Failure
Posted by ubelmann on Tuesday, July 31st, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Terry Ryan, you have failed.
And I don't mean in the last two weeks. I mean that over the last year, you have failed.
Over the last year, you have failed to make one single, solitary move that meaningfully improves the Minnesota Twins as an organization. How are the Twins different today than they were last year around this time?
Willie Eyre has effectively been replaced by Ramon Ortiz. So you're paying $3M for someone to pitch in the lowest possible leverage situations. Nice.
Phil Nevin has been replaced with Jeff Cirillo. Cirillo is a decent bench guy, but it's difficult to compare him to Nevin since Gardy was so petrified that Nevin might strike out that he was only used in 54 measly plate appearances. (And for the record, Nevin's PrAVG/PrOBP/PrSLG over that period was .284/.416/.441.) Not to mention, Crillo's availability has been limited due to injury.
Brad Radke is retired and Luis Castillo was jettisoned for nothing.
The organization last year was flawed. The organization still has those exact same flaws. When are you going to get around to improving the organization? You have a few special players on the roster right now, but they aren't going to stick around forever if you keep this up.
Loading ...
Heck, I'd argue the organization is more flawed now than it was a year ago simply because Morneau and Santana are getting more expensive by the day. I could stomach Terry Ryan's non-acquisitions of a third baseman, a DH, or a left fielder if he'd hammered something out to keep the MVP and the best pitcher in the game with the club for a long time to come.
I can't wait for next year when the team is exactly the same, only without Hunter. We are going to be shut out sooooooo many times in 2008.
I also want to say that the similarities between Ryan's failure and McHale's failure are disturbing. We all know how well that situation turned out.
Let's not go overboard. Ryan hasn't locked up mediocre (or worse) players for long-term deals at high money. Ryan doesn't throw in a 1st round pick with every deal he makes as if they are after-dinner mints. And Ryan hasn't chased off any first-ring HOF players.
I wouldn't completely discount the chances of TR picking up a hitter still. I just think the kind of player he's looking for would have a good chance of clearing waivers anyway, so to him the deadline may not really mean that much. That doesn't excuse Tony Batista, Juan Castro, Rondell White, Ramon Ortiz, and Sidney Ponson, et al., of course. That's friggin' egregious.
Geez, I don't think it's that bad, ubes.
Signing Mauer was meaningful.
Hey, Bobby Kielty was released by the A's...
And no, I have no understanding of the Castillo trade, other than my semi-conspiracy theory, where TR makes some bad trades so other GMs will speak to him.
Signing Mauer was meaningful.
Mauer's deal was largely insignificant. If TR went year-to-year with Mauer, he'd wind up paying roughly the same amount. Mauer's contract maybe buys out one year of his free agency, I'm not sure when he would've become a free agent.
Locking up your best young players through their arbitration years is GM'ing 101, though. Even Bill Bavasi can do that, for crying out loud. Sometimes it works out well, sometimes the player gets injured and it looks bad. It adds cost certainty, but I guess I don't think there was much value added there.
Well, this does not bode well... but really, who can blame him?
Gloom and doom, gloom and doom, gloom and doom,... so, where's the Jessica Biel?
+15 minutes of
infameyTerry Ryan is following the same path the Twins have taken the past 30 years. Build from within and make the tough choices once your players get into their free agent years. With a limited payroll, Terry has a much smaller margin for error than other GM's.
He can't really take on any payroll at this point, with large contract negotiations looming. We trade for a 3 - 8 million a year guy and that limits who we can sign out of the Santana, Morneau, Nathan or Hunter bunch.
If you pick up a rent-a-player who's contract will expire you are giving up prospects (which we are not rich in) for 2 months from a player who probably isn't going to make enough of a difference to make up 6-8 games on Detroit and Cleveland, while passing the billion dollar Yanquis.
We all seem to think that Terry can pull another Sabean-type trade at will, but with his reputation, other teams are probably a bit gun-shy.
