All-Star Selection Thoughts
Posted by ubelmann on Sunday, July 1st, 2007 at 6:53 pm
I guess I'm not terribly surprised by any of the decisions. Neshek over Nathan for the last roster spot is a little surprising, though. Based solely on the first half of this season, I can see why you would pick Neshek over Nathan. But stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, Nathan's been doing it for longer, and I still consider him the superior pitcher, though the difference has gotten to be pretty small. Jenks made it because the White Sox needed a rep, so I have no real argument there. Putz, Papelbon, and K-Rod are all deserving selections.
Personally, I think it's ridiculous that Victor Martinez gets selected over Mauer, but I guess I like my catchers to be good at catching. Mauer was about 10 runs better at the plate than Martinez last year, and Martinez needed Mauer to sit out for a whole month to get 10 runs ahead of Mauer this year. Ratewise, Mauer's as good as Martinez at the plate, and I don't think Mauer has a big enough history of injury that it detracts from his being a "star."
Behind the plate, it seems like there's no comparison. Martinez starts at 1B not only to get his bat into the lineup, but also to get his glove/arm out from behind the plate. Last year, he allowed 100 stolen bases and caught just 22 would-be base stealers over 133 games. Last year, Mauer allowed just 36 SB versus 22 CS over 120 games. This year, Martinez has done better, but has hardly done anything to write home about. With 37 SB allowed, he's already given up more SB than Mauer did all of last year, while catching only 15 in the process. So far this year, Mauer has been even better than last year, with 10 SB versus 11 CS over 39 games.
On top of that, Mauer is solid at all other aspects of catching. If he's not the front-runner for a Gold Glove, he should at least be in the discussion. Pudge still has his reputation, but has allowed 30 SB and only 9 CS on the season. Posada has been similarly bad, allowing 59 SB with just 15 CS.
I suppose that I'm just as happy to have Mauer resting up for the second half of the season, but for my money, he's the best overall catcher in the game.
Santana made the roster--it would have been ridiculous if he didn't--and I still think he should be the starter, but I'm sure he won't be.
Torii's a pretty deserving choice since his defense is back to normal. (And if I'm constructing a team to win one game, it seems like a nice option that I could have Hunter, Ichiro, and Sizemore all in the outfield if I'm trying to protect a 1-run lead at the end of the game.)
Teixeira gets kind of screwed here, but it depends on how bad you think Ortiz's glove is and how good Teixeira's glove is. I don't think it's a crazy claim that as a first baseman, Teixeira is more deserving than Ortiz. Ortiz is certainly a better hitter than Teixeira, but you can build a pretty good case that Travis Hafner was a better hitter than Ortiz each year from 2004 to 2006.
I'm not a big Michael Young fan, but the middle infield options in the AL are rather underwhelming. And Gil Meche doesn't really deserve to be an All-Star, but he gives the AL someone they can stick in the 'pen in case they need someone to eat innings if the game is tied after 11 innings. John Buck or David DeJesus would probably have been the other options to look at in KC.
Overall, the AL squad looks pretty reasonable, and catcher is probably the main place I would've done things differently, followed by first base.
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Congrats to our Twins representatives. Each of them is very deserving of their spots.
Nathan's A-S bonus is bigger, so Pohlad lobbied for the kid
Re: Neshek over Nathan
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know when the last time a reliever other than a closer was selected (over the closer) for the ASG from a team with a "name" closer? I don't pay much attention to ASG selections, so I have no idea if this is a regular occurrence or not.
Brendan Donnelly in 2003 is the last one I remember.
Also Duchscherer in '05 as Oakland's lone representative
I was really surprised to see that Prince Fielder got the nod at first over Pujols in the NL. Other than that, most of the rosters were expected. I'm glad to see Morneau, Santana, and Hunter all there. Wish Mauer could've done it, but I understand why he didn't (injury).
Does anyone know if this year it "counts" again? Wasn't sure if they renewed that or not.
Michael Young doesn't deserve to be on the team (he's hitting .291/.342/.400, in Texas); Teixeira or Otsuka should have been the Rangers' rep. The roster didn't need two reserve shortstops. Granderson should be there instead of Sizemore. Beckett is having a good year, but too bad he's on the team mainly because of his 11-2 record.
