In the absence of baseball news…
Posted by ubelmann on Saturday, December 29th, 2007 at 8:35 am
I have to say, I'm somewhat surprised that Tom Brady is considered to be such a heavy favorite for the NFL MVP award. Tonight the Patriots (551 points) will likely surpass the 1998 Vikings (556 points) as the highest scoring team in NFL history. What do those two teams have in common? Randy Moss.
In the midst of all the Brady vs. Manning discussions the last few years, the Brady backers always claimed that Peyton had a better supporting cast, and that Brady could put up numbers if he got some receivers. Well, this year he got Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and his numbers shot way up. Does this prove much of anything other than that football statistics are highly context dependent? Probably not.
Nevertheless, let's say we choose to jump into the quagmire that is NFL statistics. Much has been made of Brady's phenomenal TD total. Last year, Tom Brady threw 24 touchdowns to non-Mosses, and 0 TDs to Randy Moss. This year, Tom Brady has thrown 27 touchdowns to non-Mosses, and 21 TDs to Randy Moss. From 2001 to 2006, the Patriots changed receivers annually, but Tom Brady's QB rating remained remarkably consistent--between 85.7 and 92.6 each year. Of course, this year, with Moss and Welker, Brady's QB rating has gone up to 117.2.
Obviously this isn't an especially decisive analysis, but it appears to me as if Randy Moss has been the key to the Patriots' offensive explosion and that Tom Brady, well, that Tom Brady is who we thought he was.
How difficult is it to rebuild in the NBA? From what I've seen, I'd say that the answer to that question is "very difficult." There's some variation, but on the whole, good teams one year tend to be good teams the next year and bad teams one year tend to be bad teams the next year. Or at least, that's how it seems to me.
Anyway, I think the rebuilding issue is an interesting one. To that end, I looked up some stats on NBA All-Stars. This probably isn't the best way to judge who the best 24 players are every year, but it seems like a fairly reasonable proxy. In the history of the NBA, there have been 56 All-Star Games and 1339 All-Star selections, for an average of about 24 selections per game. Amongst those 1339 selections, there have been only 357 distinct All-Stars, for an average of about 6.4 distinct All-Stars per season.
What does this mean for a rebuilding team? On average, each draft is going to produce six or seven All-Stars.
Now, as I'm sure we all realize, there's a difference between a franchise player and, say, Tom Gugliotta or Wally Szczerbiak. And conventional wisdom would have us believe that you want a franchise player to build your team around. Rather arbitrarily, if we define a franchise player to be someone who is a 5-or-more-time All-Star, there have been 111 franchise players in the last 56 seasons. Looking at the list of guys who have been an All-Star five or more times, this seems like a reasonable (though imperfect) categorization.
What does this mean for a rebuilding team? On average, each draft is going to produce about two franchise players, and there's probably a good deal of variance around that number.
So I guess it seems likely that with good draft position, the Wolves could assemble a nucleus of 2-3 All-Stars. But it doesn't seem especially likely to me--even with good draft position and good luck in the lottery--that they will find a franchise player in the next two or three drafts.
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In 2006, Randy Moss played 13 games for Da Raidahs. Team QB rating: 56.2 (Andrew Walter: 55.8; and Aaron Brooks: 61.7 took about 90 pct of the snaps)
That was a career low for Brooks, who was at his previous career low of 70.0 in 2005 with N.O.
In 2005, Moss played 16 games for Da Raidahs. Team QB rating: 76.0 (Kerry Collins: 77.3 in 15 games). Leading receiver was Jerry Porter (76 for 942). Moss had 60 for 1005 (8 TD).
Collins had been at 74.8 in 2004 for the Raiders (14 games) without Moss. Leading receiver in 2004 was Jerry Porter (64 for 998).
So just maybe it has something to do with the QB play
Re: the Wolves. It is mildly interesting to note that the Wolves have had zero picks in the top 2, one in the top 3 (Laettner!), two more at 4th (Donyell Marshall! and Marbury), two more at 5th (Rider, Garnett), 2 at 6th (Spencer, Wally), 3 at 7th (Longley, Foye, Brewer), 0 at 8th, 0 at 9th, 1 at 10th (Pooh Richardson).
