Scott Baker Home Runs
Posted by ubelmann on Monday, August 13th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Is Baker leaving the ball up? Let's let gameday be the judge of that. Graphics after the jump.
Summary: To me, it looks like when Baker has allowed home runs, it has been at least as much because he's left the ball over the middle of the plate as it is because he's left the ball up.
As far as whether or not Baker should try to pitch lower in the strike zone, I think that's a trickier question. From what I can tell (and certainly, given his GB%), Baker throws a 4-seam fastball. Chris Constancio did an interesting analysis of two-seam vs. four-seam fastballs and their location over at The Hardball Times. His conclusion was that two-seam fastballs seemed to get ground balls no matter where they were in the strike zone, but that four-seam fastballs get more ground balls on pitches low, particularly low and inside.
Looking at Constancio's data, it seems also seems to me that four-seam fastballs over the middle of the plate lead to more fly balls than fastballs on the corners. That would seem to make sense, since hitters should have the best plate coverage over the middle of the plate. Also, four-seam fastballs up in the zone get the most swings-and-misses even while they get hardly any ground balls.
Now certainly, I've only looked at 10 of Baker's pitches here, but it seems to me that he's not getting hurt up in the zone so much as he's getting hurt over the middle of the plate. It seems like Baker's going to need to pitch up in the zone a fair bit to get swings-and-misses (and some pop ups as well), but throwing the fastball down-and-in to induce some groundballs might help, too.
In the end, though, all pitchers will miss over the middle of the plate every now and then. A pitcher wants to minimize those mistake pitches, and he especially wants to minimize those mistake pitches to good power hitters. Whether or not Baker is making a lot of mistake pitches requires more data than I have presented here, but his 4.45 xFIP this season suggests that he's been doing pretty well overall.
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Of course, if he's throwing 90% of his pitches up there, this ain't no big thing. But, if he's down, down, down and then up and out of the park, that's a problem.
He's been throwing high overall, I noticed. His shutout, a few days ago? He wasn't keeping the ball down at all. On the contrary, his fastball had movement high in the zone, and almost every time a hitter made contact it was a weak infield pop-up or foulout.
If he can keep his pop-up % high, then the only thing (I feel) he needs to work on is not walking people. He's got decent control, but as a flyball pitcher, he doesn't want runners on. Look at Johan, he gives up tons of bombs, but since there's rarely a runner on, it doesn't hurt him as much. If Baker can minimize walks, and maybe pick up some more strikeouts, his pop-up% should make him a good pitcher.
It's at 15.6%, according to THT. If he qualified (he doesn't have enough innings), he'd be 2nd in the American League behind Jarrod Washburn (who, if I recall, likes working fastballs up in the zone as well).
I'm pretty sure Washburn throws a 4-seam fastball and does like to work up in the zone.
And we can compare them, as they're set to start against each other. Hooray!
Also, problematically, Boof is 2nd-to-last in the AL, with an Infield Fly percentage of 5.5 (although he is a bit more of a ground ball pitcher).
That might be better phrased as "he needs to continue keeping his walks down." Current stats show Baker as having a better BB/9 rate than Santana, Bonser, Ponson, Garza, and Slowey--meaning the only starters with a better rate are Silva and Ortiz. In general, this last game notwithstanding, Baker has kept his walk rates down.
He can still get better, and it would only make him a more effective pitcher.
Ryan said on an interview I listened to that Baker can pith up in the zone and get away with it most of the time and that pitching up in the zone is part of what made hm the pitcher that he is.
If this is what the organization really believes, they might think about including that thought in their daily briefings with dicknbert.
I'm getting less and less patient with dick'n'bert.
Bremer actually thought Colon led the league in ERA when he won the Cy Young, even after he mentioned that Santana may have been robbed. Earth to Dick: If Colon led the league in ERA, and not just wins, there wouldn't have been a lot of controversy.
Idiots.
Ryan said on an interview I listened to that Baker can pitch up in the zone and get away with it most of the time and that pitching up in the zone is part of what made hm the pitcher that he is.
I tend to agree with that sentiment. I know Rick Anderson loves his 2-seamer and pitching low in the zone, but that style doesn't suit everyone.
I think he said in the same interview (well, at least the one I heard on Friday with Ryan and Chad Hartman) that right now, Baker can suceed by pitching up in the zone, but for long term sucess Baker needs to pitch lower in the strike zone because