TOP 40 VORP: Carlos Silva
Posted by SBG on Wednesday, October 17th, 2007 at 9:41 pm
In 2003, the Minnesota Twins won their second consecutive American League Central Division championship, but they failed to get past the New York Yankees in their AL Division Series matchup. The Twins made a mid-season trade for Shannon Stewart and installed Johan Santana into the starting rotation, caught fire after the All-Star game to win the division going away. The Twins won 11 games in a row from September 13 to September 24 before losing three of four to the Detroit Tigers. That series helped the Tigers avoid 120 losses and the losing pitchers for the Twins on those three losses were the immortal Brad Thomas, the 46-year old Jesse Orosco, and flat out bust Adam Johnson. In other words, the Twins weren't trying. There was plenty of optimism for the Yankees series, so Twins fans were certainly disappointed with the result, but general manager Terry Ryan was probably wringing his hands, wondering how he was going to compete in 2004, given that he definitely had to shed some payroll. Let's just say for the record that Mr. Ryan handled that situation with aplomb. Here are a few of the moves that he made.
November 14, 2003: Traded A.J. Pierzynski and cash to the San Francisco Giants. Received Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. You might have heard of that deal.
November 20, 2003: Selected Matt Guerrier off waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates. That's worked out okay, too.
December 3, 2003: Traded Eric Milton to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received a player to be named later, Carlos Silva, and Nick Punto. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Bobby Korecky (minors) (December 17, 2003) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.
While that last deal isn't as ballyhooed as the November 14th deal, it has turned out to be a tremendous deal for the Twins. Not only did the Twins avoid a $10 million salary in 2004 for Eric Milton, who "rewarded" the Phillies with a 4.75 ERA in 201 innings in 2004 before becoming a huge millstone around the necks of the Cincinnati Reds, but they got a guy in Carlos Silva, who is now one of the TOP 40 VORP players in club history. And, incidentally, in the four seasons that Silva has pitched for the Twins, he's made less than $10 million.
Surprised? I'll admit that I am, and it does tend to make me think (along with other instances and for other reasons) that VORP isn't exactly the best measurement of a pitcher's contribution. Nevertheless, the name of this feature is TOP 40 VORP and in the number 36 spot is Carlos Silva.
More after the jump...
6'4" 225(!) LBS. Bats Right, Throws Right Born April 23, 1979 in Bolivar, Venezuela
Member of the Twins from 2004-07 Uniform #52
VORP as a Twin: 103.3 Rank: 36
| Yr | Ag | Tm | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | WP | BFP | IBB | BK | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | VORP |
| 02 | 23 | PHI | 5 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 84 | 88 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 22 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 350 | 6 | 0 | 3.21 | 118 | 1.31 | |
| 03 | 24 | PHI | 3 | 1 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 87.3 | 92 | 43 | 43 | 7 | 37 | 48 | 8 | 12 | 381 | 5 | 1 | 4.43 | 93 | 1.48 | |
| 04 | 25 | MIN | 14 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 255 | 100 | 95 | 23 | 35 | 76 | 5 | 5 | 869 | 2 | 1 | 4.21 | 112 | 1.43 | 38.1 |
| 05 | 26 | MIN | 9 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188.3 | 212 | 83 | 72 | 25 | 9 | 71 | 3 | 0 | 749 | 2 | 0 | 3.44 | 128 | 1.17 | 38.4 |
| 06 | 27 | MIN | 11 | 15 | 36 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 180.3 | 246 | 130 | 119 | 38 | 32 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 811 | 4 | 0 | 5.94 | 75 | 1.54 | -7.6 |
| 07 | 28 | MIN | 13 | 14 | 33 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 229 | 99 | 94 | 20 | 36 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 848 | 2 | 1 | 4.19 | 106 | 1.31 | 35.5 |
| Twins | 47 | 45 | 129 | 124 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 773.6 | 942 | 412 | 380 | 106 | 112 | 306 | 19 | 10 | 3277 | 10 | 2 | 4.42 | 1.36 | 104.4 | |||
| Other | 8 | 1 | 130 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 171.3 | 180 | 77 | 73 | 11 | 59 | 89 | 12 | 15 | 731 | 11 | 1 | 3.84 | 1.40 | ||||
| Career | 55 | 46 | 259 | 125 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 944.9 | 1122 | 489 | 453 | 117 | 171 | 395 | 31 | 25 | 4008 | 21 | 3 | 4.31 | 102 | 1.37 | |||
Silva also has a VORP of -1.1 as a hitter.