Let's assume that the odds of a pick being a franchise player drop by, say, a quarter with every draft position, starting at about 60 pct (so, 60 pct, 45 pct, 33.75 pct, 25 pct, 19 pct, 14 pct, 11 pct, 8 pct, 6 pct, 4.5 pct for the top 10 spots). I admittedly pulled this out of my butt, so I don't know how well it maps to empirical reality league-wide.
anyway, by this model and given the Wolves draft history of opportunities in the top 10 (0,0,1,1,2,3,0,0,1), one would have expected about 1.69 franchise players in their draft history. That sounds about right, doesn't it, ubes?
just to check my back-of-envelope model, let's look at the incidence of "franchise player" results for the number 1 picks for 1993-2002, using the interocular pressure test rather than actually looking up the number of All Star appearances. I picked 2002 to give the players 5 years to establish track record. Obviously, this omits 2 more recent picks who are obvious franchise players (Dwight Howard in 2004 and King James in 2003).
the results: 6 franchise players (Yao, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Duncan, AI, Webber) out of 10 (Kwame Brown, Kandi, Joe Smith, Glenn Robinson). Interestingly, the Wolves have managed to dabble with half of those not making the good part of the list. How long before Kwame comes to town and the Big Dog comes out of retirement?
Too small a sample? Let's look at 1983-1992. 6 up (Shaq, Admiral, Daugherty, Ewing, Hakeem, Ralph Sampson -- even though he only made 4 ASGs), 4 down (Granmama, DC, Never Nervous Pervis, Danny Manning) and at least 2 of those "failures" were attributable to injuries (LJ and Manning). So 60 pct prob. of the top pick becoming a franchise player seems about right, all things considered.
One more decade: 1973-1982. 4 up (Worthy, Magic, David Thompson, Walton -- if you make the HOF you are a franchise player, damnit) and 6 "down" (Aguirre, Joe Barely, Mychal, Kent Benson, John Lucas, Dougie Collins), although Collins made 4 ASG and Aguirre made 3.
Although Walton made the HOF largely on the strength of his college career as it is not the NBA hall of fame, rather the basketball HOF. Same with David Thompson. And, was Worthy a franchise player? After all, he was third banana on his own team.
I agree with your substantive critique. But I was trying to stick with the spirit of ubes' rule o' thumb. If the guy is a perennial All Star and/or a legit HOFer, he's a yes for this exercise.
As for David Thompson, are you KIDDING ME? 5-time All Star, 2-time All-NBA 1st team (and an all-ABA 2nd team as a rookie), career scoring average of 22.7.
And he was THE Skywalker (don't give me any cr@p about Kenny Walker; he was a mediocre pro).
the only things keeping David Thompson from being counted in the inner circle of all-time greats were blowing out a knee and blowing out his nose during the dark, dark, "snow" days of the league.
What is the definition of "franchise player," again? The title seems rather nebulous to me. Was it someone who was the best player on their team at that time, or someone who was one of the best players in the league? Worthy shouldn't be penalized because he played on the same team as Magic and Kareem. Put him on any other team and his scoring average would've increased notably, no doubt. As would have his stature. And to go along with his 3 titles at UCLA, Walton was a league MVP and finals MVP before his body broke down. (For the record, I never liked "Big Red". Still don't.) David Thompson, along with Dr.J, was thee primary reason for the ABA-NBA merger, and the prototype for the high-flying, high-scoring guards that came after him. Unfortunately, due to his addictions, he was also a precursor to players like Michael Ray Richardson and Roy Tarpley among others. (For the record, Thompson was second only to Erving in a young E-6's eyes.)
I'm not picking bones, I just think it's an interesting topic.
Bonus points to brianS for pulling out some great old nicknames for Larry Johnson, Pervis Ellison, and especially, Joe Barely Cares Less.
I'll defend Walton. Before he learned how to talk (but not how to STFU), he was a great, great, brittle player.
At UCLA he was a phenomenal scorer, but an even better team player. In the NBA, he was the logical, evolutionary successor to Bill Russell. He had Russell's impact defensively, but was also a great, great passer and serious scoring threat.
Hell, he was the NBA MVP in 1977-78 despite playing only 58 games!!
Um, I defended him, too, doc.
As a player, anyway.
what, you didn't like his politics? his ponytail and wispy beard? that he was a deadhead? or his corporate re-styling in his adulthood?
It's the latter two that rankle. (Especially the Deadhead bit.
) I find it interesting that Walton (much like Bert Blyleven) had an exceedingly adversarial relationship with the media as a player before becoming "the enemy" in retirement.
Giants with first blood.
Do the Giants have anyone rushing the passer?
Patsies with a figgie. Huge victory for the G-fense.
I don't see this ending well for the G-men. They can't win a shootout with NE.
Jeff Feagles? Ray Guy wasn't available??
Sack. That's more like it, G-fense.
oops. illegal contact. damn.
on further review, that was a cr@ppy call.
Moss mebbe didn't like getting whacked. I'm not sure you really want to make Randy Moss mad.
