Brian Bannister vs. Boof!
At first glance, Bannister might look unlucky--with the nice ERA and mediocre W-L record--but 5.0 K/G and 2.5 BB/G with a 40% GB% doesn't impress me greatly. He's a decent middle-to-back of the order guy, something the Royals have had trouble developing recently, but soon enough he'll allow some more home runs and the ERA won't be so shiny.
Over the last 10 starts or so, we've had more Boof? and less Boof! Still, his season-to-date peripherals are about what they were last year, and they were pretty solid this year. On top of that, this year he's been getting more ground balls. I'm still behind Boof and his 4.33 xFIP, but I'm not banking on him repeating his 3.62 ERA from last August/September.
Playoff odds by various systems:
8.5% -- coolstandings.com
10.2% -- BP playoff odds report, unadjusted
18.4% -- BP playoff odds report, ELO-adjusted
11.2% -- BP playoff odds report, PECOTA-adjusted
Any relation to Floyd?
ahhh, yes, yes he is.
Which suggests that the Bannister clan bears some sort of blood curse. Two generations of Royals. Isn't one enough?
No Punto. Buscher at 3B, batting 8th and Casilla at 2B, batting 9th. TynyLeadoff still in effect.
So it kind of looks like it might be a Cirillo/Buscher platoon at 3B with Punto coming in for crucial defensive situations? I'm skeptical that this plan will last long, and I'm skeptical that Buscher is an improvement over Punto, but I like to see Alexi Casilla's name in the lineup. Inasmuch as lineup effects tend to be small, it also seems within the realm of possibility that even though Tyner is probably worse than Casilla, the Twins are better off putting Casilla in a lower pressure situation.
Also, it will be interesting to see what sort of lineup Gardy cobbles together when Cuddyer comes back. To me, the easiest shuffle is to make Bartlett hit first, Mauer hit second, and Cuddyer hit third, keeping the young fellers at the back of the lineup.
so, you can pretty much rule that idea out, ubes.
I predict that Jason Bartlett is now the designated number 2 hitter. Gardy rides Tyny as far as that nag will carry him (as far as it remains above the Mendoza Line). Remember, Bartlett hit 309/367/393 last season, almost all out of the 9-hole. Casilla could hit .400 and still stay at the bottom of the order. We need veteran leadership at the top. Somebody who knows how to take a pitch and battle his tail off.
Again, I'm not too opposed to keeping Casilla in the 9th spot. He's far from a sure thing to be a significant improvement over the other potential options, and there is some value in not putting him in a situation where he feels pressured. For instance:
.297/.355/.395 -- Casilla's PECOTA
.290/.335/.372 -- Tyner's 2007
Tyner should still never see the light of day against LHP, and there's a world of difference in the big picture between a hitter like that as a corner outfielder and as a hitter like that as a middle infielder, but if both of those guys are in the lineup, in terms of expected runs scored, it doesn't really matter much whether these guys are hitting 1st and 9th or 9th and 1st.
I just want to go on record as saying I'm excited for the Alexi Casilla Era.
He's really fast, and should be exciting as long as he can get on base, which I think he can. I would've liked to see a better performance in Rochester, but he still seems like a good bet. Lots of scouts like his defensive capabilities, too.
no RonDL , Kubes at DH
Wow, I totally skipped over that part of the lineup. That's verrry interesting. Maybe Gardy isn't willing to sit around and let Rondell hit .100/.150/.200 again, maybe Rondell has fessed up that he's still not healthy, or maybe Gardy is going to platoon Rondell.
I guess it's not out of the question that upon Cuddyer's return, Gardy could decide to platoon Ford/Tyner in LF with White/Kubel platooning at DH. If he's also platooning Buscher/Cirillo at 3B, that would be a crazy amount of platooning for a guy who wasn't willing to sit Jacque Jones against lefties, but it would be one way to play the hand he's been dealt. I'm clearly getting too far ahead of myself here, though.
I’m clearly getting too far ahead of myself here, though.
That's what the internet is for! Go crazy, ubes!
This sounds awful. Best wishes to everyone involved, and their family and friends.
Both directions of the 35W bridge over the Mississippi River has collapsed. Check out CNN for details. This is a huge catastrophe.
Hey SBG, check your hotmail account.
Go ahead.
This is an awful night for Minneapolis.
If you are a MPLS area resident, please check in.
Well, I'm ok... I took the 94 bridge today. I can't call anyone else I know because cell phones aren't working. This is awful.
