Before my time…
Posted by ubelmann on Tuesday, September 11th, 2007 at 2:25 am
Chris Jaffe was running through some Baseball Reference splits, and he mentioned something I found absolutely crazy:
For instance, you can look up how many times they tried to pull off triple steals. After all, the only way to do it is to have the bases loaded, and the splits pages give SB & CS for every variation of bases occupied. These teams were the bravest of them all:
Team SB CS SBA 1969 MIN 12 2 14 1958 DET 3 2 5 1970 MON 3 1 4 1962 LAD 3 1 4 1984 CHC 3 1 4 1972 BAL 3 1 4
If I'm reading that table correctly, the Twins attempted a triple steal six times in one season. (3 steals per success and 1 CS in the event that someone gets caught. It's possible they give credit for stealing, for instance, 2B if the runner going home gets caught, but I'm not sure.) Again, if I'm reading the table correctly, the next highest number of attempts in a season was three and no one else has more than two.
Set aside for a moment the issue of whether or not this was a good strategy--that's crazy! I can't imagine witnessing such a feat in today's game. Looking through some of their game logs is equally crazy. For instance, take the bottom of the third on May 18th, 1969.
Cesar Tovar singled to start the madness. Then with Carew up to bat, Mickey Lolich balked--Tovar to second. Then Tovar stole third, and Carew subsequently walked. Then you get a double steal with both runners advancing successfully--with Harmon Killebrew batting.
With Harmon still up to bat, Carew stole third. Still not satisfied, Rod stole home for good measure. Killer had a 179 OPS+ that year. You've either got to be criminally insane, completely brilliant, dumb as a rock, or all of the above to take that kind of risk with the big fella at the plate. (Bill Freehan, behind the plate, was apparently a pretty good catcher, too. He threw out about a third of the runners trying to steal and won the GG at catcher that year. At the moment, I can't seem to find Lolich's SB/CS splits, so maybe he wasn't very good at holding runners on. Or something.)
Carew stole 18 bases that year, and 6 7 of those were home! Tovar and Carew must have been a lot of fun to watch at the top of that lineup.


I knew that Carew had the six steals of home. What I didn't know is that he had only 12 other steals. Amazing.
I seem to remember that Lolich was very stealable.
Billy Martin love chaos on the basepaths, regardless of the batter. That team had some great baserunners (Tovar doesn't get enough due), and pretty smart, too.
Carew actually would have had seven steals of home, but one late-season call clearly was incorrect. I was at a game in Anaheim in the late 80s when Dazzle stole home; it's a great sight to see - wish more people were gutsy enough to try it.
In 1969, runners stole 24 of 32 bases successfully on Lolich (although he picked off 7 of them).
For his career, runners were actually 161 out of 311 with 58 pickoffs which has to be very hard to run against (nearly 50% caught stealing).
Okay, I must be mixing up my husky Tigers pitchers of yor. Maybe it was Hiller or someone. Thanks for the clarification.
Of course it's crazy to steal home with the Killer at the plate. But then, Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition.
so, maybe crazy like a fox.
The perfect manager doesn't manage by the book. He manages a little off the book to make sure to keep the opposition on their toes.
Amen!
July 25th, 1930. The A's pull off two triple steals in the same game successfully! Not only that, it was a laugher of a game as they defeated the Indians 14-1. Can you imagine the uproar these days if a team was insulted by being triple stealed on in a blowout?
April 9 (game 2 of season): Carew doubles leading off the 5th; advances to 3rd on fly out by Oliva; stole home with Killebrew up and one out.
April 19: in the 7th, Carew singles with one out, Uhlaender to 3rd; Oliva grounds out to 1st, Uhlaender scores, Carew to third; Carew steals home with Killebrew up and 2 out
April 30: in the 5th with runners on the corners and no outs, Carew grounds into FC at second, advances to 2nd on E-6; Oliva walks; Killebrew walks; with bases loaded and Nettles up, Carew steals home in a triple steal
May 18: the afore-mentioned, consecutive steals of home by Tovar and Carew with Killebrew up and no outs
May 31: Carew is caught stealing for the first time (picked off 2nd by Garry Roggenburk)
June 4: 8th, Carew singles leading off; Oliva grounds out to 2nd, Carew to 2nd; Killebrew IBB; Quilici FO, Carew to 3b; Killebrew steals 2nd; Roseboro walks; with Cardenas batting, triple steal; Cardenas then singles to third, but Roseboro out trying to advance (?? and Killebrew doesn't score??? huh?)
June 16: 1st, Carew reaches on E-3, Uhlaender to third with no outs; Oliva singles, Uhlaender scores, Carew to 2nd; with Killebrew batting, double steal, Carew to 3b; with Killebrew batting, double steal, Carew scores.
July 16 (1st game of double header): 2nd; with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, Carew FC-6, Hall to 3b, Uhlaender out at 2nd; Reese Ks; Killebrew walks; Manuel walks, Hall scores, Carew to 3rd; with Roseboro batting and 2 out, triple steal.
