Jim McLennan, writer for the AZ Snakepit has been kind enough to answer some questions about the D-Backs. When I sent him some questions, I pressured him with the information that Rox Girl had already responded. He wrote back: "Rox Girl! Well, can't possibly say no now, can I!" Jim came through for us in a big way. Thanks, Jim!
Hopefully, Jim will be around to answer questions during the day.
After the jump, we've got Jim's Q&A:
I've had my eye on Arizona from the beginning of the season after reading that Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus had picked them to win the World Series. What were your expectations coming into the 2007 season?
It was difficult to predict coming in what was going to happen, since
there were so many variables. We had a lot of young players on the roster, and that made it difficult to come up with meaningful predictions. Plus, our pitching rotation was basically Brandon Webb and a bunch of question-marks: would Doug Davis rebound (yes)? Would Randy Johnson's back hold up (no)? We had a pre-season poll on the side, and the median vote seemed to be around 86 wins or so. Personally, anything between 70 and 95 seemed possible, depending on how things broke.
Even though I wasn't surprised that the D-Backs won the NL West, I picked the Cubs to win the NLDS. Stupid me! Tell us what you thought the keys were for the D-Backs. And don't say Lou Pineilla.
Lou Pini...oh, okay. :-) The key moment was Chris Young's three-run homer in the second game. The Cubs lost the first, but that wasn't too much of a shock with Webb on the mound. Chicago knew they had to take Game Two, and when they went 2-0 up, seemed on the road to doing so. However, Young's homer, restoring the lead to Arizona, seemed to cause the Cubs to enter panic mode: they started pressing, and against soft-tossers like Davis and Hernandez, that proved fatal. The heart of their line-up completely failed to deliver: Augie Ojeda had more extra-base hits and RBI than Soriano, Ramirez and Lee combined! And Arizona got great production (7-for-14, 2 HR) from Stephen Drew, who had struggled until the final month of the season.
I'm sure you are aware that the D-Backs were outscored and over performed their Pythagorean Winning Percentage by 11 games. I've read some theories about how that has happened, but do you have any thoughts?
Outscored? Arizona? No, I've not heard any mention of THAT in the media at all! [Insert five minutes of eye-rolling here] Frankly, I gave up caring about mid-May, and indeed started cheering for more one-run wins and blowout losses, just to stick it to those geeks who said we couldn't continue that way. It certainly wasn't because we were clutch or, even had a high batting average on balls in play - we sucked in both categories. I think the main reason is a bullpen that locked on to leads like a pit-bull, and a bench capable of delivering key hits when needed. When we needed to play for one run, or hang on to a one-run lead, we seemed very good at doing so.
What should every fan know about the Diamondback that only the hardcore Diamondbacks fans know?
That we were outscored during the regular season? No, hang on... Micah Owings may be the best-hitting pitcher since Babe Ruth. In his debut season, he posted an OPS of 1.032 in 60 at-bats; that's a figure surpassed only by three pitchers in history with more than 40 plate-appearances, and is the best since 1951.
I've seen three games at what is now Chase Field. I really think > it's a pretty good facility for baseball in the desert. My favorite experience there was a night game with the roof open and the air conditioning on. It was 95 (it was May, I think) outside, but that was one of the most pleasant nights I've ever had at the ball park. Some criticisms that I've seen about the park is that is not very intimate. Your thoughts?
I definitely prefer it with the roof open, but this is Arizona, where we trade aesthetic pleasure for comfort on a daily basis. My main beef is the amount of advertising: they added an LED ribbon around almost the entire park, and too often, it just feels like another way to pound us with commercials. The place is functional, I feel, rather than possessing much atmosphere - but it functions pretty well, I find.
What's the D-Backs blogging community like? What are your favorite D-Backs blogs?
"Small", would be a good way to put it! A few have sprung up, but there really aren't that many dedicated D-backs sites which are regularly updated. Diary of a Die Hard [http://www.diarydiehard.com] is among the best, and though not strictly a blog, the Diamondbacks Bullpen [http://diamondbacksbullpen.org] is the most-active forum, with a huge wealth of insight. Here's to more springing up, in the wake of the team's success.
Talk about a rollercoaster. World Champions in 2001, three playoff appearance in four years ending in 2002, the disastrous 111 losses in 2004 and now back on top. How is the state of baseball in Phoenix? I've heard 12,000 tickets are available for the NLCS. Is that true?