It wasn't only the avoidance of Eric Milton's salary that made this trade such a winner. Silva, who had just one start among his 130 appearances over two years with the Phillies, was installed into the starting rotation, with extremely positive results. Silva gave the Twins 203 innings in 2004 with an ERA+ 112. Silva had a low strikeout rate (a paltry 3.4K/9IP in 2004), but his walk total was low, too, and he had a FIP of 4.44 and an xFIP of 4.78. His ERA in 2004, though, was 4.21.
In 2005, while the Twins as a club were hugely disappointing, Silva was anything but. Early in the season, Silva had a knee injury and it was feared that he'd miss the season. Instead, he had a short stint on the DL and came back with a vengeance. In 188 innings, Silva walked just 9 batters. His strikeout rate was low, but he logged a 3.44 ERA, despite peripherals that suggested he wasn't quite that good. Nevertheless, he had a reputation of being a tough competitor, having pitched through a knee injury for basically the entire season.
In 2006, things came crashing down for Carlos. His ERA ballooned to 5.94 and he was banished to the bullpen for a while. Worse yet, though, his toughness was questioned. On more than one occasion, Silva came out of games with extremely low pitch counts. On September 4, Silva was removed from a game in which he had thrown just 59 pitches through six innings. Silva had allowed just one hit and one walk, but came out with an upset stomach. The Twins bullpen gave up four runs and the Twins lost. The Twins' brain trust was not amused.
"It caught everybody off-guard," Minnesota pitching coach Rick Anderson said. "He was pretty much cruising. In the sixth inning, he was outstanding. Yeah, it caught everybody off-guard. It's disappointing. He was throwing the ball outstanding. You know, this time of year everybody is hurt and beat up. What do you do?"
Personally, I was wondering what was going on. Here was a guy who had been presented to the masses as a Warrior in 2005, and now he was characterized as somewhat of a malingerer. The 2006 season was one to forget for Carlos Silva. He had a terrible season and had acquired a reputation as a softie. Not good. But, just how bad was Silva's season as compared to the previous two?
| Year | RA | FIP | FIP-ERA | xFIP | LD% | GB% | IF/F | K/G | BB/G | HR/G | *HR/F | P/PA | LOB% |
| 2004 | 4.43 | 4.44 | 0.23 | 4.78 | 17.9% | 50.5% | 12.90% | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.03 | 12.0% | 3.3 | 74.2% |
| 2005 | 3.97 | 4.17 | 0.73 | 4.16 | 19.6% | 49.2% | 6.30% | 3.6 | 0.5 | 1.28 | 13.7% | 3.1 | 74.6% |
| 2006 | 6.49 | 5.81 | -0.13 | 5.09 | 22.2% | 43.6% | 6.80% | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.81 | 17.5% | 3.3 | 66.9% |
Yep, that 2006 was his worst to date as a Twin, but look at his walk and strikeout rates. They were almost exactly equal to his 2004 campaign. But with fewer ground balls, more line drives, and a much higher home run rate, it seems apparent that Silva's sinker was not sinking. The question is, would Silva be the Silva of 2004-05 or the Silva of 2006 in 2007.
As it turns out, Silva had another very effective season in 2007. The 2007 campaign was extremely close to the 2004 campaign. He pitched just one fewer inning in 2007 and his ERA was within 0.02 of his 2004 campaign. His FIP was 4.35, better than the 2004 4.44. His xFIP was 4.67, slightly less than 2004's 4.78. Silva had returned to his pre 2006 form. Silva's VORP in the 2004, 2005, and 2007 seasons were remarkably similar: 38, 38, and 35. It appears that Silva will continue to be an effective starting pitcher. Of course, Silva is now a free agent.
With three very effective seasons, Silva has moved into the TOP 40 list. If Silva resigns with the Twins for three seasons and has three more 30+ VORP seasons, he would have a higher VORP than Torii Hunter. Is is possible that Carlos Silva is potentially more valuable to the Twins than Torii Hunter? Hunter's 2007 season, a career best offensive effort, netted him 39.2 VORP, his second season ever over 30 VORP. Silva now has three seasons with over 35 VORP. Of course, VORP doesn't account for defense, but still, Silva has been a deceptively valuable player for the Twins, which will make the decision to go after Silva a difficult one (and by the way, Carlos is going to be a rich man).
