When looking at the free agent marketplace, the easy part is figuring out who the free agents are--at the end of every season they have to declare free agency. The part that involves guesswork is the demand side: which teams are going to be interested in free agents? Center field is obviously a position that Twins fans will be keeping an eye on in the off-season. It's also kind of a difficult position to gauge interest in. A particularly rich team could decide to bring in a second center fielder to start in a corner position, so you have to keep an eye on a team's entire outfield situation.
I'll be looking at teams from best record to worst record (as of September 22nd), figuring that the teams with the best records are more attractive free agent destinations than teams with the worst records.
Indians -- Sizemore is a fixture in CF, so anyone going to Cleveland would have to be in a corner spot. Payroll of just $62M this season, but with a division title this season, it's pretty easy to see them adding payroll. In the corners they've been getting by mixing and matching Dellucci, Michaels, Gutierrez, Lofton, and Nixon. Gutierrez is going to be pre-arb or arb-eligible and in his limited playing time has been hitting about as well as Hunter has the last three years. Michaels and Dellucci are under contract for '08. Lofton and Nixon will be free agents. With Gutierrez/Michaels/Dellucci, I'd guess that the Indians basically have their corners covered, and if they are going to make a move, it'd probably be to bring Lofton back as a 4th OF and maybe try to dump Dellucci off on someone else (or keep him around and hope he bounces back a bit.)
Red Sox -- The Red Sox have Coco Crisp under contract through '09, with a club option for '10. In addition, they have Jacoby Ellsbury who is cheap and can play CF, they have J.D. Drew signed for megabucks, and they have Manny as long as Ortiz is blocking him from DH'ing. Even having moved Wily Mo Pena, they seem to have a pretty full OF. With their budget, who knows, but barring a trade, I can't see them signing a CF this off-season.
Angels -- Gary Matthews, Jr. and his 5yr/$50M contract signed last winter reside in CF here. They also have Reggie Willits around as a backup plan in CF, since they seem fairly tied to him as their lead-off hitter/mascot/Eckstein midget replacement. Garret Anderson is under contract for next year (and is a franchise guy who likely wouldn't be moved), and Juan Rivera figures to probably come back healthy next year. Oh yeah, there's that Vlad guy, too. I don't really see a place for another OF. Even if they moved Rivera (though he's cheap so they wouldn't need to), they still don't seem to have enough space for anything other than a part-time OF'er. They are probably saving up their pennies to land A-Rod (should he opt out) or Barry Bonds.
Yankees -- Melky Cabrera has been their primary CF this year, and is young and cheap. The Yankees have been known to keep their own from time-to-time (see: Jeter, Posada, Williams, Rivera, etc.) Johnny Damon is owed $26M over the next two years. Matsui and Abreu are around in the corners, and Giambi will be clogging up the DH spot for at least one more year. Like with the Red Sox, they've got deep pockets, so who knows, but without a trade, signing a free agent CF would be a pretty radical move.
D-Backs -- Chris Young's going to be just fine in CF. Once he gets a few more singles to fall in, he'll essentially be hitting as well as Torii Hunter has, maybe with more walks. Eric Byrnes recently signed a 3yr/$30M extension. (He's better than I thought he was, but really? You're throwing that much money at Eric Byrnes?) Carlos Quentin figures to be a good option in the future, but has had a disappointing season. Justin Upton has gotten 125 AB with the D-Backs--and he's 19! That's crazy. He hasn't been hitting well, but you have to figure that if they're willing to call him up as a 19-year old that he's in their long-term plans. Jeff Salazar is a guy they've played a bit so far who looks like he could be a league average hitter and probably handle CF if needed. Now, Upton can probably be stashed in the minors for a bit longer, and they could decide to move Quentin in a sort of "change-of-scenery" trade, but they wouldn't need to make any kind of acquisition here.
Mets -- Carlos Beltran is a fixture in CF for the Mets. They've been known to bring in a second CF before (Mike Cameron teamed with Beltran for a spell), though. They have a $10M option on Shawn Green, and a $7.5M option on Moises Alou. Aside from his injury, Alou has been quite productive for the Mets. Green hasn't been terrible. Milledge hasn't hit a ton so far, but he's been roughly a league average hitter and he's 22. Endy Chavez is probably still arbitration eligible, but are they really interested in keeping Endy Chavez around? I'm not exactly sure what to make of the Mets' situation here. Will they be patient enough to give Milledge a spot in a corner and keep him there? Will they try to make a big free agent splash and trade Milledge? Will they just keep the status quo? I'm not sure.
Padres -- Mike Cameron is a pending free agent. Brian Giles has played some center in the past, but it hasn't been his primary position since 2000. Terrmel Sledge has gotten playing time in left. Milton Bradley has been great for them while healthy, but he's had health issues for what seems like a long time to me, and he's a free agent at the end of the season to boot. Paul McAnulty looks like he might hit well enough for a corner spot, but is certainly no center fielder. If they have great major-league ready OF prospects, I can't find them. Their OF situation kind of looks like a mess, and they will almost certainly need to fill the void in CF through free agency or a trade.
