CF Observation…
Posted by ubelmann on Wednesday, October 31st, 2007 at 7:52 pm
I was playing around with some Baseball-Reference.com stats today, and I noticed something. Check out the career park-adjusted lines for the following FA CF'ers:
AVG/OBP/SLG -- Dude
.257/.336/.488 -- Andruw Jones
.282/.340/.456 -- Aaron Rowand
.251/.341/.445 -- Mike Cameron
.268/.321/.465 -- Torii Hunter
They all have pretty similar offensive value. Good power, a decent OBP, and a middling batting average. Now, there are differences in defensive value amongst the four of them, but over the course of 150 games, the difference between the best and the worst in that group is probably about 10 runs.
Given the age differences, various health concerns, and somewhat differing recent performances, they aren't completely equivalent substitutes...but they're pretty close. It seems pretty likely to me that the differences in price in this group will turn out to be larger than the differences in expected performance.
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I would be happy to see any of those four dudes in CF for the Twins next season. Seems like we could get Rowand or Cameron for a decent price. It's hard to say what will happen with Jones. He got a lot of negative press this season.
Given the recent situation with Cameron, I think the Twins should really go after him.
I assume you're referring to this?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3088062
Yep. That's the story. He should come at a discount, given his situation.
I would imagine he would. It also means he'll miss ~1/6 of the season. We'd definitely want to get a multi-year deal out of him.
Let's be a little more realistic. How do Darrin Erstad's numbers compare?
He would be the best punter on the team.
But is he scrappier than Rowand?
I wasn't suggesting the Twins would necessarily sign any of these guys. I just thought it was interesting that four players that good at the same position who have a very similar skill set were all on the free agent market at the same time. Seems like you don't see that too often these days.
I'm not sure how his park-adjusted stats stack up the the guys above, but I recently read that Luke Scott might be pushed out of Houston's outfield if they sign a free agent CF. It'd be pretty sweet if Hunter signed with the Astros and the Twins were able to make a deal for Scott, assuming he plays passable defense (I honestly have no idea). He got off to a rough start this year, but his overall stats look pretty sharp.
yeah, he'd be a nice cheap offensive replacement for Torii... last year in 425 PAs, he went .255/.351/.504. If he could even get on base around a .330 clip and slug for about a .470 clip, he'd have an OPS of 800, which is within shouting range of Torii's .334/.505 last year.
His post-April stats were even more impressive: .267/.360/.534
For a lefty he has hit LHP pretty decently over his career - .259/.372/.431 - and his overall career OPS is 24 points higher away from the Juice Box. Kinda looks to me like he's similar to Shane Mack - gets off to a slow start but puts up very solid numbers after the first month of the season.
Is he any good with the glove? Can he play a decent CF?
Scott didn't fare that well in Tangotiger's fan scouting reports, in either LF or RF:
2006, LF and 2007, RF
Is there a problem with Hunter Pence in CF? It seems the Astros would be fools to invest in another megabucks outfielder and push out a cheap one like Scott, unless they were completely barren of CF ability.
I don't know why the Astros aren't content with Pence in center - maybe they want him to move into a lower-impact (physically-speaking) position?
Scott as a CF probably wouldn't be that great, but if he came at a reasonable price, then he'd probably be a good option in a corner OF spot. (I'm basically convinced that Kubel has been made into a DH by hitting better there at the end of the season--much the same way that Rondell was made a LF by hitting well there over a small sample size. Given Kubel's knees, and our inability to find a DH in other ways, that's probably not such an awful thing.)
Scott in LF and Kubel as DH would be a pretty big improvement across the board, particularly if there is another righty-masher like Stairs COF/CIF available this winter who can spell one of those guys against the toughest lefties. If the Twins somehow acquired a player like Scott to play left I'd be pretty satisfied with a banjo-hitting guy like Coco Crisp or similar in center.
What's the going rate for someone like Scott, anyway? Boof?
he'd have an OPS of 800, which is within shouting range of Torii's .334/.505 last year.
And above his career numbers.
I don't think their differences in salary will be entirely unwarranted -- despite comparable career numbers, Cameron is 2-4 years older than the rest of the pack, and his 2007 season certainly could be seen as the start of an age decline. That's huge, especially if the others net 5-year deals. And Rowand, although he should get a sizable contract anyway, has been much more up-and-down in his career than Torii or even Jones -- Rowand's 2005-2006 numbers foreshadow a significant risk of downside to a big contract, I would think.
I imagine Jones, with his hefty defensive rep and Boras representation, could net the biggest deal, although considering 2006-2007 trends (Elias-style), Torii might be the best bet.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Cameron at half the cost (or less) of Torii Hunter. Yes, Cameron is older, but having a shorter-term commitment is a huge bonus for whoever is signing the contracts. Is Torii Hunter really worth twice as much as Mike Cameron?
Consider, for instance, Nate Silver's marginal value above replacement player (in millions of dollars) for Hunter and Cameron in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011, calculated before the season started:
Year -- Hunter, Cameron
2008 -- $10.6M, $8.9M
2009 -- $9.4M, $6.5M
2010 -- $8.6M, $4.9M
2011 -- $5.3M, $3.4M
Hunter's worth more than Cameron going forward, but whoever signs Torii Hunter is essentially going to sign a contract for Mike Cameron's last three years and Mike Cameron's next three years, but all bundled together at a high price with a lot of risk in those last three years.
