I was reading the Twins' Notes tonight, and things were going pretty much as usual...and then BAM!
According to Baseball Prospectus' Value over Replacement Player (VORP) statistic, Santana's 58.6 mark betters every pitcher but one. Sabathia, who leads the Majors in innings pitched (220), leads all American Leaguers with a 60.2 mark.
VORP? On the Twins' official site?
Thank you, Conor Nicholl, for trusting your readers not to writhe in disgust at the mention of a statistic that may be unknown to them.
I liked the quote that followed the above passage:
"If you laid them out there on a line and picked you who we going to start a new team with and pick five or six of the best, I guarantee most people would take Johan Santana No. 1 -- and there are certainly a lot of good ones out there," Gardenhire said.
I don't necessarily think that Santana has done anything to separate himself from the top tier in terms of performance over the course of this last season, but if you ask me who the best pitcher in baseball is, my answer is still Johan Santana.
It hasn't been an historic season for Santana, but even still, he's arguably the best pitcher in the league this year -- or at the very least, in the conversation.
Conor Nicholl, society of professional journalists award winner 2006. Looks like he's probably under 30 years old. I suspect a combination of inertia and youth will drive mainstream baseball reporting more toward your liking. That and SBG bludgeoning TJ with a candlestick in the study.
Better Journalism Through Attrition
The young guys aren't embarrassed to read the blogs and learn something (or steal it).
Without really looking into it,
Seabass* would be my CY vote right now.
*or Carsten Charles, I never know what to call him snarkily. He's "Seabass" in my head, even though that's a nickname for Sebastian, which is separate from Sabathia.
It's nice to see a beat writer use sabermetrics to show that Santana is still one of the best in the league, even if he's not getting any Cy talk. Now let's see if he has the nerve to use the metrics to show his readers why Punto's fielding in no way can actually justify his continued inclusion in the regular lineup.
You know, its not terribly likely, but I think there is a definite chance that Santana could end the year completely deserving of a Cy Young, both on VORP type metrics as well as "sportswriter" metrics.
He likely has 4 starts left. If he can get a win in 3 of them, he'll finish with 18. That should be within shouting range of the leaders, who will likely be at 20-21 (of course, the 20-win mark is "magical" so this will hurt him).
He is 2nd in Ks, but given that Bedard is out for the year, he should easily pass him. Kazmir is 4 back, but it seems likely that Santana will end up leading the league.
He is 3rd in ERA, but both Haren and Escobar have been struggling lately (Haren's ERA has risen 0.50 in his past 5 starts, Escobar has given up 8 ER in his last 8.1 IP). With some solid starts, if he can wind up with an ERA at 3.00 or so, he could lead the league in that category as well.
He is currently 5th in IP, and will probably end 4th or 5th. Sabathia is the only legitimate Cy candidate ahead of him.
He leads the league in WHIP, which seems to be gaining some promenence in the media. Unless he has some significant struggles from here on out (which would negate this whole conversation), he'll lead the league in that category as well.
So it seems that with a solid finish to the year, he could end up #1 in Ks, #1 in ERA, #1 in WHIP, #4 in IP, and 18 wins (likely somewhere around a tie for 4th). Combined, that seems like a runaway Cy Young candidate to me, even if it is a down-year for Santana.
Although, maybe he'd be cheaper to re-sign this offseason if he isn't coming off another Cy Young victory?
Also, I wonder what the closest anyone has previously gotten to a feat Santana could pull off this year - leading the league in ERA and leading in HR allowed.
This is the point I was making yesterday. I think Johan is in a 3-way tie for WHIP (1.06), and leads or is close to the lead in BA and OBP against, too. He'll have a good shot at leading or near-leading in just about every great stat except W and W-L%.
It's going to take some stumbling by Sabbthia and Beckett, for sure, as well as a really strong finish by Johan.
I don't think it really matters what Santana does the rest of the season. Sportswriters by nature like a fresh story, and Johan is old news.
This hurt Pedro Martinez, for example, near the end of his peak run, as well. Look at Pedro in 2002: 20-4, 2.26 ERA, 236 K in 199.1 IP, leading the league in strikeouts, ERA, adjusted ERA, WHIP, H/9, K/9, and K/BB. Barry Zito won the award because he had 23 Wins and was a fresh story.
The next year, Pedro had a similar season, except he finished with "only" a 14-4 record to go with a 2.22 ERA and 206 K in 186.2 IP, leading the league in ERA, adjusted ERA, WHIP, H/9, and K/9, ranking 2nd in strikeouts. Roy Halladay handily won the Cy Young (26/28 votes) with a higher ERA (3.25) and WHIP (1.07) and fewer strikeouts (204), but he had 22 Wins, more IP (266), and he was a fresh story. Pedro finished third in the vote, behind Halladay and Esteban Loaiza in his shining career year with the White Sox.
The rest of his career, Johan is going to be unfairly judged against his own past peaks. Unless he does something novel or completely sets himself apart in a given year, he'll have trouble winning another Cy Young.
What he has to do is win 23 games or at least lead the league in wins.
He'll get no love from the local voters, as Top Jimmy informed his listeners a week and a half ago that Santana is "not pitching great" this year.
just taking a quick glance at baseball-reference's year-by-year leaderboards, it appears this feat has never happened
I could have told you ahead of time that it's never been done. Question would be, who has been the closest?
Denny McLain gave up 31 HR and had an ERA of 1.96 in 1968. The 31 was Major League leading and his ERA was 4th (Luis Tiant had a 1.60)
McLain was the MVP and Cy Young winner that year
Yeah, the only real chance to find it I would think would have to be the '60s before the mound came down. 31 seems like a lot (now days), but they pitched a lot more innings back then, too.
GOT IT.
John Candelaria, NL 1977. 1st in ERA, tied for 1st in HR allowed (29). He was 20-5 with a 2.34 ERA, led the league in fewest BB/9, ERA, win pct, adjusted ERA+; second in WHIP; and finished freakin' FIFTH in the Cy Young
Steve Carlton won the NL Cy that year (17 of 24 first-place votes)
Just show me the wins, baby.