Meche isn't a bad choice, especially being a mandatory lone rep from a last-place team. His 3.28 ERA is 10th in the league.
Shame that all the "last chance" nominees are pitchers. I'm sure the managers want one more arm "just in case," but the fans should have the opportunity to vote for Mauer and Teixeira, at least.
Not much to complain about with the AL starters. Only Pudge doesn't really belong -- unless you think his defense and "intangibles" outweigh his mediocre offense. I'd have taken Posada, Mauer and Martinez, probably. But the defending AL champs deserve ample recognition and Mauer will get plenty more.
At SS, Orlando Cabrera got screwed. The other screwage involves Sheffield.
AL leaders at each position by RC:
C: martinez (62), Posada (46), Mauer (37). Pudge is 4th at 36.
1b: Youkilis (61), Morneau (47), C. Pena and Teixeira tied (43)
2b: Brian Roberts (61), Polanco (57), A. Hill (44)
3b: A-Rod (81), Mora and Lowell tied (43)
SS: Jeter (65), Cabrera (55), Peralta (53). Guillen is 4th (52); Young is 5th (46).
LF: Crawford (50), ManRam and R. Ibanez tied (43)
CF: Ichiro! (75), Sizemore (66), Granderson (59). Hunter 4th at 56
RF: Ordonez (79), Guerrero (70), Cuddyer (53)
DH: Sheffield (64), D. Ortiz (61), Hafner (47)
among the pitchers, the one that got away was Hideki Okajima (0.92 ERA, 9.2 K/g in 39 innings for boston).
Runs created is going to substantially underrate anyone who spent any time whatsoever on the DL, since it doesn't look at value over some baseline level (replacement level, bench, whatever you want to choose.) No one gets replaced with an automatic out when they aren't in the lineup and no matter how low you reasonably set replacement level, it's a lot higher than .000/.000/.000.
The other screwage involves Sheffield.
I guess I have little sympathy for hitters who don't actually play a position. Hafner was a substantially better hitter than Sheffield for the last three years. So far this year, Hafner's numbers haven't looked great, but his PrOPS is third in the league, just a tiny bit behind Sheffield. If you asked me who the better DH is between the two, I would say Hafner.
among the pitchers, the one that got away was Hideki Okajima (0.92 ERA, 9.2 K/g in 39 innings for boston).
I wouldn't really say that. Ranked by FIP:
2.00 -- Rafael Betancourt
2.11 -- Nathan
2.14 -- Sherrill
2.37 -- K-Rod
2.49 -- Jenks
2.51 -- Paps
2.55 -- Okajima
2.55 -- Otsuka
2.83 -- Putz
And Putz had a ridiculous 1.81 FIP last year. (Of course, Joe Nathan led the league with a 1.63 FIP.) Betancourt's had a great 35 innings, but has he really found a way to limit HR, or has he just been lucky over a small sample size? Sherrill's been the best LOOGY so far this year and has done decently against righties, but he's used as a specialist.
I think the best four relief pitchers in the AL are Nathan, Rodriguez, Putz, and Papelbon in some order. And you could probably add Jenks to that group, too. Okajima hasn't done anything to show he's really any better than those guys, and he hasn't been doing it for as long. If he keeps it up, maybe he'll crack that group, but I don't really see him as deserving.
Joe Girardi said on Saturday's Fox telecast that Mauer will play in many, many more all-star games; maybe it 's for the best that he gets a few days off to rest this year. I tend to agree.
No one knows that Mauer will play in future All-Star games. I think he's the best catcher in baseball right now, and has been for over a year, so I really see no good reason he shouldn't be on something called an All-Star team. At what point do we stop using "well, he'll play in many, many more all-star games" as an excuse?
I agree that the extra rest will be good for Joe, but it would also be good for Johan, Torii, and especially the recently injured Morneau. Why not just send no one from the team to the All-Star game so we can gear up for the stretch drive?
Call Leyland and see if you can make it happen, Ubes.
Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez will play in many, many more All-Star Games. So I propose that they bow out of this one to spend a few days resting at home, as well. Give someone else a chance, huh?
well, I know Runs Created is a counting stat, not a rate stat. but the A-S game isn't just about rate stats. If you haven't been playing, you haven't been contributing.
Okajima's (adjusted) DERA is a healthy 1.05. 36:10 K:BB and 4 runs allowed in 40 innings.
