Cup of Coffee: November 30, 2007
Posted by SBG on Friday, November 30th, 2007 at 5:17 am
Thank God the cold November rains are almost over.
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Where I live, the cold November rains are already over. It snowed yesterday. Not much, but I suspect it's only priming the pump.
Same here in Madison. It's our second or third snow already, so things are definitely underway.
cold November rains? We wish. NorCal is hoping for a very snowy/rainy wet season.
I heard this morning that we are in for 5 to 9 inches of snow tomorrow.
Better you than me. I think we're supposed to get some snow tomorrow, too, but I don't think it's that much.
For the sake of one prominent member of the Nation who is having an important day tomorrow, I sure hope the snow misses us.
So, you are aware that tomorrow is Butch's 65th birthday? Or are you talking about someone else? The forecast said 100% chance of snow, but we all know these things can change.
100% chance? With a weather prediction? I think that's grounds for execution in Sudan!
only if you name a storm "Muhammad".
Nope, not Butch and, nope, not a birthday.
They can change all right. Now we're in a winter storm watch for tomorrow.
Let's see...you already got married, Sheenie didn't look to be pregnant, and swearing-in day should have been in Oct or Nov.
What gives?? Moss' curiosity is piqued.
I see that Wordpress (or whatever it is you are using) is screwing with you again, SBG. I miss the list o' citizens on line on the front page.
Yeah, that's an issue with the plugin. I updated it and poof! it was gone. I'll fix that some day soon, I hope.
What do we think of this latest rumored deal, with the BoSox?
I know nothing about Lowrie. I'd much rather have Hughes than Lester, but am persuadable by ubelmentation, should it be offered. Bowden?
From soxprospects.com:
Sounds like the Twins could be looking at Lowrie as a possible replacement for Bartlett, at least in 2009. They could get by with Punto/Casilla/Harris at SS and 2B this year. Lowrie is 23, will turn 24 in April. He was a first round draft pick out of Stanford.
For what it's worth, Peter Gammons said if Lowrie was traded to the Twins, he would start right away. Of course, that could be less a comment about Lowrie than a comment about the Twins' shortstop options.
Lowrie had the 15th-best OPS in the International League last year, and he was just 23. His 2006 wasn't very good, but overall he's hit .291/.386/.448 in the minors. He's legit.
Oh, and to answer the original question, I don't like this deal at all the way it sits now. If we can't get Ellsbury from Boston, I'd tell them to take a flying leap through a rolling donut. Same with NYY and Chamberlain and/or Cano. If Smith can get Boston to swap out Crisp and Ellsbury in this deal, then I say pull the trigger because this deal then addresses our needs for a SS and CF for several years to come with high caliber talent. I know he's only 28, but I just feel that Crisp's best years are behind him already. Also, here's what soxprospects.com has to say about Ellsbury:
If not Ellsbury than Bucholz. I'd take Hughes off the Yankee's hands too.
Yeah, this deal doesn't do much for me. We are talking about the best pitcher in baseball, in his prime, the kind of guy that puts you over the top. Don't hand me the well, we have to pay him a lot of money. You also don't have to fight for him in free agency.
I'd rather see Santana pitch for the Twins in 2008 and leave than take that deal.
Yep. There is no way the Twins can deal the best pitcher in the game to the Red Sox and not get at least 1 of their top 2 prospects. If Crisp stays in the deal, Buchholz has to be added.
I don't even see Crisp as much of an asset with his current contract. He's more of a throw in on a deal.
Crisp is a good defender in CF. PMR had him as the best in the majors last year (+15 runs), UZR had him 3rd best (+13 runs), and RZR has him essentially tied as the 2nd-best CF. In all measures he scored better than Torii. In a typical year, Hunter's worth roughly 25-30 runs above replacement with his bat, and for a few years now, really, almost all defensive metrics have him around average as a fielder. Maybe they're all wrong, but he's definitely regressed from what he once was, and made a decent number of misplays last year. Going into his age 28 season, I'd say Crisp is worth roughly 10 runs above replacement with his bat, and if he's 10-15 runs above average with his glove, that makes him worth around 20-25 runs above replacement overall. That's not an all-star, but he'd be solid contributor.