Sept 10: 3rd; Carew singles leading off; with Killebrew batting and no out, Carew steals 2nd; Killebrew walks; Oliva GO 2-3, both runners advance; Allison IBB; with Renick up and one out, Carew CS trying to steal home
btw, that looks like seven steals of home in 8 attempts.
Okay, then an 8th attempt (in late August?) was mis-called an out. I'll have to find where I read that.
according to the game logs, he had only one steal attempt in August (CS 2nd in the 1st inning on Aug 1)
Perhaps you are thinking of September 10th?
Yeah, I knew it was late season, but didn't remember it being that late. I know Carew was pretty peeved, because he should have had the single season record all his own if this one had been called correctly.
Also, turns out, would have tied the score.
Good call. It was getting late, and I missed that game when browsing through the gamelogs. I'll update the post accordingly.
Interestingly (or not), retrosheet has this note on Carew's June 16th steal:
But no note for Carew's July 16th steal:
(emphasis mine)
But looking in other corners of the interwebs, baseball-almanac.com has Ty Cobb with the AL record at 8, but that was out of 61 total steals and an unknown number of CS. While it looks like Carew didn't have the record, to have such a large percentage of his steals be steals of home plate is certainly unique.
It was my understanding that Carew and Cobb are tied with the AL (and MLB) single season record with 7. I'd post back-up info on that, except that I'm already spending too much non-quality work time today (sorry).
Wow. That's freaking crazy. And this was Billy's first managerial job. The guy was something else.
I've actually been researching the 1969 season for awhile and Martin gave away all sorts of outs, as well. At some point, I would love to either do a SABR presentation or maybe even a book about it.
Any evidence that Running Crazy can stress out the pitcher and make them worse?
Well, Martin thrived on making every pitch feel like a war to the opposition so he did everything possible to make them panic and outthink themselves. I have to believe that it did help the team gain an edge, but I have no idea how to measure it.
Have you read this, Will? It's only a chapter, but I thought it was a pretty good read.
Also, here is a list of Billy Martin biographies, compiled by Derek Zumsteg, that might interest you.
I have read 2 of the 3 bios and Zumstag's chapter. Martin is such an interesting guy.
I'm formally requesting some kind of series evaluating the managers throughout Twins history. Other than some memories of the Ray Miller era (and being alive, if not particularly baseball conscious, during the Billy Gardner era), it's been TK and Gardy at the helm during my time. There's a heck of a lot I don't know about the guys who managed the great teams of the 1960s and the bleak years before I came around.
What's to know - they were all second guessed, called idiots or worse, they played favorites, they weren't strategic enough, they abused (mishandled) the kids, they were too easy on veterans, they were too arrogant, they couldn't make up the line-up right, they got outmanaged by the other guy, they mismanaged the bullpen, the jerked the starters around, they were too loyal to their assistant coaches, the blabbed to the media, they didn't blab enough to the media, they hated stats, they manaage too close to the book and aren't innovative enough, thy're too loosy goosey.
That about wraps it up.
and one of 'em was named Cookie...
Yeah, I kind of figured there was some of that considering it hasn't exactly been a lifetime appointment. Still, after reading what Billy Martin was up to in 1969, I'm convinced there's enough interesting material in Twins managerial history to make a pretty darn good blog series.
What you seem to suggest is that one of the younger members of the Nation is better qualified to actually author such a series, considering it's rather hard to be biased against Cookie, or Mauch, or Quilici if you weren't around to throw stuff at the radio or TV when he had a brain-fart. Then again, the input of the more seasoned members of the Nation is every bit as valuable as a lack of bias from a research standpoint.
Mauch favored his nephew and started him at shortstop.
Yeah, but if my nephew was a young shortstop with a 122 OPS+, I'd probably start him, too. Particularly when my next best option was Larry Wolfe.
Well, okay.
plus, he got him cheap.
Bert and a Dead Man Walking for Smalley, Cubbage, a Bill Singer rental, 22-year old RH prospect Jim Gideon and $250K in 1976.
I am thoroughly convinced that manager bashing is the 2nd national pastime (at least in the baseball blogosphere.) I am continually suprised how many idiots have risen to the pinnacle of their profession.
It would be a great series, regardless if it was penned by one or more of the geezers and or the young guns who roam these halls.
I am continually suprised how many idiots have risen to the pinnacle of their profession.
It's just the Peter Principle in action. An idiot might even get to be President if he has the means and connections.
I think baseball creates a particular problem for itself because it's essentially still an Old Boys' Club. To be a manager, first you need to have been a pro ballplayer who made some friends in high places. Preferably, you're a Catcher or middle infielder, and they'd rather you're not a Pitcher. You could have a degree in management, a deep understanding of statistics, game theory, and baseball, and a great way with people--it really doesn't matter. You're never managing the Twins or any other big league team unless you've played some pro ball.
