Torii Hunter: “Stuff” Needs to Change for Him to Sign with Twins
Posted by SBG on Thursday, October 25th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
It's not about the $75-$80 million, according to Torii:
"There's other stuff, inside stuff, that people don't know about," Hunter told the paper. "Money has something to do with it, but trust me, that's just a percentage. We need to talk about stuff that needs to change before we start to get into deep talks."
I can only guess what this stuff is. What exactly has to change before he's willing to take his $15 million a year? Any guesses? Perhaps he needs a kneeler installed in front of his locker for the young guys to submit themselves to him before each game. Perhaps he's not happy that Top Jimmy writes only one column a week during the season extolling his virtues. Or perhaps he's trying to make it seem that it's not about the money when it actually is all about the money.
Oh, come on, Torii. Please tell us what the "stuff" is. Pretty please?
Oh sure. Now you shut your mouth.
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I'm guessing he would like some input on personnel decisions, which includes assurances that the club will not only pay him big bucks but plans to pay Santana and bring in some other fairly expensive players as well.
Based on Joe C's latest blog entry, this definitely seems like the "stuff" Hunter is referring to.
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I mean, obviously he cares about the money. If the ring was literally the only thing that mattered to him, he'd sign for as little as possible so that whatever team he signs with could add an extra greedy bastard for him to play with. But in addition to the money, I don't doubt that he wants a ring.
The history of players trying to choose their franchise based on whether or not they will win a WS seems spotty at best. There are some teams that you can look at and say pretty surely they won't be competing for anything soon (Baltimore comes to mind), but sometimes you just don't know. A situation could look great, then a couple of key players could suffer career-threatening injuries, or the young talent doesn't quite match up with the free agent acquisitions with the right timing, or you wind up having three bad games out of five in the first round and you're done.
I'm really eager for Torii's free agent media posturing to end.
If the ring was literally the only thing that mattered to him, he'd sign for as little as possible so that whatever team he signs with could add an extra greedy bastard for him to play with.
Right, but what he really wants is to get paid fair market value AND to see the Twins increase total payroll to bring in more veteran talent.
It's been an ongoing theme with Torii for several years. Every time the club lets a veteran leave the fold, to be replaced by younger, cheaper talent, he bitches to the press about it. After the trade deadline last July, it was clear that some other Twins, like Santana, also have come to believe that the club is never going to win a pennant until management commits to spending more money.
In general, I don't think Hunter and Santana are wrong. The trouble is, in specific cases, players are often poor judges of how the club should be spending its money. I'm sure Torii would have been happy if the Twins had re-signed Jacque Jones to a multi-year deal, but of course that wouldn't have been exactly the most efficient use of the club's resources.
There are some teams that you can look at and say pretty surely they won't be competing for anything soon (Baltimore comes to mind), but sometimes you just don't know.
On the other side of the coin, Pudge Rodriguez signing with Florida, then Detroit, also comes to mind. Both times, he was roundly mocked for dooming himself to play for a sure loser in order to grab the most money he could get on the market.
Meanwhile, Jim Thome left Cleveland for Philadelphia because, in addition to the allure of a bigger contract, he said he believed that Philly offered him a more immediate chance to play for a championship. A few years later, he suffers a back injury, the Phillies develop a young 1B who takes his job away, and now he's in Chicago playing for a 4th place team. He hasn't even been to the playoffs since he jilted the team which almost won the AL pennant last week.
Of course, when it comes to jettisoning older, more expensive guys for cheaper alternatives, the Twins have done remarkably well. Their problem has been with signing retreads like Batista and Ortiz and expecting something out of them. But, as far as letting expensive guys go, they've done pretty well.
Yeah, I think the one guy they haven't been able to effectively replace is Corey Koskie. And yet it seems like their window for competing for a pennant has effectively closed for the foreseeable future, unless Bill Smith gets a bigger budget and swears off the crappy retreads that TR favored to fill in holes.
Even so, the decision to pass on Koskie was not a bad one. He was injury prone, and he got hurt a lot, even without the unfortunate concussion.
TR made the right call on letting Koskie go, but his failure to adequately replace the ol' woodchopper has been a huge blow.
From 2001-4, these were Koskie's VORP values:
2001: 40.4
2002: 29.0
2003: 39.3
2004: 19.5
And of course the WGOM has a constant reminder of what the Twins 3B was worth this season....
I'm not totally against the idea that the Orioles could at some point be contenders, but Detroit and Florida didn't have anything like the Yankees and Red Sox to go up against. Additionally, Tampa has managed to acquire an awful lot of talent lately, and the Blue Jays are a decent team. I admit I'm not all that up on the Orioles' farm system, but it doesn't seem like you hear much about it, either.