Ubes, you have always been the rational when it come to the Twins and our players. Do you actually think picking up one marginal bat (which I understand is a huge improvement over Punto/Tyner) would really significantly improve our chances to catch 3 teams for the wild card?? And if we did... do you think this roster (think starting pitching) could really win a series in the playoffs??
I believe that the business side of the Twins should be to stay competitive in 07-09, while cautiously building for 2010 and the ability to increase payroll. We need a base to build upon when that time comes. If you look at our moves the past year, that is exactly what TRyan is doing. He is making low-risk "I hope I catch lightning in a bottle" moves to (try) and keep us competitive for now, while building for 2010.
It is crass and not popular to come out and say it, but Torii Hunter signed through 2010 would not be a smart business decision. The same is probably true for Joe Nathan. That leaves Johann and Morneau as our two primary goals for contract negotiations. Other than that, I agree with what Terry Ryan is doing.... don't pick up any more big contracts... try to develop from within ... any holes in the roster in 09 will then be addressed in free agency and trades.
While I largely agree with zooomx and Moss here, either TR has been significantly constrained by Pohlad, or he has some serious blinders on. Wealth of pitching prospects in the system, dearth of corner OF and corner IF prospects (or at least 3b prospects) who are near-Major League ready.
I'm sure he has been disappointed in the non-development of Moses and the slowed development of Winfree. But those are not sufficient excuses for not looking outside the organization for a real solution at 3b, post-Koskie. Andy Marte, Betemit, and Kouzmanoff are all big-time 3b prospects who have been moved in recent years. Whether they have panned out as stars is beside the point. You have to take some risks in this business. And I'm not talking about Batista-type risks.
if Buscher works out, that is not really a feather in Ryan's cap, in my view. It's just dumb luck. But he's unlikely to be much better than the average of Nicky Punto over the last 3 seasons.
What was really stupid was not locking up Morneau last winter when he was apparently willing to sign for Mauer money. Foolish beyond belief. There would have been cost certainty (read: containment) for four years for the best power hitter this team has had in almost 40 years. But, no. Poor decision making by the general manager.
I thought rumor was he had been offered Mauer money but wanted more??? I could be wrong, but that is what I remembered
I remember that too. The thought was that since he won the MVP, he wanted more money than Mauer.
I thought David Ortiz was the best power hitter this team has had in almost 40 years.
Ubes, you have always been the rational when it come to the Twins and our players. Do you actually think picking up one marginal bat (which I understand is a huge improvement over Punto/Tyner) would really significantly improve our chances to catch 3 teams for the wild card??
It could have if he picked up that bat over the winter.
Mainly what I'm pointing out here is what I suddenly realized after the trade deadline passed--this team hasn't gotten any better over the last year. Not through a trade, not by spending some free agent money, not with a savvy waiver wire pick-up, not with a stand-out Rule 5 selection, not with anything.
For instance, however you might feel about the Twins needing a left-handed no-defense bat, they've used Garrett Jones this year. Jack Cust >>> Garrett Jones. Cust was had for a PTBNL or cash considerations. The Twins have lost the following players this off-season and gotten nothing (Darnell McDonald) in return: LaVale Speigner, Alex Romero, J.D. Durbin, and Kevin Cameron. It sure seems to me that since the Padres were clearly interested in Kevin Cameron, that they could have given up Jack Cust in return for Cameron. If they did that and added Cameron to their 40-man roster, they wouldn't even have had to worry about keeping him on the 25-man roster and could've made a different Rule 5 selection if they'd wanted. And Cust isn't the only guy the Twins could've gotten with their PTBNL-level prospects.
And maybe Cust isn't the specific guy the Twins wanted, but other teams have right-handed corner outfielders in their organization. When the Twins dealt J.C. Romero, they did a good job at finding an organization that was overloaded with middle infielders and getting a middle infielder that wasn't in that team's plans. So go out and find a team who has too many corner OF prospects or one that can't find enough spots on their 40-man roster for a corner OF. Aiming for better than Josh Rabe is not a tall order.
