Player A: .280/.318/.408/.726 77 OPS+
Player B: .261/.306/.479/.785 102 OPS+
Player C: .250/.312/.451/.763 97 OPS+
Player D: .271/.330/.475/.805 105 OPS+
Player E: .269/.337/.452/.789 107 OPS+
Player F: .265/.323/.433/.756 97 OPS+
Player A is Torii Hunter in his 24 year old season.
Player B is Torii Hunter in his 25 year old season.
Player C is Torii Hunter in his 27 year old season, in the first year of his current contract, which has paid him $44 million over five years.
Player D is Torii Hunter in his 28 year old season, in the second year of his $44 million contract.
Player E is Torii Hunter in his 29 year old season, in the third year of his $44 million contract.
I skipped a year in there, Hunter's 26 year old season, when he broke out, became an All-Star, and garnered his huge contract. As Hunter's 20s played out, it became clear that the 26 year old season was an aberration and not an indication that he would become a superstar. For the rest of his twenties (skipping his first couple of years), Hunter was just a little better than a league average hitter. His last two seasons have been better, true.
Who is player F?
Player F is Jason Kubel, 2007, who is coming off a big day, but still doesn't play every day and gets pinch hit for by Rondelle White. Kubel is considered a bust by many people. Kubel is 25 years old.
You can rest assured that Kubel won't be playing today. He didn't do any of the "little things" to help the club win yesterday. Did you see him try any bunts? Moss didn't think so.
Wow! I'm starting to read your responses in your avatar voice. Heh!
Can we start calling Kubel "Doomsday Device"??
"What good is a Doomsday Device if you don't tell anyone about it?!?"
“What good is a Doomsday Device if you don’t
tell anyone about itplay him against lefties?!?â€fixed that for you, Rhu_Ru.
hey, I'm quoting movies here -- don't be putting words in my mouth.
OPS+ isn't adjusted for a player's position, so there is going to be a difference in the value of Hunter's production in a "defensve position" against the value of Kubel's at a corner outfield position.
Numbers for the Major Leagues in 2007
LF OPS - .799
CF OPS - .762
RF OPS - .803
I am not arguing that Kubel is a bust. I'm just not 100% on-board with this comparison.
As Hunter’s 20s played out, it became clear that the 26 year old season was an aberration
Except that from that season on, Hunter has had 3 seasons of OPS+ greater than 110 (counting 2007), and 3 seasons of OPS+ less than 110. He certainly wasn't able to consistently reproduce his breakout year, but I'm not sure I would label it an aberration.
His OPS in the 26 year old season was 126. At that time, his last three seasons were 77, 102, 126. It seemed like he was going to really be a star. The next three years? 97, 105, 107. Prior to this season, he'd never even sniffed a 120 OPS+ again.
Yes, I'm aware of the defensive aspect -- I wasn't including that in my analysis. What I was trying to say that Kubel's 2007 year at the plate pretty much fit in with what Hunter produced when he was in his 20s, except for one year that was somewhat of an aberration during that stretch of seasons in Hunter's career.
I don't want to pretend like defense doesn't matter. I'm just talking about Kubel's offensive production.
Kubel’s 2007 year at the plate pretty much fit in with what Hunter produced when he was in his 20s
I agree with that conclusion, but there are a couple of things I'd like to add (granted, you probably didn't want to get too far into it).
One thing is the defensive positions, another is experience. Coming into this year Kubel had just over 300 PA with the Twins, while going into his age 25 year Hunter had already had two seasons with more than 300 PA.
If Kubel can produce like he has in his first season as a "regular" then it's almost more impressive than the Kubel/Hunter comparison makes it seem. (Kubel isn't a regular in the same sense that Hunter was, comparing those two age 25 seasons, Kubel has about 400 PA, compared to Hunter's prorated 530 PA).
Is there any evidence that Hunter was also "jerked around"? Since this was the pre-blog era anyone remember if there was anyone compaining about it?
Hunter did get a mid-season demotion to the minors in 2000. At the time, he was hitting .207/.243/.300. He stayed in the minors for just over two months, coming back to Minnesota on July 29. From there to the end of the season, he played just about every single day, and he responded, hitting .332/.371/.485. From that point forward, Hunter has been a regular in the lineup. The manager of the Twins in 2000 was Tom Kelly, and although he wasn't exactly warm and fuzzy with youngsters, he did put Hunter in the lineup and kept him there.
Kubel has hit .294/.360/.497 since July 1, which is pretty darned similar to the line Hunter had in his post demotion call up. Kubel has missed 16 games since then (was he hurt at all? I don't remember) and has been pinch hit for by a guy with a -10 VORP and a zero percent chance of returning to this team next year (unless Terry Ryan is flat out crazy).
Hard to understand the Rondell White at-bat, other than he had hit a home run on Friday?? Do you think that he would be so cheap in '08 they would consider a 3rd year?
God help us if he signs for more than the league minimum. God help us then, too.
If we offer to host a retirement party, do you think that would help Rondell to make the right decision?
Kubel has been pinch hit for by White three times since Aug. 31. In addition to the game he missed completely, he's been inserted as a pinch hitter five times, meaning that 21 times since July 1, Kubel's name has not been written into the starting lineup (in 63 games). I think he was hurt and missed five of those games. So that makes 16 times in 58 games that he was available and not used, in favor of a guppy or the rock that is Rondelle.
It's just Gardy playing the percentages baby!
In my honest opinion, a better comparison for Jason Kubel is probably Michael Cuddyer. I guess the biggest similarity between those two is the fact that they both were jerked around by the organization during their early years with the team. I have been a believer in Kubel for a long time now. A guy that rakes as much, and as well as he did in the minors is going to be a quality major league player.
It just sucks that he had his knee blown up which seemed to have put things to a halt for quite awhile there.
It just amazes me how guys like Jason Tyner & Rondell White continue to steal AB's from him though.
You are preaching to the choir on Mike C. Last spring, Gardy said on his radio show that Cuddy was not an every day player in the big leagues. By the end of the season, he had 20+ homers and 100+ RBIs. What vision, what foresight, what brilliance!
What a manager!
BTW, I emailed you again.
Got it, thanks! Looking forward to the Convention!
Do you need anything else from me?
Anything...I mean anything...
I'll be contacting convention goers via e-mail soon.
I'm starting to like Kubel too. I think he could bring a lot to this lineup next year as our regular LF. However, I have a thought in the back of my mind that Kubel will ended getting traded to secure a deal with another Ponson or Batista like player to fill in our gaps. It would be about par for the course.
I do not understand why a team that is so dependent on youth refuses to play them. I do not get it. If Gardenhire wants vetern talent, then he needs to go to a large market team.
Kubel has 39 XBH to Mauer's 32 in roughly the same number of ABs, for a .025 advantage in SLP. (Mauer of course has a few more walks.) There is no reason to be displeased with Kubel, except in the fact that he's only going to have fewer than 450 PA. And that's not his fault.
Man are we going to be thin on right handed hitting next year! If/When Hunter doesn't come back, might we see a semi-legitimate move to obtain a right handed batter?
TR stated on Chad Hartman's show the other day that a RH hitter is his priority. He is finally acknowledging that he doesn't need pitchers, only hitters.