Anyway, it seems like we basically agree that it's not really worth the trouble to try to predict whether or not your future club is going to win a WS.
After the trade deadline last July, it was clear that some other Twins, like Santana, also have come to believe that the club is never going to win a pennant until management commits to spending more money.
In general, I don't think Hunter and Santana are wrong.
I think that depends on what exactly you think their stance is. If you think they believe the Twins definitely won't win anything unless they spend more money, then I disagree. But if you think they believe that the Twins are going to be at a disadvantage until they can spend more money, then I agree. I feel like I've been espousing the idea that money matters in team building a lot lately. It ain't everything, but it's a weapon that--when used properly--can be extremely effective. You can win a WS without a top payroll, but it's harder. I think the Twins have enough resources right now that without significantly increasing payroll, they can be fringe contenders, and maybe get lucky and win a WS, especially if they make some smart moves. But if I had to put money down on the team most likely to win a WS over the next five years, it wouldn't be the Twins.
[Thome] hasn't even been to the playoffs since he jilted the team which almost won the AL pennant last week.
This is what I find funniest about the situation:
$6.3M -- Hafner
$3M -- Martinez
$380K -- Garko
$14M -- Thome
Even if Thome would have been amenable to taking a smaller contract to stay with Cleveland, I think it's reasonable to say that the Indians are better off at DH/1B right now than they would have been with Thome around taking up ~$9-10M/year.
I think the Twins have enough resources right now that without significantly increasing payroll, they can be fringe contenders, and maybe get lucky and win a WS, especially if they make some smart moves. But if I had to put money down on the team most likely to win a WS over the next five years, it wouldn't be the Twins.
That's fair. Next year, they need to get lucky with Liriano returning to pitch well, at least by the 2nd half. They need Kubel to have a breakout season to essentially replace Torii in the batting order. They need Garza and/or Baker to step up for the full season. They need Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer to play to the best of their abilities. And I think they need at least a couple more good bats. If Smith doesn't spend much money to fill some lineup holes, he needs to be very lucky or smart.
After next year, if Santana leaves the fold, I don't know. It would seem awfully tough for a club with a middling budget to recover from a loss like that, unless they're lucky enough to have Liriano or Garza pitching like Cy Young for a few years after Santana is gone.
frightwig, you've summarized pretty well, but I think Smith also needs to look at adding some bench depth, besides the holes in the lineup. Gardy didn't have much available when he needed to go to the well this year.
After next year, if Santana leaves the fold, what really is the expected effect on the club?
Not to discount Santana's greatness, but he starts ~35 games per year. Over his career he's won at a 68 pct clip with decisions in about 3/4ths of his starts. Figure that the Twins win about half of his no-decisions and that works out to about a 63-64 pct win rate in his starts.
With all the pitching depth the Twins have in their system, I'd have to imagine that they could replace Santana's start with at least a league-average starter. I'm thinking that a 2009 rotation featuring Liriano, Garza, Baker, Slowey and Perkins (or replace the last two with your favorite two from the farm system) probably would be one of the top 5 rotations in the AL.
so the problem still is going to be finding sufficient offense to give the pitching staff a margin.
Here were the 2007 sOPS+ figures for the lineup, compared to cleveland's (by position)
Bartlett: 86 Peralta: 103
Kubel: 106 Pronk: 121
Mauer: 114 Martinez: 131
Hunter: 119 Sizemore: 125
Morneau: 118 Garko: 121
Cuddyer: 108 Gutierrez: 106
Punto: 51 Blake: 104
Casilla: 37 Cabrera: 105
Tyner: 82 Lofton: 107
Obviously, Cleveland had one of the better offenses in the league this year (6th in the AL in runs, 5th in both OBP and SLG). 60 more HRs and 78 more BBs than the Twins on the year. Getting another 20-30 pts of SLG and 10-20 pts of OBP out of the lineup should be a priority for Smith.
Assume (1) an extra 175-200 PA for Kubel; (2) Punto/Casilla/whoever can achieve something like an sOPS+ of 80-85 at 2b next year and (3) a 3b can be found to put up an sOPS+ of 80-85. Those three changes alone would go a long way toward fixing what ails the offense.
Recent vintage Santana's given the Twins roughly 220 innings pitched at an ERA of ~3.00. This is how much he's worth marginally depending on about what you think they can get for ERA in his innings (which aren't the innings going to Garza and Liriano--who will be around either way--but rather the innings that go to the 5/6th starters that get extra starts in the rotation because the ace is gone, or a potential free agent pitcher who will probably suck.)
4.50 -- 37 runs
4.75 -- 43 runs
5.00 -- 49 runs
5.25 -- 55 runs
That's a lot of runs to replace, and I think that a 4.50 ERA in replacing Santana's innings is wildly optimistic. Also, not having him around likely puts a greater toll on the bullpen because he has been able to pitch so many innings. (Meaning that his effect extends somewhat beyond the 35 games he starts.)
