ROX Girl on the Rockies

October 11th, 2007 by SBG

The NLCS has a surprising matchup this year with Colorado and Arizona hooking up in a match between two Western Division teams that came into the league back in the 1990s. I am happy to have an interview with Rox Girl, who runs the Purple Row Rockies Blog. I am hoping that she'll stop by and answer questions throughout the day. Thank you very much for helping us out, Rox Girl, and now here's the interview (after the jump).

One of the things we've talked about at SBG Nation is how amazing the run that Colorado put on to end the season. The 2006 Twins had a similar run, but they plugged in Francisco Liriano and changed the left side of their infield. So there was a big change. What the heck happened for the Rockies?

You've heard the cliche, that sometimes you have to be both lucky and good to win things? I think for a run like the Rockies are on, you have to up both of those by a few degrees, as the team has been both extremely lucky (Matt Holliday using the jedi force to touch home plate) and extremely good (we did beat around Jake freakin' Peavy and Trevor Hoffman that game) over the last three weeks. I think several key things happened in the second half to transform the team from a ho-hum mediocre NL contender into what's arguably the best team in the league. One, like your team in 2006, we've gotten a lot of help from young pitching studs, in our case it's Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Two, journeymen Josh Fogg and Mark Redman have turned into these wise old pitchers that defy logic and their given lack of abilities with the way they fool hitters now compared to two or three months ago. I don't know how long we can count on that continuing, but luckily neither may have to start in the playoffs as we get Aaron Cook back from injury this week. I think other than that, Kazuo Matsui is probably underappreciated as an offensive spark and at least fairly decent guy to get on base and cause havoc, and we got him back from injury late too. One other thing. Clint Hurdle has many faults as a manager, but he does a really good job with a deep bench, and when rosters were expanded to 40, he had the luxury of situational substituting to his heart's content. In the playoffs, he's kept it up only with a shorter bench, so we were probably lucky that we swept the Phillies and got this extra rest, as I think it was clear by game three that a lot of our key guys were running out of gas.

I'll admit it. I picked the Phillies to take the Rockies. But, in retrospect, the NL West was obviously the class of the NL. How surprised were you, though, that the Rockies absolutely dominated the Phillies?

I wrote in a post yesterday that what surprised me the most was how Philadelphia never adjusted at the plate while our pitchers were bringing a remarkably consistent approach to almost all the at bats. I gave credit to our advance scouts for finding some weaknesses our arms were able to exploit and to our catcher, Yorvit Torrealba for calling the games. When you hold the second best offense in the league to a sub .300 OBP, I just don't think you can chalk that entirely up to all these once hot Philadelphia hitters going cold at once, and you have to give credit to the Rockies pitching staff and the people who told them what they needed to do. That said, the team has been beating some very good clubs over this stretch, sweeping the Padres and the Dodgers (twice) while winning two of three against Arizona, so in that sense, that we were able to handle another good team with ease didn't surprise me much at all. People don't realize how strong the Rockies are as a baseball team. We have five of the top sixty in the MLB in VORP in our everyday lineup, our pitching is underrated and much better than people realize (lowest ERA in the NL post All-Star Break) and I think pundits overlooked that heading into the Philadelphia series.

The Rockies, surprisingly, are in the middle of the pack in runs allowed in the NL. What gives? Is it the humidor, or are the Rockies starting to develop some young pitchers?

It's part humidor, part awesome pitching, part lucky pitching, as I referred to in the first answer. I think our first three starters (and Aaron Cook once he's back) go unnoticed, particularly the two rookies, Morales and Jimenez. Morales has already broken the franchise record streak for scoreless innings (it was only 17.2, but this is Colorado we're talking about) and Jimenez followed a one hit six inning gem against the Diamondbacks on Sunday with his three hit performance against the Phillies on Saturday. Both those games were at Coors Field. Both Jimenez and Morales can dial it up to near 100 for their fastballs, but have equally impressive offspeed and breaking pitches. I've followed the Rockies since 1993, and the Rockies with the humidor since 2002, and I can tell you that we have never had a collection of pitchers like this. Like you folks had high hopes for Matt Garza, Scott Baker et al this season, I'm hoping it will only get better for the Rockies in 2008, by the way, as we have more very good arms on the way, but you know how that can go.

