Rumor Mongering: Have the Twins Traded Johan Santana?
Posted by SBG on Tuesday, January 29th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
The Strib is reporting that someone else says that the Twins have traded Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
It's a pretty disappointing day for Twins fans.
Both packages being discussed by the Red Sox and Yankees during the winter meetings seemed more attractive to us.
Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra are big-time talents, but Gomez lacks plate discipline and might not fit in the top half of the lineup and an awful lot could go wrong before Guerra even sniffs the majors.
Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber are third starters at best and probably more like fourths.
It's a whole lot better than losing Santana for draft picks next winter, but we'd have taken a Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury package over this.
Let the gnashing of teeth begin.
Update: It's all over the wire now and I should add that this is pending a contract agreement between the Mets and Johan.
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Rape!!! RAPE!!!
You're supposed to yell "fire."
Everything is pending contract negotiations, correct?
That is correct.
If that is the deal, then it is disgusting. You either have to get a quality ML player, or an org's absolute top prospect, plus other pieces. That should be non-negotiable. A handful of fair to middlin' prospects shouldn't be enough to get it done.
Moss was always of the opinion that the Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson deal would have been attractive. Hell, Phil Hughes straight up would have been a better deal. Not really sure what went wrong here...
Hughes and Melky was the package I wanted.
Ditto. This feels like we got some blankets, beads, and a case of "firewater". Meanwhile, the Mets get Manhattan.
I could use a little of that firewater.
With Santana in the fold, they could very well get Manhattan.
I was crying for that since the negotiations started.
Is it really that important to have Santana in the NL that we turn our noses up on Hughes/Cabrera?
So...they wanted to keep Santana out of the AL that much?
I think what makes this hurt most is the absolute steal that the Orioles are going to get with Adam Jones + goodies.
Heads are going to explode at USSM when this hits the left coast.
That was the first thing that jumped into my mind. I'd rather have Adam Jones for Santana straight up than this lot. (Of course, Garza would still be here in that scenario, too).
Except that Johan had said he wouldn't go to Seattle so it was pretty much impossible. That was the big problem - Johan had a ton of leverage and I don't begrudge him at all for using it.
I don't begrudge Santana for using his leverage, I just wish he didn't have the leverage in the first place.
He definitely earned his leverage. If he hadn't signed a contract providing it to him (and then won the Cy Young ensuring it), he would have been an FA before now anyway.
I just mean, as a Twins fan, it would've been better for the team if TR could've signed him without the NTC. Nothing more than that. Santana has definitely earned his money.
Assuming the offer was still on the table as reported today, the Red Sox offer of Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson/Kalish is (err...was) far superior to the one the Twins accepted. I hope our valiant press asks Smith about this...
And I don't see any way for this deal to turn into the "win / win" deal that the Viola trade ended up being.
I'm choosing to believe that the rumored Sox and Yankee deals were no longer available. Otherwise, I might cry!
This is not good. In fact, it's bad. It's a bad return for Santana; the situation has not worked out.
There is a non-zero chance here that the Twins got no players who will ever be average major leaguers. Seriously. Gomez may very well never learn to hit, and Guerra is so far away and TINSTAPP and such, that it might really work out that way.
There's risk in any deal, but this deal strikes me as all risk, with very limited reward. What's Gomez's best case? Given that none of these guys have anything resembling pristine performance records, the risk is just too high.
Isn't Santana for one year plus two draft picks worth more than 4 middle-of-the-road prospects?
I'd rather have that at this point.
With all due respect to Robert Heinlein, the Mets just got as close to disproving TANSTAAFL as we might ever live to see.
I'm going to add that this would be a great time for Bud Selig to finally grow a pair as Commissioner.
you mean reject this deal on "best interests of baseball" grounds?
yeaaa! Where's Bowie Kuhn when you need him?
That's more or less what I was fishin' for, yeah. Then again, Carl's a most valued member of Bud's Politburo.
I hypothesized earlier today at Howard Sinker's blog that Bud probably feels that having Santana in New York is in the best interests of the game. NY and/or BOS in the World Series (or the Mets) leads to higher ratings and larger TV contracts, which leads to more money to be divvied to each team.
Invalidating this trade with the "best interests of baseball" clause has to be considered snark, right? I mean, it may not be great return, but there are legitimate reasons behind this trade, whether we agree with them or not.
And I don't think MLB or the networks harbor any illusions of baseball becoming a dominant TV ratings force in the modern age. National TV is a drop in the bucket compared to MLB's total revenue.
FOX and TBS have a seven year, $3 billion deal with MLB for national broadcast rights. ESPN has a separate deal. That's about $500 million a year. According to Seligula, that's about 10% of total revenues.
And those deals were made on the "dismal" TV ratings of recent years. Every October, there's gnashing of teeth about how bad the TV ratings are, no matter what markets are playing, but the ratings/markets just don't matter anymore for national TV.
I didn't intend it as snark. Certainly, yes, this trade is in the best interests of the game in terms of the current profit model. But the continual talent pillaging of mid-market teams by the Big Three isn't in the best interest of the game in terms of the overall fan base.
Look at it in terms of success. Is the game more successful because the Big Three make enough money to keep joke franchises like Florida and Pittsburgh afloat financially? Or would the game be on better footing, both in terms of fan loyalty and growth potential, if the teams like the Pirates and Marlins made - on their own - a mere 60% of what they receive in revenue sharing?
Interesting note from today's BP chat, at least if you're a Mets fan:
Terry Ryan's a pussy. He shouldn't have done this to Bill Smith.