Crisp's contract isn't $0M/year, but it's still pretty reasonable. I'd be okay with acquiring Crisp if it meant that we could get Clay Buchholz and Jed Lowrie out of the deal. I think that deal might make sense for Boston (Santana > Buchholz, Lugo/Pedroia are blocking Lowrie, and they might prefer Ellsbury to Crisp in CF anyway). Lester's good, but I agree with the sentiment that the Twins need either Ellsbury or Buchholz in the deal.
(Also, regarding Ellsbury, he would seem to project as kind of a Luis Castillo in CF, which is pretty valuable, but I guess I'm not as high on him as other people are.)
I agree that Crisp is a decent defender, but don't forget that the theme of the offseason is to improve the offense while keeping salary to 52% of revenue. In addition, Crisp we would only control for 2 years, or 3 with the $8 million option for 2010 (when he would be 30 years old). We have no idea if Pridie could pan out as the CF of the future (if you believe that's what he could be, which I don't as yet). But Ellsbury would be under our control for what, 5 or 6 years? And Ellsbury has tons of upside while Crisp has pretty much hit his ceiling. Can you imagine an outfield of Young, Ellsbury, and Cuddyer? Cannons at the corners with great speed and range up the middle, and a great offensive trio. Me likey.
I agree that Crisp is a decent defender, but don't forget that the theme of the offseason is to improve the offense while keeping salary to 52% of revenue.
I'm not so bent on improving the offense that I'm unwilling to consider adding a pitcher and dealing a different pitcher down the line. I obviously prefer Ellsbury to Crisp, but f the Red Sox are completely unwilling to part with Ellsbury (and I think they're going to be extremely hesitant to deal him), I'm not opposed to Crisp if it means we get Buchholz and Lowrie.
We have no idea if Pridie could pan out as the CF of the future (if you believe that's what he could be, which I don't as yet).
You don't need to worry about that. Pridie's a 4th OF, and no one's future CF. He might have a Lew Ford 2004 year in him, but he'll have at most one of those.
He's more of a throw in on a deal.
It seems obvious that the Sox should be desperate to unload Crisp this winter to somebody, anyway, to make room for Ellsbury since Manny and Ortiz will keep him out of LF/DH and Drew isn't going anywhere because of his contract.
I'd like to think that Ellsbury would be available to trade for someone like Santana, but Simmons thinks the Sox can't deal him now, or else the pink hats would riot after the females of New England got an eyeful of him this Fall. Considering the numbers he put up down the stretch and in the postseason, there must be more than a few Jacoby Man-Crushes in The Nation these days, as well. I don't know how much weight the Red Sox would give to that; but, as we've seen recently in Torii Hunter's case, PR considerations can play a significant part in a club's decision not to trade a popular player who should have been prime trade bait.
Even if the pink hats would riot over the departure of Ellsbury, it's not like Santana looks like Juan Berenguer. I don't think I've met a lady yet who thinks Johan is anything less than quite handsome.
I'm not excited about Coco. He seems a bit like the Jeter of CF. Always misreading things and then sprinting and making a fantastic diving catch (or near-catch) that should have been easier. I'd rather wait for the draft picks and put Delmon in CF.
Plus, if Ellsbury comes to the Twins, both active Native Americans would have been on the roster at one time. (Other being Lohse.)
AMR, you're forgetting Joba.
Ack! I didn't know.
So the number of American Indians active in the Majors tripled from July to September?
Can we trade for him too?
Don't look now, but there's been a Batgirl sighting over at MN GameDay.
Okay, you can look now.
HAHA
Thats fantastic
Call me crazy, but I think the Nittney Lions are getting bang for their buck than your Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Paterno has been Penn State football for pretty much my whole life. But man, that picture makes him look like he lives under a bridge and eats billy goats for lunch.
Geez, and isn't he also a hug donor to the school too? (Didn't they name the Library after him?)
Mike Bauman has a pretty good article on Santana at MLB.com today. It makes me even more adamant that Boston's proposed deal is a non-starter the way it's currently constructed.