**crickets**
Hey Ubes, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Moss to be handed the MVP award. A quick glance at the Associated Press NFL MVP awards shows no wide receivers. (Rice never won it? That's crazy.) And with few exceptions (Alan Page, Lawrence Taylor, and Mark Mosely (???!!!), unless you're an RB or QB, you ain't gettin' hardware. The only reason Brady wouldn't be the unanimous choice, is because of the near-universal hatred the Pats have acquired this year. And that would just be petty.
I'm not holding my breath either. I don't ever really expect the dead tree media to agree with me. Granted, the football writers are not the baseball writers, but twice in the last two years, the baseball writers have given MVP awards to players I don't even consider to be the most valuable player on their own team (Rollins this year and Morneau last year). I would expect that if I really paid attention to football, I'd have similar disagreements with those writers.
Who's The Boss? I love that he's got basically a lineman jersey on (sleeveless in the cold).
Good lord, Rich Eisen is terrible. What happened to him? Wasn't he decent when he was on Sportscenter?
NFL Network is getting one ginormous ad for itself tonight.
I didn't pay attention to the halftime show, but Bryant Gumbel seems rather awful as a play-by-play announcer. I don't know what it is exactly, but I'm not a fan.
...that he's a pompous @ss, maybe?
Collingsworth, on the other hand, is pretty good.
Collinsworth seems pretty solid.
I think my beef with Gumbel is more that he has no flow, and doesn't seem to vary his tone/volume very well with the game situations. On the pompous @ss scale, Gumbel seems to be far below the Brent Musberger/Joe Buck level.
On the pompous @ss scale, Gumbel seems to be far below the Brent Musberger/Joe Buck level.
Maybe not tonight, but the lifetime achievement award is named after Gumbel.
I guess there's a lot about Gumbel that I don't know.
When it comes to pomposity, Joe Buck takes a back seat to no one.
We are truly talking about the all-time elite pompous asses in all of the sports broadcasting world.
Bryant Gumbel seems rather awful as a play-by-play announcer
He's no Ann Curry.
+a lifetime of Todays
That sounds more like a curse or somethin'.
An oddly compelling game, considering it has no bearing whatsoever on the post-season.
It seems pretty analogous to when a pitcher has a no-hitter going at the end of an otherwise meaningless game, or when someone like Santana starts racking up a ton of strikeouts. Some of the best moments in sports have nothing to do with winning championships.
Fair enough. History is at stake. I guess I wouldn't be watching otherwise.
Ben Watson seems pretty awful.
Moss sucks. Cut him.
Or...not.
If at first you don't succeed, holy cow!
That was an awesome sequence. Brady definitely underthrew the ball the first time, but then showed us what happens if you can hit Moss in stride. That's a beautiful play when you can make it work.
And two records set on one play. 50th TD pass and 23rd TD reception. History.
That Rice had 22 in a 12 game season and wasn't league MVP? Inconceivable.
Who gets that ball for his trophy case?
Since 2001, Patriots 83-1 when leading in the fourth quarter. I'm thinking the Vikings record in those situations isn't quite that gaudy.
I really think that Moss is the MVP of the league, even though he won't win it. It's not just the 23 TDs and 1500 yards. It's how he demands attention from the defenses, making Wes Welker and everyone else enjoy single coverage all the time. How is it that everyone is always open? Moss is the answer.
16-0. Book it.
That was a pretty entertaining game, too. A bit of sloppy play here or there, but overall a very well-played game with lots of lead changes.
Here's hoping Larry Csonka just swallowed his Cuban cigar.
Larry Csonka memory. Near the end of his career, he was playing for the Giants. I forget who they were playing, but he carried off-tackle to the left and just crushed somebody in the course of gaining maybe 5 yards.
The color commentator was raving about how tough and hard to tackle Csonka was. Then comes the replay, which clearly shows Csonka winding up with an upper-cut under the would-be tackler's rib cage.
The commentators started to comment, then just stopped. You could just hear their jaws drop. They had no idea what to say in the face of such an obviously dirty play. Amazing.
of course, no penalty was called, and I'm pretty sure he was never fined. A different day.
Csonka was a tough son of a bitch. I hated him.
Me, too. I just remember him with chunks of Vikes on his uni and in his cleats after Super Bowl ??.
seems like I hated half the NFL as a kid. Hank f'ing Stram, the Marine Mammals, the Raiders, the Steelers, and especially the f'ing Cowboys.
seems like I hated half the NFL as a kid
Yeah? As an adult I'm up to around 90%. Maybe 95%.
I prefer to remember Zonk in his WFL heyday. Heh.