Jose Morales, Suspect
September 7th, 2007 by ubelmann
By now, you've likely heard that Jose Morales has been added to the 40-man roster and called up to be with the Twins. The Twins are pretty banged up at the catcher position, so from a logistical standpoint, it makes sense to bring up another warm body. So this move makes sense, but I find it completely underwhelming.
Over his entire minor league career, Morales has hit .279/.329/.372. Given what seem to be injury troubles in the past, he's advanced reasonably quickly. Over 1485 career AB, he has 271 strikeouts and 98 walks. Based on his career numbers, there's no real reason to expect him to hit major league pitching.
Morales had a pretty decent year at the plate this year, but nothing that's all that far out of line with his performance going into this year. Before 2007, Morales had a .093 ISO, and this year, he had a .089 ISO. Before 2007, Morales had a .056 BB/PA rate and in 2007 he had a .074 BB/PA rate. Morales cut his strikeout rate nearly in half (.188 to .106 SO/PA) and got a few more singles to drop in (.268 to .313 batting average.)
It wasn't so long ago that we saw someone cut his strikeout rate and raise his batting average. That didn't last very long, though, and I'm skeptical that Morales' improvement will last much longer. So Morales' future basically seems to depend on how well he can defend. If he can play really good defense, he could be a typical no-hit, good-glove catcher and if he can't, he'll spend the vast majority of his career in the minors.
The Twins have brought up a number of guys like this so far this year, and I sometimes wonder myself why I bothering devoting so many words to guys like this. I guess in this case, it's because Morales is one of those guys that some people will point to when saying "see, minor league numbers don't mean anything," because all most people will hear about Morales' minor league numbers is that he hit .300 this year. I mean, nothing matters other than batting average, home runs, and RBI, right?
This entry was posted by ubelmann on Friday, September 7th, 2007 at 3:04 am and is filed under Guest Writers, MLB, Minnesota Twins, ubelmann. It is one of 640 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.
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CarterHayes replied on September 7, 2007 at 4:42:56 am
I'm starting to think that "the tools of ignorance" means I shouldn't pay attention to who the Twins have behind the plate for the next week.
The other day, before I heard Redmond was out of action, I was watching the Brewers play the Astros and feeling a bit snarky because Eric Munson was
catchingbehind the plate. I should have kept my mouth shut.Rhubarb_Runner replied on September 7, 2007 at 6:34:35 am
I sometimes wonder myself why I bothering devoting so many words to guys like this
1. It keeps your mind off of the Twins' play this season
2. Because, you know, you're ubelmann
Whiffers replied on September 7, 2007 at 8:10:17 am
He should be better than Heintz, right? Or at least as good? I'll take that at this point.
One of the unfortunate things about this year and the shallow minor league system is that people get way too excited about a player like Morales, Buscher, or even Garrett freaking Jones since they might have hit .300 or a few out of the park in the minors.
Moss replied on September 7, 2007 at 8:16:23 am
Yeah, Morales basically aspires to be Jason Tyner offensively. Just what the Twins need.
Diggity Dino replied on September 7, 2007 at 8:58:30 am
I don't claim to be much of an expert, but what is Morales's defensive reputation? If he is a solid defender I don't mind his hitting too much.
Also for a point of reference:
Morales career minor league, up through age 24: 1489 AB, .279/.326/.370 OPS .696 98/271 BB/K
Mike Redmond career minor league, up through age 27: 1394 AB, .263/.311/.337 OPS .648.
So it seems that at about 3 years younger per stop, Morales is a better minor league hitter than Redmond was, based on about .15 points of BA, similar walks, and slightly more power. Redmond has translated that line to a major league .717 OPS and a 90 OPS+, which I would think would be acceptable from a backup catcher if the defense is there.
Diggity Dino replied on September 7, 2007 at 9:00:29 am
Yeah, Morales basically aspires to be Jason Tyner offensively. Just what the Twins need.
Since Jason Tyner offense is roughly equal to Mike Redmond offense (around 90 OPS+), I'd take it from a backup catcher position, since I don't think anyone is complaining about Redmond's offense (the only complaining comes from the fact that the backup catcher's offense is used in the DH spot way too often).
SBG replied on September 7, 2007 at 9:02:30 am
Let's put it this way... I'll take a look-see at Morales over Heintz in the lineup every day of the week and twice on Sundays (you know, for when they used to play double headers).
Banjo replied on September 7, 2007 at 9:44:28 am
There is much man-love for Heintz in the organization for whatever reason. I think I heard they (gardy, liddle, ryan) all actully cried the last few times they sent him back down.
SBG replied on September 7, 2007 at 9:55:46 am
What this team needs are some a-holes that can hit. You'll note that I've not said that much about Hunter this year -- 'cause he's hit the freaking ball. He can pull a Mandelaro all he wants when he's piling up extra base hits.
Banjo replied on September 7, 2007 at 10:03:19 am
Yes..too much focus on 'character' and not enough focus on talent.
twayn replied on September 7, 2007 at 3:39:47 pm
That's a very astute observation. I wrote an article titled "The Cost of Character" on this very subject that appears in the most recent edition of GameDay.
SBG replied on September 7, 2007 at 3:57:45 pm
I'll have to pick up a copy on convention day. You coming, twayn?
Rhubarb_Runner replied on September 7, 2007 at 9:42:51 am
What are Morales' splits? Would he be above average from a platoon standpoint? This is where RedDawg has any chance to excel -- that is, if he were used properly as a platoon.
brianS replied on September 7, 2007 at 10:27:03 am
splits this year
vs. lefties: 289/301/344, 13:2 K:BB in ~92 PA
vs. righty: 318/385/416, 31:28 in ~314 PA
2006 New Britain
vs left: 187/271/307, 11:4 in 86 PA
vs right: 222/278/313, 45:15 in 196 PA
Need I go on? He sucked equally left and right in 2006.
Moss replied on September 7, 2007 at 10:53:58 am
Don't get Moss wrong -- he might be just fine with that production in that role. But he's no savior, and the offense is in big trouble if any of Redmond/Morales/Heinz has to fill the role of Mauer for any length of time next year.
Moss is simply lamenting the lack of any ray of hope in the high minor league system. Moss is also peeved at people who comment on LaVelle's blog or such place that the Twins need to call up all the guys who had decent years at AAA, as if they will solve the problems in the organization.
brianS replied on September 7, 2007 at 11:16:36 am
Prior to this season, his minor league line was 268/316/362. I suppose if he could duplicate that in the majors (with solid defense), he'd be a good backup catcher.
ubelmann replied on September 7, 2007 at 12:08:46 pm
I suppose if he could duplicate that in the majors (with solid defense), he’d be a good backup catcher.
With an emphasis on the "solid defense," I think. Maybe Morales can hit that, maybe he can't, but the only reason Mike Redmond (for instance) ever got a chance in the first place was his defense. Most teams are willing to sacrifice offense with their backup catcher, but more or less demand someone who is good defensively.
twayn replied on September 7, 2007 at 3:53:32 pm
Well, I wouldn't expect solid defense behind the plate from Morales just yet. He's a converted infielder and is still developing his defensive chops as a catcher, according to what I've read. That could explain the reluctance to call him up (that and hitting payroll budgets). It would be nice for Morales to get some ML at bats for the sake of his development, since Heintz is a really just a career minor league player. But in terms of this season's outcome, it makes no difference at this point who is behind the plate while Mauer and Redmond heal.