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There is a huge gap between "league-average starter" and replacement-level pitcher, is there not? Carlos has been a solid, league-average starter with the Twins.
That's correct. There is a pretty large gap. Still, are you not stunned by his inclusion on this list? He's, by my count, the fifteenth best pitcher by VORP in club history. And this is a guy who I was not especially happy to see on the 25 man roster on Opening Day.
Kyle Lohse better not be in the top 20!
Perhaps Lohse's 2001 season will make it?
Maybe his 2002 season?
I would check the VORP, but my BP subscription ran out.
Lohse had three pretty good VORP seasons ('02, '03, and '05) and had a Twins VORP (as a pitcher) of 92. That's not good enough for the TOP 40, but it's not that far off.
Had he performed as he did in 2006 and 2007 for the Twins, though, I'd be profiling him on this list.
Don't worry. There'll be no effusive praise of Mr. Lohse in this series.
did you say "effusive" or "elusive"???
I understand that Lohse was a prick, but it's not like he was a big problem when he was around. He was cheap and he was good for a #4/#5 pitcher. Dude needed a better publicist or a hug or something.
hmm, 15th best in club history.
Not in exact order or anything, but: Bert, Bradke, Johan, Kaat, Pascual, Perry, Frankie V, Goltz, Tap, Dave Boswell... The ranks of starters with any tenure to speak of get thin quickly.
relievers Aggie, Perranoski, Guardado, Nathan, ??? Not many others with the combination of excellence and time-in-uniform to choose from.
but I certainly agree with your sentiment. He's done a ton this year to convert "he sucks" to "he had one aberrant year".
I'm still only really irritated about Ramon Ortiz's contract and the Twins' decision not to send Ponson to Rochester. Even then, they were all one-year deals and not anything that was going to cripple the organization. Silva had enough of a history that 2006 could reasonably have been considered an outlier. You need more than five pitchers in case you get injuries, and Santana, Silva, Garza, Baker, Bonser, Slowey, Perkins, with Ponson as an emergency backup would have been a good group of eight. As it turned out Perkins got injured and Slowey probably wouldn't have been all that effective this year, but keeping Ponson around in case of another injury wouldn't have been such a bad idea.
But Ponson was coming off of bone chip surgery in his elbow and should've been given more time to tune up before the Twins put him up against major league hitters--and he was signed to a minor league contract and didn't need to be put in the rotation. And Ortiz, ugh, at least we got Macri out of him, but I think we could've probably done the same thing with Ponson if we'd made him the groundskeeper.
Despite having just his second lowest GB% over the last four years, Silva allowed a tiny 9.6 HR per FB...that's nearly half of what he suffered in 2006 in which his GB% was very average.
Based on the numbers, it may be safe to say that Silva's 2006 season is a bit of an outlier.
I, too, think the 2006 season is an outlier. I think Silva will perform much closer to his other seasons over the next three seasons. At 28 years old, he's gonna make a lot of money.
Look at the contract Pineiro got.
I think both Lohse and Silva, assuming they hit the open market which is looking like a great possibility, will make some bank.
Pineiro's contract was just ridiculous. It's like if the Twins had offered Ramon Ortiz 2 years and $13M.
That guy Terry, what's his last name again??..just a little ahead of the curve with his man lover for Silva with good reason I guess.
Yep, kudos to old what's his name on the decision to bring back Silva for 2007.
Unfortunately, Silva should have been traded at the break. He probably could have netted us a decent propspect. Let's just hope that the fact that we got him at a steal doesn't force Bill Smith to make him an albatross.
He should be a B level Free Agent, and I can't imagine why the Twins wouldn't offer him arbitration, so he should net at least a sandwich pick, correct?
I think the Twins absolutely offer him arbitration, regardless. But, will he be a B level free agent? His 2006 performance hurts the Twins chances, I believe. I guess we'll see.
Good question... upon further review, I suppose he might not be... last year he ranked 49th out of 81 qualifying AL pitchers. Assuming 80 pitchers again this year, he would have to be top 32 to be in the top 40%. Unfortunately, he's probably going to be somewhat in the same ballpark again, considering his 2007 season replaces his 2005 season. That helps him in wins, innings, and strikeouts, but hurts in ERA and WHIP. I guess it depends on what factors the formula uses.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2006-10-31-elias-rankings.htm
I think Silva will get one of those GilMeche contracts where it's big and spendy and acey, and everybody is aghast. "5y/$55M for Carlos Silva???!?!?!" And then he ends up being sortof worth it anyways.
