Performances in the International League at the age of 20
Posted by ubelmann on Wednesday, November 28th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
I don't especially like the sounds of this, but I'm willing to keep an open mind until I look into things with more detail. Nothing's offical yet, but this seems like a credible rumor to me.
The biggest thing that Delmon Young has going for him, as far as I can tell, is that he's been really young while putting up good numbers in the minors. Last year Young had a 91 OPS+ as a corner outfielder, which was not an especially valuable performance. Any chances of Young being a star depend on him vastly improving upon that performance and/or being able to capably play CF. (And I am pretty skeptical of the latter position.)
In 2006, the year after winning Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year award, Delmon hit .316/.341/.474 over 342 AB in AAA at the age of 20. How does that compare to other performances by 20-year olds in the history of the International League?
.305/.358/.567, 187 AB -- Jay Bruce, 2007 (BA player of the year)
.263/.295/.337, 190 AB -- Asdrubal Cabrera, 2006
.316/.341/.474, 342 AB -- Delmon Young, 2006
.303/.392/.490, 545 AB -- B.J. Upton, 2005
.285/.303/.447, 228 AB -- Delmon Young, 2005 (19 years old)
.248/.309/.366, 101 AB -- Melky Cabrera, 2005
.311/.405/.519, 264 AB -- B.J. Upton, 2004 (19 years old)
.250/.320/.360, 136 AB -- Dioner Navarro, 2004 (was with NYY at the time)
.269/.331/.356, 160 AB -- Jose Reyes, 2003
.245/.313/.370, 343 AB -- Wilson Betemit, 2002
.297/.335/.456, 353 AB -- Carl Crawford, 2002
.268/.313/.369, 436 AB -- Omar Infante, 2002
.292/.292/.469, 96 AB -- Rocco Baldelli, 2002
.218/.253/.278, 435 AB -- Cesar Izturis, 2000
.310/.360/.481, 129 AB -- Vernon Wells, 1999
.256/.344/.404, 344 AB -- D'Angelo Jimenez, 1998
.280/.326/.386, 132 AB -- Edgar Renteria, 1996
.349/.438/.492, 126 AB -- Cap'n Dreamboat, 1994
.240/.326/.336, 125 AB -- Cliff Floyd, 1993
That's the entire list of 20-year olds from the International League in the last 15 years. To say that this is a small sample size is a massive understatement. Undaunted, let's see if I feel confident saying much of anything after looking at this:
- B.J. Upton!
- My big concern is Upton's OBP, especially if he is a career corner OF. The only guys on that list with especially higher OBP's than Young's .341 are B.J. Upton and Derek Jeter.
- Is there something in the water in Durham? There seem to be a lot of Bulls on that list. Checking out the park factors here, Durham is definitely a hitter's park (11% above league average run factor is pretty huge), but it's pretty neutral for singles and doubles. The increased run-scoring environment seems to mainly be due to an inflated HR rate.
- The closest comp to Young on that list seems to be Carl Crawford. Crawford has been a good player the last few years, no doubt, but his performance-to-date hasn't been all that spectacular. He's a career .296/.331/.439 hitter, good for a 103 OPS+. Now, he has steadily increased his OBP from .309 in 2003 (as a 21-year old) to .355 last year (as a 25-year old.) Over the last four years, his OPS+ has been 105, 111, 113, and 117. Crawford has significant value as a defender, but even if you figure he's +10 to 15 runs/year with his glove, he's been about a 3-4 wins/year player. That's good, but not exceptional. He's made some All-Star teams, but I think that overstates his value. Crawford could very well have an excellent peak over the next four years, but he's also going to start getting expensive now.
- B.J. Upton!!
- Vernon Wells is also pretty comparable to Young on that list, and he's hit .281/.331/.478 so far in his career, good for a 108 OPS+. A lot of his value stems from playing a very good CF.
On a non-minor league numbers note:
- Relieved that Torii and Jacque's hackmatic days are in the past? Young is even more aggressive than those guys were. In '06, Delmon swung at the first pitch 64% of the time, and 52% of the time in '07. By comparison, Vlad--who is about as aggressive a hitter as I can think of--has a career first pitch swinging rate of 47%, and his highest ever was 54% in 2004. Torii swung at the first pitch 35% of the time, and his highest rate ever was 40% in 2006. Jacque's career first pitch swinging rate is 40%, and his highest ever was 47% in 2003. (He seems to have a different approach these days, swinging at the first pitch just 25% of the time in 2007.) As Vlad shows, you can still be an effective hitter with this kind of approach, but you'd better be some kind of freak to make it work. It's kind of curious, given his strikeout rate, that the Twins have made him such a target.
- ZiPS has Delmon Young forecasted to hit .292/.323/.424 next year, with average CF at .267/.332/.416, average RF at .272/.344/.448 and average LF at .273/.347/.447. If this potential trade does benefit the Twins, I don't see it as a major benefit for 2008.
