From today's Twins notes:
Justin Morneau at least partly blames his participation in the Home Run Derby for his second half offensive slump, and his manager does not disagree.
Morneau is batting just .254 in the second half, compared to .295 in the first half. He's only hit six home runs post-All Star break, whereas he had 24 before.
In the 18 games after the Home Run Derby (from after the ASB to the end of July), Morneau hit .308/.361/.538 with 4 HR. From August 1st to September 15th, he's hit an atrocious .233/.298/.358.
When you're in a slump like that, I can understand trying to figure out what exactly went wrong, but it seems highly unlikely to me that the HR Derby had a huge negative effect with a 19-game delay set on it. If Justin decides to sit out the HR Derby in the future, though, I'm not going to shed any tears. The HR Derby is good for a few laughs, but if it went away, it wouldn't really hurt baseball.
Morneau is 26 years old this year. In 2001, David Ortiz's age 25 season, he hit .196/.288/.430 from August 1st until the end of the season. A bit more power than Morneau over the same time frame, but given the sample size, it's not a huge difference. Obviously, David Ortiz has gone on to do pretty well for himself since then.
As far as this season goes, Morneau's slump was really unfortunate, but I don't see it affecting his long-term projection too much. He still has a ton of raw power, and I feel he can hit .310/.370/.550 in a season a few more times, though that performance alone likely won't earn him any more MVP awards.
Morneau's slump might also make this a good time to work out a long-term extension, before he goes and puts together a full season of awesomeness.
Or (shudder) he's simply regressed back to his mean.
What he did last year is probably on the high side of what he's going to do in general, but I think that it's unlikely he'll continue to post these sorts of overall numbers in such a bipolar manner.
Maybe he needs some help (bent nail in pocket, shaving forearms, find statue of Col. Sanders).
They need to sacrifice a live chicken. A LIVE chicken, not a bucket of chicken.
I think LeCroy's presence probably complicates any sacrifice involving food.
I guess my biggest thing when looking at Morneau's regression in 2007 is the fact that he's struggled so much against left handed pitching.
He's hitting .232/.284/.426 versus them this year. While that's not a bad SLG, it's definitely a regression based on what he did in 2006 with his .315/.345/.559. Oddly enough, according to ESPN.com, he posted the same SLG vs. LHP in 2006 as he did vs. RHP in 2006.
While Morneau may not be a career .320 hitter, I do think he's got the ability to hit around .300 on a yearly basis.
His IsoP is still there, and his BB rate is up...I think Morneau is going to be OK.
The main difference in his performance against LHP this year and last is a few singles. The extra base hits are essentially there and the walks are essentially there. Some years the singles will fall in and other years they won't.
If you're going to be worried at his splits, be worried about his career splits. Overall in his career he's been a lot worse against LHP, but his OPS vs. LHP is still 100 points better than Jacque Jones' OPS against lefties. Over his career, Jim Thome has done against LHP essentially what Morneau has done so far in his career. Lefty hitters in general also generally have a larger platoon split, so it is kind of the nature of the beast. Hopefully with Morneau entering his prime, his numbers will approach Thome's against RHP, though that's certainly no guarantee.
BABIP vs LH: 237 (2007) BABIP vs LH: 264 (career)
BABIP vs RH: 296 (2007) BABIP vs RH: 295 (career)
what he said.
Jim Thome's career split
BABIP vs LH: 312
BABIP vs RH: 331
If Morneau were to have Thome's career BABIP splits, he'd be a first-ballot HOFer. Thome has struck out in 22 pct of his PA vs RH, 29 pct of his PA vs LH. Morny, in contrast, has K'd in only 15 pct of his PA vs RH, 17 pct of his PA vs LH.
His minor league splits appear not to be available, but, jeez, he hit 310/375/527 overall in the minors in 2062 PA. Somebody once said that minor league success is a pretty strong predictor for major-league success. I think he'll be fine.
I don't see any good reason why he can't be a 300/360/520 player on a consistent basis at the major-league level, as they say.
I don't see why Morneau won't be fine.
I just think the reason why he's "struggled" this year in terms of hitting LHP, and hitting for a higher average in general, is the fact that he's been a bit unlucky this year compared to last in terms of his BABIP...and that he's struggled vs. LHP in 2007 compared to how well he fared against them in 2006.
One guy that's absolutely regressed vs. LHP in 2007 compared to last is Joe Mauer. That .654 OPS he's sporting versus LHP is rather Tyner-esque.
It's tough to say that Mauer has regressed when his career line against LHP is .274/.339/.327. Yeah, Mauer had a relatively good year against lefties last year, but he still hit for Juan Castro-like power (Castro career ISO: .105, Mauer ISO vs. LHP, 2006: .094.) Mauer's walk rate this year at 9.9% BB/PA vs. LHP is also pretty close to his walk rate last year vs. LHP of 10.6%.
Against LHP, Mauer has 2 career HR, both coming in 2006. If you take away those 2 HR, his ISO vs. LHP in 2006 would have been .061, and his career ISO vs. LHP to this point is .053.
So last year, Mauer's success against LHP, compared to his career numbers, boils down to some singles falling in for hits, a handful fewer strikeouts, and two home runs. Mauer was better last year against LHP, but not in any sort of meaningful way.
It's really, really difficult to draw conclusions from 200 PA. Mauer's likely going to struggle against lefties from here on out, but I don't see that as a huge problem. He's a catcher, the Twins have a natural platoon partner for him, and on top of that he's had trouble staying healthy. So just give him full days off against LHP, especially tough LHP, unless another team has lefties going in back-to-back games. You'd still get Mauer catching 120-130 games over the course of the year, and you'd be maximizing his ratewise performance over those games.