Neshek's adjusted DERA is 1.53. 47:12 K:BB and 6 runs in 39.33 innings.
Nathan: 2.35 DERA, 40:9 K:BB and 9 runs in 35.33 innings
Betancourt: 1.42 DERA, 33:3 K:BB, 5 runs in 35.33 innings
I think you can make a pretty persuasive case for Okajima. Not that I would have anything against Sideshow making an appearance.
FWIW. AL relievers in WPA:
Putz: 3.91
Papelbon: 2.81
Betancourt: 2.55
Neshek: 2.34
Okajima: 2.30
AL starters in WPA:
Haren: 3.20
J. Guthrie: 2.65
Shields: 2.17
Sabathia: 2.13
Blanton: 1.97
Marcum: 1.93
Bedard: 1.87
Garland: 1.86
Verlander: 1.75
Carmona: 1.66
well, I know Runs Created is a counting stat, not a rate stat. but the A-S game isn’t just about rate stats.
It's not just that RC is a counting stat--it's the wrong kind of counting stat. A player shouldn't be judged on his value above automatic out, he ought to be judged on his value above some non-zero level of awfulness. Punto has 26 runs created this year. Do you really think he's been as valuable as Akinori Iwamura, who has compiled his 27 runs created in 100 fewer plate appearances? Are we to expect that Iwamura's replacement would hit no better than this keyboard I'm typing on? Even Chris Heintz, hitting like a pitcher, was able to amass 4 RC in his 13 games this year.
I think you can make a pretty persuasive case for Okajima. Not that I would have anything against Sideshow making an appearance.
There's nothing special about Okajima. Maybe you could make a case for him, but you could similarly make cases for a bunch of middle relievers. So I don't really see how he was left out--he's not a star.
A player shouldn’t be judged on his value above automatic out, he ought to be judged on his value above some non-zero level of awfulness.
I've never understood these arguments. It's just an intercept shift. If you are using different intercepts for different positions/player types, then ok. But saying that there is a systematic difference in meaning between "distance above zero" and "distance above a constant k"??? Both zero and k are constants.
now, your point that Punto and Iwamura aren't adequately compared by using raw RC is completely valid. That's where a rate statistic comes into play. Punto: 2.69 RC/27; Iwamura 6.47 RC/27. Uhhhh, I think that looks about right, doesn't it?
If Punto had played a thousand games prior to the A-S break, accumulating 284 RC, he still wouldn't be more deserving than Iwamura and his 29 RC in 45 games. I get that.
My point in looking at RC was in part to validate the starter selections. They've played a lot AND performed well.
The AL leader in FIP is Ryan Rowland-Smith at 0.23. You wouldn't argue in favor of him making the A-S game, would you? Given that he's only thrown 2.33 innings and all...
But saying that there is a systematic difference in meaning between “distance above zero” and “distance above a constant k”??? Both zero and k are constants.
Yes. You just agreed to as much here:
now, your point that Punto and Iwamura aren’t adequately compared by using raw RC is completely valid. That’s where a rate statistic comes into play. Punto: 2.69 RC/27; Iwamura 6.47 RC/27. Uhhhh, I think that looks about right, doesn’t it?
THT has Punto at 3.4 RC/G and Iwamura at 6.4 RC/G, which is a weird discrepancy if nothing else. Say we set 3.0 RC/G as "inadequacy level" for hitters. (Ignore positional differences for the moment.) Given the way Punto has been hitting lately, this seems to set the bar conservatively low if anything.
So, taking their "Runs Created Above Inadequate" as (RC/G - 3.0) * (Outs/27) (outs/27 being the denominator of RC/G), we get 3.1 RCAI for Punto and 14.3 RCAI for Iwamura. Iwamura comes out ~10 runs on top with this comparison--why? Because 200 PA of Iwamura and 100 PA of a sub-Puntovian replacement is more valuable than 300 PA of Punto. That would not be the case if the sub-Puntovian replacement is worth 0.0 RC/G, but even totally inadequate options like Luis Rodriguez or Pablo Ozuna are better than 0.0 RC/G.
The concept of a replacement level is useful not just to compare value across positions, but also to compare the value of a very good but sometimes available player and the value of a not good but always available player.
