to switch this offense with the E-Twins.
That's just a criminal loss tonight. But I'll take the Baker performance. Good signs.
A damn shame.
Vote yes on light rail.
Excellent effort for Scott Baker. A loss, yes, but the kid was all right.
He seemed to have more movement on his fastball than usual. ESPN even compiled a montage of cutters so Morgan could talk about his great, late-breaking pitches. I thought to myself, 'Wow, that's new, isn't it?' Maybe he's been talking to Silva.
Baker GB% by year:
39.9% -- 2005
33.8% -- 2006
40.2% -- 2007
I kind of wonder if it is more a matter of getting back to what he was able to do in '05 than doing something totally new.