All my family has been accounted for. I just got back in town this afternoon. What a tragedy.
Safe at home...neighbors and freinds appear OK.
I drive over that that overpass 10 times a week. Most recently at 4:30 PM today. I feel sick.
Prayers are needed here.
I used to live ~15 blocks from there, and this feels really close to home. I can't imagine having driven over that bridge this afternoon.
So far, no reported deaths. The Strib is reporting eight cars in the river.
I can't believe they're still playing the game. Half the people in the Metrodome aren't going to be able to get home tonight.
CNN said they were telling people they couldnt leave the stadium.
I don't take that bridge, but I work less than 1 mile from there.
This literally makes me sick. There's something especially sad about reading that "many (people were) trying to get to the Twins game" which was about to start. Horrible.
It does seem strange that they're playing the game, given how many people were likely on their way to the game.
according to LEN3, they were told to keep playing the game so as not to send the fans back onto the streets.
That makes a lot of sense from a logistical standpoint. I imagine it's pretty tough being out there for the players.
When did the collapse happen? The closest I've seen reported is "the end of rush hour."
I think it was a little after 6
about 6ish from what I gathered
Oh, god. Just heard about the I-35 disaster on NPR on the way home. My thoughts and prayers out to The Nation and all in the Twin Cities area.
where was the collapse? the story said something about fishing people out of the river?
35W over the Mississippi River.
Also, is it true that *both* the NB and SB roadways collapsed? I see a photo showing a nearby bridge span still intact -- is that the US 52 bridge?
In tact bridge is the Cedar Avenue Bridge, I've walked across that a few times.
Which 35W bridge is it? The one in Bloomington or the one just North of the Dome?
Just north of the Dome.
Yes, both sides collapsed.
That's the Cedar Ave. bridge. The north and southbound 35 were on the same bridge structure.
The phone system is all jammed too. So I'm one of the many, waiting on pins and needles to hear from family. Kind of takes the focus away from baseball juuuuuuust a tad.
The images are absolutely horrific.
Got through to my family. happy to say mine is all safe (my nephew commutes across that bridge, but he's on a 2pm to 11pm shift today).
my dad said that a whole school bus full of kids went into the river, but all were rescued with nothing more than minor injuries.
They didn't actually go into the river. The bus is still on a section of the bridge.
back to baseball. crap. I thought Casilla was fast?
tommorrows game has been postponed
and the groundbreaking ceremony.
Link?
the had an announcement on the radio
Link.
oooooh. the beat-out-the-throw infield-hit RBI. Twins baseball!!!
jeebus. picked off. Urgency, Bart!
Yeah, FSN North is corroborating the postponement of tomorrow's game and groundbreaking ceremony.
An appropriate response.
Both in respectful and logistical sense.
that's why John Buck is an MVP-type player
I hope nobody thinks I'm being overly crass by commenting on the game. It's a coping mechanism. Yes, I'm feeling sick to my stomach.
Of course, there's nothing wrong with it. BTW, Joey Gathright is making Lew Ford look like Roberto Clemente by comparison in LF.
Yea, but Lewwwwww probably can't jump over a car.
hahah
Latest STRIB update says ~50 vehicles went into the river. I don't know if that means actually went in, or were on the bridge sections that went down (and may or may not have fallen off)
One construction worker unaccounted for (presumed dead, I guess).
some really solid reporting work going on at the STRIB.
yeah, thats where Ive been following the story (with the game on my radio)
way to go Kubes
Kubelmann!
Kubes picks up the team a little bit. This was beginning to look like another one of those innings.
Good job by Dave St. Peter on the radio broadcast.
one death reported so far.
CNN: Police guy said 7 confirmed so far.
rookie mistake there, getting doubled off on the screamin' liner to first.
I've been on the phone with family for the past couple of hours, but I work just a couple of miles from the bridge. This is going to be a long-term story. Spot news tonight, but there will be a lot of angles to cover in the coming days and weeks. Hard to focus on baseball right now.
Missed it in all the actual news, but apparently Royals Manager Buddy Bell has announced that he is done after the season.
Also, cute/sad kid story: my 4yo daughter was pretty sure that the news coverage was of London. (b/c London Bridge is falling down). I did not want to tell her that it was downtown Minneapolis, where Daddy works.
While it would be small in the grand scheme of things, it would be nice for the folks in the Dome if the Twins could get them a win here. Still knotted at 2-2 in the 7th with Torii on second and no outs after a Mark Teahan error to lead off the inning.