Phillies -- Aaron Rowand is a pending free agent. Pat Burrell's contract is stuck in LF for at least one more year, though he's still hitting reasonably well. Would they shift Victorino to CF? He covered for Rowand there in 2006, and he doesn't really hit all that well as a corner outfielder. They don't seem to have any compelling OF prospects.
Tigers -- Curtis Granderson is a fixture in CF. Ordonez fills one corner for them for at least the next two years (and given his performance this year, they won't be trading him.) Cameron Maybin is a top prospect in the outfield, but they might be reluctant to go with him at the beginning of the season, since he's struggled in his cup of coffee. Marcus Thames also figures to get consideration for playing time in the OF. I could see them maybe getting a stop-gap corner OF, but probably not one of the free agent CF that will demand a multi-year deal.
Mariners -- Ichiro is a fixture in CF. Adam Jones is the heir apparent, Wlad Balentien is a decent prospect, they strangely think that Raul Ibanez can still play good enough defense to patrol Safeco, and they might still figure out a way to keep Jose Guillen around. They don't need a center fielder this off-season, and it doesn't seem like they need anyone in the outfield, either.
Summary:
So far that gives us: two teams that could really use a CF (Padres, Phillies), four teams that might make a move for an outfielder of some sort, but probably not a CF (Indians, D-Backs, Mets, Tigers), and four teams that are pretty full in the outfield (Red Sox, Angels, Yankees, Mariners.)
Comments are especially welcome if I've missed any top prospects with these teams, since I'm not all that familiar with all of their minor league systems.
I think the Flyin' Hawaiian will do just fine in center for the Phils next season. I can't believe he was taken in two different Rule V drafts.
But have the Phils indicated they are willing to go with him? I sort of feel like they probably want to re-sign Rowand, as he seems like the sort of player who would be well-liked in Philly.
I'd like to believe that if we cannot get Hunter back this year, that we may be able to sign Mike Cameron to a 3 year deal and not see too huge a drop off for Hunter.
I do hope the Twins are big players in the market this year, at least to the extent that they actually go after some decent names...
IMO, the most I'd give a guy like Cameron would be a two year deal.
He plays in a tough park, yes, but the guy will be 35 by the time next season begins.
I'd shy away from anything more than a two year deal...I am a Cameron fan, but I wouldn't advocate anything that would be paying him significant money when he's 38 years old.
I have a sinking feeling that SBG's prediction of Erstad replacing Hunter in the Twins lineup will prove to be prophetic.
I'd feel better about Cameron coming to Minnesota for a few years, except he is in his mid-30's now and probably would cost more than I'd like to see the Twins pay for him at this point.
That was something that was brought up at this past weekend's convention.
Erstad's performance during Saturday's game should just about seal his spot as the Twins everyday CF in 2008.
BTW, did you know that he played D1 college football?
BTW, did you know that he played D1 college football?
And did you know that he's a Dakota boy?
I may have heard once or twice that he's what they call a Real Gamer, too. Scraptacular!
Gritty, even.
I could also see the Twins wind up settling for Corey Patterson, who is maybe slightly better than Erstad at this point.
It'll be interesting to see what Cameron gets paid. This year, he's been worth maybe 1 win less than Hunter, and over the last three years combined they've been reasonably equivalent. But Cameron is older and Hunter figures to age a little better.
Do you really think the Twins would sign a player that strikes out as much as Patterson? I know they love athleticism but they hate strikeouts.
I'd forgotten about Patterson's strikeouts. I dunno, will they decide to accept Erstad's age and declining performance or Patterson's strikeouts? Stay tuned.
I dunno, will they decide to accept Erstad’s age and declining performance
If the past is prologue, welcome to the Twins, Darrin!
Throw in the "local boy" angle and the fact that he "battles his tail off." I think it's a done deal.
Let's move on to 3B.
The Yankees could be a destination, especially if they don't win the World Series and A-Rod opts out. If A-Rod leaves, that'll free up money and no trophy will make the natives restless.
Is Matsui a free agent this year or did he sign an extension? It seems to me he was going to be free. If that's the case, the Yankees could definitely be involved. If Matsui, Cabrera, Abreu, and Damon are all around, I don't see them adding an OF.
Matsui signed through 2009 at $13 million per.
I don't know where I got the idea that Matsui would be a FA.
I wasn't sure either, so I looked it up.
Like Algonad, as long as the Yankees have four OF, I can't see them getting in on the action. However, if A-Rod leaves, maybe they would sign an OF and then trade someone else. But I'm not really convinced the Yanks will be involved until they trade someone or at least indicate that someone might be on the trading block.