Then you either need to have high name recognition so someone will give you a chance to manage shortly after you retire from playing, or perhaps the personality for broadcasting which might raise your profile, or else you should be willing to spend years managing in the minors in hopes that your organization might eventually promote you to the top instead of hiring some big name, while waiting for some famous retreads to get a 3rd or 4th crack at the job before some club is ready to try an unknown.
If you're really, really lucky, when you do finally get that 1st chance, your hiring will coincide with the rise of a crop of young talent that's just about ready to break out. More likely, you're the third choice of some cheap or desperate club in deep rebuilding mode, and you hope that you can do just enough with the team so that your reputation isn't permanenty stained by the stinking mess. If the team shows some spark of improvement under your watch, maybe you'll get added to the pool of retreads after you're fired. But if you happen to be Cito Gaston, I don't know what to tell you.
Is it really any wonder that a lot of teams actually are managed by unqualified idiots? What exactly are Ron Gardenhire's qualifications to manage, anyway?
He played pro ball, badly. He has a gregarious personality. He paid his dues managing in the minors, before TK asked him to be the Twins' 3rd base coach, where he spent a decade hitting groundball practice and deciding whether to wave runners home. Finally, he was fortunate that the top job became available with an org that preferred to hire from within, when Paul Molitor didn't want it because Contraction hung over the club, just as a homegrown crop of young talent was on the rise and the dominant team in the division was scrapping down for a rebuild. That about sums it up, doesn't it?
I second everything Frightwig said. The system isn't set up to get the most talented manager.
If you need a good first hand account of the workings of baseball - Ball Four is an excellent source.
Right on. Every other sport has coaches that were not pro players. Baseball? They're non-existent. Hell, even Tony LaRussa, who is sort of the odd-man-out if you lined up all the managerial backgrounds, was even a ballplayer.
Let's examine basketball. If basketball worked like baseball, Trent Tucker would be coaching an NBA team and Flip Saunders would be lucky to have a booth job. And no one EVER would have heard of Lawrence Frank, because he'd be on the outside looking in.
That being said, management in pro sports is so messed up anyway. In what other profession is the manager-level talent paid a whole lot less than those he manages? How is that supposed to work?
In what other profession is the manager-level talent paid a whole lot less than those he manages? How is that supposed to work?
I think it makes sense for sports, though. How many people can do what Alex Rodriguez does? How many people can do what Ron Gardenhire does? If management started demanding salaries on the same scale as the players, you can bet that teams would start going outside the industry to find managers. The players wouldn't like it at first, but eventually they would deal with it. Who likes their boss anyway?
Good stuff 'wig. Wish I'd found yer blog before you put it on the shelf.
Moss isn't suggesting that it should be done differently, rather that it is a system that by its nature isn't really workable. If RG were getting paid more than Johan, Moss would puke.
It's also interesting (to me, anyway) to consider that in basketball and football, it's not uncommon for head coaches to have coached in college at some point in their careers, either as a head coach or an assistant. When is the last time a manager was hired who had been a college baseball coach?
I'd be all over that. Might make for a great off-season series of posts, maybe multi-Citizen, even. I know at least 2 of my SI issues deal with former Twins managers (Lavaghetto and Martin), so I could post those.
If you're interested in making it multi-Citizen, off-season should work fairly well for my school schedule. Not sure what I bring to the table, but if there's enough interest in this as a series, I'll pitch in with whatever I've got.
BTW, herzliche Glückwünsche zum Geburtstag from one Virgo to another, Rhu_Ru.
Vielen dank, Herr CH!
gesundheit!
wow. I now have a new goal at a baseball game. To see a triple steal. Punto, Tyner and Bartlett.
Isn't it challenging enough to hope for them reaching base consecutively??
I dont think I have ever seen a double steal
but it would be cool
I think teams should try to steal home more. Who cares if it works about. 00006% of the time. Add some excitement at the end of a drab season!
Moss isn't sold on the steal of home, but here's one that SHOULD be used more often by the Twins -- squeeze bunt (safety, or possibly suicide).
Gardy loves to bunt when he needs to get a runner from second to third with no outs. But he hasn't used it to get a runner in, in Moss' recollection. Not even in a situation where it would make perfect sense. (Tyner bunted the other day to get a run in, but he was bunting for a hit as there were 2 outs.)
There have been lots of opportunities, but Gardy doesn't have that in the 'tool-box. Strikeout-throwout DP? Yes. Squeeze bunt? No.
Did TK use the squeeze bunt much?
Dunno...Moss wasn't around from '94 to '01 and doesn't really recall.
Nevertheless, for THIS offense, there have been times when it would have been a good call but Gardy has not done it at all this year, as far as Moss knows.
My recollection is that TK didn't bunt a whole lot, period. He did use the squeeze once in a while, but not very often.
can't answer that one, but here are the SH by year numbers (and AL rank in runs scored) under TK and RG, respectively, starting with TK's first full season
again, FWIW.
Bill James, in one of his first Abstracts, described Martin's running game with the A's as resembling a big green and gold pinwheel. I thought that was poetic. (This entry confirms that I've officially entered my senile years, remembering minutia from decades past.)