What should every fan know about the Rockies that only the hardcore Rockies fans know?

That humidor or no, there's an upper limit to individual scoring and hitting at altitude and for some reason, it's not that much higher than the same limit at sea level. Because of the humidor, this limit has gone down, but I still see so often comments of fans from other teams that their star player would put up .400, 60 double, 60 HR seasons at Coors and it's usually simply not true. Star players who are good at hitting anything anywhere will see a much smaller spike than an average guy who can't hit breaking pitches but can turn on fastballs (like a Dante Bichette or Vinny Castilla back in the day) at lower elevations will.

Evaluate the Rockies GM and manager. What are their strengths? What drives you crazy about them?

Dan O'Dowd put together this team, and he deserves all the credit for that. Hurdle's in game management is absolutely batty, but he's a fine motivator and he's good at bringing out the best in his players. I know I have less of an issue with O'Dowd than most Rockies fans, and while I go either way with Hurdle depending on what his latest dumb in game decision was, I really don't think he costs the team more that way than he makes up behind the scenes. Talk to me about that again after this series and I might change my mind, though.

What's the Rockies blogging community like? What are your favorite Rockies blogs? Are there ever any blogging get togethers?

Purple Row and the team at Up in the Rockies (MVN) are probably the best glass half-full types but neither totally drink the kool-aid, so I don't think we're company shills. I really like to read and I think you have to mix in the acerbic wit and skeptical eye of Mark Donohoe at Bad Altitude (Baseball Toaster) to get a more balanced perspective, however. Outside the blogs, the best forum community for the Rox is at Fanhome. We really haven't had any get togethers since there are so many far flung correspondents. Maybe we should change that.

It's been a rough patch for the Rockies before this season. What's the state of baseball in Denver overall? How much does this post season help?

This postseason couldn't come soon enough. The mobs were forming and about ready to burn down the stadium it seems in May, the city had ignored the Rockies for several years so the anger was actually kind of inspiring in its way, but our run has quieted the masses. Now, because everybody feels kind of guilty for not realizing how good this team was, they're trying to make up for it in the post-season (it has to help that the Broncos are flopping) which will certainly boost our revenue for next year as well. That's a great sign in a middle market..

The Rockies are quite familiar with the D-Backs. Give us a little scouting report. What worries you about the D-Backs?

The D-backs aren't going to be an easy team to beat. They have the single best pitcher in the series in Brandon Webb, home-field advantage (that's significant at the ChaFe) and the bullpen that could be dominating at times. Their hitters -though a little deficient in contact skills still- are all capable of hitting it out at any time, so you can't really overlook anybody in that line-up and they will make you pay for mistakes. Because of the bullpen, it only takes a couple of those mistakes to put you in a bad spot. The other starters besides Webb are lacking, at best, but the batting skills of Owings and to some extent Livan Hernandez will make it seem like you're playing against an AL team that's allowed to use the DH while you are not. Too many off days in the series will allow them to use only the Lyon and Valverde part to the pen and not the really weak parts if the starters go deep, so I'll want the Rockies to get to their starters early. I really think the D-backs are the inferior team, but they have enough advantages that make calling a Rockies win in the series tricky. I think if you play them enough, you can expose their weaknesses better, so I actually think a long six or seven game series favors us, but it would take some luck in game one against Webb for us to win a short four or five game series. These two teams will develop a very heated rivalry over the next few seasons. When you have this much talent on either side, and they will be knocking each other out of contention year after year, bitterness is bound to develop.

What do you think will happen in the NLCS?

I'm already answering this question, so I'll continue. I don't think I'll actually predict for the D-backs to collapse (as I have been doing all year, and coincidently, as I did in 2001 - I too have underrated them, but that's just because I don't like them) and instead say that they are a very good, underrated team that's impervious to collapse. I hope the Rockies win.

How about the ALCS? Who would you like to see in the World Series, assuming you get that far?

If the Rockies can get that far, I kind of would like to see Cleveland just to hear Rupert Murdoch's head explode over the ratings vacuum that the World Series will be. The Rockies already beat the Sox twice at Fenway this season (two games I went to, actually) so I'd like to see how we do up against Sabathia and Carmona now.



This entry was posted by SBG on Thursday, October 11th, 2007 at 8:00 am and is filed under MLB. It is one of 2465 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.