From Joe C's blog:
So go with Ellsbury, Lowrie (he needs some seasoning but should be worth his salt), and throw in a couple of minor leaguers that include one solid pitching prospect, and this deal become much more palatable. I still think we could get Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Lester if Trader Bill sticks to his guns.
With no end in sight to the screen writers strike, here's a little something that's way better than reruns and reality shows.
Bugs Bunny - Baseball Bugs - Click here for the funniest movie of the week
That's good stuff. I remember as a kid thinking that the screaming liner line was the funniest thing I'd ever heard.
My favorite part is the one-pitch, 3K inning.
I was never sure how the rosters would have worked though. Seems to be more than 25 men on the Gorillas.
I wonder if there's a clip of the WKRP game with the hot drive caught by the 3rd baseman (didn't even move) with the beer in his other hand...
I sure hope you've all read Bugs Bunny, Greatest Banned Player Ever. If not, do it ASAP!
That is a little slice of geek heaven.
One of the biggest badasses, ever, Evel Knievel, is dead.
is this the year Bert makes the HoF? Not a WOW candidate this year, except for Bert
here is the list
Brady Anderson
Harold Baines
Rod Beck
Bert Blyleven
Dave Concepcion
Andre Dawson
Shawon Dunston
Chuck Finley
Travis Fryman
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
David Justice
Chuck Knoblauch
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Robb Nen
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Jose Rijo
Lee Smith
Todd Stottlemyre
Alan Trammell
bolded names would be the ones I would vote for. I have noreal numbers to back me up on those selections, just opinions.
Gossage and Smith represent the lack of closers in the Hall.
Bert's exclusion is a shame. Yeah he gave up a Bertin' lot of HR's, but his ERA is good and he struck out a whole mess of batters and logged a bunch of inning for bad team. and he also has 2 WS rings.
Tommy John goes intot he contributers wing because of the surgery named after him. He was also a darned good pitcher
I think Raines needs to go in and I'm not voting for Lee Smith. And Tommy needs to wait until Bert is in.
Plus, I flip Chuck Knoblauch a vote as a hat tip for his years in Minnesota.
Ditto on Knoblauch.
Ah crap, I'm voting for McGwire, too.
I'd vote for Blyleven, Trammell, Raines, and Gossage--roughly in that order.
Trammell was really, really good. From '83 to '88, his EQA was .309, .309, .260, .293, .333, and .310. For comparison, Jeter from '99 to '04 had EQAs of .335, .311, .304, .292, .300, .290. I'm not sure about Trammell's glove, but he only needed to be adequate with that kind of offensive performance as a shortstop.
Tommy John should get a nice display about how he helped pave the way for repairing elbow ligaments, but I don't see enough exceptional seasons in his record to warrant inclusion in the Hall. It's a close call, though. Andre Dawson is also a pretty close call, but doesn't quite make it for me.
I'd get behind that ballot. McGwire also belongs, as long as they'll also induct any other known or suspected PED users. This could be a year when Dawson and/or Rice get a surge of support, absent any first-ballot HOF names this time.
McGwire's interesting. I thought his career was shorter than it actually was, so I'd kind of dismissed him. Setting aside the PED issue for the moment, I think you can make the case that he's in a gray area.
If we look at Baseball-Reference's HOF register, there are 27 first basemen inducted into the Hall. Their average OPS+ is 140, and McGwire's is 162, so even adjust for park, era, and position, his rate stats are good to go. He also had a handful of great seasons, so peak value isn't a problem.
On the other hand, he only played in 1,874 games during his career. The average HOF 1B played in ~2,200 games, and if we limit it to the 10 first basemen whose careers started after 1950 (and thus had longer seasons), they averaged ~2,660 games in their career. McGwire falls short of both marks, and short of the latter mark by a lot. Especially towards the end of his career, he had limited defensive value, even as a first baseman, so that has to count a bit against him, too.