The AL leader in FIP is Ryan Rowland-Smith at 0.23. You wouldn’t argue in favor of him making the A-S game, would you? Given that he’s only thrown 2.33 innings and all…
No, but I haven't suggested anything absurd like that, have I?
My problem with Young isn't so much what he's hitting--though his hitting is definitely overrated--it's that his defense is pretty bad. (Which you might expect considering that he only needed to be better defensively than Alfonso Soriano when he was moved to short in the first place.) UZR has him at about 20 runs below average per year since he's been a SS. Even if UZR isn't the best way to measure defense (though most folks like it best), and you want to regress that to the mean more, I think it's fair to say that he's 10 runs below average on defense over the course of a year. That takes a pretty big chunk out of whatever offensive value he might have.
Granderson should be there instead of Sizemore.
No way. Granderson had a .258 EQA last year and a .298 EQA this year. Sizemore had a .298 EQA last year and a .304 EQA this year. Both are plus defenders. Granderson has some power, but Sizemore has a nearly 60-point edge on Granderson in OBP, Sizemore has the better track record as a hitter, and the EQA's indicate that park factors don't make up the gap for Granderson. Sizemore absolutely deserves to be picked over Granderson.
Beckett is having a good year, but too bad he’s on the team mainly because of his 11-2 record.
It might be for the wrong reasons, but Beckett has the third best xFIP so far in the AL. He's never been durable, but last year seems way out of line with the rest of his career, so I really have no problem with his selection.
Meche isn’t a bad choice, especially being a mandatory lone rep from a last-place team. His 3.28 ERA is 10th in the league.
Yeah, but is this the All-Star team or the All-First-Half team? I thought you were arguing with me earlier this season that Meche would never keep this up. I have a strong preference for players who have performed at a high level before this season and players who are likely to perform at a high level in the second half of the season--those are the players who are stars. Granted, on KC, you can't really find anyone like that, but Meche gets in on a technicality, not because he really deserves it.
...but the fans should have the opportunity to vote for Mauer and Teixeira, at least.
Of course, they shouldn't need to, since they should have been on the team in the first place.
John Donovan is mystified -- despite his and his colleagues non-stop pontificating on the evil of Barry Bonds, the fans still wanted him in the All-Star game. I mean years and years of writing bad things about him (even before the steroids allegations) and the fans still want to see him play? Wait, didn't they read everything we said? Isn't that important?
Uh, no, it's not.
If they needed it to go this way, Soria might have been a good choice over Meche (although really, Meche is about as good of a choice as the Royals have had in a while).
John. Buck.
"MVP" may be a bit false, but "ASG MVP" could be a possibility.
Sizemore absolutely deserves to be picked over Granderson.
I just think that the guy with the highest OPS of AL Centerfielders ought to be there. The fact that Granderson also has 22 doubles and 15 triples to go with his 11 HR to this point also creates the potential for a more exciting game with him in it. Two other CF's were picked for the reserves instead of him. If you wanted to drop the lowest OPS, that would be Sizemore. If you dropped the lowest RC, RC/27, RARP, or EqA, that would be Hunter. Maybe Torii Hunter is the least deserving. But Granderson should be on the roster instead of one or the other.
Yeah, but is this the All-Star team or the All-First-Half team?
It doesn't bother me to see a player named just because he's having a hot first half. Part of the ASG appeal is that it features breakout stars, or flashes in the pan when they're shining brightest, as well as the familiar favorites. Meche has been one of the big surprise stories of the season, and some people may be curious to get a look at him, possibly for the first time, in the showcase. Anyway, I won't begrudge him his moment in the sun. If he slips in the second half, oh well.
If players should be disqualified from the game in their breakout season, I guess Torii's appearance in 2002 shouldn't have happened--and then we never would have seen the highlight of that game, when he robbed Bonds of the HR, either. Then you probably could pick off a few more guys from the current rosters, as well.
If players should be disqualified from the game in their breakout season, I guess Torii’s appearance in 2002 shouldn’t have happened–and then we never would have seen the highlight of that game, when he robbed Bonds of the HR, either.
Well, if we just want highlights, why not award positions on the roster to the flashiest defensive players in the game regardless of their overall value? It could be like the And1 Tour for baseball.