Comments Feed28 Letters to the Editor

SBG replied on October 11, 2007 at 8:24:28 am

Twins fans are going to cringe a little when they hear good things about Mark Redman.

 
SBG replied on October 11, 2007 at 8:28:56 am

Roxgirl, I should have asked you how you got involved with blogging and if you are living in the Denver area.

 
roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 8:34:41 am

Twins fans are going to cringe a little when they hear good things about Mark Redman.

Really, despite him actually living up to his All-Star Mark Redman alter-ego for the Rockies, I'm kind of glad he's not on the NLCS roster as every game he was in, you just wondered when he'd realize that he was just Mark Redman pitching in Colorado. Every now and then there would be glimpses of this (his very first appearance with us, for instance) and it made for many premature gray hairs down that last stretch when every game was a must win.

Since I wrote this, the Rockies NLCS roster was announced without Aaron Cook, meaning Josh Fogg starts game three and Morales starts game four. Fogg vs Livan will be an interesting matchup of a couple of guys who rely heavily on letting the good hitters to get on first or second base, and then exploiting weaker hitters for the inning ending GIDP. If you can crack through on either one of them, you'll usually score a lot, but if you can't, it can be absolutely maddening -just ask the Cubs.

 
roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 8:45:13 am

Roxgirl, I should have asked you how you got involved with blogging and if you are living in the Denver area.

I got really involved in studying baseball when I had an ex in college explain to me why the Rockies weren't really that good, and that I should root for a better team. I just wanted to be able to put down his Dodgers and sound like I knew what I was talking about. While I was able to do this, I also realized that he was right about the Rox, so I started looking at the minor leagues for help. At the time, Baseball America wasn't really writing about the exploits of Garrett Atkins, Cory Sullivan and Matt Holliday, even though they were doing pretty well, and the Denver papers didn't really cover them either. I thought this was the future of the team, so I started blogging about them and my thoughts on what the MLB club could do to improve itself while waiting. I live in Ohio right now, so admittedly, that's another reason why I want the Indians to win the ALCS.

SBG replied on October 11, 2007 at 8:54:06 am

You'll have to buy LeBron a ROX hat for the World Series!

 
Diggity Dino replied on October 11, 2007 at 9:53:13 am

So you are familiar with the minors. I know you are focused on the playoffs now but the Twins are to the offseason already. Is Garrett Atkins or Ian Stewart going to be available, and what sort of return would the Rockies like to get? Pitching or hitting, prospect or need ML-ready?

roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 10:49:08 am

Ian Stewart's going to stay with the club. We got this far by waiting until Holliday, Atkins and Hawpe developed into the players they've become, so the club can afford the same patience with a talent like Stewart. Because we made the postseason, the extra revenue and boost in season tickets next year will allow us to retain Atkins as well, so sorry about that, because before it looked like he really would be available this offseason. Now it would take some team overpaying in prospect talent to pry him away (like Jennings last year) and I doubt the Twins would want to do that.

 
 
brianS replied on October 11, 2007 at 10:04:07 am

I love this -- Revenge Sabrmetrics! Did you give him some pity se stats at the end? You know, something along the lines of "I'm sure Ned Colletti will bring in some quality veterans!" or "five straight ROYs? a World Series title is just around the corner!"???

Great stuff, Rox Girl. Thanks. And an out-of-market ROX fan! That alone might make Rupert Murdoch's head explode. Next you're gonna tell me that there are Injun fans in LA and Snakes fans in Florida or summat.

Hey, Andrew! How about extending the BKAC to BK The Bloggers?? That could be fun.

roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:04:46 am

This was before Ned -back in the days of Sherriff Malone, actually- but if I ever see the sorry bastard again, I'm sure I'll bring Colletti up. They are so lucky they have Ng and White in that front office, but even those two can't cover all of Colletti's mistakes. The Dodgers might have more young talent than both the Rox and D-backs -as well as more money- but somehow I'm confident that Ned will find a way to let us keep on winning anyway. So sad.

New Britain Bo replied on October 11, 2007 at 8:47:49 pm

Roxgirl - pls supply avatar for th' WGOM.

brianS replied on October 12, 2007 at 1:42:40 am

this one? too, I dunno, Japanese (lack o' people and critters)???