The Padres' outfield situation just got even murkier. Milton Bradley Tim Dierkes
points out, Lane's career line (in about 1200 AB) is .241/.315/.458, while the NL CF average is .273/.336/.427. Lane's not eligible for the post-season if the Padres make it, so that seems like they want him for next year.
Even after adding Lane things are looking mighty poor for the Friars.
Eh, my HTML skills are weak this morning. That should say:
Ubes: do you think the Indians are giving up on Andy Marte?
I just assumed that Casey Blake would go back to RF next year. Marte is out of options.
He really has struggled in limited time in the majors (a puntonian front end, but with some pop: 199/259/353 and 59:21 K:BB in 272 AB), but somebody once said that guys with good minor league track records typically develop into successful major leaguers. His line in the minors: 271/347/476 and 603:307 in 2576 AB, around a thousand of which have been in AAA.
Here's the deal with Marte: he hasn't been the same since his injury after the 2005 season. Since then, despite repeating AAA two times, his line has been more like .265/.310/.450. Alright pop, but not much of an OBP or an average. I mean, Garrett Jones out-hit Marte this year. Also, his glove probably isn't very good, or he probably would have been given more time to struggle at the plate.
Given his injury, I don't think that his track record is really all that strong. I wouldn't totally give up on the kid, but he's no lock for playing time. (And Casey Blake is a below-average corner OF. He could move back to a corner OF spot, but I don't know if that's especially desirable.)
good points. although Marte is still pretty young (this was his age-23 season).
Blake has been a serviceable player, but he's entering his age-34 season and could well be on the down-hill slide, so I can't really argue with you on him either.
Yeah, Marte's still young. I guess mainly his star has just faded a bunch. He could still potentially turn out alright, but things do not look good right now.
yea. Funny how just 3 or so years ago, the Braves seemed loaded with rising talent (Betemit and Marte spring to mind, but also Martin Prado, Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, Zach Miner, Kyle Davies, etc.).
It's a good reminder that not every bright prospect pans out. But, boy was that farm system loaded.
Obviously not everyone pans out, but McCann is a great catcher right now, Francoeur is just 23 and is a league average hitter, Prado's done about what you would expect someone with a sub-.100 ISO in the minors to do, Kelly Johnson's hitting .282/.380/.466 (park-adjusted) as a 2B at age 25, Miner never had great strikeout numbers in the minors, and Davies seems to have a lot more problems with control than you would have expected. Betemit has bounced around, but he's got a career 98 OPS+ in the majors.
Honestly, out of that entire group, Davies is a disappointment, Marte has been disappointing, but otherwise I'd say that group is doing about what you would expect them to do, and you've got a couple really good players in there.
Possibly the most impressive thing in that list is the Braves treatment of their top prospects and their general overall success rate at identifying the good ones:
Francoeur - already league-average offensively with what seems to be above-average defense. They kept him.
McCann - top 5 young catcher in the league. They kept him.
Johnson - 25 year old 2B who has OPS+ of 119. They kept him. (Incidentally, they have Yunel Escobar, Renteria, and Johnson at middle infield for next year. Could the Twins get Johnson to play 2B or 3B even?)
Prado - Nothing special, but can provide slightly below average offense as a backup utility player (80 OPS+) at the age of 23. In the minors this year he had an OPS of almost .800 at AAA. Not a bad player to have as a cheap utility player.
Of the players they got rid of:
Miner - he may turn out to be a decent back end of the rotation player, but they gave him up for RP help (Farnsworth). Decent trade.
Marte - he's lost most of his luster, and the Braves got Renteria for him. Outstanding trade.
Davies - he's still relatively young, but over almost 300 innings, he has a career ERA over 6 and a WHIP over 1.7. They gave him up for more RP help (Dotel). Dotel's been hurt, but Davies sucks so this is probably a wash.
Betemit - He looks like he could be a decent player, especially if he can get a few more singles to fall in (even this year with a .227 average he has an OPS of .795 - could be a .850 OPSer). The Braves gave him up for more RP help again (Baez) but also got Willy Aybar, who has had a lot of personal issues this year and then had surgery. This is probably the only trade the Braves wish they had back.
Overall - the Braves have given up a fair number of prospects to try to help their current ML club, but have managed to hold on to the studs for the most part. Pretty impressive if you ask me, and the type of management I wish the Twins would be more apt to try.
Yeah, and I think they chose well with Salty, too. Yes, he's a good prospect, but he's not special, and Mark Teixeira is one of the few first basemen around who boosts his good offensive value with good defensive value. With a payroll ~$90M, you can afford to carry around a couple of top-tier players at top-tier prices, and Teixeira could fill one of those spots. (And stuck behind McCann, Salty wasn't as valuable to the Braves as he was to other teams.)