Kubel!
He really turned on that and lined it into RF. Twins up 3-2.
2 RBI for the Kubelmann on two hits. Nice.
Weird. What team hat is Buscher wearing in his Gameday mugshot?
Probably the Giants.
Yep, that would be it.
Mayor Rybak has confirmed six dead.
I'm sure there will be more. My niece and her immediate family are at Fairview Riverside (she just had a baby a few days ago) and they say things are pretty much locked down there, all resources being directed to ER trauma units.
2-4-2 doesn't really do that play justice
Not necessarily a bad gamble by Ullger there. It was a close play, and we know the Royals can screw those up. Blue got the call right, though, Ford was out.
Bonser out now. 7 IP, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, 0 HR. These Royals aren't exactly the 1927 Yankees, but this still seems like a pretty solid outing.
Much better than his last one. And another QS for the rotation.
What exactly happened on the Casilla strikeout? Gameday isn't very clear about it.
catcher threw it over the 1b, ball rolled slowly down the right field line, the 2b chased it down and threw Ford out at home (trying to score from first)
Ball in teh dirt, Buck lobbed it over the first baseman down the line and Ullger sent Ford home. Grudzielanek tracked the ball down and got Ford by a few feet (it was pretty close).
Gardy LaRussa wreaking havoc in the 8th
He's been in kind of a tough spot lately because the Twins have been in so many close, winnable games. At this rate, the offense is going to kill the meat of the bullpen.
Except Nathan is the only reliever who has pitched the past 2 games so Neshek and Reyes both didn't need to be spotted.
I guess so. I was thinking more back on his ridiculous stretch from the 13th to the 21st where he appeared 7 times and pitched 6.1 innings.
actually, hadn't it been like 4-5 straight games (with one off day mixed in)??
Ithink from the 13th to 19th he had just one day off. Off the 20th, and then pitched again the 21st.
sorry, I wasn't critiquing you, ubes. I was responding to Will's more conservative explanation of why no Nathan. Somehow, I ended up commenting on your extension.
It'll be a colder day in Hell than last Saturday before I trust Guerrier over Neshek or Reyes over Neshek.
Yeah, actually, this bullpen usage is looking pretty bad right now.
That's just no good. (WP scores runner that was allowed to advance to third on Ford's error.)
Boof is going to start thinking there's a conspiracy against him getting a win.
We need to win this game. Cleveland and Texas are knotted at six in the 10th inning, and the A's beat Detroit 3-2. A great chance to pick up another game on the division leader.
Texas with runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs.
Texas scored a run now!
Awful lot of runs given away in this one, All three Twins runs scored by runners reaching on "makeable" outfield plays, the Royals score on a wild pitch and extend their other run-scoring inning with a double-clutched double play attempt.
Go Big Knockers....will Morneau end it?
Some days he gives you the impression that he's got a flair for the dramatic.
Sweet DP. Casilla to Bartlett to Morneau. It doesn't sing like Tinkers to Evers to Chance, but it'll have to do.
Jason Botts sac fly gives Texas a 7-6 lead. Runners on the corners, one out.
Good take from Hunter there.
Is the Amish chin-beard new?
Kubelmann for the walk off?
Indians are changing pitchers after Texas scores 3 in the top of the 10th. 9-6 Texas.
One more RBI single (of the four-base variety)
.... or not.
speaker not sufficient tonight.
conspiracy to keep the crowd in the dome as long as possible?
Nah, just the inept 3 runs per game offense to fault for this, I'm afraid.
Pitch 'em all, Gardy!
Were the Twins shopping Rincon anywhere? It seems he would have been good trade bait. Possibly enough for an Ensberg perhaps?
Shouldn't this be Nathan's inning? Gardy's bullpen management tonight is redickerous.
Good grief.
nathan has pitched the last 4 days
he is probably unavailable unles absolutly needed
yuck
He was absolutely needed to keep Rincon off the mound.
If we hadn't needlessly blown through three relivers in one inning, Gardy wouldn't have to go to Rincon now.
you mean because Neshek could have gotten out of that inning without allowing the tying run?
Statistics prove it irrefutably.
Great job, Wincone. Even better job, TR.
That's not TR's fault. This one's all on Gardy
the fact that Wincone is still in a Twins uniform (and someone like Ensberg is not) is all on TR
Don't let Gardy LaRussa off the hook, bS.