I loved him his first year (and more his second year) because I was slowly getting back into baseball and I had never had the enjoyment of a sinkerballer before. Counting baserunners at first as outs cos you know the DP is coming. For some SethSpeaks contest, I wrote a short essay about he was my favorite Twin.
The three pitch inning against the Angels... with a hit!
The modern records for fewest pitches in a CG (9inn) and fewest walks in a season.
I will be cheering lots for him at his new team.
I remember the 3 pitch inning being against the Brewers, but there could have been two or I could be wrong. He doesn't have the modern record for fewest pitches in a CG, unless you're only counting the new millenium as "modern". I know Maddux has done it in fewer.
I thought so, too, with Maddux but I think actually Silva does have the record.
Per Baseball-Reference...
Maddux's low for a CG appears to be 80 pitches against the Pirates in 1998.
Silva had the 74 pitch outing against Milwaukee in 2005, but that appears to have been tied by Aaron Cook against San Diego in July of this year.
I checked via Google, and it looks like someone had the idea after Cook's game: fewest pitches in a CG according to B-R. Maddux comes in at fifth now with 76. But the presumed record is 58 by Red Barrett.
That's a pretty cool list. I think it's interesting that Jon Lieber had 4 pitches more than Silva and had one more walk (a six-pitch walk to Juan Castro in the 9th) than Silva (who didn't have any walks).
I'm also pretty sure the 3 pitch inning was against the Angels; wasn't it part of his complete game 11 hit/2 walk shutout, when Silva got 6 DPs?
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2004/B08030MIN2004.htm
Nope. No three pitch innings in that game.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playbyplay?gameId=240803109&full=1
I win!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playbyplay?gameId=250520109&full=1
Fan favorite Jeff Cirillo took part of that inning.
Silva had another 3 pitch inning here.
I think Silva will get one of those GilMeche contracts where it’s big and spendy and acey, and everybody is aghast. “5y/$55M for Carlos Silva???!?!?!” And then he ends up being sortof worth it anyways.
I agree that he'll get one of those contracts that shocks everyone this winter, and he might turn out to be worth it for a year or two, but I still wouldn't trust him to hold up for the duration of his new deal. This year he was essentially an average pitcher--with a 3.97 K/9. He'll have trouble sustaining even an average performance if he's not missing more bats.
He depends too much on his fine control and limiting home runs. Some years, like in 2006, the opp avg will jump up on him and he'll give up more jacks than he can afford. And whenever he starts to lose some of his command or a little something on his pitches, I think Silva's career decline will be quick and severe.
By 2010, if everyone doesn't think he's a millstone on some team's payroll, I'll be surprised.
I think it kind of depends. For instance, if a team with a $150M payroll had signed Gil Meche to a $55M/5yr deal, I wouldn't have thought it so crazy. Meche isn't a great pitcher, but he's decent, and if you have 10-12 of your roster spots tied up at $2M/player or less, that gives you ~$120M for the remaining 13-15 roster spots. The problem, as I see it, for the Royals is that they don't have $120M to spend on 13-15 roster spots, they have more like $50M to spend on 13-15 roster spots, and Meche is taking up a big chunk of that right now.
I wouldn't necessarily blame, say, Boston for going out and grabbing Silva as a Tavarez/Wakefield replacement, because I think it would be really hard for them to sign Silva to a contract that would meaningfully keep the team from competing. Even if they signed Silva to a 5yr/$75M contract (which is probably more than Silva will get), and he went all Carl Pavano on them, it's just the difference between having a $150M payroll and a $135M payroll. Obviously it'd be easier for them to compete if Silva's a league average pitcher while he's under contract, but it's not like he could single-handedly sink the ship the way he could for a team with a smaller payroll.
Having that kind of payroll to throw around is just a massive advantage over teams with $70M payrolls, and it's the main reason I'm sick of hearing about how bad J.D. Drew is. Maybe he gets paid more than Tyner, but who cares? A 15-run edge is a 15-run edge, and you don't get shinier rings for winning with a lower payroll.
Having that kind of payroll to throw around is just a massive advantage over teams with $70M payrolls, and it’s the main reason I’m sick of hearing about how bad J.D. Drew is.