Yea, I didn't mean to imply that that group of Braves had been a disappointment. It was just a quickie list of recognizable names strewn through their mid- to upper-farm system 2-3 years ago.
Good stuff. I look forward to the rest of the series. The A's, in particular, have a host of OFers on the 40-man roster, almost all of whom need to be on the 25-man or moved (several are currently on the 60-day DL).
the Dan Johnson era appears over with the promotion of Daric Barton. This was a weird move by Billy. The River Cats had just won the PCL championship and were about to leave for Oklahoma City for the playoff game against the IL champs when Barton got the call. He was basically the only prospect to spend the whole season season with Sacramento, and he gets called up then???
anyway, he's been on fire since the call up. 333/413/593 with 11:7 K:BB in 63 PA. He plays a solid 1b, so I gotta figure that Swisher goes back to the OF.
Johnson (232/347/418 and 74:71 K:BB in 2007, 248/343/420 and 171:161 career in 1252 PA) might get a chance to win the DH job in the spring, but I wouldn't be shocked if Billy tries to trade him. Which is too bad. He's the epitome of the "Moneyball" player type. Even with his struggles at the plate this year, he's had a 105 OPS+ thanks to good plate discipline. But he doesn't run very well for a guy who has shown M11-type power at the Major League Level. EqAs the last three years: 292, 258, 285 (2007).
Nice stuff Ubes...
One guy you forgot to mention, and it's understandable, is Carlos Gomez, outfield prospect from the Mets. Defensively, they say this kid is much better than Lastings Milledge which leads me to believe that the Mets are probably going to stick Milledge at a corner spot and keep him there.
You bring up the fact that Beltran is going to be a Met for quite some time, so that really doesn't open up that spot for Gomez...or anyone else for that matter. Gomez has great speed, a terrific arm, and pretty good instincts out in center field along with having a bit of pop in his stick...so it's going to be interesting to see what they do with him in the future.
He recently faced the ol' hamate bone injury (See Sanchez, Henry), but he's back and playing with the Mets...and a lot of that PT is in RF. I assume that since the Mets have Beltran, that Gomez will get stuck at a corner spot where he should be just fine. He probably will not hit for a large amount of power, but he'll still be a huge asset none the less.
If the Twins aren't going to sign a CF via FA, assuming Hunter leaves, Gomez, IMO, would be a tremendous player to look at in terms of acquiring via trade.
Good call. Gomez looks like he could use some seasoning in AAA, though, as he only hit .286/.363/.414 in the PCL this year. His minor league stats look pretty typical for someone who has been advanced because he is good defensively and wasn't totally overmatched (but also wasn't good) at the plate.
So I think you're right that that makes Milledge a corner OF, and if Beltran goes down, they'd bring up Gomez to play CF, but Gomez' presence probably makes it less likely that they would target a CF if they were to make an OF free agent signing.
As far as acquiring Gomez, I don't know. I don't think he'd hit a whole lot more than Tyner in 2008, and long-term I'm not really sure, but I probably wouldn't want to give up a whole lot for him.
Just throwing this out there..
But PECOTA had Lastings Milledge, Rocco Baldelli, Frank Diaz, and Hanley Ramirez as comps for Gomez.
It also has Willy Taveras and Luis Rivas as comps for Gomez.
PECOTA has gotten better at this, but it seems to over-rate aggressively promoted prospects who haven't hit very well at each level. The problem is that most aggressively promoted prospects are promoted because they hit really well, so when you compare Gomez to other prospects who were promoted like that, you're bound to find good players.
Milledge has a .174 ISO in the minors, and Gomez has a .121 ISO in the minors. That's a pretty big difference. Baldelli hit for a .190 ISO the season before he was promoted to Tampa.
PECOTA usually knows more than I do, but I think there's a certain Rivas-potential with Gomez where he's a toolsy guy with potential, but hasn't seen that necessarily turn into results yet. Some of those guys wind up hitting well (Hanley Ramirez, for instance) and some of them don't.
On the Mets situation: It is almost certain they won't bring Green back--he's already lost playing time to Milledge, whom they like. Alou is more of an open question, and let me say this: that guy can rake. Of course, if you bring him back for left field, you have to have an excellent 4th OF, since he'll get injured, and I'm sure they would like to keep Chavez around for that job, because he's been terrific for them and is a really great outfielder.
My best guess is they go into next year with Beltran flanked by Alou and Milledge as their starters, with Chavez as the 4th OF and Gomez in AAA waiting.
I also would be pleased to acquire Gomez, who I think will be a good player, and can certainly handle center cheaply. It's not clear whether he'll be able to hit, though he's awfully young. His minor league line is roughly .280/.335/.400, which is somewhat marginal. But that's been in tough leagues where he's been very young; most impressive was last year, when he skipped entirely over High-A, and went to AA at age 20 and hit .280/.350/.425.