(Also, if Torii doesn't rob Bonds of that home run, maybe the game doesn't end in a tie, and maybe we don't have to bother with the "this time it counts" nonsense. So maybe we would have been better off without Torii in the game.)
I just think that the guy with the highest OPS of AL Centerfielders ought to be there.
OPS is nice as a quick-and-dirty stat, but Sizemore and Granderson present the perfect illustration of a case where it will incorrectly value certain players. Sizemore's edge in OBP is more valuable than Granderson's edge in SLG, making Sizemore the more valuable offensive player.
If you want to argue that Granderson is better than Hunter, you'll get no big protest from me--they're probably pretty equivalent, though, so I don't see it as much of a slight for either to get left off the roster. Sizemore (along with Ichiro) is in a higher tier than either of those two, though.
Part of the ASG appeal is that it features breakout stars, or flashes in the pan when they’re shining brightest, as well as the familiar favorites.
I personally don't get anything out of seeing a player in the All-Star game who has a track record of mediocrity and is likely to revert to being mediocre again. It's one thing for a young top prospect (like Granderson, say) to be having a good season that could reasonably be considered a breakout, but is Meche really having a breakout season? If he's using a new pitch more often (I still suspect he's started throwing his slider a lot more) and his arm holds up...maybe. I would personally rather see someone like Halladay in Meche's spot. Aside from ERA, which is a high variance team dependent stat, all the evidence would seem to point to Halladay as the superior pitcher. But we have the technicality that someone from each team has to be represented, so Meche makes the squad.
For me, the allure is seeing the best facing the best, and I'd much rather see a Halladay-Pujols matchup than a Meche-Pujols matchup. YMMV.
Well, if we just want highlights, why not award positions on the roster to the flashiest defensive players in the game regardless of their overall value? It could be like the And1 Tour for baseball.
Of course I haven’t suggested anything absurd like that, but way to avoid the point. You've also deftly suggested that Torii's impact on the 2002 ASG is, in retrospect, both a silly reason to be glad that he played but a fair reason to regret that he was involved.
For the record, do you really think that Torii Hunter shouldn't have been a 2002 All-Star because he hadn't proved himself prior to that season? What is a satisfactory duration of excellence before a player proves he belongs in the showcase? Are rookie phenoms out, too? Who else would you strike from this year's rosters because they haven't established a great enough track record of excellence?
Sizemore (along with Ichiro) is in a higher tier than either of those two, though.
He's a little better than Granderson this season by some measures, but the difference isn't great.
Granderson is hitting .289/.343/.563/.906; 61.6 RC, 7.39 RC/27, .296 EqA, 24.6 RARP
Sizemore is hitting .285/.399/.468/.868; 65.9 RC, 7.71 RC/27, .303 EqA, 28.3 RARP.
Sizemore's advantage is mainly in stolen bases and walks. I'll agree that's enough to earn him a spot on the All-Star team, although I wouldn't say his performance is on another tier right now. But if sabermetric stats definitely put Sizemore ahead of Granderson, the same is true of Granderson having a distinct edge over Hunter (53.5 RC, 6.51 RC/27, .291 EqA, 21.1). If you're taking three CF's this year, Granderson really should be one of them.
For me, the allure is seeing the best facing the best, and I’d much rather see a Halladay-Pujols matchup than a Meche-Pujols matchup. YMMV.
But then you've decided that Meche himself isn't too interesting. What if the pitcher in question were Chad Gaudin, Jeremy Guthrie, or Joe Blanton? How about Erik Bedard or James Shields? Mark Buehrle?
Of course I haven’t suggested anything absurd like that, but way to avoid the point.
Mentioning the catch distracted me from your real point about whether or not Hunter deserved to be on the team.
For the record, do you really think that Torii Hunter shouldn’t have been a 2002 All-Star because he hadn’t proved himself prior to that season?
Like with Granderson this year, I think it's reasonable to look at Hunter's 2002 campaign as Hunter reaching a level that he could stick with for a couple of years. I prefer Sizemore to Granderson because Sizemore was also very good last year, but that doesn't mean I don't think Granderson is good--as I said, I could sort of go either way between him and Torii, since it seems possible that Granderson's glove is more valuable than Torii's right now.