 
 
 
Andrew replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:51:34 am

I might start up "Better Know A Guest" seeing as how the BKAC pool is running a little thin (sorry about no posts this week, but no one is signed up.)

 
 
 
Rhubarb_Runner replied on October 11, 2007 at 9:56:29 am

Good God, Rox -- mentioning VORP, manager's in-game antics, knowledge of Garza and "Light Rail" Baker...uh, can I recommend a team and a blog for you to adopt in the AL? ;)

Are you pleased with your readership at Purple Row? What do you consider your blog's strengths, so to speak? Have you got your own version of "ubelmann" there to significantly raise the comment intelligence level and spur additional discussion? What sort of things do you wish you could do with your blog but haven't...yet?

SBG replied on October 11, 2007 at 10:26:37 am

In the small chance that you don't know :), ubelmann is a frequent contributor (last check: 299 posts) here who provides fantastic insights on the Twins.

 
roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 10:55:38 am

I like how the community at Purple Row has developed, and we do have several very intelligent posters. I've given free reign to user David OhNo to post what he wishes, even on the main page now, he's very sharp but he's not the only one. That reminds me, I forgot to mention one of my favorite Rockies blogs, just out of habit because she just started blogging last year, but user Silverblood at Purple Row writes a blog called Sparks of Dementia (http://sparksofdementia.blogspot.com/) that's very worth reading.

 
 
Jeff A replied on October 11, 2007 at 10:06:35 am

You discussed Mark Redman. Any comment on your other ex-Twins, LaTroy Hawkins, Ramon Ortiz, and Dan Serafini (who presumably is not on the playoff roster, either)?

roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:01:27 am

You guys are responsible for all of those? Please don't tell me you gave us Elmer Dessens, too or I'll have to hate you. Just kidding. No, like I mention, Redman was actually pretty good to us, and once we got Hawk out of high leverage spots, he's been effective as well. Ortiz and Serafini have been pretty much what you'd expect, but Ramon actually picked up the win in the clinching Padres game. I still wouldn't trust him with a ten foot pole. I know Serafini was outrighted from the roster yesterday to make room for Taveras coming off the sixty day DL, and it wouldn't surprise me if we did the same with Ortiz soon.

brianS replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:09:40 am

The Hawk is borderline All Star material in low-leverage contexts. can't you blame the Cubbies for both him and Serafini?

actually, given that he spent the last 4 years in Japan, I think this one is all on the Rox.

Ortease too. Just inexcusable to have given us a potentially useful guy like Macri for El Jardinero, even if Macri was never going anywhere in the Rox system. :-)

roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:24:21 am

Most of us agree. However, we were likely to lose Macri this offseason by the Rule 5 draft at the very latest, so the desperation of the time with injuries to our staff called for a desperate measure. I think O'Dowd was trying to have a backup plan of honorable and very messy suicide in case U-Ball and Morales weren't ready to contribute by putting them back into the minors and letting Ortiz and Redman finish out September in our rotation. When they proved more than adequate, and Ortiz proved woefully deficient against even in NL lineups, that trade became rather embarrassing.

 
 
AMR replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:46:26 am

Dessens was never a Twin. He did spend some time on the Royals with Affeldt.
Both were part of the Royal's huge trading flurry in the last week of July 2006, where they basically got rid of just about all of their veterans that were replacement level:

Gotay to the Mets,
Miekeljohn MacDougal to the WhiteSox,
Dessens to the Dodgers,
Graffanino to the Brewers,
Stairs to the Rangers,
Affeldt and Bautista to the Rockies.
M11, Sanders, and Sweeney were all injured, or they probably would have been jettisoned, too.

Sisco went to the ChiSox in the offseason.

Thus ends our KCRoyals history lessen of the day.