If the Twins had really gone out there and tried something out of the box, they could've out-bid the Reds for Josh Hamilton. It would've probably cost the Twins something around $200K. In exchange for that risk, they would've immediately had someone who fills Jason Tyner's role, but does it better. On top of that, Hamilton would be under team control for next year and beyond, and could be a legitimate starting CF in the absence of Torii Hunter. The worst case scenario is that Hamilton starts back in with drugs and you've lost Jason Tyner and $200K. That doesn't sound like losing much to me.
I guess I'm sick of watching our lower quality pitching prospects leave for nothing when we could clearly use some low quality prospects in the corner outfield spots and third base. The organization lacks balance, and for whatever reason, the Twins have been unwilling or unable to fix that.
I agree that we have failed to address the 3b position by hoping that one of our prospects was going to pan out. I would disagree that we have a wealth of pitching prospects. There are some good arms on the farm, but when you only have one proven starter on you big league roster, you can never have enough prospects. You usually need to run at least 3 guys out on the mound before one finally stands up and succeeds.
I think Ryan thought that he would get better production out of 2b, LF, and RF this year and was willing to deal with below-league average production out of DH and 3b. I don't think anyone imagined that all 5 positions would see a decline in production. The starting pitching is showing signs of being solid, but has been very inconsistent. The bullpen has been very solid as expected. Even with all of the let-downs, we are above .500 and a dark horse for a wild card.
With all of the up and downs and streakiness of the team, I am unsure if I would have made a deal for another bat unless I got a great deal. I just don't think Terry could swing any great deals, so he decided to ride this one out.
to be fair, I don't think RF really is a position where the Twins have gotten "a decline in production", excepting Cuddy's recent stint on the DL.
BA OBP SLG OPS+ Year
284 362 504 124 2006
289 373 450 119 2007
not much of a decline there, (park-adjusted OPS+ taking into account the league-wide decline in offense)
I think Ryan thought that he would get better production out of 2b, LF, and RF this year and was willing to deal with below-league average production out of DH and 3b.
TR has to think beyond the starting lineup, though. Amongst White, Kubel, and Cuddyer there was going to be some time spent on the DL, and he didn't have any adequate replacements on hand for them. That's poor planning, no?
Well, I'm not too worried about Johan's reaction---yet. His free agency is still a year away, and this could simply be an emotional reaction. There is still time for him to change his mind.
Similarly, I'm not too upset at Terry Ryan for not making moves---yet. I agree with those above who said that the Twins are not going to make the playoffs this year, anyway. They may have missed a chance to dump more salary, and they may have missed a chance to trade marginal players for marginal prospects, but the only person we were at all likely to trade who would have brought something really worth having is Torii Hunter. As has been discussed here previously, it's hard to tell whether we could have gotten more for him in a trade than we will in draft choice(s) if he walks at the end of the year.
If nothing is done in the off-season, however, I will be upset. It's clear that the current team is not good enough to make the playoffs. Getting Liriano back will help, but not that much, simply because pitching has not been our major problem. The offense must be improved. It is clear that Punto cannot be a regular player, and that White cannot be counted on as the answer to anything. It is also clear that no one in the organization is qualified to play center on a regular basis if Hunter is gone. Those gaping holes have to be addressed, and not by Batista-esque stop-gaps.
It's all very well to be this cute little team that battles its collective tail off, but that gets old if you aren't able to actually win something. I stayed loyal to the Twins in the 1970s, and in the early 1980s, and in the late 1990s, so I'm sure I'll stay loyal to them no matter what happens. That doesn't mean, however, that I look forward to the prospect of going back to those days, and as attendance figures from that era would show, most people are not willing to stick with a loser, no matter how hard it battles. This off-season, the Twins are going to have to get some things done.
I've criticized Hunter for a long time about his popping off in the press. So, if I'm going to be consistent, I have to say that I don't think that Santana's little tirade was the kind of thing that I think should be said. What the GM should have done was dump Silva -- and I'll bet Johan would have been up in arms about that.
I would like to know what exactly Christensen asked Santana or if this was an off-the-cuff tirade captured by our fearless beat writer.