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What happened to the rumor that had Boof headed to Tampa? Seems odd to piece together a Tampa deal without Boof in the mix...
Moss isn't too high on this possible deal.
I don't really like this one either. I'm okay with trading Garza, but would it really be the end of the world for the Twins to get a guy with a decent OBP?
All indications are that this deal is going to happen. When a rumored trade is a featured news item on Twinsbaseball.com, I think it has a high level of credibility. I'm guessing Smith wants this deal done before the Winter Meetings, when he'll be up to his neck in negotiations for Santana.
Agreed. I hadn't seen that it was also up on the official site. And while I often disagree with his analysis, LEN3 doesn't usually report something like this as "close" unless it's actually pretty darned close.
Well, and now Keith Law says it's true. So it must be true. Uh huh.
Nice work, ubes.
Delmon's top 3 similar batters through age 21 on baseball-reference are Tris Speaker, Rocco Baldelli and Roberto Clemente.
Someone commenting at AG.com suggested that perhaps the Twins are thinking outside the box with this one -- perhaps they are thinking they will move Cuddy back to the IF.
There's no way Cuddyer goes back to the IF. He's the Twins' RF. Young will play LF, Kubel will DH.
So the deal has been finalized, and Rincon was replaced in the trade by our closer-of-the-future Eduardo Morlan.
I was okay with letting Garza and Bartlett go in order to get Young, especially if it meant getting rid of Rincon.
But I am not okay with letting Garza and Bartlett and our fourth best prospect go. I think Young will be great, but Harris and Pridie are nobodies. Color me disappointed.
yah. Delmon Young better turn into a superstar in a hurry. 'cuz that deal sucks. Smith got fleeced.
I would have swallowed hard and hoped for the best if it was Rincon instead of Morlan. But this is just not that good a deal.
the infield now is a disaster.
the infield now is a disaster.
And we still have no center fielder. Smith said on TV tonight that Young would be in a corner outfield spot, not center. This week alone I've heard Melky, Coco, and The Legend of Aaron Rowand mentioned as potential CF targets, the first two via trade for Santana. So it's starting to look like Smith is really going to shuffle the deck good and put his mark on this team. Can't blame him for wanting to do that, but he better not screw it up. I think we gave up a bit too much in this deal, but I'm so desperate for an offensive upgrade after last year that I'm willing to give it a chance. Young is what this deal is all about, and Harris and Pridie are spare parts that can be thrown into other deals. Mr. Smith's big test is coming up next week when we see just what he can broker in Nashville.
Morlan's performance in A-ball was certainly good this year, but as a 21-year old relief pitcher in a pitcher-friendly A-ball league, he should have dominated. Losing Morlan sucks, because I'd rather have him than Rincon right now, but I'm not ready yet to go projecting Morlan as a stud closer based on what he's done so far.
I'm not ready yet to go projecting Morlan as a stud closer based on what he's done so far.
No disagreement here. But I still view the deal with Morlan as much worse than the deal with Rincon. Unless Rincon was hurt last year, he sure looks like he's become an expensive groundskeeper. And even if he was hurt, he's still an expensive middle reliever at this point, with Neshek and Guerrier clearly having moved ahead of him as set-up men. He needs to be moved.
I agree that the trade is worse with Morlan instead of Rincon, especially since the main portion of the swap (Young-Garza) sets us back next year while potentially making us better down the road.
I find myself somewhat disappointed that we're not going all in this year. In a way, it makes sense because the big money teams do have prospects to deal, but I really thought the Twins could, at minimal cost, upgrade the gigantic holes in the lineup to replacement level or slightly above, and then try to ride Santana/Liriano/Nathan/Neshek/Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer to victory. I don't know.
At the very least, Rincon instead of Morlan would have cleared at least a little salary.
I find myself somewhat disappointed that we're not going all in this year.
Or really at any point in the 2002-07 window when the club had the core pieces to a championship contender.
*cues up David Bowie's "Changes."
LENIII opines "Young, who probably will play left field, should help make up for the loss of free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter."
Huh? You mean he's going to supplant the Twins BEST HITTING OUTFIELDER and this is supposed to "make up" for losing Hunter?
273/335/450 Kubel 2007
288/316/408 Young 2007
303/379/511 Kubel second half
300/325/403 Young second half
at least Young is a right-handed hitter. and he's young. there's two positives. But if he costs Kubel at bats, this will be a short-term dud and perhaps even disaster.
will Pridie replace Tyny on the roster?
The Twins have no DH if not Kubel. Young should not cost Kubel PA--Kubel should be DH'ing every day and Young should be LF'ing every day. Kubel's knees are bad, and he's 'meh' defensively. That's the least of my worries here.
will Pridie replace Tyny on the roster?
I doubt it. The Twins can't get enough Tyner.
Yeah, I think this definitely makes Kubel the DH. So where does that leave Craig Monroe?
In free agent land. What was your favorite Craig-Monroe-as-a-Twin moment?