Comments on: Jim McLennan on the Arizona Diamondbacks

By: SBG

SBG — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 17:54:55 +0000

What would really be surprising is if no team underperformed or outperformed their Pythagorean winning percentage.

The PWP is a best fit curve of observed results and it is a blunt tool. If a team deviates substantially from the curve, some analysis as to why might be in order. For example, did they have an unusual offensive run distribution? Did they manage their pitching staff in a different ways? That's why I was looking at the Twins run distribution earlier this year. They were underperforming a little and I thought maybe their run distribution was part of the answer. From there we got GreekHouse's sharks v. piranha analysis.

By: ubelmann

ubelmann — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 17:40:19 +0000

At some point people got way too carried away with Bill James' pythagorean winning percentage. As I recall, Bill's main point in developing the pythagorean winning percentage was that early in the season, a team's record doesn't carry a whole lot of information. That is, it was meant to be used early in the season. I remember three years ago, while working on his playoff odds report, Clay Davenport tested how the pythagorean winning percentage compared to actual winning percentage (I don't think subscription is required for this article) as a way to predict the outcome of games. While the pythagorean record does very well at the beginning of the season, after 140 games the actual winning percentage served as a better estimator for how teams did going forward. Clay summarized:

I think it would be reasonable to conclude that anyone interested in handicapping the playoffs should be using actual record rather than Pythagorean record, and perhaps the former should also be the choice for the last two weeks or so of the season.

The pythagorean record is a nice tool early in the season, but by the end of the season, we shouldn't be surprised to see some teams out-performing their pythagorean record and some teams under-performing their pythagorean record.

By: E-6

E-6 — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 15:50:51 +0000

Good to see that the anti-Red Sox Nation is, um, national. Funny and informed answers Mr.McClennan. Cheers!

How many of Owings AB were as a pinch hitter?

By: brianS

brianS — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 15:17:45 +0000

Jim: what effects, if any, do you think the Cactus League and the Arizona Fall League have had on the development of the baseball market in the Phoenix area?

what does the future hold for the club? I assume that The Unit is d-u-n done. And Livan is like 400 years old. Tony Clark? Will he be back? What's cooking in AAA and AA that you are excited about? What are the biggest weaknesses in the minor league system?

and most importantly, what's the latest word on the return of Bandersnatch Brew Pub?

By: Rhubarb_Runner

Rhubarb_Runner — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 15:10:46 +0000

Hadn't thought of this before, but how does having the Cactus League there in Pheonix area affect the fan base/rivalries? I know there is a big Cubs fan base w/Hohokam, and know some Brewers fans there as well.

By: Diggity Dino

Diggity Dino — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 14:54:40 +0000

Is Owings a better hitter than whoever would DH if they get to the WS? So would they in fact improve the offense by foregoing the DH?

(I understand that even if Owings is a better hitter, they shouldn't use him in lieu of the DH, as if he gets taken out, they still don't get a DH the rest of the game).

By: Jeff A

Jeff A — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 14:54:23 +0000

Any comments on ex-Twins Jeff Cirillo, Augie Ojeda, or coach Chip Hale?

By: SBG

SBG — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 13:30:47 +0000

Jim, you indicated that you lived overseas (I'm assuming that you aren't US born). How did you become a baseball fan when it's not a big sport over in Europe? And where are you living now?

By: SBG

SBG — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 13:19:24 +0000

Johan Santana hit .286/.375/.714 this year -- of course that was in only eight plate appearances. Owings had 12 extra base hits, including four home runs! Can he play third base?