Less than 8,000 as of lunchtime today, I believe, and I'm pretty sure those will be all but gone by first pitch. Arizona is a bandwagon town: with the franchise only established in 1998 there aren't many die-hard loyalists, and the casual fans were scared off after that nightmarish 2004. They only started coming back in the second-half of this year, and I have to say, charging $85 for NLCS seats which cost $20 in the regular season, is a good way to put off all but the most passionate.
The D-Backs are quite familiar with the Rockies. Give us a little scouting report. What worries you about the Rockies?
Their offense. Top to bottom, they can rake. Helton, Holliday, Hawpe, Tulowitzki, Atkins. Sure, Coors gives them a boost, but I've seen enough of them to know that their hitting prowess is no illusion. They're finally beginning to put together some solid pitching too, which has always been the Achilles' heel of the franchise [are they still paying Mike Hampton?] I like what the franchise is doing: much like Arizona, they're building from within, with a roster of home-grown players rather than mercenaries. It's a good, long-term strategy and should build fan loyalty too.
What do you think will happen in the NLCS?
It's going to be close: both teams has easy passages in the Division Series, but I don't think there will be a sweep on either side. Six or seven games seems more likely than four or five. A key is going to be whether Brandon Webb can master the Rockies or the other way around - he had issues with them early in the season, but saves his best outing for last, when we clinched a playoff spot. I think whoever wins the first game will take the series, and I think that will be AZ, but I can see it going all the way to seven games before we do that.
How about the ALCS? Who would you like to see in the World Series, assuming you get that far? Are you itching to get a shot at Schilling?
That'd be nice - I still harbor some grudges about him saying the Red Sox Series win was his "A ring". But I'd probably be happier still if they crashed and burned to the Indians: it'd stop all those faux Sox fans from coming out of the woodwork. Really, since they won the World Series, in my eyes Boston has become the Yankees Lite - just as noxious, only with a slightly-lower payroll. Still, whoever makes it from the AL, they're going to be the favorites, and probably justifiably so. Not that we mind: after all, being the favorites worked out so well for the Cubs, didn't it?

Johan Santana hit .286/.375/.714 this year -- of course that was in only eight plate appearances.
Owings had 12 extra base hits, including four home runs! Can he play third base?
Is Owings a better hitter than whoever would DH if they get to the WS? So would they in fact improve the offense by foregoing the DH?
(I understand that even if Owings is a better hitter, they shouldn't use him in lieu of the DH, as if he gets taken out, they still don't get a DH the rest of the game).
Jim, you indicated that you lived overseas (I'm assuming that you aren't US born). How did you become a baseball fan when it's not a big sport over in Europe? And where are you living now?
Any comments on ex-Twins Jeff Cirillo, Augie Ojeda, or coach Chip Hale?
Hadn't thought of this before, but how does having the Cactus League there in Pheonix area affect the fan base/rivalries? I know there is a big Cubs fan base w/Hohokam, and know some Brewers fans there as well.
Jim: what effects, if any, do you think the Cactus League and the Arizona Fall League have had on the development of the baseball market in the Phoenix area?
what does the future hold for the club? I assume that The Unit is d-u-n done. And Livan is like 400 years old. Tony Clark? Will he be back? What's cooking in AAA and AA that you are excited about? What are the biggest weaknesses in the minor league system?
and most importantly, what's the latest word on the return of Bandersnatch Brew Pub?
Good to see that the anti-Red Sox Nation is, um, national. Funny and informed answers Mr.McClennan. Cheers!
How many of Owings AB were as a pinch hitter?
At some point people got way too carried away with Bill James' pythagorean winning percentage. As I recall, Bill's main point in developing the pythagorean winning percentage was that early in the season, a team's record doesn't carry a whole lot of information. That is, it was meant to be used early in the season.
I remember three years ago, while working on his playoff odds report, Clay Davenport tested how the pythagorean winning percentage compared to actual winning percentage (I don't think subscription is required for this article) as a way to predict the outcome of games. While the pythagorean record does very well at the beginning of the season, after 140 games the actual winning percentage served as a better estimator for how teams did going forward. Clay summarized:
The pythagorean record is a nice tool early in the season, but by the end of the season, we shouldn't be surprised to see some teams out-performing their pythagorean record and some teams under-performing their pythagorean record.
What would really be surprising is if no team underperformed or outperformed their Pythagorean winning percentage. :)
The PWP is a best fit curve of observed results and it is a blunt tool. If a team deviates substantially from the curve, some analysis as to why might be in order. For example, did they have an unusual offensive run distribution? Did they manage their pitching staff in a different ways? That's why I was looking at the Twins run distribution earlier this year. They were underperforming a little and I thought maybe their run distribution was part of the answer. From there we got GreekHouse's sharks v. piranha analysis.