True, but then a few expensive mediocrities and flops can add up to create roster problems even for the richer clubs.
It also helps the Red Sox that their most expensive player is a truly great hitter and that some of their less expensive players have been such a tremendous value. When Manny is hurt or disinterested, as it is, the team has problems. If David Ortiz also were just a good platoon DH who seemed to be hurt half the time, which is what he was when Boston signed him, could they shrug off their expensive mistakes so easily?
IMO, Boston should save their money and give Lester and Buchholz a chance to fill the back end of the rotation. Meanwhile, spend the big bucks on special players or sink it back into the scouting and farm systems.
If I were Silva's agent, I'd keep him the hell away from places like Fenway Park, too.
True, but then a few expensive mediocrities and flops can add up to create roster problems even for the richer clubs.
Even then, expensive mediocrities tend to be better than inexpensive mediocrities.
When Manny is hurt or disinterested, as it is, the team has problems.
I think you could probably say the same thing about most teams when its best hitter is hurt or disinterested. And for all the supposed problems that Manny's absences cause, the Red Sox won 96 games this year and had the best run differential in all of baseball.
Anyway, I don't necessarily think the Red Sox should sign Silva, I just wanted to point out that I think payroll size is a big factor in whether or not a player is overpaid.
You just want to see him in a Mariners uniform!!!!
After last year, there is no way I give him a big contract if I'm Bill Smith. His peripheral numbers are not decent at all. We have plenty of pitchers below with far more upside.
by "peripherals" you basically mean K/9, right? Because his numbers this year look a heck of a lot like his 2004 numbers. Not as good as the 2005 positive outlier, much better than the 2006 negative outlier.
and remember, he was at his absolute worst last year under the Cubanista regime (season-worst 10.31 ERA in April's 5 starts). Mebbe a bit of his improvement this year reflects better infield defense?
although I should also note that he allowed 10 HRs in those 5 April starts. The Cubanistas didn't have much to do with those.
I am beginning to wonder if he wasn't hurt in 2006. Lots of questions about his toughness (after a year in which he was a bulldog), diminished results, and followed by a return in 2007 to his pre-2006 form.
I am beginning to wonder if he wasn’t hurt in 2006.
Could be. If so, it's likely to happen again at some point in the next 5 years, don't you think?
So considering the risk-reward, if you're a GM, how much would you be willing to bet that Silva isn't going to get hurt or decline for any other reason in the next 3-5 seasons?
I think you are probably right -- there will probably be some decline. Plus, if there's one position where the Twins have good, cheap alternatives, it is in the rotation. If I had been the GM, I would have dealt Silva at the deadline, even if it meant nothing more than a single low-level prospect. He's probably not going to be a "B" level free agent and I wouldn't sign him to anything more than a three year deal, unless years four and five were vested by performance or a club option.
But, someone will give him more. Count on it.
by “peripherals” you basically mean K/9, right? Because his numbers this year look a heck of a lot like his 2004 numbers. Not as good as the 2005 positive outlier, much better than the 2006 negative outlier.
So, in other words, half of his career as a starter is an "outlier"? Looks like a red flag to me.
K/9 is a very important factor to consider in predicting future performance. If he needs a good defense, a friendly pitcher's park, exceptionally fine control and a lot of double plays just to be an average pitcher, that should spell trouble for a lot of teams.
So, in other words, half of his career as a starter is an “outlier”? Looks like a red flag to me.
When two seasons is half of his career, that wouldn't especially alarm me.
I think you could make a good case for Silva being essentially as good as Jeff Suppan these days. Suppan has an edge on Silva in K/9 (but not by much after you adjust for league), and Silva has an edge on Suppan in BB/9. Both pitchers rely on their defense a lot, but with an average defense can be league average pitchers. (It's really tough to say Silva had anything significantly different than an average defense behind him this year.) I wouldn't have given Suppan $42M/4yr on the Brewers' payroll, and I wouldn't give Silva that much either, but guys like that can be useful to have around.
I wouldn’t have given Suppan $42M/4yr on the Brewers’ payroll, and I wouldn’t give Silva that much either, but guys like that can be useful to have around.
Useful, sure, but you have to consider the cost. Especially if that contract and others like it prevent the GM from acquiring better alternatives to fill team needs. And how many GMs can really afford to waste that kind of money without it affecting the rest of the roster?
