Hooray 13th shutout! Most in all of baseball!!
The Twins are currently in line to lead the league in shutouts, which would be the first time in franchise history they've ever done that. Those pesky Cardinals were shut out again today, so they remain hot on the Twins' heels, just one back.
When looking at the table below, I would especially like to point out 1965, when the Twins had the fewest shutouts in all of baseball. With 3 shutouts, they had half as many as the second-best team (Dodgers and Reds.) 15 teams that year had at least 10 shutouts, and the Mets led baseball with 22.
The Twins have 0 wins in their 455 shutouts. This is the second time this season that the Twins have been shutout with Santana on the mound--the other time came against the Indians and Fausto Carmona on May 17th.
| Year | SHO | Rank | Teams | Percentile |
| 2007 | 13 | 1 | 30 | 0% |
| 2006 | 14 | 3 | 30 | 7% |
| 2005 | 10 | 9 | 30 | 28% |
| 2004 | 4 | 23 | 30 | 76% |
| 2003 | 5 | 24 | 30 | 79% |
| 2002 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 45% |
| 2001 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 62% |
| 2000 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 14% |
| 1999 | 10 | 3 | 30 | 7% |
| 1998 | 10 | 7 | 30 | 21% |
| 1997 | 9 | 5 | 28 | 15% |
| 1996 | 5 | 20 | 28 | 70% |
| 1995 | 6 | 19 | 28 | 67% |
| 1994 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 7% |
| 1993 | 13 | 3 | 28 | 7% |
| 1992 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 74% |
| 1991 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 74% |
| 1990 | 14 | 6 | 28 | 19% |
| 1989 | 7 | 23 | 28 | 81% |
| 1988 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 80% |
| 1987 | 9 | 8 | 26 | 28% |
| 1986 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 28% |
| 1985 | 12 | 9 | 26 | 32% |
| 1984 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 36% |
| 1983 | 12 | 5 | 26 | 16% |
| 1982 | 9 | 13 | 26 | 48% |
| 1981 | 13 | 3 | 26 | 8% |
| 1980 | 12 | 9 | 26 | 32% |
| 1979 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 32% |
| 1978 | 11 | 13 | 26 | 48% |
| 1977 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 64% |
| 1976 | 13 | 13 | 24 | 52% |
| 1975 | 7 | 20 | 24 | 83% |
| 1974 | 10 | 17 | 24 | 70% |
| 1973 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35% |
| 1972 | 14 | 14 | 24 | 57% |
| 1971 | 12 | 11 | 24 | 43% |
| 1970 | 6 | 20 | 24 | 83% |
| 1969 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 70% |
| 1968 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 84% |
| 1967 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 68% |
| 1966 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 84% |
| 1965 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 100% |
| 1964 | 14 | 10 | 20 | 47% |
| 1963 | 12 | 9 | 20 | 42% |
| 1962 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 42% |
| 1961 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 29% |
(Note: I figured percentile as (rank-1)/(teams-1) so that having the most shutouts puts you at 0% and having the fewest shutouts puts you at 100%.)
I was also reminded of this quote from Santana after his 17 K game:
Especially the bullpen. Heh.
The Twins have 0 wins in their 455 shutouts.
I would like to know how to win whilst getting shutout.
We haven't figured it out yet, but if I know the 2007 Twins, they won't stop trying to find a way.
Breaking the club record (14) seems doable.
I put the O/U at 16.
It has really been a pathetic offensive season for the Twins--even worse than the lean 1990s. Then again, what do you expect when you have RonDL, Tyner, Punto and Cassilla hitting in succession in the order.
The Twins have 0 wins in their 455 shutouts.
Sad, but true.
I give ubelmann props for the snark.
Yes, but painful snark.
The shutouts are kind of a statistical anomaly. If Casilla just stays at second on a ball grounded well in front of him (Who decided to bring back Luis Rivas?) the Twins would have scored on Morneau's single later in the inning and the Twins would have lost 5-1. The 2005 team was much worse offensively than this team (at least for the full season) and only had 10 shutouts. Last year, they were much better offensively and tied a team record with 14 shutouts. More often than not, the games are not close in shutouts so it would have made little difference if they managed to avoid a shutout.
I think it would be more relevant if it was possible to look at how many times the Twins have lost when they have allowed three or fewer runs. In other words, when they wasted very good pitching, etc. In 2005, the Twins wasted a ton of good pitching when they led the league in ERA and barely finished over .500. And of course, this team has lost at least four (that I recall) 1-0 games. The Twins have not been worse than expected in one-run games (19-19), but they have tended to be much better than that under Gardy because of the excellent bullpens they have had.
The Twins have lost 12 games in which they allowed 3 or fewer runs. In 2005, they lost 22 such games, including a maddening 11 games by a 2-1 score. There are a couple of issues here. The 2005 offense was worse overall, I think, but the 2005 pitching was also better.
The Twins are 49-12 in such games this year. In 2005, they were 54-22 in such games. So they played a lot more games (probably by the end of the season) in 2005 where they gave up low run totals -- better pitching, but they lost a greater percentage of those games (worse offense).
In 2007, the Twins have scored three or fewer runs 65 times. In 2005, it was 70 times. This team seems to be well within range of catching that total. That speaks to the inability of this team to mount consistent offensive threats, the issue that GreekHouse has discussed in his piranhas v. sharks pieces.
The shutouts are kind of a statistical anomaly.
I tend to agree with this. My main point here was that I really didn't know how many shutouts previous editions of the team had, so I went and looked it up. It's certainly not the be-all, end-all of how bad an offense is.
On the other hand, GreekHouse has provided us with evidence that teams with singles-based offenses tend to get shut out more often than teams with similar scoring averages that rely more on home runs. In addition, just thinking about the way the current lineup is constructed, it's not hard to see how it could get shut down. Amongst Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer each has had to sit out some of the season. On days when one of those three sits out, the Twins have had basically three real offensive threats. Pitch around those guys in critical situations and get to the easy outs. The Twins have also made so many mistakes on the basepaths that I don't think you just write off Casilla's blunder today as a freak occurrence.
Overall, I guess I think that what we're seeing here is some combination of a statistical anomaly and a result of a severely flawed offense.
Even my piranhas are getting shut out in only 7% of their games with a slightly worse offense as opposed to this team getting shut out in about 10%. Any time you deal with sample sizes this small, statistical anomalies are more common.
On the other hand, ubelmann brings up a good point about the Twins offense that I will likely mention in SVP4. Having a more balanced lineup will also create more consistency in your scoring--reducing the number of shutouts and one-run games. In essence, the Twins will have several innings per game where they have very little chance of scoring (for instance an inning where White, Tyner and Punto are due up). Then, it only requires a slightly below average day from the rest of our hitters in order to get shut out in the rest of the innings. There is also a higher chance of a big inning during the innings where all our good hitters are due up. If the lineup is more balance, we will flatten out the distribution of runs--resulting in fewer shutouts and fewer blowouts. The principle is exactly the same as SVP.
I'd like to (somehow) see these yearly numbers adjusted by the league's scoring for the particular year. That 1965 total is even more impressive when you realize that scoring back then was much lower than it is nowdays.
When you have a little power in the lineup, all it takes is one guy to spoil a shutout. Not gonna happen with these 2007 Twins.
That's what the percentile number is listed for. It's a rough adjustment, but it gives you an idea where a team ranks amongst its peers.