So I would say this about McGwire--he had a good enough peak and good enough rate stats to get in. He's not a no-brainer candidate due to his problems staying in the lineup (which ironically could have been caused by the PEDs that presumably helped boost his rate stats.) His 109 career WARP3 also puts him around average, maybe slightly above.
It'll be interesting to see how the PED issue is handled by the voters. I think it's perhaps reasonable to consider PEDs the way you might consider post-season success--as a way to break ties. For instance, Puckett was definitely borderline, but had the post-season success, general likeability, career-ending injury, etc., tip the scales in his favor. In the same way, I could see someone arguing that McGwire's case is borderline enough that the PEDs keep him out. For someone like Bonds, though, his case is so overwhelming that I don't think you can scrounge up enough mitigating factors to legitimately keep him out unless you're keeping all known/highly suspected users out.
For someone like Bonds, though, his case is so overwhelming that I don't think you can scrounge up enough mitigating factors to legitimately keep him out unless you're keeping all known/highly suspected users out.
This local HOF voter says no on Bonds.
The "Bonds isn't a nice guy" thing is annoying. If nice guys weren't allowed in the Hall, then we'd better get rid of Ty Cobb and John McGraw, not to mention all of the racists who would have refused to play if Bonds was on the other side.
I tend to think that taking PEDs is more like what Gaylord Perry did to further his career than it is like what Joe Jackson or Pete Rose did. (Especially Rose, who gambled long, long after gambling had become strictly taboo.) Where you draw the line is strictly an opinion, though, and I can't offer any data that say what is right and what is wrong. If someone is consistent about always voting against PED users, I guess I can respect that stance, though I may disagree with it.
I think it's pretty clear how I feel. The vendetta against Bonds is ridiculous in my view. He's on the extremely short list of all-time greats. So what if he is prickly? I don't want a goddamned hug, I want to watch baseball.
We've seen enough in this town of a glad hander who's media savvy. Who would you rather watch: Bonds or Hunter? I'll take Bonds every single day of the week. How about Hunter or Randy Moss? Me, I'm tuning in to watch Moss. Not that Hunter wasn't a good ballplayer here... he was. But, he wasn't GREAT. I like to watch greatness.
Trammell's defense was very good. Maybe not Ozzie Smith good, but not far behind. I always liked watching him play and thought he got a raw deal from Detroit as a manager. My Lord, the teams they gave him to work with were just horrible. I really think that as a manager he laid the groundwork for what would eventually become a playoff contender under Leyland. And as a player he was top drawer all the way. Hall of Fame good? I think so, but my opinion doesn't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy, mixed up world of HOF voting.
Yeah, I didn't see Trammel's name. I'm voting for him. My Knobby vote isn't about him deserving it. That's just a sentimental vote because he was so damned good in a Twins uniform.
Keeping up with the ex-Twins: Detroit signs Kenny Rogers to a one-year contract.
For what it's worth: The Twins signed pitchers Brian Bass, R.A. Dickey, and Mariano Gomez to minor-league contracts.
I made a noet about Dickey yesterday. Did you know he is a knuckballer know?
Not only did I not know he's a knuckleballer now, I really don't know what he threw before.
he had this 'vulcan' pitch, from what I remember. it was like a super knucklecurveball.
Interesting to read the article on rays.mlb.com about the transaction. I.e. How Garza and Bart feel:
And
Also, Torii, Bart, Garza, Del, Pridie, and Harris have had their mlb.com mugshot photoshopped. No time for me to put them up. I wonder if the Yanks and BoSox have a Santana Photoshop ready to go. I'll for sure grab a Santana-Yankees photoshop if there is one, before a new photo is taken with a bare chin.
I forgot to mention that I don't know how Garza was not guaranteed a rotation spot.
Yeah, that's a head scratcher.
Terrmel Sledge has signed a two-year contract with the Nippon Ham Fighters. That really doesn't mean much, but how many times does one get the chance to use "Terrmel Sledge" and "Nippon Ham Fighters" in the same sentence?
when thier next season is in play, someone should keep tabs on that team. You know how big cities have 'sister cities', just apply the same to foriegn baseball teams
the new Royals manager I believe was teh bench boss of the Fighters last year