What I hate most, is that this will become, for however long a national baseball story and talking points for guys like Steve Phillips, KruK, Kurjkian, Olney, etc.
Interestingly enough, about midnight, Rob Neyer was on ESPN radio with one of the Gamenight hosts. He basically called the Casilla/Castillo trade off was a wash. He also said the GM ought to disregard what he hears from the clubhouse in these matters.
I'd certainly agree with that Neyer analysis. Which does not relieve TR of responsibility for not finding another competent bat to plug into the lineup.
A Wigginton, Kielty, Milton Bradley, or Ensberg really could make the difference between this club making and not making the playoffs.
You can't win when you get shut out (9 times shut out vs 4 shut outs of opponents; make that 4-4 instead and we pick up a couple games, probably).
15-14 in one-run games. An extra bat could have turned a couple of those games around (and possibly added a couple more one-run losses by converting 2-3 run losses into one-run losses; so I'm not all atizzy about the W/L percentage, just observing that there have been a lot of close -- and thereby gettable -- losses).
so a net swing of 3-4 wins in the Twins' favor would put them squarely in the middle of a pennant race and wild card race right now.
BP has Nicky Bunto at -1 BRAR and +15 FRAR. Wilson Betemit: +13 and +4 in about half the PA. Morgan Ensberg: +7 and +2 in many fewer PA. Ty Wigginton: +25 and +4 in similar PA. Russell Branyan: +7 and +5 in about a third as many PA. I believe the batting numbers a lot more than the fielding numbers and I think the Twins really should be willing to exchange a little more fielding risk for some greater offensive potential.
I go back and forth on this. You don't want your players questioning management in the press... I agree. However, you do want intense competitors who want to win. Sometimes the intensity spills out into the press. If you had a team full of talented, yet laid back, players would you have a winner or an underperformer??
I can forgive Santana's comments as they come from competitiveness. "I want to win". Now if he continues on and questions specific moves and/or decisions then we are in trouble.
I actually liked what Johan had to say. I thought it should be said. I think the motto of Terry Ryan is "don't suck." I also think that's the best way to run an organization from a business standpoint. As long as you have a team that plays over .500 ball at a reasonable payroll, you're going to make money.
I don't think the Twins needed a big blockbuster trade. They should have made a move to get a DH at a reasonable price (Wily Mo Pena, Jonny Gomes, etc.) and an average 3B (Ensberg, one of the SD 3B) There are 37 players listed as 3B on MLB.com with an OPS over .700. Ryan should have been able to trade for someone for a low-level prospect.
There is a lot to be said in favor of a "don't suck" business model in an oligopolistic cartel with revenue sharing.
but then, look at the gi-normous revenue bump that Minnesota got from winning the 1987 and 1991 W.S. in terms of attendance in 1988 and 1992, respectively. In 1987, the Twins averaged 25,703 (6th in the AL). In 1988, 37,416 (1st in the AL). In 1990, 21,624 (11th in the AL); 1991, 28,319 (8th); 1992, 30,674 (5th).
Not sucking is way better, from a revenue standpoint, than sucking. Actually winning a World Series is still way better.
During the bad 1990s, the Twins' attendance was mired in the 14k-18k range per game, consistently last in the AL (bottoming out at 12,335 in 2000). But since then, while it is much higher (22k-29k per game), it is stuck in the bottom half of the AL (counting backwards from this year, ranking 8th, 9th, 9th, 11th, 8th, 9th, 11th since 2001). Clearly, being competitive has not been enough to push the franchise into the upper ranks of popularity with fans. You actually have to win some playoff series and at least make the World Series on occasion.
Ah yes, this what we'll hear a lot of from this point forward. Olney (sub. req.):
One more reason I hate Olney and love Neyer.
For this reason, I think the Twins exectutive management, with the backing of the Pohlad's will decide to make Santana the highest paid pitcher in baseball and they'll do it before he hits the market, even if it means a longer deal than they'd like to make.
I agree. A lot of players have left the Twins but none with this kind of ability. I think they'll sign him and Morneau.