The WGOM

T-Wolves at the 1/4 Pole

December 19th, 2007 by SBG

GreekHouse and I had a little conversation over the past few days regarding the Timberwolves at about the quarter point of the season.

SBG: Well, we are just a little bit through the quarter mark of the season, and the Wolves are 3-18 (now 3-20). I guess I'm a little surprised at that record. I thought they'd be better than that, but here we are -- on pace for 12 wins. No, they won't lose 70 games, and the point of this season isn't really wins, but still, it's kind of tough to see them lose pretty much every night. GH, what are your early impressions of this season?

GH: When it comes to a team that is expected to win as infrequently as the Wolves, variance can play a large part in coloring your perception of the team. After 21 games, most people would have expected us to be 5-16 or 6-15. The Wolves lost on a buzzer beater in Atlanta and have had a number of other close calls. If the Wolves have a couple of things go just a little differently, all of a sudden we're right where you'd expect us to be. For the most part, the Wolves have been competitive in their games, although there have been a handful of games where they've looked like they would have lost to a D-League team.

If I were to give the team a grade so far, I'd have to say Incomplete. The Wolves have been without Foye so far, and I expect him to be a big part of our future. I think the Wolves will look a lot different with him in the lineup. Recently, I've been pleased that a lot of our young guys seem to have grown a lot--even since the season began.

SBG: When a team trades a franchise player like KG, it very rarely "wins" that type of trade in the NBA. That's simply because one player like KG is much more valuable than five pretty good players. I recently read Top Jimmy and he said the trade was good because of BigAlJefferson and the picks. "The Picks" are the pick that the Wolves lost in the previous Celtic trade (which wouldn't have been going to the C's until at least 2010) and the other was not the Celtics pick in 2008. So, no real help is coming from those picks -- one is off in the distance so far and the other is probably a late (very late) first rounder. Still though, BigAlJefferson seems to be enough to say that this trade isn't a complete embarrassment. Sure, he's not KG or even KG at 22, but he's a real player in this league. He's already, in my estimation, the greatest post player in team history. What are your thoughts about BAJ and the KG trade? I know that you like Telfair, too.

GH: It was pretty clear that the Wolves weren't going to be able to win with KG, so I view the trade as a necessity. The nice thing about having Garnett is that trading him will help strengthen and accelerate our rebuilding phase. Compare the Wolves to a team like the Knicks. The Knicks seem to always be in "we want to win now" mode. Then they go out and suck and try to improve by overpaying another mediocre free agent. This will go on for them until they decide to start over and start losing their big contracts. When (if) they do this, they will have very little to work with and will basically have to start from scratch. If you think the Wolves are bad this year, wait until the Knicks do this! By contrast, the Wolves got 4 prospects (and some cap space) to help them restart. If would be naive to assume that all 4 of these players will turn into stars or even league-average players, but if 2 or 3 of them turn into decent players, we've done alright. Jefferson looks like the sure thing/future superstar/franchise player that we wanted to get out of the deal, Telfair looks like a passable player and Gomes could be a key role player. So right now, I think the trade is looking ok. The draft picks may be a few years off, but hopefully the Wolves will be a good team by then and the picks will help keep them good and fill any holes they have in the roster. Of course, with a team like this, things could change dramatically and I wouldn't want to judge too much just based on 21 games. I think the rest of the season will give us a better idea of which of these kids will step up and which will go down as footnotes in NBA history. Looking forward, what do you hope to see out of the Wolves by the time the season reaches the half way mark?

SBG: What I'd like to see from this team for the next twenty or so games is some of the young guys that are showing promise to get established minutes and develop their games. Craig Smith had another brilliant offensive game against Milwaukee on Saturday night and he played 31 minutes. He only got 20 minutes (and three points) the night before. On this team, he's shown enough that he needs to play a lot. That makes the front line pretty small -- Brewer, Smith, and BigAlJefferson is small, but so what? Smith yanked down 10 boards last night and BAJ had 15. Smith can play. If he drops about 10 pounds and adds a few feet to his jumper, he'll be a quality player for this team. I'd also like to see a better commitment to defense from this squad. I watched a play last night that just about drove me crazy. The Bucks ran a perimeter pick and roll and neither Wolves player took the guy with the ball. Instead, both players backed off and left the guy with the ball have an open 18 footer. Two points. That's just one play, but it's emblematic. The Wolves need to play defense better. That is learnable, that is coachable. I'm an Indiana guy from way back, but I'm not sold on Wittman. I wonder if he shouldn't stay home and convalesce his back for a while longer. I think I'd like to see Jerry Sichting coach about 20 games and find out. Also, I'd like to see the Wolves maintain the worst record in the league, even as they develop guys. Ping pong balls are the thing. Where are you on Wittman?

GH: I have a really hard time evaluating coaches, which is weird because I also consider basketball to be one of the sports where I think a good coach can make the most difference. Typically, I tend to look at team defense because I think it's better for evaluating coaches than team offense. A team can have one or two good players which dominate the offense and make it look good. Plus, most players tend to be more polished offensively than defensively when they get into the league. Defense is more of a team effort. Right now, the Wolves rank 29/30 in the league in defensive efficiency (ahead of only the poorly coached Knicks). However, the Wolves defense seems to be improving somewhat as they've allowed fewer than 100 points in 5 of the last 6 games. This could also be due to them slowing the pace, but I'll take it as a positive sign. It's not great team D, but it's moving in the right direction. The Wolves have also done a better job of not fouling. Over the first 11 games they were giving up 31.5 FTA, but over the last 11 games, that number has dropped to 25.0. These two things seem to suggest that the Wolves are at least moving in the right direction and so I'd say Witt is doing an ok job for now. I've read articles that say he and Sichting do a lot of communicating, so he's got the benefit of that as well. Mistakes like mishandling a pick and roll are common for a young team. With experience, they will hopefully stop making them. There are tons of small things like this that a young team should learn to do properly as they develop. Beyond that, they will need the current players to improve their skills and improve the team through free agency and drafting. What type of player would you like to see the Wolves draft? I've been a supporter of trying to get Derrick Rose, but Michael Beasley looks awfully good as well (and would be more likely to contribute immediately).

SBG: I'm not much of a college basketball fan and I haven't watched any games yet, but as the season progresses, I'll keep one eye on the top names on the board. The Wolves have drafted a pair of small shooting guards in McCants and Foye, so I definitely don't want that. I think the Wolves need a true point guard, so I'd be inclined to go after one, preferably someone with size, as Foye is pretty small for a 2. If Bill Walton is available, I'd go for him, too. The Wolves' needs are so great that I'd basically take the best player available, even if he's a power forward. The only caveat is that I'd shy away from a 2. With Foye, McCants, and Jaric, there's plenty of players there. Any last thoughts before we wrap this thing up?

GH: I don't follow much college ball either, but I've kept my on the prospects a little bit more this year with the situation that the Wolves are in. I would expect the Wolves to get the majority of their wins between the half-way and three-quarter marks of the season. By then, Foye will be healthy and the Wolves should be coming into their own a bit. In the last quarter of the season, we might see them start to tank a bit and in the next 20 games they won't be quite as good. I'm going to guess that the Wolves will be at 8 or 9 wins by the time we do this again at game 41.

This entry was posted by SBG on Wednesday, December 19th, 2007 at 2:36 am and is filed under Minnesota Timberwolves. It is one of 2465 entries by the author. We are no longer accepting Letters to the Editor on this post.