Regardless of budget, when a team has some low-cost pitchers like Chris Capuano, David Bush, and Claudio Vargas to fill out the #3-5 spots in the rotation, does it really need to be throwing a big contract at the likes of a Suppan/Silva? How much does a guy like that really help?
Cot's says that Suppan got $6m this year, plus a $1m signing bonus; and he posted a 12-12 record with 96 ERA+. Next year he'll get $8m. I don't know how much the team really needed him, but I guess that's not so awful. You could say he ate some innings, didn't suck, and didn't cripple the budget this season. But how useful will Suppan seem in 2009-10, his arm being 2-3 years older, and he's due to collect $12.5m per? If the Brewers can't trade him to a team that isn't on his limited no-trade list (of 8 teams) for the 2009 season, he may end up creating more of a problem than he's worth.
Regardless of budget, when a team has some low-cost pitchers like Chris Capuano, David Bush, and Claudio Vargas to fill out the #3-5 spots in the rotation, does it really need to be throwing a big contract at the likes of a Suppan/Silva?
You need to think more than 5 pitchers deep. It's silly to plan on going through the season with five pitchers. Most teams have at least 6 guys who get 10+ starts and 7 guys who get 5+ starts over the course of a season. Start out the season with Sheets, Suppan, Capuano, Bush, and Vargas, and then when one of them gets hurt, you can call up Gallardo. Otherwise, you're looking at starting the season with Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Vargas, and Gallardo in the rotation and ???? when one of them gets hurt.
Now, with the Brewers' payroll, I think they should have probably been exploring other options for the guy to fill Suppan's role. But do you really think, for instance, that the Yankees regret paying Roger Clemens ~$17M for his 100 innings of essentially league-average pitching?
How much does a guy like that really help?
Silva had a 35 VORP this season and Suppan had a 23 VORP this season. If you suppose that Silva replaces Tomko and Loaiza in the Dodgers' rotation this last year, that's something like 4 wins. Now, if a couple of those extra wins come at the expense of the Rockies or the Padres, things are more interesting in the NL West. (And there were only 45 pitchers in baseball with a better VORP than Silva this year. Most of the guys above him are never going to really be free agents because they will be re-signed by their club, or they'll get hurt before they hit free agency.
Guys like this are roughly the pitching equivalent of Casey Blake. Is Casey Blake going to save your team single-handedly? No. But having a guy like Blake around provides insurance against having to trot out a replacement-level or sub-replacement-level player day after day after day. On a low budget, you can't afford to pay these guys a whole lot, but on a big budget, what else are you really going to spend your money on? There are only so many superstars who ever hit the free agent market, and only the very highest bidders are going to get the top superstars. So you have to spend your money elsewhere. It might not be sexy, but if it means you don't have to use a guy like Nick Punto or Brett Tomko, it can be worthwhile.
If the Brewers can’t trade him to a team that isn’t on his limited no-trade list (of 8 teams) for the 2009 season, he may end up creating more of a problem than he’s worth.
Sure, because they have a $70M payroll. The Yankees paid Carl Pavano $10M this year and were the second-best team in all of baseball. You win some, you lose some, but if you have a huge budget and you sit around waiting for the perfect investments, you'll be missing out on small ways to improve your club here and there.
You need to think more than 5 pitchers deep. It’s silly to plan on going through the season with five pitchers.
I didn't suggest that. I said it's a waste to spend a lot of money on a mediocre pitcher when the club already had plenty of that at a cheaper cost.
Besides Suppan, 6 other pitchers made starts for the Brewers this year (Manny Parra made 2 starts); 4 veterans, 2 rookies. To fill out the rotation to begin the season, they might have 1) tried a rookie in the 5th slot, 2) made a trade for more talent, 3) budgeted to sign a true quality #2 starter, or 4) sign veteran filler to cheap, one-year deals.
Instead, the GM stuck himself with Suppan's multi-year deal, which is probably going to create a payroll problem in a couple years when his team has matured and some quality upgrades may be available on the market, just to address a "depth" issue this season which wasn't a pressing problem.
That's a mistake not only for the Brewers, but the vast majority of teams would be hurting themselves with moves like that.
But do you really think, for instance, that the Yankees regret paying Roger Clemens ~$17M for his 100 innings of essentially league-average pitching?
The Yankees are in a unique class unto themselves. Not even the Red Sox or Mets really can compare to the resources and budget at Cashman's disposal.
