In Search Of Craig Monroe, Int’l League Edition

Quoth the Gleeman:

Once upon a time, Craig Monroe was exactly the type of player that the Twins should be targeting. A minor-league veteran who didn't get his first extended chance in the majors until the age of 26, Monroe was claimed off waivers by the Tigers in 2002 and showed that his strong track record was no fluke by providing them with productive, low-cost seasons from 2003-2006. He's an example of the overlooked talent that's often available if you trust a player's minor-league performance.

Unfortunately, rather than go after a low-cost, mid-20s minor leaguer of their own who fits the Monroe mold, the Twins traded for the original version yesterday afternoon, sending a conditional player to be named later to the Cubs for his rights. Five years ago Monroe was in his prime and cost little, making him a good value. Now he's on the wrong side of 30 with production that has declined sharply over the past two seasons and is set to make around $5 million in 2008 via arbitration.

So I'd like to find these Craig Monroe clones. I went looking at Baseball-Reference.com which now has a section for minor league statistics. As a 24-year old in AAA, Monroe hit .280/.353/.512. As a 25-year old in AAA, he hit .321/.382/.511. Since the Twins are conceivably looking for a major league-ready player, I went straight to the AAA statistics.

Baseball-Reference has the cutoff for rate statistics at 150 PA, which seems like a reasonable cutoff to me. I started by looking at SLG. Only six players who qualified had a SLG better than .511, so I relaxed the constraint arbitrarily down to .470. There were 27 players last season in AAA who slugged .470 or better. Requiring an OBP of .340 or better cuts the list down to 22 players. Jason Cooper and Mike Hessman hit .260 and .254 respectively, which seems far enough below Monroe's .280 and .321, and everyone else's .280 or better that I'm striking them off the list. This puts us at 20 players.

Now, we need an outfielder. I'm feeling kind of generous, so I'll go ahead and say that all of the 1B/3B and SS/2B on the list can play mediocre corner outfield defense, though undoubtedly some of the 1B/3B would be too slow and some of the SS/2B would have a learning curve for switching to the outfield. Aaron's looking for someone in their mid-20s, so now I'll eliminate anyone 28 and over, figuring they'll be at least 29 going into next year. That puts the list down to 14 players.

Jay Bruce is still on the list, and he's 20 years old and a top prospect. Jed Lowrie was a 23-year old SS in the Red Sox organization last year, and I don't see the Red Sox giving him up for free. Josh Fields looks to have an everyday spot in the White Sox lineup next year. That gets us down to 11 players. Let's look at the seven outfielders first.

Duncan did pretty decently with the Yankees in his brief stint with them last year and probably wouldn't be all that cheap. (The Yankees also seem to be grasping the value of cheap depth like Duncan these days, which is scary.) Raburn is property of Detroit, and a Tigers-Twins deal isn't happening.

You might recognize Pridie's name, as he was drafted by the Twins in the 2006 Rule 5 draft, but they didn't find room for him on the 25-man roster. He had a really dismal 2006, hitting .230/.281/.304 in AA. His career minor league line is .279/.326/.432. It's promising that he hit for power this year, but I tend to think he'd be a stretch in a corner OF spot, at least for 2008.

Justin Ruggiano looks like a pretty good fit. 6'2", 205 lbs, 25 years old, has a career .307/.396/.508 line and is stuck behind B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, and Elijah Dukes (if Dukes ever decides to stop trying to imprison himself.)

Ben Francisco is property of Cleveland, and they are both in the division and recognize the value of cheap depth. Brandon Moss is a pretty good match for Craig Monroe, but I would guess that the Red Sox are interested in having him around as a Drew/Ramirez backup plan, especially if they decide to move Coco and install Ellsbury in CF. Adam Lind was a 3rd-round pick of the Blue Jays in 2004. Despite a rather miserable 290 AB this year, I'd guess the Jays would rather not sell low on Lind considering his career .316/.377/.505 line and his age.

Looking at the non-outfielders, I'm similarly discouraged. Joey Votto's a top prospect and hit .321/.360/.548 in his CoC with the Reds last year. Jack Hannahan is a second baseman in the Tigers organization. Barbaro Canizares mashed this year, but didn't play a whole lot and only played 1B/DH. Ryan Mulhern could maybe be in the Monroe mold as a guy who is blocked, but has only played 23 games in the OF (all last year), is in the Indians' organization, and spent time at DH this year, which is a pretty bad sign as far as his defensive abilities go.

And that's it. Out of everyone, Ruggiano looks like he has the most potential as a Twins target, but otherwise I seemed to turn up a lot of legit prospects, a lot of guys within the division, and a lot of guys who are still useful to the club that controls their rights. Perhaps the PCL will be more promising.