I think Cameron could be a better value too, but on a 5-year deal, Hunter is only going to play for you through his age-36 season. Cameron is starting his age-35 season next year. You may get the better "value" and less "risk" with him but you may also get a significantly worse player, for at least the next 2-3 seasons, and the money saved doesn't really matter unless it's invested wisely elsewhere (a big "if" for some organizations!).
Considering that the Twins have the second highest number of A level players in the AL, there shouldn't be too much problem finding a place to spend the residual money wisely.
I think Cameron could be a better value too, but on a 5-year deal, Hunter is only going to play for you through his age-36 season. Cameron is starting his age-35 season next year.
You're assuming that Torii Hunter gets a 5-year deal and not a 6-year deal. Alfonso Soriano just signed an 8-year deal last off-season, and Ichiro signed a 5-year deal (he's 34 next season) without actually hitting the free agent market. If Torii signs a 6-year deal, then half of his contract will be his age 35, 36, and 37 seasons, but he'll have had three more years to do more damage to his legs. At that point, you're forecasting so far out, that you have very little idea what Hunter really will be. That's an enormous risk to take if you have a small payroll--ask the Reds how their long-term deal with Ken Griffey (a far, far better player than Hunter has ever been) worked out.
You may get the better "value" and less "risk" with him but you may also get a significantly worse player, for at least the next 2-3 seasons, and the money saved doesn't really matter unless it's invested wisely elsewhere (a big "if" for some organizations!).
If you are a major league GM, and you sign Mike Cameron but then waste the rest of your money, the problem is that you wasted the rest of your money, not that you signed Mike Cameron. If you don't trust yourself to spend that money, or you simply can't spend that money well, then that just makes you a bad GM, and I don't really care about giving advice to bad GMs.
I don't know if a 5-year deal is more likely, but I was just trying to be up-front about possible figures. Your previous post was based on a six-year deal without explicitly saying so, and I don't know that he's guaranteed six years either, given that there are 3 other viable CF options out there, and Torii is the 2nd-oldest. Plus, indications are that the 5th year is the sticking point as far as the Twins are concerned (once they actually talk to each other, I suppose!).
As for resources, it's not just a "good GM/bad GM" thing -- I was referring specifically to the Twins' tight pockets. I'm not convinced they will re-invest those saved dollars in the ballclub. Although generally, more flexible teams should be able to benefit, and at the very least, the Twins *should* put the saved money towards locking up existing players, as SBG alluded to, who are probably higher priorities than Hunter anyway.
Your previous post was based on a six-year deal without explicitly saying so, and I don't know that he's guaranteed six years either, given that there are 3 other viable CF options out there, and Torii is the 2nd-oldest.
I can't predict the future, but let's just say that if the over/under for years on Hunter's contract is 5.5, I'm taking the over. Either way, I think you're overestimating the difference in performance between Cameron and Hunter the next three years and underestimating the added risk that even a five-year contract to a 32-36-year old player entails to a team on a ~$70-$90M budget.
I'm not convinced they will re-invest those saved dollars in the ballclub.
The Twins have increased their opening day payroll each of the last three years. When additional revenue has presented itself--increased revenue sharing, increased ticket prices, increased media revenue--the Twins have increased payroll. Not spending the money that's available to them is the least of my concerns.
Remember: no matter how long you sign Torii for, you only get one contract year performance out of him for that contract...
...in his walk year.
Shooter made his almost daily stupid comment this week wondering if the Twins would retire Hunter's #48. How many ex-Twins would you retire their numbers before you got to double I?
I'm going to campaign for Chuck Knoblauch's 11 before Hunter's 48. Let's just put it that way.
Not an outlandish statement, about the only thing Hunter has on Knoblauch is a little bit more of longevity (2 years, but only about 300 more plate appearances) and a lot more power. Chuck's got a WAY better VORP, OPS+, a World Series Ring, and a couple Silver Sluggers. I've got the 2 of them pretty close on my list of top Twins in the teens. Do you think Knoblauch will ever get his due and be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame? He seems to have just as good a resume (if not better) than Gaetti, Battey and Versailles who are in it, he just had an ugly exit and an even uglier reunion with the left field fans in 2001.
I don't know if he'll make it, but he ought to. He was an excellent player -- excellent defensively, high OBP, great baserunner... plus he had the best VORP season in Twins history. But, of course, the exit was ugly, and his post Twins days were a disaster. So, I'm thinking it'll be a while before #11 is inducted.
He may end up getting in, the next couple years. I assume Radke is inducted very soon, maybe even this next year. After him, its kind of reaching. I assume Hunter won't be inducted until after he retires from MLB and the same for Johan (hopefully this is after a 20 year career as a Twin). Jim Perry deserves to be on the list, but besides him Knoblauch seems to be the most qualified. More so than the next bunch of Aguilera, Smalley, Goltz, Pascual, etc
Geoff Young had some interesting remarks about Cameron's situation on his Ducksnorts blog today. I agree with him, Cameron's suspension is an excellent bargaining chip for any GM looking for a short-term, low-commitment decent CF. Hopefully that includes Bill Smith.