Consider that in 2006, the Twins had 3 players with 45 or more BRAR: Cuddyer (49), Morneau (64), Mauer (65). The Hafners this year also had just 3 players with 45 or more BRAR: Hafner (48), Martinez (54), and Sizemore (61). Garko was at 37, Blake at 31, Peralta at 30. Considering that Martinez is an average at best defender, and Hafner has zero defensive value, I don't think it's too unreasonable to say that Sizemore was the only Indian with as much value to his team as Santana had to the Twins.
The Twins might be able to cobble together something to help offset the loss of Santana, but it's not going to be easy because Santana is such a stud. (Plus, if the ultimate goal is to win a championship, in the postseason it seems to be preferable to have a couple of really great pitchers rather than making sure you upgrade from replacement level to average at a couple of offensive spots.)
no real arguments, ubes. however: look at Santana's splits.
in 93 career wins, he's had an ERA of 1.63 (630+ innings)
in 44 career losses, an ERA of 5.87 (260+ innings)
in 113 no-decisions, an ERA of 3.99 (414+ innings)
compare that to, say, the Jackal:
2.74 ERA in 55 career wins (331+ innings)
7.44 ERA in 46 career loss (240+)
3.72 ERA in 156 career no-decisions (368 innings, obviously weighted toward his middle-relief experience with the Phillies)
Johan, when he is on (which is frequent, obviously) is awesome. When he's off, he's average or slightly below average. When he's on, the Twins prolly should win 3/4ths of the time, minimum. When he's off, winning is coin-flip territory.
obviously, you can't pick-and-choose replacement performances for him, always getting a league-average performance. But I just wanted to point out that Johan's career looks as though he hasn't been a modern Bert Blyleven with a ton of hard-luck losses. He's gotten hammered a LOT in his losses. (which is what we'd want anyway -- pack the badness in as few appearances as possible, Johan!)
add to that comment about Thome vs Hafner/martinez/Garko
of course, Martinez and Garko were home-grown. So the comparison is more about Hafner (whom they acquired in the winter of 2002) and what else they could afford as Thome was leaving. Damn, what a great deal that turned out to be.
Indians got Hafner and a bad, young starting pitcher (Aaron Myette, out of the majors since 2004) for Einar Diaz and a bad, less young starting pitcher (Ryan Drese). The Indians eventually turned Diaz into Chris Young, so they did all right out of the deal, I guess (ignoring their subsequent, horrible decision to trade him, Sledge AND Adrian Gonzalez for Eaton and Otsuka).
Hafner's deal got him $6.3m this year, escalating to 8.05, 11.5, 11.5, 13, 13 and 13. Looks like a bargain for Cleveland.
Hafner's deal got him $6.3m this year, escalating to 8.05, 11.5, 11.5, 13, 13 and 13. Looks like a bargain for Cleveland.
That's a decent deal, but Hafner has zero defensive value, is 31 next year, and has averaged ~140 games/year over the last four seasons. He's got old player skills, and old player skills tend not to age well. The next couple of years, that's a good deal. I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians will be looking to unload the last $26M of that contract, though. (Since essentially that was exactly the same position that the Phillies were in with Thome in 2005. Thome can still mash, but when you can't count on him being healthy and he's taking up a big chunk of payroll, is he more of a problem or a solution?)
good points, ubes. mebbe they can trade him to the McHales for cap relief and a couple lottery picks.
Bad when Face becomes Head Case.
Stuff = Punto must not get At Bats
It could mean anything. Or it could mean nothing. It could just be something he said because he thought it sounded good. Who knows? I'm not expecting him back, so I really don't care what he says any more.
'Stuff' is something you'd say to a girl you are breaking up with. Or Greenspan would say to obfuscate and circumlocute - "if you thought you understood what I was saying then you weren't listening close enough."
You are right on it, NBB. The amorphous "stuff" will be the deal breaker.
There must be fifty ways to leave a franchise.
You just slip out the back, Jacques.
You don't need to be coy, Torii.
Find a new heaven, M11.
Don't need to be gauche, Lohse.
(Credits to CH).
Abuse your kidney, Sidney.
Make a new plan, Johanummm. I didn't say that.
Drop off your key, Corey.
Do as you please, Ortiz. (2x)
Go to hell, Rondelle.
One of those Ortizes is not like the other.
Come up with another story, Torii.
Don't need to be coy, LaTroy.
Just stay out of view, Lew.
Drive off in an Alero, Romero.
Jump for the trapeze, Luis.
maybe he wants a no trade clause
maybe he wants a Roger Clemons type deal where he gets flights to home to see his family
maybe he really does not want to be a Twin (which he should just say)