That would work fine if you had a manager smarter than the weasel.
As it stands, we can count on the Twins sitting Mauer in the day game after a night game - regardless of the handedness of the opposing pitchers in each contest. I've yet to see Mauer sit in the night game before a day game; it's always the opposite.
Joe's splits and K:BB (PA)
2006 vs RH: 364 31:57 (401)
2006 vs LH: 365 23:22 (207)
2007 vs RH: 317 23:41 (292)
2007 vs LH: 324 25:15 (151)
career v. RH: 342 97:158 (1178)
career v. LH: 320 83:49 (549)
Yah, I'm with ubes. Stop this foolish "mauer always sits on the getaway day" approach and instead platoon him more conscientiously against the tougher lefties. And maybe move him up to 2nd or down to 6th in the order when he does play against a lefty starter.
But far more important, in my view, is for Smith to acquire another right-handed bat with some pop to better balance the lineup (and provide some above replacement level performance at DH).
You don't even really have to make Mauer feel that bad about it if you want. Just say that Redmond needs to be platooned more because he's getting old and losing bat speed or something, and that you want to give Joe more full days off because of his health concerns. Which is to say, I guess, you can make your case without even having to resort to Mauer's perfomance against LHP.
Career numbers:
.332/.389/.436 -- Redmond vs. LHP
.332/.421/.519 -- Mauer vs. RHP
.272/.328/.331 -- Redmond vs. RHP
.274/.339/.327 -- Mauer vs. LHP
So by not being intelligent about which days to sit Mauer/Redmond, Gardy not only shoots the team in the foot for one game, but both games.
This is the same power outage we saw last year in the 2nd Half with Morneau:
2006 1st Half HR:23
2006 2nd Half HR:11
2007 1st Half HR: 24
2007 2nd Half HR: 8 (6 Current)
My theory is that he simply plays in too many games. Over the past two years he has played in 97% (300/310) of the games the Twins have played. For a guy that isn't blessed with outstanding natural athleticism, that has to take a toll on your body over the course of a year. Part of me wonders what would happen if the Twins sat Morneau for an extra 10-15 games a year. Would the potential increased production when playing in 140 games but only fill-in first baseman production the other 22 games be more than what is being produced now from 1B? If we had a manager that knew how to manage splits well, I would venture yes. However, with Gardy, I don't know if it would be worthwhile.
The main problem I see is that the Twins haven't had anyone reasonable on the roster to match with Morneau. Specifically, a decent righty corner infield backup. Given Mauer's splits against LHP and Morneau's splits against LHP, if the Twins could find someone like a Marcus Thames or Josh Phelps, they could spot start Morneau at DH, Thames/Phelps at 1B, Redmond at C, and give Mauer the day off. The time at DH would probably help Morneau from wearing down a bit--if that's the problem--and even taking a couple of extra days off against the Sabathias and Bedards of the world probably wouldn't be the worst thing ever. The Twins haven't really given Gardy a chance to screw up the lineup in this regard, though--there's no one on it that makes it easy for him to sit Morneau.
A pre-complete suckage Matty LeCroy would have been the ticket. Mashed lefties, incapable against righties. Seriously, how hard should it be to find a guy like Matt LeCroy (pre-suckage)?
You mean like Bobby Kielty?
The Yankees took Josh Phelps with the pick after the Twins in the Rule 5 draft. Phelps has hit .321/.394/.512 against LHP this year. Over his head? Maybe a little, but in his career, he's hit .298/.364/.502 against LHP. Phelps has also spent time at catcher in the past, and could easily serve as emergency back-up if that's the sort of thing you're looking for.
The Twins took Machado, who might be a decent backup middle infielder when he's healthy, but to me, this team needed a Matt LeCroy clone more than it needed a Nick Punto clone.
Also, on this offense, his .260/.332/.465 line against RHP wouldn't have been that bad, either.
.263/.326/.429 -- Kubel, 2007
.311/.398/.520 -- Phelps, 2007
.273/.343/.478 -- Phelps, career
.244/.295/.376 -- Twins, LF, 2007
.263/.339/.373 -- Twins, DH, 2007
well, to be charitable to TR and the boys, wasn't the Machado pick a reflection of the organizational need to come up with a near-term replacement for Castillo? Casilla wasn't exactly a sure thing at 2nd coming into the season, and Tolbert wasn't on anyone's fast track.
Machado == Punto, more or less. If you think that getting another Nick Punto to replace Luis Castillo with was important, then sure, Machado is right up your alley.
then this is an indictment of TR, and further evidence as to why it was time for him to leave the big chair. There really isn't any excuse for using a Rule 5 pick for the next Nicky Punto.
Punto's minors line: 265/362/339, 387:333 K:BB in 2516 PA
Machado's line: 288/364/355, 399:340 in 3276 PA.
thing one: yep, they sure look similar. thing two: 3200+ minor league PA for Machado?? holy cr@p! what were they thinking and why the hell did they not offer him back to Washington? the dude is gonna be 26 next season. his odds of being able to contribute over/above what Punto gives are damned low.
LeCroy, had he not gone in the tank so quickly, would have been a great addition to this ball club...that's why I was "kind of" excited about the Twins bringing him back this year.
I felt that if he could at least mash LHP, that he'd find himself a spot on this baseball team and would play vs. LHP.
However, my guess is that his lack of athletic ability caught up with him, and he's closer to coaching baseball than continuing to play it.