I don't have Torii's 2002 PECOTA forecast to sort of summarize whether Hunter's year was probable, but you could see him hitting for a decent average (.280) as a 24-year old, and for a good amount of power (.218 ISO) as a 25-year old. Young #1 draft pick puts it together at age 26 seems like a plausible story. Granderson probably isn't a .296 EQA hitter (PECOTA had him at .282 pre-season), but PECOTA also thought that there was a better than 25% chance that Granderson could be better than a .300 EQA this season. Granderson's improvement seems legit, since he was a top prospect who has shown signs of goodness, and he is entering his prime. In the same way, Hunter's development seemed legit (even though he'd reached his peak, his offense was a big plus on top of what was then an undeniable presence in CF.)
With Meche, he was around for a really long time in a great place for pitchers to pitch and was anywhere from mediocre to bad. If Meche is indeed throwing different pitches, then maybe this is real improvement, but this doesn't seem like a breakout year in the way that Granderson and Hunter had breakout years. If Meche isn't throwing different pitches, I'm inclined to be skeptical. If one-man-per-team wasn't a consideration, then I tend to think that Halladay has earned the benefit of the doubt over Meche, so Meche gets pushed out of the picture.
But then you’ve decided that Meche himself isn’t too interesting. What if the pitcher in question were Chad Gaudin, Jeremy Guthrie, or Joe Blanton? How about Erik Bedard or James Shields? Mark Buehrle?
Meche is interesting in a "why-is-this-happening" way, but I'm intensely interested in seeing what happens when a really good pitcher does battle with a really good hitter. We see so many games pitched by #2-#7 starters, it's only so often that you get an elite pitcher on the mound, and most teams don't have many elite hitters.
My preference then is for the most elite pitchers. The sort of guys that if you're picking sides for a pick-up game that afternoon you would want on your team. I'd pick Halladay over Meche. I would also pick Bedard over Meche since he's leading the league in xFIP and has been showing year-to-year improvement. I'm not convinced yet there's anything too elite about Gaudin, Guthrie, or Blanton (though Blanton does intrigue me.) Shields is very good, but given the limited number of spots, he'd miss the cut.
So if I had to pick seven starters to make the All-Star team, I guess I'd pick Santana, Haren (though he's been lucky so far), Sabathia, Beckett, Bonderman (I still think he's better than Verlander), Lackey (has a pretty established record of out-pitching his peripherals HR/F-wise), and Bedard. Those would be the guys I'd pick up on the playground. Past Santana and Sabathia, I'm not terribly tied to any of those guys, though.
While you guys are gabbing here, I've been burning up the intraweb stuffing the Neshek ballot box...
I think the Teixeira snub is largely due to his current DL status. Sure, injured players have made the All-Star team before, but usually they are either voted in by fans, or named before their injury, correct? How often do managers knowingly name an injured player to the team, with the full understanding they will have to replace that player anyway? Maybe if the guy is a living legend, future HoF player, or a guy with a long all-star game streak, but Tex isn't quite there yet. It would have been especially cruel this year if the replacement named was not from the Rangers, thus wasting their lone rep on an injured player. Plus, as he's been out almost a month now, he's venturing into the Mauer lack-of-counting stats territory.
I don't really have a preference between career emphasis or first-half emphasis -- as it stands now, they both seem like perfectly reasonable methods. The only real injustice I see here is lumping full-time DH's into other positions just to get them on the ballot. They should just use the DH in the All-Star Game regardless of the home ballpark if they're that concerned about it.
The only real injustice I see here is lumping full-time DH’s into other positions just to get them on the ballot. They should just use the DH in the All-Star Game regardless of the home ballpark if they’re that concerned about it.
They don't even need to be that radical to fix the problem. Real teams in the AL have a DH on their roster (excepting the Twins, of course) when they play games under NL rules, so I don't see why the All-Star team couldn't be constructed the same way. There's nothing preventing MLB from having a DH elected to the All-Star team every year, and then leaving it up to the manager whether or not the DH or the 1B should start at first base.
So the AL has one more fan-elected position than the NL (and one less selected one)? Sure, why the heck not? And it doesn't necessarily have to be the first baseman who would get bumped from starting.
LEN3 mentioned over at his blog that Santana wasn't even voted onto the team by the players--he had to be specially added to the team by Jim Leyland. I hope someone tells Santana that the rest of the league doesn't think he's an All-Star.
Nice blog.
The guy's got six losses -- how good can he be?