I'm not sure what you're saying here.
I think banjo was just being a little snarky. He forgot that we are living in the post-snark age.
I just think it would have been better for Ryan to make this trade and take the PR hit.
I see what you're saying. While TR didn't take the PR hit on this one, BS did get to choose the package he wanted, so I think it could have gone either way. It kind of seems like Smith waited too long to make a decision, but who knows.
I agree on that. I've read a lot of rumors that both the Yankees and Red Sox backed off on their deals and this was what was left. Also, it sounded like Johan was putting pressure on the Twins to get this done soon.
Also, the guys the Twins got were the Mets' Nos. 2, 3, 4 and 7 prospects according to BA. I wouldn't consider this a fleecing. Although, there is plenty of risk here.
Of course, the Twins could quell a lot of public backlash by using the extra money saved to sign say Kenny Lofton and Livan Hernandez.
Of course, the Twins could quell a lot of public backlash by using the extra money saved to sign say Kenny Lofton and Livan Hernandez.
I'm not sure if this is a joke or not... ultimately I don't think the public backlash will be too great, and I don't think they are close enough to competing to necessitate such acquisitions. A veteran starter might be nice, though, so Scott Baker isn't the "ace." Even the post-Viola Twins had Allan Anderson...
Gammons on the deal:
I like that ESPN apparently only has 4 clips of Santana that they need to loop over and over again.
Boy, don't we look like a bunch of dumb hicks to New Yorkers now.
Gadzooks. This looks like the worst of the three reported offers on the table, as many others have also noted. What is it about Minnesota sports executives and their apparent neuroses about trading superstars - to east coast teams sporting inferior offers - just to get them out of the conference/league?
I'm now looking at the Garza/Young deal with an even-more jaundiced eye. What at one point was a curious trade in which it looked like Smith gave up too much - but one in which I was willing to wait and see - is now looking more like a fleecing of an out-matched GM. Put the sum-total of Smith's deals together, and you get a wildly-overpriced Craig Monroe, an average-at-best deal in Garza/Bartlett/Morlan for Young/Pridie, and now this poopoo platter for the best pitcher of the decade.
My interest in the 2008 Twins is waning. Fast.
Also, if this is what happens when I serve the cup of coffee, I'm never touching that stuff again.
So this is fun. Lets assume the deal goes through, and that the Twins start the year with a rotation of:
Baker
Bonser
Humber
Liriano
Slowey
And a bullpen consisting of at least these guys:
Crain
Guerrier
Nathan
Neshek
Reyes
Rincon
Career Starts for Rotation: 128 (Baker/Bonser-48, Liriano-20)
Career Starts for Bullpen: 75 (Reyes-40, Nathan-29)
Career Wins for Rotation: 43 (Baker leads with 17)
Career Wins for Bullpen: 131 (Only Neshek and Guerrier have fewer than Baker)
What I'm trying to illustrate here is that the Twins rotation will be a bit less experienced than their bullpen.
Wow, I thought SBG and ubelmann were the same guy! I got confused.
I love this trade. I was going to spend $7100 renewing my season tickets. Thank god they did this. I'm hurting for cash.
We get that a lot. Well, actually not.
Wow, I thought SBG and ubelmann were the same guy!
Funny, for a (brief) while I thought Stick was Mr. BatGirl.
Ba-dum-bumb.
*Barfs*
Let's try out the new New Guy-style "shout-outs."
GOOOMEZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!
MULLLLVEEEEEEEEEEEEEYYYY!!!!!
HUMMMMBERRRRRR!!!!!!!
GUERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
I suspect you'll get to use those a lot.
There's gonna be New Britain game-logs?
(I kid, I kid. Good to see that Phil Hartman avatar, NG. How's Tacoma?)
NBBo will be providing play-by-play from the bleachers -- hope he has a wifi link there!!!!
I might even pay for that. Or try to pirate it...
Tacoma is nice, much warmer than the alternative.
I think that HUMMMMMMMBERRRRRRRRRRR especially has a nice ring to it, but I sure would have enjoyed a nice round of JACOOOOOOOOOOBYYYYYYYY. Based on name alone, I think that MELLLLLLLKYYYYYYYY would have been the most fun to do.
Does anybody know where I can find the Twins' W-L record in games started by Santana?
It's listed in his Baseball Reference game logs (right below the actual list of games.)
Looks like:
17-16 -- 2007
27-7 -- 2006
24-9 -- 2005
24-10 -- 2004
Then it gets tougher to tell in 2003 and 2002 because he had some relief appearances mixed in there.
Thanks.
At least I'll get to listen to Johan on the radio out here...
Perhaps a trip to Shea++ to see him in action wearing blue.
Don't the Mets have their sights set on new digs? This signing will help. "The House That Johan Built."
A small local bank is putting up a little park.
I had visions of citizens running up to George Bailey and shouting, "What's this Zuzu's petals sh#t you're crackin' about?"
the whole town knows you've been giving money to Violet Bick
Right on. (Violet's a beautiful color.)
This conversation prolly wouldn't have happened at Gleemans. Man, I likes the WGOM.
Boys and girls and music. Why do they need gin?
A tonic for the troops...
It's a wonderful life. Small case.
Isn't that bank just about bank-rupt?
I was so depressed over this news I watched the T-Wolves lose by double digits to the lowly Bulls instead of face the fallout.
Someone please tell me how this makes the Twins better. Feel free to stretch the truth.
It lowers the average number on our jerseys.
Thanks, I needed that.
The Twns will never lose another game that Johan starts for them.