Game 123: Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins

gamelog1.JPG ubelmann continues his exile from SBG Nation, so I'm filling in with today's Game Log post.

The Twins have a record of 13-47 in the American League leading 60 games that they have played where they have scored three or fewer runs, a .217 winning percentage. The average AL team is 9.4-38.1 in such games, meaning that Twins fans have been able to enjoy about 13 more of these games than the average team in the Junior Circuit. It also means that the Twins have a slightly better winning percentage in such games (league average is .198).

Recently, the Twins have played quite of few of these games -- in 13 of their last 16 games the Twins have scored three or fewer runs. In the other three they've scored 11, 11, and six runs, all wins. In those 13 games, the Twins are 3-10, a .231 clip -- just what you would expect. The Twins preach pitching and defense, pitching and defense, pitching and defense. But, the team has to score some runs or they just can't win. The everyday lineup is so thin that even when everyone is healthy there are about three or four huge holes in the lineup every day. When the final analysis of this team is written, it will be plain and simple. The Twins went into the season believing that if they could get good starting pitching they could win. And, after they jettisoned their unsuccessful reclamation projects, they got good starting pitching. But, the offense was void of power and that was their eventual undoing.

Today's game features Johan Santana v. Kevin Millwood (at least his name should start with a K). Millwood is making $11.2 million this year in the second year of a five year, $60 million contract and he has been underwhelming. He's sporting a fat 5.63 ERA, but his FIP (4.62) and xFIP (4.68) suggest that he's been a little unlucky. His line drives are down, his ground balls and popups are up, his home runs and strikeouts are steady. His walks are up almost one and a half per game, which accounts for an increase in his FIP, but big the even larger ERA seems to be attributable only to luck of the bad kind. If anyone can fix his bad luck, its the team he's facing today.

Johan has been pretty darned good again this year, although the one criticism that can be justly served up is his propensity to serve up the long ball. He's now giving up 1.39 HR/G, which is a high number indeed. His ground ball rate has also dropped dramatically to just 37.2%, which suggests that he's leaving a few pitches up-in-the-zone. I'm pretty sure that dicknbert, the foremost up-in-the-zone experts in all the land, will point that out today.

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