Wow! Ford, Punto and Casilla. No one I'd rather have up!
And then Tyner followed by Bartlett
punman: with Morneau's strength, Gardy's brains and my steel, there is no way we can lose. There will be BLOOD TONIGHT.
You just described a black hole of offense.
offense? You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
RonDL White's ready on the bench!
No, he's not available due to a personal matter.
he sucks? that's personal.
and now we're depending on Nicky Punto.
Rincon better hit the DL. I think he's injured - nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
I'd blow it up, but there's been enough destruction for one day in the Cities.
I'm thinking good thoughts, folks.
Yeah. The bomb seems gauche today.
Wow, looks like we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
We coulda been 5 out of first
Guhhhh.
Our top relievers (Neshek, Nathan, Reyes, Guerrier) are good enough to not need to platoon them so much. Sure, if its a really good hitter, with slanted splits, by all means, but Gardy should be maximizing his appearances by those four so Rincon is used much less. He's pitching worse than Bob Wells.
Guerrier:
.207/.266/.299 vs. Lefties
.175/.239/.254 vs righties
Neshek:
.121/.231/.212 vs. lefties
.157/.219/.265 vs. righties
Nathan:
.232/.262/.333 vs lefties
.244/.286/.317 vs righties
Reyes
.255/.333/.309 vs lefties
.385/.500/.513 vs righties
Okay, so don't use Reyes against righties in high leverage situations. Check. But Neshek, Guerrier, and Nathan are all almost equally effective against lefties and righties, and all have been better than Reyes in this regard (granted, Reyes has been better since he got off the DL). My advice would be to only put Reyes in if the hitter's L/R splits are drastic. But even if that's the case, don't burn your three decent middle relievers in one inning, leading to the use of this beast:
Rincon
.338/.440/.549 vs lefties
.263/.322/.438 vs righties
Really, I would actually switch the roles of Rincon and Ortiz.
Ortiz
.311/.339/.482 vs lefties
.287/.326/.464 vs righties
They're about the same against righties, and Ortiz doesn't have the horrible lefty split. Rincon should no longer be used in any situation where he might have any effect on the game.
Reax to Santana's talking:
Torii: "Does it make it easier for someone who's a free agent, and has been here a long time, to leave here at the end of the season? Yeah. Johan just summed it up. The time is now for me. And it should be for everyone else."
Nathan: "The move that was made, it's hard to see a message that's positive. So there's a lot of frustration coming out. We have been close and ... some of the stuff [Santana] said was right. This organization also has done a lot of good things. They have made a lot of good moves, brought over some great people, developed young players very well, but everybody is not perfect."
Ryan: "My door is open. Come on up. I've always had an open door. I believe that if you have something to say, especially if it's not too positive, you ought to say that to a person's face."
Cuddy: "Terry Ryan never came down and asked me why I swung at a 3-0 pitch and grounded out to third. It's not my job to make trades or say trades are bad."
State Sen. Satveer Chaudhary, DFL-Fridley: "For more than a decade, we've been hearing again and again about this organization developing young talent and working toward the future. Like Mr. Santana, I join millions of Twins fans throughout the region in wondering out loud when and if this bright future is ever going to arrive. Or is this just the latest ploy by the Pohlad family to string fans and taxpayers along while running their team on the cheap, content to contend for the playoffs every year with no real designs on competing with the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and others in October."
Okay, that last one ticks me off. For more than 6 years, the team has won the division 4 times over 5 years. They've finished over .500 for 6 straight years and area looking that way for a seventh, in which 22 of 25 active roster spots have changed. The Bright future is here, Mr. Chaudhary, and it's been here for 5 years. Oh, and the Yankees and Red Sox combined have won one more WS title than the Twins over the past 6 years.
Go Fridley!
After all that Cuddyer's been through, he still finds a way to back up management. I like it.
Upper management, that is. He might not be so supportive of field-level management.
I agree. I understand the players being upset, but the state senator was way out of line. It's amazing how quickly we've forgotten all the years when the battle was not to get into the playoffs, but to avoid 100 losses. We all want the team to win every year, but we should at least understand that the team could be and has been a whole lot worse.
I think what the senator was trying to say is that this will now be a county subsidized entity. As such, he expects that subsidy to go into the product, not the Pohlads' pockets.
I don't have a real problem with trading Castillo but based on what I've heard about the "prospects" we got in return, this is an obvious salary dump.