 
 
 
CarterHayes replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:33:01 am

Rox Girl, I'm curious to know a bit about the Rockies' scouting, particularly for the draft. What sort of organizational philosophy do they adhere to when looking for everyday players? Good doubles power to take advantage of that big outfield in Coors? Range-y outfielders? Guys that work the count to fatigue the pitcher? Are there any particular prospects in the system (other than Ian Stewart) who you're excited about?

roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 12:28:14 pm

Typically in the early rounds the Rockies will draft more polished players, but still with enough talent and upside to be an impact in the MLB. Bill Schmidt likes safer picks here, those that seem more likely to reach their ceilings because once that signing money's gone you don't get it back if the prospect crashes. For this reason, you usually won't see them take high school pitchers early. What the Rockies will do, particularly later is snatch up guys who get the "Yeah he's good, but..." label. Hitters like Atkins or Hawpe who might not have enough for first base in MLB, but certainly have enough at other positions. He really likes these relatively high contact, gap to gap college types who also display some patience. We draft them and then see if we can coax a bit more out of them. In 2007, Brian Rike, Darin Holcomb and Jordan Pacheco all exhibit these traits, and if we get just one of them to make it, we wind up ahead. Because the Rockies have a lot of patience with even college picks, you'll see that our system has a lot of "older" players putting up good numbers -like Matt Macri who we traded to you or Michael Paulk or Joe Koshansky- that Baseball America will downplay, but if you look at their skills you wonder why they haven't been promoted yet. The benefit of this slow process winds up being that we get players to the MLB level right around their 26-28 year old seasons, meaning we get peak performance at a league minimum salary. Is it fair? It probably actually gives slow developers like Ryan Spilborghs an opportunity they otherwise would never have, but it might keep someone like Brad Hawpe from getting the most money out of his baseball career, so it's a tough call. The other prototypical Schmidt pick would be like Tulo, athletic and rangy (infield or outfield) with good arms and promising, but undeveloped bats. Chris Nelson and Dexter Fowler fit this mold, and both are among my favorites in the system, as is Hector Gomez.

As for pitching, I like the Greg Reynolds and Casey Weathers picks a lot, both should be able to contribute to the team next season, and they have the ability to play key roles in our rotation and bullpen. Brandon Hynick intrigues me, as he's a cerebral pitcher who's stuff isn't fantastic, but it's decent and he really knows how to pitch already. He also should be ready next year, and we might get one more gem from our Latin system in Samuel Deduno. Sammy the Bull has a wicked cutter, and his GB and K rates are sensational. I still think he could be a terrific Mariano Rivera type of closer -his cutter could be that good in one inning situations- but the team wants to see if he can make it as a starter first, obviously.

 
 
ubelmann replied on October 11, 2007 at 11:56:10 am

Thanks for the thoughtful answers, Roxgirl.

Do you have any thoughts on how the Rockies might feel about their situation in CF going forward?

roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 12:38:33 pm

The Rockies really turned this position and shortstop around this season from absolute drags on the team to positive value. Willy Taveras is adequate, for another season or two, but I don't believe he's the type of player you want to keep deep into his arbitration seasons, and certainly not as a free agent signing. By the time the team is ready to let him go, they are hoping Fowler will have developed into his potential. Unfortunately, I remember waiting and hoping for the same thing from Choo Freeman, and while Fowler already seems steps and bounds ahead of Choo at the same stage of their careers, I know unforeseen bumps in the road can happen. I think the plan B there will be to move Chris Nelson to center, and allow speedy Eric Young Jr to take over second base. We also have Gomez waiting in the wings, and the blessing of having so many talented shortstops in the system is that it doesn't take as much mental gymnastics to imagine them playing fine defense elsewhere on the diamond.

 
 
davidwatts replied on October 11, 2007 at 5:09:01 pm

I dotn have a question, but just wnt to say the I enjoy reading Purple Row. Ive been visiting there for a couple of months now

 
SBG replied on October 11, 2007 at 5:37:34 pm

roxgirl -- Thank you so much for contributing to our fun today. We will be doing a gamelog for every game of the series... you are invited to drop by and share your knowledge of your club. I'm picking the ROX (be very afraid, I got both of the NLDS picks wrong).

roxgirl replied on October 11, 2007 at 6:20:59 pm

Thanks Everybody, and thanks to those who have visited Purple Row. I know we have Minnesota coming to Coors next May 16-18 tentatively, you guys will be able to see the team first hand against your own. Until then, I'll check out your threads, and may all your offseason wishes come true.

Rhubarb_Runner replied on October 12, 2007 at 6:53:01 am

Thanks again, Rox. And the offseason wishes -- we have a lot of them...

 
 
 

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