Even so, the Yankees were in a desperate spot, so they spent a boatload to get a Future HOF'er who had posted a 2.30 ERA for Houston in 2006... and, yeah, I think they probably were disappointed to only get a 6-6 record and 4.18 ERA in 99 IP out of him, before he had to leave his only postseason start in the 3rd inning because of a bad hammy. I doubt that's what they had in mind when they drew up the papers.
Guys like this are roughly the pitching equivalent of Casey Blake.
Except Casey Blake is the perfect example of the cheap, "freely available talent" who makes good on a chance to play every day. The Indians invested relatively nothing to take him on after the Twins gave up on him; and even since proving himself a decent hitter who can start in RF or 3B, he still only cost the team a few million this year. That's exactly the sort of player a smart GM hopes to find to plug a few roster holes, rather than signing the expensive mediocrities.
I hear what you're trying to say. If a club has a big budget but no realistic alternatives to a Suppan/Silva, it's probably not going to kill the team to have them around. In a best case, that kind of pickup may be a small help. But I'd guess that most teams with any hopes of contending do have cheaper, realistic alternatives to fill out the back end of the rotation or the last couple spots in the lineup--and some of the younger alternatives may even have better upside. If a GM gets into the habit of acquiring expensive mediocrities to fill momentary holes, which either blocks young talent or prevents the club from bidding on premium talent, I think it's going to end up hurting just about any club in the end.
Considering what Boston paid J.D. Drew, I think they have a right to be disappointed in his performance, so far. If he's also blocking Jacoby Ellsbury, or his contract prevents the club from bidding on one of the big free agent CF's this winter, then his presence on the roster is a real problem.
So, in other words, half of his career as a starter is an “outlier”?
that's one way to read his record. I think a fairer one would be to say that his 2004 and 2007 seasons are quite representative of his central tendency. 2005 shows the upper limits of his performance and 2006 the lower limits.
He's got variance in his record precisely because of the type of pitcher he is. With low K/9, he's got a narrow margin for success. But if you look, for example, at his DERA stats, he's been quite consistent with the notable exception of 2006.
is there a source for spray charts for pitchers?? MLB.com has hitter spray charts, but I don't see the same for pitchers.
I was curious as to just how vulnerable Silva would be in a place like Fenway.
This won't include 2007, but it's something.
I think a fairer one would be to say that his 2004 and 2007 seasons are quite representative of his central tendency.
How can you really feel sure of that, considering the size of the sample and how much of it you're willing to call an outlier?
He’s got variance in his record precisely because of the type of pitcher he is. With low K/9, he’s got a narrow margin for success.
Which is why he's bound to fall off the beam, right? Even when conditions are optimal and he's pitching at his best, his DERA in 3 of 4 years suggests he should only be an average pitcher. He needs some extraordinary breaks to be very good. Considering that pitchers tend to get sore arms, or pitch with worse injuries, and that balls in play don't reliably find a friendly glove, you can't really count on the optimal Silva. So what do you have when he's not lucky or feeling at his best? Why should any GM really want to commit to a guy like that?
No argument. He's an "average" starting pitcher, not a "good" starting pitcher, by our more-or-less-shared universal standards of quality.
but in today's market, where a Gil Meche (whose preceding FOUR CONSECUTIVE seasons' DERAs were 4.77 or worse, whereas Silva has had precisely one career year with a DERA higher than Meche's best in that set) could pull big money, our idea of "average" is quite patently highly valued.
I mean, seriously. Silva, Meche, Jeff Suppan, Joel Pineiro. With a gun to your head, which one do you give the 4-year, $60 million deal to?
and no, I'm not advocating giving that kind of scratch to any of those guys. 2 years, $13 million for Pineiro?? That has to be the basement for Silva, doesn't it?
I think it is the basement. Silva, as I said in the post, is going to be a VERY RICH MAN. Very Rich. That's why he should have been traded at the deadline. Very poor work by Mr. Ryan.
our idea of “average” is quite patently highly valued.
Oh, I have no doubt he'll get richly rewarded this winter. But I guess we may disagree on whether he's likely to maintain "average" standards of performance over the next 3-5 years. OK.
I mean, seriously. Silva, Meche, Jeff Suppan, Joel Pineiro. With a gun to your head, which one do you give the 4-year, $60 million deal to?
Given the options, clearly the terrorists have already won.