Justin Morneau’s RBI
August 1st, 2007 by Big Mak
My master plan was to have a nice new post leading off my blog, Daneeka's Ghost, when my Better Know a Citizen article went up with the idea that SBG Nation would wander by and be drawn in. Unfortunately, I didn't get the post finished in time, so if you stopped by you saw the Series Preview in Blog at the top. I finished the post this morning, and I figured I would post a version of it here (the full version which includes some analysis of home runs is up at "the Ghost"). This was inspired by someone (twayn?) remarking in one of the game logs that ARod and Morneau probably had different amounts of RBI opportunities given the offenses that surrounded both of them.
A simple way to approximate the chances a hitter gets to drive in baserunners is baserunners per PA, which is shown in the table below for the top 5 AL hitters in Runners Driven In (RDI = RBI-HR).
| Player | RDI | BR | BR/PA |
| M. Ordonez | 72 | 346 | 0.77 |
| A. Rodriguez | 68 | 356 | 0.76 |
| V. Guerrero | 67 | 324 | 0.74 |
| J. Morneau | 61 | 333 | 0.77 |
| V. Martinez | 61 | 296 | 0.70 |
Morneau is in the middle of the pack here, so at first glance it doesn't seem he's suffering from a lack of opportunities. But one of the hallmarks of the Twins offense is its lack of power, so is it reasonable to expect a larger percentage of those runners to be on first base? It turns out that is not the case either. In fact, Morneau has had the most chances with a runner on third (the easiest RDI opportunity) and isn't getting less chances with RISP than any of the top 5. If you've noticed that the number of chances (the numbers in parentheses) don't add up to the number of baserunners in the previous table, I discounted plate appearances in which the hitter was intentionally walked because that doesn't represent an opportunity to drive in any runners. Back to the numbers with RISP, a caveat to that observation is that a larger percentage of those RISP chances come with two outs for Morneau. This is most likely the result of "productive" outs moving runners into scoring position (or "non-productive" outs keeping them there until Morneau comes to bat). What struck me is the fact that Morneau doesn't stand out in driving runners in from third base (more two out situations mean less RBI groundouts or sac flies) and he is merely average bringing runners in from second and first. In general the Twins offense has had difficulties scoring runners from first, as detailed previously here, and it appears that Morneau is not an exception to that rule.
| Player | from 1st | from 2nd | from 3rd | RISP | % of PARISP w/ 2 out |
| M. Ordonez | 0.09 (171) | 0.22 (119) | 0.60 (50) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| A. Rodriguez | 0.13 (181) | 0.15 (115) | 0.50 (54) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| V. Guerrero | 0.12 (150) | 0.22 (88) | 0.51 (58) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| J. Morneau | 0.08 (151) | 0.20 (98) | 0.41 (70) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| V. Martinez | 0.07 (159) | 0.22 (86) | 0.65 (48) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
With all of this considered, Morneau is having another monster year in which he is currently on pace for 43 HR and 137 RBI. Those numbers are impressive enough that the footnote that he's doing it all within a subpar offense needn't be applied. Especially since the surrounding offense is actually giving him a reasonable amount of opportunities to add to those numbers.
This entry was posted by Big Mak on Wednesday, August 1st, 2007 at 9:08 am and is filed under Big Mak, Guest Writers. It is one of 61 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.
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brianS replied on August 1, 2007 at 9:39:29 am
A similar issue emerged yesterday in Howard's nice blog when some
moronenthusiastic poster opined that Mauer was the worst number-3 hitter in the league, arguing from observed HRs and RBIs. I humbly took exception.Big Mak replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:00:20 am
# of PA w/ RISP:
Mauer - 95
Morneau - 156
Hmm, I wonder where all those extra baserunners that Justin is seeing come from?
brianS replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:14:32 am
yea. having Mauer and Cuddyer batting in front of him has got to be pretty nice for Justin.
SDfan replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:06:33 am
Some of the posters on those Strib blogs are just an embarassment. I hadn't read them in weeks, but just took a few minutes to scan through the thread from your linked post above. Mauer is a terrible #3 hitter because he doesn't have enough RBIs. The problem with the Twins offense is that Bartlett can't bunt. Gadzooks.
BeenAroundAwhile Guy replied on August 1, 2007 at 12:06:45 pm
I still think the best comments are where people say we need to trade Mauer and Cuddyer for young pitching.
brianS replied on August 1, 2007 at 9:46:19 am
Two nice pieces, there, Mak. (make a quick edit on the first line of the Morneau article, however).
Big Mak replied on August 1, 2007 at 9:54:57 am
it's a new advanced metric, "run roduction"
brianS replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:10:12 am
sounds like what Gardenhire is doing when he starts Punto, L-rod, Tyner and Ford. Run roduction.
SBG replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:13:00 am
Captain Obvious says that that's actually run reduction.
brianS replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:15:14 am
I had not thought of that.
SBG replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:28:34 am
That's because you are not Captain Obvious.
Moss replied on August 2, 2007 at 4:08:27 am
Moss thought that "Run Roduction" is what you get when you put Rondell White in the lineup.
SBG replied on August 1, 2007 at 9:58:58 am
Thanks for providing a little dispassionate analysis to lighten the mood around here.
Big Mak replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:06:13 am
Maybe I'll go with some LegoVision tomorrow...
(I'm not claiming credit for that video, I saw it on Deadspin this AM)
SDfan replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:08:52 am
Gotta love Legos baseball. I really miss Batgirl. And Henry Blanco.
twayn replied on August 1, 2007 at 10:15:38 am
Well, if you're going to delve into Legoland, you need to be properly fortified first.